The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[Dat2U]

I really am not intrigued by hill that much. He has great athletic ability and good frame, but does not use all the time. I just had to say that. Dont see a good motor.

I just got done watching B. Griffin against Syracuse's zone defense and he still managed 30+ pts and 15 boards and a couple of NASTY dunks, one that he hit his head on the backboard on the way up (LOL)

I dont want to get my hopes up for him though.

I LOVE T WIll, and like someone else said, he DOES have a great first step and is getting better at his jump shot. He is a high flying scorer/playmaker and would be a good compliment next to gil.

Tyreke Evans is a good player but he should stay one more year, just to mature a little.

Rubio is still a guy that i like and would not mind drafting, for our roster or as trade bait. I know Gil needs the ball in his hands but sliding him to the 2 and having a guy like Rubio making easier for him to get the ball might work out. I just like the kid, fun to watch.

I'm not excited by Jordan Hill either. I see a solid role playing big in the NBA. Not someone worthy of a top five pick. Seems more like a high effort, energy guy than a stud prospect slash 20/10 PF waiting to happen. There's not much skill there and it doesn't appear to me that he's got much in the way of a cerebral game. He's yet another Pac-10 prospect that seems wildy overrated (James Harden being the other). Hill might be a fine choice as a late lottery/mid-first rounder but he's terribly overvalued as the #3 pick as he's currently listed on DX.
________

Blake Griffin has some Tim Duncan qualities in terms of quiet, intense leadership & discipline. There's no way I trade the #1 pick if were lucky enough to get it (unless it was for Kevin Durant). I can see Griffin being an all-star caliber forward for many years. Frankly he's got the athleticism, work ethic, maturity & passion to be a HOF'er. All needs is to add a 15-20 ft jumper to his repitoire.
________

Regarding Terrence Williams, I'm not that impressed with his ball-handling skills. He's very comparable to Dom McGuire in that aspect. He can handle the ball a bit and bring it up court, but don't expect him to create a shot off the dribble for himself or his teammates. It's not good enough for him to be a slasher at the next level thus waisting his excellent athleticism. Also, while he's done a better job of hitting his jumpers recently, he's not a great shooter.

Guys who aren't great shooters and can't create off the dribble aren't successful shooting guards at the next level. He might be effective as an undersized SF off the bench. He's got good court vision, a excellent rebounder for his size & can play the passing lanes pretty well on D but honestly I don't see him being a vast improvement over McGuire.

[Benjammin]

Dat, I don't disagree with you regarding Harden and Hill, however someone has to be picked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. after Griffin goes 1. If Rubio is in the draft he'll likely go 2 or 3. Thabeet will likely land in the top four I would think. After Griffin this is a weak draft at the top, it's as simple as that.

[Dat2U]

I also finally got a look at Rubio via some youtube footage. I actually came away pretty impressed. He can certainly find passing lanes that don't exist for other players. He'll definitely push tempo and create easy shots for others. I also came away with the observation that while he's not an elite athlete, he does have relatively quick feet. While he doesn't have that end-to-end blazing quickness of a young Jason Kidd, he's probably faster with the ball in his hands than not.

I would not be opposed to drafting AND keeping him. Guys with his skillset, at his age, aren't in the NBA draft every year. It would be a smallish backcourt with Gil but I tend to think Gil might be better suited to guarding SGs based on his length & strength. I also have disagreed with the notion that Gil needs to dominate the ball every possession to be effective. I think some folks have forgotten how much Hughes & Daniels dominated the rock while Gil played off the ball.

If we draft Rubio, we officially would become the Phoenix Suns of the East. Win 50+ plus games, score 120 with regularity, be the most exciting team on TV and lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs or whenever we played Cleveland. Getting an upgrade defensively at PF would probably become even a bigger necessity with such a smallish backcourt.

[Dat2U]

Dat, I don't disagree with you regarding Harden and Hill, however someone has to be picked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. after Griffin goes 1. If Rubio is in the draft he'll likely go 2 or 3. Thabeet will likely land in the top four I would think. After Griffin this is a weak draft at the top, it's as simple as that.

I think its a weak draft, if you got a top 8 pick and its not Griffin or Rubio. It's got some depth towards the mid-to-late first round though.

Griffin is lock at #1. Rubio is a lock at #2 if he comes out. It's scary after that. If Monroe comes out, I think he'll impress scouts in workouts with his skillset and IQ. He might go as high as #3 although he's not ready and really needs to return to school. Tyreke Evans will skyrocket and should be a top 6 pick IMO. I like Curry as a top 10 choice too. Blair also seems like a good choice around 15 or so.

But guys like Harden, Hill & Henderson are all overrated. They are all decent NBA prospects and potentially solid NBA contributors, just not high lottery picks. Jennings hasn't done much overseas, I don't see how that helps him become a top five choice either.

With any pick after Griffin & Rubio, teams will be reaching. Evans is the next best value to me as a mid-lottery. Curry shortly thereafter. If the Wiz can't there hands on Griffin or Rubio, they need to trade down or trade out.

[fishercob]

Dat, like you I wasn't too interested in Rubio until I watched 15-20 mins of him in youtube and started reading the scouting reports. I completely agree with your points on Hughes and AD -- and think that if the Wiz brass indeed think that Rubio is special, they have to draft if if he's there when they pick.

I'm also of similar mind on Harden, Hill and Henderson. I don't expect them to be impact players the way typical high lottery picks are. But given the Wiz's needs, I'm OK with that. Both Harden and Henderson looked miscast as lead gaurds on good teams -- but I think either would likely be good fits next to Gil -- as a fifth option on offense. Harden strikes me as the better passer and shooter and henderson as the better athlete and defender. But I still think they'd both thrive in that role.

So while it'll be somewhat of a bummer if the WIz pick 3-7, can't pull a trade, and just take Harden (for instance) outright, I still think he'd make them better.

I'm very intrigued by Evans and did not get to see as much of him play. Hopefully there's some good film on the net.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not excited by Jordan Hill either. I see a solid role playing big in the NBA. Not someone worthy of a top five pick. Seems more like a high effort, energy guy than a stud prospect slash 20/10 PF waiting to happen. There's not much skill there and it doesn't appear to me that he's got much in the way of a cerebral game. He's yet another Pac-10 prospect that seems wildy overrated (James Harden being the other). Hill might be a fine choice as a late lottery/mid-first rounder but he's terribly overvalued as the #3 pick as he's currently listed on DX.
________

Blake Griffin has some Tim Duncan qualities in terms of quiet, intense leadership & discipline. There's no way I trade the #1 pick if were lucky enough to get it (unless it was for Kevin Durant). I can see Griffin being an all-star caliber forward for many years. Frankly he's got the athleticism, work ethic, maturity & passion to be a HOF'er. All needs is to add a 15-20 ft jumper to his repitoire.
________

Regarding Terrence Williams, I'm not that impressed with his ball-handling skills. He's very comparable to Dom McGuire in that aspect. He can handle the ball a bit and bring it up court, but don't expect him to create a shot off the dribble for himself or his teammates. It's not good enough for him to be a slasher at the next level thus waisting his excellent athleticism. Also, while he's done a better job of hitting his jumpers recently, he's not a great shooter.

Guys who aren't great shooters and can't create off the dribble aren't successful shooting guards at the next level. He might be effective as an undersized SF off the bench. He's got good court vision, a excellent rebounder for his size & can play the passing lanes pretty well on D but honestly I don't see him being a vast improvement over McGuire.

Even knowing that Durant is a 28-30 ppg scorer I wouldn't even trade Griffin for him. I see HOF player with Griffin (and so's Durant, too, btw). The difference is that there are precious few stud PFs that are cerebral leaders. Blake could be Barkley/Malone/Stoudemire morphed into one but with a better personality than either of those guys.

(Dat, you couldn't go wrong adding Durant's talent ... I'm just intrigued with Griffin. I'm sick over Gil and Brendan coming back and the Wizards losing out on the lottery selection top pick.)

Dat, I think the Williams/McGuire comparison is pretty spot on but I wouldn't mind having two of those guys on my team. Both those guys are defenders who can distribute at either SG or SF. Both have huge upside IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The guy who's really underrated at PG is Ty Lawson. Other than his lack of size what's not to like about him?

Great assist guy with very few turnovers (almost a 5:1 assist/turnover ratio). Great pure shooter with three point range (hitting 49% from three). Not just a shooter, but a scoring PG as well. Extremely quick player.

Lawson should have a long, productive NBA career.

[Ruzious]

If people aren't convinced even after last night's game that Ty Lawson won't be an excellent NBA PG, they never will be - until they see him doing it in the NBA. With the added range on his jumper, he can do pretty much anything he wants to do - and there is nobody better in transition. I don't think anyone's talked about the Wiz picking him, but... I wouldn't mind it at all. Stop with the - he's too small nonsense. He's the same height as Chris Paul, and he's thicker and stronger. And he's got the same great speed and acceloration.

And my boy Green - doing his usual thing - exactly what the Wiz need as a 20-25 minute a game player - 3 3's, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 2 blocks - in 28 minutes. These 2 are on the best college team on the planet, and they're still underrated.

[Benjammin]

I just finished watching the you tube video posted on the draft board thread about Ricky. I liked him before but after seeing that I'm even more impressed. Things I liked seeing were that he often finished the break with a dunk, that he seems to have large hands and can pass off the dribble like John Stockton, and get into the lane like Steve Nash. He seems to compete on the defensive end and has some strength along with being 6-3, 6-4 perhaps. I would think that he would struggle against the really quick point guards and his shot is still a work in progress. If he is picked by the Wizards, I too think that Gil can defend 2 guards with his length and strength and that on the offensive end they could co-exist well. I understand Dat's concern that the Wizards would be the Suns east, but the challenge then would be to find a way to upgrade defensively through scheme and system, as well as finding more defense at the 4 and to a lesser extent the 3 positions.

[fishercob]

One other scenario occurred to me.

Say we pick third and Griff and Rubio are gone. If EG and co really think Thabeet has the makings of a dominant defensive center, I would not be averse to drafting him.

Having him as a backup to Haywood would probably give us the the best defensive center tandem in the league.

We'd then have to trade one of Blatche or McGee. I'd probably keep McGee and shift him to PF, which I think is a better spot for him in the long run. Blatche, at his age and contract, could fetch a lot in a trade (Blatche+Stevenson+Songaila for Hinrich or JRich both work in the checker).

Thabeet is also serious insurance against Haywood bolting in free agency. Though by drafting him, we run the risk of Haywodd taking that as a slight and being more inclined to leave.

Haywood/Thabeet
Jamison/McGee (need a vet backup if trading Blatche and Songaila)
Butler/McGuire
Hinrinch/Young
Gil/Critt

That has the makings of a nasty defensive team.

Drafting Thabeet isn't my first choice, but if he's really a young Mutombo, then this may not be a bad scenario.

[fugop]

These 2 are on the best college team on the planet, and they're still underrated.

Hah!

[dobrojim]

Per-40 Pace Adusted stats for Williams vs Evans:

Terrance Williams (21 years old, Big East stats) -- 12.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.7 steals, 0.9 blocks, 2.7 turnovers, 1.9 personal fouls

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ter ... liams-507/

Tyreke Evans (19 years old, Conf USA stats) 22.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.8 steals, 1.1 blocks, 4.8 turnovers, 3.1 personal fouls

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyr ... 110/stats/

Based on that particular comparison alone, IMO, as Evans matures and cuts down turnovers, he'd rate the far superior prospect because he can create his shot, get to the line, and also defend. My concern would be that he's young, turnover prone, and thinks like a shooter more than a passer. Better prospect than Williams, but for next year's Wizards I don't think he'd be the better fit, necessarily.

OTOH, Terrance Willams doesn't turn it over, doesn't foul, distributes very smartly, rebounds like a beast, and CAN play PG next to a shoot-first type like Gil right away. As strong as he is, Williams is ready for the NBA grind.

I'd be very happy with EITHER GUY on the Wizards.

I really like Williams mistake-free approach and his maturity, and the fact that he's done it against much tougher competion than Evans. Might be wrong but I'm thinking at 22 by draft night, he's a little more prepared than Evans.

I gotta admit that I could be real wrong on this one, because Evans is a baller.

the thing I like about Williams that I didn't listed in your stats is his 3 ball shooting
and outside shooting in general. I'd say he's ahead of Evans in that dept right now.

[dobrojim]

The guy who's really underrated at PG is Ty Lawson. Other than his lack of size what's not to like about him?

Great assist guy with very few turnovers (almost a 5:1 assist/turnover ratio). Great pure shooter with three point range (hitting 49% from three). Not just a shooter, but a scoring PG as well. Extremely quick player.

Lawson should have a long, productive NBA career.

good points

with his performance in tourney so far, he should move up into
the lotto at least, maybe even the top 6. He's been nothing short
of phenomenal. He's short. So is CP3.

And I like Green too (as a potential 2nd rounder if we were able to make
roster space)

[dobrojim]

If people aren't convinced even after last night's game that Ty Lawson won't be an excellent NBA PG, they never will be - until they see him doing it in the NBA. With the added range on his jumper, he can do pretty much anything he wants to do - and there is nobody better in transition. I don't think anyone's talked about the Wiz picking him, but... I wouldn't mind it at all. Stop with the - he's too small nonsense. He's the same height as Chris Paul, and he's thicker and stronger. And he's got the same great speed and acceloration.

And my boy Green - doing his usual thing - exactly what the Wiz need as a 20-25 minute a game player - 3 3's, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals, 2 blocks - in 28 minutes. These 2 are on the best college team on the planet, and they're still underrated.

didn't see this before my last post.

great thoughts Ruz.

Ty would be a solid pick

[dobrojim]

These 2 are on the best college team on the planet, and they're still underrated.

Hah!

do I detect the makings of a wager here?

UNC has amazing depth.

I still have not seen loo-a-vul play much live

[dobrojim]

I think Thabeet would be better trade bait for us that someone to keep.
OTOH, I suspect there are some GMs out there who would like McGee
as well. We could take our pick on who to keep although that would
be somewhat risky before Thabeet plays in the Assoc.

[Ruzious]

One other scenario occurred to me.

Say we pick third and Griff and Rubio are gone. If EG and co really think Thabeet has the makings of a dominant defensive center, I would not be averse to drafting him.

Having him as a backup to Haywood would probably give us the the best defensive center tandem in the league.

We'd then have to trade one of Blatche or McGee. I'd probably keep McGee and shift him to PF, which I think is a better spot for him in the long run. Blatche, at his age and contract, could fetch a lot in a trade (Blatche+Stevenson+Songaila for Hinrich or JRich both work in the checker).

Thabeet is also serious insurance against Haywood bolting in free agency. Though by drafting him, we run the risk of Haywodd taking that as a slight and being more inclined to leave.

Haywood/Thabeet
Jamison/McGee (need a vet backup if trading Blatche and Songaila)
Butler/McGuire
Hinrinch/Young
Gil/Critt

That has the makings of a nasty defensive team.

Drafting Thabeet isn't my first choice, but if he's really a young Mutombo, then this may not be a bad scenario.

I'm not totally against Thabeet - because you never complain about getting a dominating defensive player, but... he wouldn't be the best fit. You'd have to trade either Haywood and/or McGee, because all 3 are lacking offensively. And I doubt McGee will ever be a 4 - unless he plays with a really skilled offensive 5.

[fishercob]

Rightly or wrongly, I think many view Lawson as a comparable PG to Ray Felton. Both were QB's of incredibly fast-paced, high-powered Carolina teams. Both are super fast and quick, smallish, and improved their shooting their final year in school.

Felton hasn't turned out to be much -- I'd say he's a below average NBA pg. I don't know that I see Lawson as being much better.

An interesting aside is that Felton's first round teammates -- McCants, Sean May and Deron Williams -- err...Marvin Williams -- have all been pretty unspectacular pros so far as well. I wonder if that's a haribnger for Hansbrough, Ellington and Danny Green.

[barelyawake]

Haywood/Thabeet
Jamison/McGee (need a vet backup if trading Blatche and Songaila)
Butler/McGuire
Hinrinch/Young
Gil/Critt

I had a similar thought at one point, but couldn't work it through. I love how you've worked it. Now, you MLE a TOUGH, vet big (who has won something); get a guy like Ewing (or Zo) as asst coach; and a defensive head coach. I'd even think about trading Young out for a vet SG. But, I'm starting to think that McGee is our future PF (if we don't get Griffin).

[Ruzious]

quote="fishercob"]Rightly or wrongly, I think many view Lawson as a comparable PG to Ray Felton. Both were QB's of incredibly fast-paced, high-powered Carolina teams. Both are super fast and quick, smallish, and improved their shooting their final year in school.

Felton hasn't turned out to be much -- I'd say he's a below average NBA pg. I don't know that I see Lawson as being much better.

An interesting aside is that Felton's first round teammates -- McCants, Sean May and Deron Williams -- err...Marvin Williams -- have all been pretty unspectacular pros so far as well. I wonder if that's a haribnger for Hansbrough, Ellington and Danny Green.[/quote]
I think it's usually a mistake to base evaluations on who played at the same school. People did that about Dukees, but then Grant Hill and the B&B forwards plus Boozer came along, and people are still saying - well, Duke players usually don't make good pros...

But that is a valid comparison of Felton to Lawson. Felton is a poor-man's Lawson - a step behind him in pretty much everything. Shooting is not really close - Felton improved from a 38% shooter as a frosh to 45.5 as a junior - while Lawson started at 50% and is up to 53.8. Lawson is also a much better foul shooter. Lawson has been a much bigger scorer - getting 5 poins more per 40 minutes. The internet gods say Felton's release point is too low, but for some reason, that hasn't stopped him from... making shots. Felton was also much more turnover-prone. His assist/to ratio as a junior was 1.85, while Lawson's was 3.4. Felton is very quick and fast, but Lawson is a blur.