The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[nate33]

Brilliant breakdown Dat2U. EG really needs to put you on his scouting staff.

My only minor disagreement is Ty Lawson. I think he is getting a bit too hyped lately. He's good, but he can't change the reality that he is only 5-11 (if that). There aren't any above-average PG's who are that short. At best, he'll be a Jameer Nelson type of player. I could see drafting him in the 9-15 range, but it would be nuts to draft him in the 4-7 range. I'd definitely take Curry over him.

Nate Robinson forgives you.

Chris Paul is just freakish in skill level and athleticism, at about 6-0.

Some real effective under 6' guards are Brevin Knight, Jose Juan Barea, and DJ Augustin. I'd say Lawson's as good as any of these guys. I believe there are the rare exception of above average little men.

I do agree with you, nate, that 9-15 makes a bit more sense for where he's picked. However, he really would fit a need with the Wizards in light of Gilbert's knee issue and Mike James or Javaris Crittenton being the alternatives.

And I also agree nate that I'd take Curry over Lawson because I think Curry's got PG skills in addition to being a volume scorer.

I don't consider Nate Robinson to be above average, and guys like Barea, Augustin, Felton, Ford etc. are either below average starters or backups. Chris Paul is the clear exception to the rule, but he's a freak athlete with unbelievable vision. I suppose one can also argue that Jameer Nelson is at least an average starting-caliber PG.

I'm not trying to diss Lawson as if I think he'll be completely worthless. I just think his ceiling is that of an above-average backup or a below-average starter, with perhaps a chance at being an average starter at about Jameer Nelson's level.

I figure Curry will be at least as good as Jason Terry. And I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being as good as Mark Price.

[eltacoman]

i dont know about Lawson he might turn into a dee brown in the Pros i would feel more safe with Curry ...but if we dont land Blake then just trade for a vet we need to win now we got one or two years before our team starts to fall apart

[Ji]

Here is a GM talking to chad Ford about some of the prospects

Over the course of the past few months, I've talked to numerous NBA scouts and GMs looking for some consensus for our Top 100 and our Lottery Mock Draft. But the truth is, after you get done talking about Griffin and Rubio, no two GMs or scouts agree about any of the other prospects.

Some have Hasheem Thabeet as the No. 3 pick in the draft, while others have him in the late lottery. Some GMs love James Harden, while others think he'll be a bust. Some think Al-Farouq Aminu has great upside, while others worry that he is too much of a tweener.

Those varying opinions have made it incredibly hard to put together an accurate Top 100. So, to give you another perspective on the draft, I went to one of my best sources -- an NBA GM with a strong track record in the draft -- and asked for his breakdown.

"The problem with this draft is that most of the players have pretty large flaws that could hurt their productivity in the NBA," the GM told me. "I think a number of them could be really good, but a few of them are going to be busts. It's really like, 'What's your favorite color? There are some blue players, some red players and some green players. What do you like?'"

This is just one man's opinion on this year's draft. We didn't discuss every player, but here's what he thinks about a number of top NBA draft prospects.

Insider

What does this GM think about other top prospects, like Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Jennings? Insider

Potential Lottery Picks

Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
"He's special. He can come into the NBA and play right now. There are very few point guards you can say that about. I love him."

James Harden, SG, Arizona State
"I'm a fan. I think he does a lot of things really well. And I think he's a deceptive athlete. He's really intelligent. He's going to figure it out."

Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
"I wish you didn't start writing about him last month. We've had him in the top five. I thought he was a little bit of a secret. He isn't anymore. I wish he'd stay in school one more year to get stronger and more experience. But he'd go high if he comes out."

Willie Warren, G, Oklahoma
"That guy can really go. I think he could be a big-time scorer and distributor in the league. He reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups. He's strong, athletic and he can shoot it."

Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
"I'm a fan. You can't teach 7-foot-3. He'll be able to come in and be an immediate presence on the defensive end. Whether he ever gets it going on the offensive end ... that's the question."

Al-Farouq Aminu, F, Wake Forest
"I don't know what he is yet, but I really love the package of length and athleticism. He's got good skills. He needs to be on a running team. He can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. He's obviously got to work on that jumper, but if he gets that down, he could be special. I don't see him falling out of the top 10. But I would take Ed Davis first."

Jordan Hill, F, Arizona
"I don't know if I love him. But he's going to be scrappy, grab rebounds and play really hard. He's got great hands, rebounds out of his area and, from everything we can gather, he's a great kid. He's probably a top-six player."



Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
"He's a really talented kid, a sleeper. I think if he declares and gets into workouts, he moves into the top 10. He kind of reminds me of a more offensive-minded Joel Przybilla."

Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis
"I think he's a PG. He really needs the ball in his hands to be effective. I think he's got a good enough handle to play the point in our league. If he shot a little better, he'd be a pretty high lottery pick. But I think he's going to be really good."

DeMar DeRozan, G/F, USC
"He's got all the physical talent you could hope for and I think he proved he's a player late in the year. I think his unselfishness actually hurt him a little. He's a better player than most people think. He could go top five. I don't think he'll go past No. 12."

Greg Monroe, PF, Georgetown
"I'm not sure about him. I worry about his athleticism. I don't think he moves very well laterally. And I don't think he's got a great motor. He's really, really skilled, but I think he might have some problems in our league."

Earl Clark, F, Louisville
"He's a top-tier talent. I'm not sure if he'll get it, but if he does he's got the chance to be great."

Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
"He's terrific. He had a great run in the tournament, and I think he showed everyone that he has worked on his weaknesses and has become a complete player. He's really good."

Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
"He has great size, good speed. He's a good kid. Coaches love him. He's improved every year, which we love. If you're looking at a guy who could come in right now, he's the guy. I think we might have him ranked higher than most teams. I think he's one of the two or three best point guards in the draft."

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Inside

[Ruzious]

Brilliant breakdown Dat2U. EG really needs to put you on his scouting staff.

My only minor disagreement is Ty Lawson. I think he is getting a bit too hyped lately. He's good, but he can't change the reality that he is only 5-11 (if that). There aren't any above-average PG's who are that short. At best, he'll be a Jameer Nelson type of player. I could see drafting him in the 9-15 range, but it would be nuts to draft him in the 4-7 range. I'd definitely take Curry over him.

Nate Robinson forgives you.

Chris Paul is just freakish in skill level and athleticism, at about 6-0.

Some real effective under 6' guards are Brevin Knight, Jose Juan Barea, and DJ Augustin. I'd say Lawson's as good as any of these guys. I believe there are the rare exception of above average little men.

I do agree with you, nate, that 9-15 makes a bit more sense for where he's picked. However, he really would fit a need with the Wizards in light of Gilbert's knee issue and Mike James or Javaris Crittenton being the alternatives.

And I also agree nate that I'd take Curry over Lawson because I think Curry's got PG skills in addition to being a volume scorer.

I don't consider Nate Robinson to be above average, and guys like Barea, Augustin, Felton, Ford etc. are either below average starters or backups. Chris Paul is the clear exception to the rule, but he's a freak athlete with unbelievable vision. I suppose one can also argue that Jameer Nelson is at least an average starting-caliber PG.

I'm not trying to diss Lawson as if I think he'll be completely worthless. I just think his ceiling is that of an above-average backup or a below-average starter, with perhaps a chance at being an average starter at about Jameer Nelson's level.

I figure Curry will be at least as good as Jason Terry. And I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being as good as Mark Price.

Ford and Nelson are good starting point guards. And Augustin is just a rookie, but he will become a good starting PG. Felton would be very good if he could shoot - but that's not a height issue. And Nate Robinson would be very good if he was a real point guard - again, that's a skills issue. You make mistakes when you group PGs based mainly on their height - almost as bad as when people base players' potential on what school they played for or what color they are.

[W. Unseld]

Dat, why is Maynor considered undersized for a pg? I've seen him listed at 6'2" and 6'3" which I don't think is undersized for a pg, but I know I'm nitpicking b/c I'm a Richmonder. Speaking of Richmond, Ed Davis went to Benedictine the high school I went to and played for and apparently my scouting skills suck, b/c I didn't think he would make a big impact in his first year at UNC, much less be a pro prospect this year. Glad it's happening though. I don't know what I would do in his position, his dad former Wizard Terry Davis, obviously has some $$$ so he shouldn't be hurting on that end OTOH he's got his national championship ring and if people are writing about him in the top 5 or 10 it would be hard not to jump.

[Ruzious]

Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
"I wish you didn't start writing about him last month. We've had him in the top five. I thought he was a little bit of a secret. He isn't anymore. I wish he'd stay in school one more year to get stronger and more experience. But he'd go high if he comes out."

Thanks for posting that, Ji. Top 5 - are you kidding me. I just assumed he's staying in school. Yeah, he's very athletic for a big PF and he plays enthusiastically, but he hasn't shown any offensive skills, yet.

And Eric Maynor has great size? I don't think so.

[WizStorm]

Typical Chad Ford insider garbage. Love how the GM he quotes loves damn near everybody in the draft.

[yungal07]

Typical Chad Ford insider garbage. Love how the GM he quotes loves damn near everybody in the draft.

Exactly. It's like he was scared to say anything remotely negative about any player in the draft.

Dat2u's analysis >>>>>>>>>>>> that garbage.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dat, why is Maynor considered undersized for a pg? I've seen him listed at 6'2" and 6'3" which I don't think is undersized for a pg, but I know I'm nitpicking b/c I'm a Richmonder. Speaking of Richmond, Ed Davis went to Benedictine the high school I went to and played for and apparently my scouting skills suck, b/c I didn't think he would make a big impact in his first year at UNC, much less be a pro prospect this year. Glad it's happening though. I don't know what I would do in his position, his dad former Wizard Terry Davis, obviously has some $$$ so he shouldn't be hurting on that end OTOH he's got his national championship ring and if people are writing about him in the top 5 or 10 it would be hard not to jump.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Ed Davis is going to be drafted way too high and he'll underperform under NBA competition.

With NCAA teams keying on Hanstbrough and when you have Ellington, Green, and Lawson all on your team it's hard not to look good. I believe he'll be a solid pro, like Terry Davis, but not a lotto talent. Chris Wilcox made a ton of money being on the same team with Dixon, Blake, and Baxter; but isn't an elite talent.

I feel the same thing about Davis.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/pr ... erId=36668

He's not an effcient scorer. Good but not great rebounder. Good but not great shotblocker. Needs another year in the NCAAs IMO because he'll be eaten alive at PF in the pros.

[fishercob]

Marvin Williams is the comparison that comes to mind. Carolina wins a title behind some talented vets (was May, Felton, McCants, this time is Hansrough, Lawson and Ellington) and a diaper dandy gets drafted too early.

[Ruzious]

Marvin Williams is the comparison that comes to mind. Carolina wins a title behind some talented vets (was May, Felton, McCants, this time is Hansrough, Lawson and Ellington) and a diaper dandy gets drafted too early.

Good call. And our friend Chad insisted that Milwaukee should pick him number 1. Chris Paul who? Totally Bogut.

[Ji]

Are we sure we want blake Griffin?

http://brahsome.com/2009/04/07/ricky-ru ... ilthy-son/

[AgentOvechkin08]

if we get the #2 pick, its Rubio
# 1 is blake

Ive watched that video like 5 times and it never gets old, he has amazing court sense.

its funny with freebird and awesome when the song really gets going

[Rafael122]

If the Wizards draft him, its with the intent of him coming over next year. You can't justify picking him that high, and then stash him in Europe for 2 years.

So its a 2 man draft if Rubio comes out. It'd be fitting if we got the 3rd pick.

BTW, his buyout will roughly be $5 million.

[Zerocious]

I've been high on rubio for years, since he made his debut for the spanish league. I've been waiting for him to declare and was seriously disappointed to hear he signed a six year contract in spain back then.
the buy-out is really high. i think he is good, but he's also a rail and very young. he has freakish long arms and thus able to get the ball real close to the rim without the defense being able to get to it....in europe!
i don't think he'll have nearly the same impact here with the serious inside protection going on here. those little squeeze over the rim lay-ins will be swatted stuck between the rim and backboard non-stop.
his play making skills and his dwayne wade-esque maneuverability and ability to get to the rim are straight nasty, but he could be a major bust at the 2 slot. then again he could be a durant type player, although durant became the most talented player on the team the second he was drafted. i seriously hope for griffin because of his strenght, tempo and ability to listen and develop. does ricky even speak english? i'd say the 2 slot for ricky is to high, but time will tell. if the second pick is ours, i hope i'm wrong....

ot: i think this was my first post in this 99 page thread, dame!

[Silvie Lysandra]

Can Arenas and Rubio really coexist? At the very least, Arenas would *have* to move to SG, and it would be a defensive nightmare in the backcourt...I don't see how you have Arenas and Rubio on the same team.

[Ruzious]

Are we sure we want blake Griffin?

http://brahsome.com/2009/04/07/ricky-ru ... ilthy-son/

I'm not impressed at all. In most of those highlights, he's playing against YMCA level athletes. Mike James could look just as good against that quality of opposition. Also, those are hightlights - so they're supposedly his... highlight... so why do they pick moments where he's clearly violating NBA rules. He's palming the ball worse than Iverson on his worst day. Btw, I only got through the 1st minute or so - but I assume the rest was more o t' same - probably like an old Tamir Goodman video.

[keynote]

Are we sure we want blake Griffin?

http://brahsome.com/2009/04/07/ricky-ru ... ilthy-son/

I'm not impressed at all. In most of those highlights, he's playing against YMCA level athletes. Mike James could look just as good against that quality of opposition. Also, those are hightlights - so they're supposedly his... highlight... so why do they pick moments where he's clearly violating NBA rules. He's palming the ball worse than Iverson on his worst day. Btw, I only got through the 1st minute or so - but I assume the rest was more o t' same - probably like an old Tamir Goodman video.

Tamir Goodman? Ouch.

I was a little more impressed than that. He'll have to bulk up, sure, and his jumper was a little too close to a set-shot for my liking (well, if Ginobli can get one off, so can Rubio, I suppose). But I don't think the level of comp is as bad as you say. The reel also included footage from international play, including a nice clip where he faked the heck out of Jason Kidd.

I think he'll make some team happy. SAC and MIN would love to have him. OKC would obviously prefer BG, but they'd be a fun team to watch with Rubio, Durant and Green. Yeah, they have Westbrook, but he's more of a combo guard in my eyes.

I dunno if Rubio can coexist with Baron in LAC (and isn't Baron kinda hard to trade right now?), and MEM would have to make some decisions about their assortment young PGs (yet again).

I'm not sure that he'd play well alongside Gil, either. I'm still not convinced that Gil can effectively guard SGs defensively, and Rubio certainly doesn't have the bulk to step in at the 2. Offensively, I can't see them effectively sharing the ball, but I admit that it's hard to predict what will happen when we don't know the new coach's yet-to-be identified offensive scheme.

Either way, I agree that I'd be disappointed if Rubio were drafted and not brought over immediately.

[pancakes3]

Are we sure we want blake Griffin?

http://brahsome.com/2009/04/07/ricky-ru ... ilthy-son/

I'm not impressed at all. In most of those highlights, he's playing against YMCA level athletes. Mike James could look just as good against that quality of opposition. Also, those are hightlights - so they're supposedly his... highlight... so why do they pick moments where he's clearly violating NBA rules. He's palming the ball worse than Iverson on his worst day. Btw, I only got through the 1st minute or so - but I assume the rest was more o t' same - probably like an old Tamir Goodman video.

the plays are impressive until you realize half of them would not have been possible in the NBA. A lot of the 'oop passes or needle-threading passes would be picked off easily in the NBA. I'm not saying that Rubio would rack up 5TO/game, but you probably won't see a lot of these highlight reel passes until a couple of seasons in when he's more acclimated to how high, how hard, and how quickly he needs to throw the ball.

however, the talent was on display. nice passes, jumping the passing lanes, fast while dribbling the ball, proficient with his left hand, not necessarily lightning fast off the dribble but by changing pace and crossing over (nash-esque) he gets to the rim easily...

defensively, for those wondering how rubio would work in the backcourt with Arenas, think back to 2004/5 when we had a tall skinny point guard masking as a shooting guard (LH was a lot of things, but a shooter he was not). That worked out fairly well, and this time around, our hypothetical guard would have the sense to work the ball around on a 3-2 fast break instead of careening into the rim with reckless abandon.

honestly, i don't see Rubio panning out any worse than derrick rose who was a consensus #1 overall last season of a very deep draft. either rubio or griffin would make our team better instantly.

[keynote]

defensively, for those wondering how rubio would work in the backcourt with Arenas, think back to 2004/5 when we had a tall skinny point guard masking as a shooting guard (LH was a lot of things, but a shooter he was not). That worked out fairly well, and this time around, our hypothetical guard would have the sense to work the ball around on a 3-2 fast break instead of careening into the rim with reckless abandon.

honestly, i don't see Rubio panning out any worse than derrick rose who was a consensus #1 overall last season of a very deep draft. either rubio or griffin would make our team better instantly.

See, if Rubio had Hughes' athleticism, I'd be inclined to agree. But Hughes (once) had dunk-contest contestant quality ups, and was assigned to guard opposing SGs. With Rubio, I'd wager that Arenas would have to take those assignments more often than not. Once Rubio bulks up after a year or two, I could see him trying to defend NBA SGs. But not right now.

Offensively, Hughes was strictly a combo. He had some PG skills, but nothing like what Rubio demonstrates. As such, Hughes and Gil could play off each other, like a poor mans' Clyde+Pearl.
But Rubio will need (and deserve to have) the ball in his hands a lot more to flex that PG-centric basketball IQ of his. Gil would have an adjustment to make if he were asked to be more of a Ben Gordon-like SG. He certainly struggled in an off-the-ball role on the USA Basketball squad.

Still, with the right coach and offensive scheme in place, it might be worth the risk.