The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[AgentOvechkin08]

What Roy Williams said is what I kind of said WAY BACK in this thread.

He has that Lebron type aspect that can just take over a game. He showed some very good ball handling ability against north carolina and if he improved that and added a midrage jump shot, man he is going to be special.

I am praying hard that we win the lottery.

If we get #2 i would not mind grabbing rubio and KEEPING him. Unless someone offers an allstar SG UNDER 30 and in his prime.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Alright, I have a question now. A little while back Memphis made an awful, awful trade that made LA a contender. Did they make a deal with Stern, that they would make LA good, in exchange for getting the #1 pick this year?

[AgentOvechkin08]

LOL Zonker, that is funny....

and making me nervous

[Dat2U]

is Griffen a franchise player? Here is a guy who could be a top 10 player in the league. We need to win this lottery.

Roy Williams said:

North Carolina coach Roy Williams was certainly impressed by Blake Griffin's play on Sunday.

"He's a load," Williams said. "Please don't make this to be a comparison -- [but] he is LeBron James-like. He's got such a package of strength, explosiveness, touch, power. You know, it's hard to match that. In person, when you're sitting on that bench, it even looks more awesome than it does when I'm watching it on TV."

I think Roy Williams was referring to Griffin's explosiveness, touch & power around the basket. Much like LeBron, if Griffin attacks the-rack, your not blocking it, your getting the hell outta the way.

People who are stuck on Griffin's height and lack of an outside game ignore the fact that he's a elite level athlete. That's what seperates him from a guy like DeJuan Blair. Griffin has explosive moves and is lighting quick for a big. I wouldn't worry about his height unless he measures at 6-7 or less. Remember if he is 6-8 in socks, that means he'll be 6-9 to 6-9 1/2 in shoes.

I do think Griffin has top 10 potential. But he's gotta develop a more diverse skillset away from the basket. His faceup game is only in its developing stages. He can take slower bigs off the dribble and finish but there's no real J to go with it yet. He'll need that to really be a dominating offensive player on the next level.

I think Griffin can immediately come in and average a double/double b/c he'll be a monster on the boards and get tons of put backs and he's great at finishing around the basket. He may be a top ten rebounder off the bat.

[Dat2U]

What the heck happened to Monroe and Hill? They both looked so good at Christmastime (the 1 or 2 games I saw them play), and for them to be this far out of our lotto pick conversation during March madness is really disappointing- and we badly needed someone at the 4 position to show himself to be a potential impact player, cause dang it, everyone here knows we ain't gonna get the #1 pick.

Is there any possibility they could still be as good as they seemed back in december?

If Monroe comes out, he's probably the 3rd most talented guy in the class and w/o a doubt the 2nd best big man. Problem is, he's nowhere near ready. He needs to show that he's willing to assert more control than he did this year. I love his skillset and IQ but absolutely needs more seasoning. All signs point to him returning to G-Town which is the right move.

Jordan Hill is an athletic big who lacks skill and awareness. He can dominate against inferior talent with his length and mobility but he struggles for the most part against tougher and bigger opponents. I think he's going to dissapoint if he's drafted in the top 10. He's a role player to me. I keep thinking Josh Boone when I see him play.

[Ed Wood]

I would not go so far as to doom Hill do Boonedom, his lack of skill and awareness is not quite so dire as that. I agree, however, that the problem that I have with Hill is that, despite his athletic ability and high level of activity I simply don't believe that he's going to be more than a respectable offensive player in the NBA. I don't worry that he'll be a self-check like Boone but I don't think he's much more than a fourth option and very reliant on his cohorts to provide him with offensive opportunities. Maybe a Udonis Haslem-esque offensive contribution, though via slightly different means, with an upside of Hakeem Warrick and with a rebounding bonus.

I'm also with you on Monroe, though I worry that a combination of a very blah guard rotation and (at least in my opinion) a lack of commitment on the part of the Hoyas to make Monroe the focal point of their offense (as I think he should be) will just lead to further frustration and disappointment for the team as a whole, and for those who expect Greg to be a twenty point per game scorer. I'll probably end up mooning after John Henson and (forgive my weakness) Ryan Kelly next year anyway, though I like Monroe's game and hope he'll benefit from another year in the Big East.

[go'stags]

Hill reminds me of Chris Wilcox.

[pancakes3]

Hill is way more skilled offensively than chris wilcox. wilcox was nothing more than an athletic afterthought on that terps squad - the 5th option on the court whose only job is to play defense and run the fast break.

and as for Griffin his "top 10" level talent is equivalent to ROOKIE amare. Both rookie amare and griffin were/are good jumpers who are strong as strong as the day is long, and can finish with a dunk under almost any circumstance. However, neither had developed that consistent 18 footer and were poor free throw shooters (Griffin moreso). They were exceptional fast break finishers and their post moves were limited on relying on their athleticism usually in a spin move to get around their defender and going up to dunk the air out of the ball.

also griffin presents a logjam at PF which means that EJ drafts the no-brainer but has to get on the phones to move Songaila and/or blatche to free up some minutes. Either that or bury songaila and have Blatche, Griffin fight it out for AJ's scrap minutes. personally i'd rather let D-song and Blatche walk and get some value for them instead of letting them rot on the bench.

[Severn Hoos]

People who are stuck on Griffin's height and lack of an outside game ignore the fact that he's a elite level athlete. That's what seperates him from a guy like DeJuan Blair. Griffin has explosive moves and is lighting quick for a big. I wouldn't worry about his height unless he measures at 6-7 or less. Remember if he is 6-8 in socks, that means he'll be 6-9 to 6-9 1/2 in shoes.

I do think Griffin has top 10 potential. But he's gotta develop a more diverse skillset away from the basket. His faceup game is only in its developing stages. He can take slower bigs off the dribble and finish but there's no real J to go with it yet. He'll need that to really be a dominating offensive player on the next level.

I think Griffin can immediately come in and average a double/double b/c he'll be a monster on the boards and get tons of put backs and he's great at finishing around the basket. He may be a top ten rebounder off the bat.

Yep, I agree that Griffin has Top 10 player potential. That's why I've been on the bandwagon ever since I realized we'd be looking at a Top 5 pick and a share of the ping pong balls this year - and never doubted. Like CCJ, I like the undersized PFs with true post skills. Well, even if you're concerned about his height, he still has all those skills and then some - with ridiculous athletic ability to boot (as opposed to the floorbound versions like Millsap, Blair, etc.)

I think we may have an interesting "case study" over the next few years relating to the value of declaring early vs. going back to school. Griffin certainly could have declared last year, and would have been a lottery pick. However, most "experts" agreed that he would have been taken behind fellow Freshman Kevin Love, who plays the same position and with a not entirely dissimilar game, size, etc.

Now, many of you may know that Love is already the best (I believe?) offensive rebounder on a per-minute basis in the NBA. He's certainly no slouch. But who will have the better career between Love and Griffin? Who will be better next year? The year after that? 5 years from now?

My guess is that Griffin will be better by the middle of his second season in the NBA (Love's 3rd), after he deals with all of the 1st year adjustments that virtually every rookie deals with. If so, he will have "leapfrogged" Love, in the sense that after their Freshmen seasons in college, most had Love as the better prospect.

In that scenario, there could be a thousand reasons given for why Griffin became the better pro - natural talent, desire, work ethic, the teams the wound up on - but I assert that the extra year in college will have done more to accelerate Griffin's development than the extra year in the NBA that Love had. And I'd like to think that other players would see that and decide to get that extra year of seasoning before making the leap. I'm just not holding my breath that that will be the lesson taken away from Griffin's dominant season this year...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Very timely post about the extra year in college, Sev.

Wiz99 in another thread posted that Griffin reminds him of Beasley. Amazing what an extra year in college will do fo one's marquee value and game.

In the same conference last season as freshman in 2007-2008, Beasley was the more heralded player and put up the better stats.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Mic ... 605/stats/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bla ... 268/stats/

They went head-to-head last season, and posted is the link from DX's main scout:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Mar ... ffin-2453/

Marquee Matchup: Michael Beasley vs. Blake Griffin

by: Joseph Treutlein - Assistant Director of Scouting
January 13, 2008
Much of the hype in the NCAA this season has been around the extremely talented freshman class, so what better way to start off our Marquee Matchup series this season than with an extremely entertaining battle between two freshman power forwards who appear to be among the best players at their position in their class?

This article breaks down the matchup between Kansas State’s Michael Beasley and Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin, two very athletic and talented power forwards with great careers in front of them

.

If you read all of that you'll get to the bottom line of Beasley's 32 and 11 vs Griffin's 27 and 14 last season. Pretty even in the year that Beasley went #2 overall.

What I note out of everything is Griffin got a lot better as a sophomore in the NCAAs, while the perception is Beasley's not all that in the NBA.

What I believe is Beasley much more skilled as a scorer and a better shooter from 15 ft, while Griffin's more of a points in the paint type and a better rebounder. Griffin is the far better passer. Both will make all star teams down the line IMO.

I think Griffin is going to turn out to be the better player because of his work ethic and him being the more powerful of the two.

[Severn Hoos]

Good point CCJ - Beasley may be an even better comparison, since he was in the same conference, and there is no doubt at all that he was the higher rated prospect than Griffin this time last year. And I also have no doubt that Griffin will be a much better pro than Beasley. I agree that Griffin is much more of a post scorer (in the paint), and that will serve him better in the NBA than Beasley's face up jumpers and fast break scoring.

I'll extend the analogy even further - I think Griffin will be the better player by the end of his rookie season, even though Beasley will have had 2 years in the NBA at that point.

I can understand the financial aspect of leaving early - cash now vs. cash later, starting the FA clock, 1 more year of career income. But in terms of what's best for the player's development, guys who are "on the fence" are almost always better off going back for one more year.

[closg00]

Some interesting tidbits from Ford's chat

Carlos(NC): Is there a player getting buzz that you think will be a bust? Thanks Chad

Chad Ford: (1:56 PM ET ) Thabeet has a lot of elements that busts normally have. Jordan Hill scares me. So does James Johnson. He reminds me a little of the Joe Alexander craze last year.

Slick Watts, Seattle: Chad - seems like a deep PG draft, though weak everywhere else. Of all the PG's (Rubio, Lawson, Flynn, Teague, Calathes, Curry, etc) how would you rank them and who do you think has the highest ceiling?

Chad Ford: (1:33 PM ET ) Yes ... it's the strength of the draft. I think you could see 12 of them in the first round if they all declare. Here's my Top 12 PG prospects (note: it's still unclear which of these guys will actually be in the draft)

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Willie Warren
3.Brandon Jennings
4. Stephen Curry
5. Jonny Flynn
6. Eric Maynor
7. Ty Lawson
8. Jrue Holiday
9. Jeff Teague
10. Darren Collison
11. Patrick Mills
12. Nick Calathes

[pancakes3]

Willie Warren? Doubtful. He's more of a gunner than curry. I hope GM's overvalue him though. It'll leave Guys like Paddy Mills, Nick Calathes, and Jeff Teague who I think Ford is drastically underestimating free to drop to the 2nd round.

[dobrojim]

ty lawson 7th?

I don't think so

[TheSecretWeapon]

Yeah, Jim -- I tripped on that too. I know he's little, but if Lawson ends up going late teens or early 20s, I think whoever gets him will be happy with the value they get on that pick.

[dobrojim]

Yeah, Jim -- I tripped on that too. I know he's little, but if Lawson ends up going late teens or early 20s, I think whoever gets him will be happy with the value they get on that pick.

I would not be surprised if he went 7th overall (or better!). He's got CP3 potential.

Every time I see him (healthy) he just controls the game and does pretty
much what he wants to. He's definitely going to be at least moderately
successful at the NBA level.

The Felton comparison was a reasonable check on reality. But I honestly
think he'll be better. Felton is probably his floor.

[Dat2U]

Co-sign on Felton. I've come around on him. I've been very impressed with his tourney performance. He's shorter than Felton, but quicker with better PG instincts. He can get to anywhere he wants on the court and is strong enough to finish around the basket.

My list changes everyday but at the moment I'd rate the guards like this:

PGs

1. (1) Ricky Rubio
2. (4) Ty Lawson
3. (6) Eric Maynor
4. (9) Brandon Jennings
5. (13) Jonny Flynn
6. (15) Darren Collison
7. (16) Nick Calathes
8. (18) Patrick Mills

Combo Guards

1. (2) Tyreke Evans
2. (3) Stephen Curry
3. (10) Jeff Teague
4. (12) Willie Warren
5. (14) JRue Holiday

Shooting Guards

1. (5) Chase Budinger
2. (7) Gerald Henderson
3. (8) DeMar DeRozan
4. (11) James Harden
5. (17) Wayne Ellington
6. (19) Danny Green
7. (20) Terrence Williams

[dobrojim]

nice list...I'll quibble a little with your SG rankings though. I wouldn't
rank Bud that high or Williams that low.

you were right about Green earlier (that was you right?)
he'd be a very solid 2nd rnd pick

I did not get to see Maynor much but what I did see didn't impress
me that much mostly on the basis of his physical size. He just seemed
kinda scrawny. Hard to see how he's going to defend in the NBA.
That said, he developed a rep for playing with a lotta heart
and that goes a long way wrt defending although it hasn't
saved Juan Dixon

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Co-sign on Felton. I've come around on him. I've been very impressed with his tourney performance. He's shorter than Felton, but quicker with better PG instincts. He can get to anywhere he wants on the court and is strong enough to finish around the basket.

My list changes everyday but at the moment I'd rate the guards like this:

PGs

1. (1) Ricky Rubio
2. (4) Ty Lawson
3. (6) Eric Maynor
4. (9) Brandon Jennings
5. (13) Jonny Flynn
6. (15) Darren Collison
7. (16) Nick Calathes
8. (18) Patrick Mills

Combo Guards

1. (2) Tyreke Evans
2. (3) Stephen Curry
3. (10) Jeff Teague
4. (12) Willie Warren
5. (14) JRue Holiday

Shooting Guards

1. (5) Chase Budinger
2. (7) Gerald Henderson
3. (8) DeMar DeRozan
4. (11) James Harden
5. (17) Wayne Ellington
6. (19) Danny Green
7. (20) Terrence Williams

Dat, I like your list in general but don't have in my mind that clear a picture of where they stand.

Based on glimpses in the NCAAs, I'd bump Green farther up that list. DeRozan's more of a 3 IMO, but he's real good.

Nobody did more to hurt their stock than Harden. Henderson was just as bad in the tourney, but his bloodlines and athleticism will still have him drafted high.

The two guys I like where you have them rated are Lawson and Maynor (just based on big shots hit over time) . Both those guys can play.

The most underrated guy on the list besides Lawson is Steph Curry. That guy will be deadly in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

Willie Warren? Doubtful. He's more of a gunner than curry. I hope GM's overvalue him though. It'll leave Guys like Paddy Mills, Nick Calathes, and Jeff Teague who I think Ford is drastically underestimating free to drop to the 2nd round.

Yeah, it seems as if people put 2's as 1's in some cases only because they think they're too small to be 2's - rather than believing they actually having the skills to play 1.

I'm with Jim on Maynor - and I'm down on Collison for the same reason. Maynor is listed at 180, but I'd guess 170 is more like it. Jennings? I'm sure he's talented, but what's he done? He didn't even get 2 assists a game in Europe. At some point, production matters. It's a shame opposing GMs don't all have the same views as Chad Ford. It'd be so easy to go against them. Flynn and Mills are the 2 little speedsters I haven't seen.