Don't let the 10 million fool you....

[DWCP2]

I keep hearing about how the Pacers will have about 10 million in wiggle room to make moves this summer and are saving big bucks. I questioned this highly considering the amount of cap space and how Granger, Dunleavy, and Murphy combine for well over half of that, so I checked the 10 million story to the possible salary cap numbers and came to one conclusion.

Don't let the 10 million fool you!

That 10 million is how far the Pacers are from the Luxury Tax NOT under the cap. Some of us have figured that out already, but few post it.

But here's the hat trick too, the figure also assumes Daniels and Deiner will not be here in 2009-2010. Should both return at their current numbers, the Pacers are looking at no cap space at all.

Will they be under the luxury tax still? Yes! But not by much, just 2 million give or take.

So with that, I figured out some questions that will likely need to be addressed...

Jack or Daniels?

Jack can very easily command the full MLE from a team needing major help at both guard positions, and he and Daniels are in some ways the same player, just 3 inches shorter is Jack.

Jack, Ford, or Deiner? Who goes?

If the Pacers stick to draft a future at PG in this draft, it's doubtful they will be able to commit 18 million in salaries amongst four players at one position, 25 million plus if you include Tinsley. Will say this though, whoever goes will have value while whoever stays is going to be stuck looking over their shoulder with the future of the position as their backup.

How and where to deal Tinsley?

He's practically healthy having not played a minute of NBA basketball in soon to be 15 months, so his body has had time to heal, but few teams outside of a need for a veteran presence or high dollar ball clubs would take on a 7 million backup.

Thoughts on any of this?

[Scoot McGroot]

The luxury tax is set at $69.4 million for 09/10. Right now, expecting Daniels gone (since he'd cost $7.3 million and that's a team option), and Diener here (since he'd cost $1.74 million and that's his choice on a player option), the Pacers are at around $56 million in committed salaries.

That's $56 million in committed salaries to Murphy, Dunleavy, Granger, Ford, Tinsley, Foster, Rush, Diener, and Hibbert. Depending on where we draft this year, we're looking at around another $1.5-2 million committed to our 1st round pick. Thus, around $58 million (conservatively).

That leaves Jack, Daniels, Rasho, Baston, Stephen Graham, and Josh McRoberts as free agents. We'll likely let the first 3 walk and sign new deals that we don't want to pay, and we'll likely look to keep the last 2 as cheap roster filler that we might possibly continue to develop. Add around $1.8 million to the salary cap for those 2. Around $60 million committed for 12 guys. We'd have around $9 million in breathing room left under the luxury tax. Maybe $450 grand of that goes to our 2nd round pick if he makes the roster, or it'll likely go to some other training camp invitee (much like a Stephen Graham type player).

The MLE will be around $5-5.5 million starting salary. Look for Indy to either use the MLE, or re-sign Jarrett Jack. I'm not sure that we could financially decide to do both, unless we can get Jack in on a VERY low deal. Either way, I'd expect to see Jarrett Jack back next year. That would give us 13 players, with 2 empty roster spots, and around $3.5 million left to spend under the luxury tax (planning generously and giving Jarrett Jack the full MLE salary). We'd probably make some phone calls and try and look for some young PF's that might come cheap due to their current team's status with the luxury tax, like a Leon Powe or Glen Davis from the Celtics, or we could end up making some cheap signings like possibly a Shelden Williams or Rodney Carney type player. Maybe even a Morris Almond.

PF's like Brandon Bass and Paul Millsap are probably going to be the exact guys that are just too expensive to get into contact with.

If we were in this financial situation last year, we'd probably have been bigger players in the Carl Landry negotiations.

[DWCP2]

We can sign McRoberts and Graham to Bird Rights deals at approximately 1.8 million total.

[Dunthreevy]

Jarrett Jack will be an Indiana Pacer next season. Marquis Daniels will not. Travis Diener will be an Indiana Pacer next season. Jamaal Tinsley will not.

Those are my "bold" predictions. Not going into details on the hows and whys, I just think those 4 players future will go as such.

[DannyGranger]

Once Granger's new contract kicks in, we're not going to have as much money as people think we do. We're going to have to re-sign Jack. I think Graham and McRoberts will be resigned for the vet min. I hope we can trade Tinsley somehow this offseason.

[Scoot McGroot]

Once Granger's new contract kicks in, we're not going to have as much money as people think we do. We're going to have to re-sign Jack. I think Graham and McRoberts will be resigned for the vet min. I hope we can trade Tinsley somehow this offseason.

My post is with Granger's extension factored in.

[DWCP2]

Once Granger's new contract kicks in, we're not going to have as much money as people think we do. We're going to have to re-sign Jack. I think Graham and McRoberts will be resigned for the vet min. I hope we can trade Tinsley somehow this offseason.

As much as I think Granger is great against some opponents, there is great cause for concern with his decision making, passing, and shooting outside of the paint. I like him and think he can be a decent combo guard and the system fits him, but I also think there are two other beyond decent combo guards on the market in Ben Gordon and Raymond Felton, whom neither one would be a risk with the full MLE.

Given what Gordon went through last year, I think Jack is going to have some difficulties getting a good sized contract this summer.

[Scoot McGroot]

Uh...Ben Gordon and Jarret Jack are in very different worlds financially.


Jarrett Jack's contract negotiations are going to look like Delonte West's....both sides will discuss all summer, but when all is said and done, the financial market and economy will mean JJ will sign something under the MLE, but palatable to both sides.


Ben Gordon wanted close to a max contract. He refused anything else. He'll likely look to sign a $7-10 million per year contract with Chicago this offseason. He'll want more, but he'll end up signing a long-term deal that will work out for him.

[cdash]

Ben Gordon is pretty delusional in his contract demands.

[Scoot McGroot]

Yeah, but he'll still get above the MLE. Probably something around a 5 year, $40 million type contract is what he should be shooting for.