College players thread/ Draft Related thread

[Rakocevicftw]

It's very very close to being a set shot.

My bigger problem with it is the lack of arc. Shooting that way from NBA range is a huge question mark, to say the least.

But with Rubio, it's basically the only question mark.

[Frozen316]

Hmm, let's not forget that Thabeet is 22 years old

[Rakocevicftw]

Hmm, let's not forget that Thabeet is 22 years old

I'd be more pessimistic about that if he hadn't been improving every season. There's no reason to think that there isn't a ton of improvement yet to come.

[Frozen316]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Harden likes to shoot from the right side of the court, and drives left.

[revprodeji]

It's very very close to being a set shot.

My bigger problem with it is the lack of arc. Shooting that way from NBA range is a huge question mark, to say the least.

But with Rubio, it's basically the only question mark.

KG shoots flat, Wally/Reggie Miller shoot two handed, etc, etc...if it works tweak it but do not break it.

[revprodeji]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Harden likes to shoot from the right side of the court, and drives left.

The infamous Mike Miller issue.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/3/5/778471/we-found-it

[big3_8_19_21]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=294000023

I didn't watch it, but it sure appears that Collison got his ass kicked by Maynor.

[PeeDee]

Who guarded Maynor? Collison or Holiday? Both of them are lauded as defensive guards, but Maynor still had a pretty nice game against them, especialy considering how the rest of Maynor's team is meh.

[jpatrick]

They both did. Collison at first but after he got into foul trouble Holiday took him. There was about a five minute stretch in the second half where Holiday looked as good as he has all season. I still don't think he's a top 7 or 8 pick (our first rounder) this year if he comes out though. The combination of his lack of elite athleticsm combined with a lack of great range on the jumper give me too many questions for that high. But when Collison went out with fouls, Holiday played the point and showed a better handle than I expected and made some tough midrange shots and he does have a great feel for how to play.

Maynor would be a nice late first rounder if decide to go that route. Collison, ugh, he's too small, don't want.

[stop-n-pop]

Here's the big issue I have with Rubio: he's an unknown quantity. I'm sure we've all seen him play a game or two and there are plenty of nice things to see, but in terms of having a solid base of college stats to look at, figuring out how he'll transfer into the pro game is a nearly completely subjective crap shoot.

With guys like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, and Nick Calathes, you know what you're getting. You can narrow down situational differences and begin to conceptualize how they would fit into the Wolves 2009/10 lineup. With Rubio, that's a tough proposition. Nobody really has a handle on how Euro stats transfer to the NBA, least of all the Wolves.

Let's say that the Wolves land the 1st or 2nd pick and Rubio is available. Forget how you yourself feel about Rubio (to be honest, I'm kind of geeked about the kid) and ask yourself how confident you are in the front office's ability to properly weigh talent. It's a crap shoot. Rubio is a risky, risky pick anyway you look at it. It sounds nice to talk about him in the top 3, but with the injuries, short Euro season, age, lack of outside shooting, and short track record, in many ways he's almost like a kid coming out of high school. There are far more unknowns with this kid than there are with anyone else in the draft, Thabeet included. He's most certainly not a "one question about him" type of player. I'd argue that he's almost the opposite. Do you trust that the Wolves' front office can narrow some of these unknowns/questions down? I certainly don't.

On the other hand, I know what type of player Blake Griffin is. I have a pretty good idea how he would translate to the NBA. Ditto for Harden. Hell, even with raw guys like Derozan we can get a sense of the things they can and can't do from the stat sheet. Rubio....nothing.

This isn't to say that I don't think the Wolves should draft him, but I don't think it's a no brainer if he's available. There are a ton of unknowns with him and if the Wolves are lucky enough to have one of the top 2 picks in the draft (their highest ever) how do they go about dealing with the risk/reward balance that comes with a Rubio selection?

Personally, I think if they are in a position to draft Griffin they thank their lucky stars and work out the messy details later.

[revprodeji]

Here's the big issue I have with Rubio: he's an unknown quantity. I'm sure we've all seen him play a game or two and there are plenty of nice things to see, but in terms of having a solid base of college stats to look at, figuring out how he'll transfer into the pro game is a nearly completely subjective crap shoot.

With guys like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, and Nick Calathes, you know what you're getting. You can narrow down situational differences and begin to conceptualize how they would fit into the Wolves 2009/10 lineup. With Rubio, that's a tough proposition. Nobody really has a handle on how Euro stats transfer to the NBA, least of all the Wolves.

Let's say that the Wolves land the 1st or 2nd pick and Rubio is available. Forget how you yourself feel about Rubio (to be honest, I'm kind of geeked about the kid) and ask yourself how confident you are in the front office's ability to properly weigh talent. It's a crap shoot. Rubio is a risky, risky pick anyway you look at it. It sounds nice to talk about him in the top 3, but with the injuries, short Euro season, age, lack of outside shooting, and short track record, in many ways he's almost like a kid coming out of high school. There are far more unknowns with this kid than there are with anyone else in the draft, Thabeet included. He's most certainly not a "one question about him" type of player. I'd argue that he's almost the opposite. Do you trust that the Wolves' front office can narrow some of these unknowns/questions down? I certainly don't.

This isn't to say that I don't think the Wolves should draft him, but I don't think it's a no brainer if he's available. There are a ton of unknowns with him and if the Wolves are lucky enough to have one of the top 2 picks in the draft (their highest ever) how do they go about dealing with the risk/reward balance that comes with a Rubio selection?

.

I would have more confidence in the fact that Rubio has been playing against competition better than this year's NCAA since before most americans could drive. I think your measure of scouting here is too dependant on stats and that is the problem. You need to look at film, watch for tools and tendencies. Compare problems in past years to how he deals with them now. How does he handle distractions (*ie his injury) you need to look at the player and not the stats. If anything, the NCAA stats do not prove much because of the different conf and the weakness of talent this year. I think he is one of the better known talents in the draft. Considering the lack of top-end talent in the draft and you need to make a move for him.

I see it this way, we need to come away from this draft with at least one blue-chip back court player and the 3rd big man. Thebeast, Harden, Holiday, Griffin(*trade), Rubio, maybe Evans...I still think a trade might be the best bet.

[revprodeji]

Being that I am a Holiday rube I am going to rewatch the UCLA-VCU game.

[revprodeji]

hm, I can only find highlights. I thought archives were available?

[Devilzsidewalk]

re: Rubio

I want to take a risk, I don't want a known quantity as far a guy like Maynor who's has a satisfying number under the PPG column, I want known potential to be an elite floor general type PG who can play defense and Rubio has that. When you have a teenager playing with grown men and already looks like he belongs while showing flashes of brilliance, I have to believe that with age will come consistency and the low points will cease to exist while the high points will occur more often, thats the nature of the beast as far as NBA potential goes and I don't discount it with Rubio just because he's in Europe, I actually give him more credit for having more bright moments after seeing highly touted guys like Childress and Jennings go in there and look so weak.

And I also like the Spanish national team connection - Rudy, Calderon, both Gasols, Garbajosa pre-injury - they all seemed to be able to adapt to the NBA well and Rubio might have the most potential of any of them. Navarro didn't do well, but those undersized Euro guards never do well for obvious reasons.

On the surface, I can't find any glaring weaknesses in Rubio's game besides the 3 ball, but I don't want him chucking threes anyways, I want him to set the table. Regardless, the jumper will improve in time.

[stop-n-pop]

Here's the big issue I have with Rubio: he's an unknown quantity. I'm sure we've all seen him play a game or two and there are plenty of nice things to see, but in terms of having a solid base of college stats to look at, figuring out how he'll transfer into the pro game is a nearly completely subjective crap shoot.

With guys like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, and Nick Calathes, you know what you're getting. You can narrow down situational differences and begin to conceptualize how they would fit into the Wolves 2009/10 lineup. With Rubio, that's a tough proposition. Nobody really has a handle on how Euro stats transfer to the NBA, least of all the Wolves.

Let's say that the Wolves land the 1st or 2nd pick and Rubio is available. Forget how you yourself feel about Rubio (to be honest, I'm kind of geeked about the kid) and ask yourself how confident you are in the front office's ability to properly weigh talent. It's a crap shoot. Rubio is a risky, risky pick anyway you look at it. It sounds nice to talk about him in the top 3, but with the injuries, short Euro season, age, lack of outside shooting, and short track record, in many ways he's almost like a kid coming out of high school. There are far more unknowns with this kid than there are with anyone else in the draft, Thabeet included. He's most certainly not a "one question about him" type of player. I'd argue that he's almost the opposite. Do you trust that the Wolves' front office can narrow some of these unknowns/questions down? I certainly don't.

This isn't to say that I don't think the Wolves should draft him, but I don't think it's a no brainer if he's available. There are a ton of unknowns with him and if the Wolves are lucky enough to have one of the top 2 picks in the draft (their highest ever) how do they go about dealing with the risk/reward balance that comes with a Rubio selection?

.

I would have more confidence in the fact that Rubio has been playing against competition better than this year's NCAA since before most americans could drive. I think your measure of scouting here is too dependant on stats and that is the problem. You need to look at film, watch for tools and tendencies. Compare problems in past years to how he deals with them now. How does he handle distractions (*ie his injury) you need to look at the player and not the stats. If anything, the NCAA stats do not prove much because of the different conf and the weakness of talent this year. I think he is one of the better known talents in the draft. Considering the lack of top-end talent in the draft and you need to make a move for him.

I see it this way, we need to come away from this draft with at least one blue-chip back court player and the 3rd big man. Thebeast, Harden, Holiday, Griffin(*trade), Rubio, maybe Evans...I still think a trade might be the best bet.

I don't doubt that he's playing against solid talent or that there will need to be a considerable amount of leg work/film sessions with the guy, but he's still a relative unknown in terms of knowing how his numbers (and game) will translate to the NBA. There is a pretty hefty track record of how college stats play out in the pros and you can really narrow things down more than you can with the Euro League. You can even account for things like weak conferences, a shallow talent pool, etc.

I'll say it a bit clearer this time: I'd take Rubio over just about everyone but Griffin. That being said, it's just a geeky position based on little more than YouTube clips and the Olympics. He has some very nice defensive and passing stats in the EL but I have no idea how they transfer to the NBA. It's a big unknown even among NBA GM's. You have to have some sort of baseline metrics to weigh this player against that and even if you are going on the eyes of your scouts, there is really no bigger or smaller room for error than there is looking at a stat sheet. It's just another part of the spectrum and you hope that the Wolves take multiple things into account.

I focus on stats because I can't possibly watch all these players and I can't stand watching college ball. I'd be lying if I said we didn't base what we do on anything other than stats. I completely agree with you that I have more confidence in Rubio's play against superior competition. I see him being able to run the pick and roll like gangbusters and that he will be a good team defender. That being said, there's no real way to quantify this in terms of being able to reduce situational differences enough to say that he's anything other than a big unknown and a relative gamble for a top 3 pick. Big possible payout? Of course, but he's not a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination and he's far more risky than someone like James Harden. Stats are at least evenly transferable and exist outside of a scout's opinion. My concern here is more about the Wolves developing long term standards for player selection that can be tested, built upon, and improved. In the past, their standard seems to have been whoever McHale got around to seeing at the Dome come tourney time. It's more of a philosophical point than it is a specific one with Rubio. I just don't trust them that the decision to pick him would be based on anything useful.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'll say it a bit clearer this time: I'd take Rubio over just about everyone but Griffin. That being said, it's just a geeky position based on little more than YouTube clips and the Olympics.

Rubio was pretty sucky in the Olympics though, that was probably his biggest strike for me

[revprodeji]

SnP--what do you think of Holiday?

[revprodeji]

btw, SNP...to add to my point about the unknown. Most of these college kids have a year or 2 in college to look at. maybe some HS summer games.

Rubio has been on the map at least 4 years

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/The ... port-1068/

That is Dated August 2005...He made his debut in the ACB more than 3 years ago. He had the crazy 51 point game in the summer of 06...he was no mystery to anyone who follows basketball a year ago.

[stop-n-pop]

SnP--what do you think of Holiday?

From a stats perspective, he's terrible. Here's what we ran at mid season:

http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/2/5/743 ... t-board-pt

It's a forumla where I took the average weights of a few popular formulas (PER, Win Scores to name 2) and then put them into a possession-based setting and further weighted them according to the importance of each of the Four Factors. Here's how the guards played out:

Ty Lawson (19.942)
James Harden (19.4)
Stephen Curry (19.123)
Jeff Teague (18.126)
Nick Calathes (17.877)
Lee Cummard (16.88)
Eric Maynor (16.081)
Darren Collison (14.785)
Gerald Henderson (14.27)
Tyreke Evans (13.355)
Jonny Flynn (13.209)
Willie Warren (11.9)
Jrue Holiday (11.180)
A.J. Price (10.21)

I don't have enough years added up to say what is average, but I do know it's somewhere in the 12-14 range. I also don't have enough years added up to say what makes for a solid pro, but you start to see success in the 18-19 range and above. I'm working on running these numbers again and I'll have the final scores up on Hoopus after the tourney.

Now, from a perspective of just watching him I can see what some of the fuss is about, especially on defense. If the Wolves did take him, his value would be dependent on a few things: mostly where he's taken and what his real size is. If he has legit size with a big wing span and they can get a handle on how good his defensive motor is, I think he's the type of player you could pair with Foye. To his credit, he's improved some of his playmaking numbers over the course of the season. He finally has a positive ppr, he has a decent ast/to rate, and he rebounds his position well. Even with his shooting, he shoots above 50% from inside the line.

That being said, he runs into some compareative issues...especially with Steph Curry. I don't even think the two are in the same conversation about quality of players. Also, further down the line, there is another big point who can't shoot from outside: Tyreke Evans. Again, he fits the bill of the type of player that the team would want at the point next to Foye.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: f Curry is on the board, I don't know how they could take Holiday over him. If they're sitting there with the Heat pick and Evans and Holiday are both on the board, and they didn't take a point with the first pick and guys like Evan Turner and Cole Aldrich are off the board, they have a tough choice to make if Nick Calathes isn't available.

[stop-n-pop]

btw, SNP...to add to my point about the unknown. Most of these college kids have a year or 2 in college to look at. maybe some HS summer games.

Rubio has been on the map at least 4 years

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/The ... port-1068/

That is Dated August 2005...He made his debut in the ACB more than 3 years ago. He had the crazy 51 point game in the summer of 06...he was no mystery to anyone who follows basketball a year ago.

I think that's fair. My response is that even though he's been on the scene, I don't think anyone has a successful model of how to turn his stat sheet into a workable narrative about how well he'd play in the NBA. Do 1 year college players have a similar issue? Yep. Do I really wish more guys would stay for 2-3 years if only to reduce the amount of chance that comes with judging potential (Wake Forrest may have 3 guys test the potential risk/reward equation this year)? Definitely. However, there is still a significantly larger sample size to look at with NBA players and freshman numbers than there are with 18 year old Euro point guards who have been on the scene for a few years.

Also, even if NBA players come out in their sophomore, junior, or senior years, you can still look at their freshman season as a stand-alone event. Does this have a high degree of uncertainty? Yes, but it's less than what we have to work with when talking about EL players.