Potential Lockout & Predictions (Simmons Article)

[killbuckner]

I believe that there was also a provision stating that you couldn't use the amnesty on a newly acquired player, likely to prohibit exactly this type of thing.

[nate33]

The problem isn't that the CBA is fundamentally flawed; the problem is simply that the economic collapse hit so quickly that team payrolls haven't had enough time to adjust. If we had a slower, more predicatable recession, teams would have been more prudent in signing mediocre players to expensive, long-term deals.

I think the easy solution is to have another Allan Houston rule. Just allow teams to expunge their worst salary off of the books for luxtax purposes. (They would still pay the player.) That would alleviate most of the short-term financial difficulties. The long term difficulties will take care of themselves as teams sign smaller contracts in the future.

[Dunkenstein]

Nate, most of the teams in real financial trouble (other than the Suns) are the small market teams who don't have team salaries that are luxury tax territory. So a tax amnesty would have zero effect on their financial woes.

[HammJ]

My idea is to implement a once-or-twice exception, per team and this summer only, to make any trade that can be agreed upon regardless of the salary cap rules. Let Phoenix trade Shaq to Dallas for two mules and a donkey to be named later. Allow the Lakers to deal Adam Morrison and $5M cash to any team with a spare box of pens laying around. Anything that can go, goes.

[Yme]

My idea is to implement a once-or-twice exception, per team and this summer only, to make any trade that can be agreed upon regardless of the salary cap rules. Let Phoenix trade Shaq to Dallas for two mules and a donkey to be named later. Allow the Lakers to deal Adam Morrison and $5M cash to any team with a spare box of pens laying around. Anything that can go, goes.

as a knicks fan i approve of this message.

[NetsForce]

I'd like to see the NBA season shortened and the number of teams in the league reduced... Too bad it's unlikely that either one of those events ever transpires...

[ranger001]

I'd suggest a smaller percentage of revenue going to the players, more revenue sharing, shorter years for guaranteed contracts and a tiered luxury tax. That would eliminate the need for contraction or amnesty on guaranteed contracts.

[Schad]

Professional sports (with the exception of the NFL, which is an incredible cash cow) is in worse financial shape than the economy as a whole partially because there is a large percentage of new-money guys whose wealth was derived from bubbles, and who often still have a significant portion of their wealth tied up in speculation or highly volatile assets.

These tend to be people who jump on board because they love the sport or the prestige of owning a team, which is great during the highs because they tend to be willing to spend, but can be calamitous during the lows...their willingness to lose money on the team vanishes when their real sources of income are suffering, even if they aren't in any real danger of going belly-up. Throw in a half-dozen all-season cheapskates and it's not a pretty situation.

That's why I can see a protracted and extremely bitter lockout and a radically revised CBA; more than at any point in recent memory, these guys seem pretty scared and even if the economy starts rebounds the sectors from which many of the owners derived their wealth (tech, media, real estate, entertainment) are going to lag significantly, as is advertising revenue. They have every interest in playing hardball this time, and while a hard cap and non- or partially-guaranteed contracts might not be the result, I expect that the players are going to take it on the chin this round...probably something close to a 50/50 split of BRI, escrow raised to or above 10%, a revamping of the exception system and half a season lost is probably the minimum it'll take to strike a deal.