1. Forget about the Cleveland game.
Poor Celtic shooting,
absences of several key players,
and phenomenal Cavalier shooting all contributed to a lopsided loss.
2. Moving on the the NOW, let's assume the Celtics have been honest, and that Garnett and Powe will be returning from strains, and not more severe issue requiring surgery like cartilage damage or torn ligaments or tendons.
Doc's rotations are going to be altered dramatically come Saturday.
And who plays, versus who deserves to play, are not necessarily the same.
Doc will not only try to win games,
but will gear his rotations to who he thinks he hopes to be using
versus Cleveland and probably the Lakers.
Doc has been using Steph Marbury to back up Rajon Rondo.
Marbury, to be honest, has played wretchedly.
Steph's shooting 34% on 34-91, which is actually better than Gabe Pruitt's 30% on 28-92.
Eddie House should be the backup point guard,
unless Eddie is not hitting or can't handle the pressure of bringing the ball up.
Steph averages 3 Turnovers per 36 minutes compared to Eddie's 1.4 TO's per 36 minutes.
Factoring in 3 pointers, Eddie's True shooting % is 59, compared to 37% for Steph.
Steph should be the point guard of last resort.
I must confess I felt this way when Steph arrived,
but I suspected his performance would not match Eddie's.
PER wise, offensive vs. defensive,
Eddie is 17.3 - 13.7 for +3.6
Steph is 3.6 - 12.9 for -9.3, yes, that's NEGATIVE 9.3
With Ray Allen as the de facto backup small forward behind Paul Pierce,
there are about 24 minutes of SG time available.
Tony or Eddie deserves first crack at these minutes, depending on if Eddie can
actually be on the floor. Here again, Steph should be the last resort.
The big rotation will be altered dramatically if KG can play 32 mpg, and
Leon Powe is also available.
Out of 96 minutes, if KG and Perk use 62;
then that leaves 34, at least 15 of which should go to Leon Powe,
who is far more efficient than Davis or Moore (this is not even close,
Powe averages 1.58 points per shot compared to Davis' 1.19 points per shot.
Powe averages 15.5 points per 36 minutes,
Davis averages 11.3 points per 36 minutes,
Mikki Moore averages 8.7 points per 36 minutes.
Powe averages 10 rebounds per 36 minutes,
Davis averages 6.7 rebounds per 36 minutes,
Moore averages 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Scoring wise, rebound wise, shooting % wise, it's Powe.
Except, Powe may not work out against the Lakers or Cavs,
due to 6' 6"+ height.
Therefore, Davis and his jump shot will likely be called upon when Leon is not with his "A" game.
Some things to consider:
Points Per Shot (factors in shooting %, free throws and 3 pointers)
1.58 Leon Powe
1.56 Bill Walker
1.41 Paul Pierce
1.38 Ray Allen
1.36 Mikki Moore
1.35 Kendrick Perkins
1.27 Rajon Rondo
1.25 Tony Allen
1.24 Eddie House
1.21 Kevin Garnett
1.19 Glen Davis
1.19 Brian Scalabrine
0.93 Gabe Pruitt
0.77 Steph Marbury
True Shooting Percent (Factors in free throws and 3 pointers)
65.8 Bill Walker
62.5 Ray Allen
62.0 Mikki Moore
59.7 Eddie House
58.8 Kendrick Perkins
58.5 Leon Powe
58.1 Paul Pierce
56.3 Kevin Garnett
55.8 Brian Scalabrine
55.0 Rajon Rondo
53.1 Tony Allen
50.3 Glen Davis
42.5 Gabe Pruitt
37.4 Steph Marbury
Rebounds Per 36 Minutes
10.0 Leon Powe
09.9 Kevin Garnett
09.8 Kendrick Perkins
08.5 Mikki Moore
06.7 Glen Davis
05.7 Paul Pierce
05.5 Rajon Rondo
04.6 Bill Walker
04.3 Tony Allen
04.2 Gabe Pruitt
03.9 Eddie House
03.6 Brian Scalabrine
03.5 Ray Allen
02.4 Steph Marbury
Points Per 36 Minutes
19.5 Paul Pierce
18.3 Kevin Garnett
18.0 Ray Allen
17.0 Eddie House
15.5 Leon Powe
15.1 Bill Walker
14.4 Tony Allen
13.1 Rajon Rondo
11.3 Glen Davis
10.3 Kendrick Perkins
09.7 Brian Scalabrine
09.0 Gabe Pruitt
08.7 Mikki Moore
07.4 Steph Marbury
NET PER
(factors in everything, scoring, shooting, assists, rebounds, steals, TO's, fouls, for each player and THE PLAYER AT THE OPPOSING POSITION when they are on the floor)
+10.4 Kevin Garnett
+07.2 Ray Allen
+06.6 Paul Pierce
+05.4 Rajon Rondo
+04.5 Tony Allen
+03.6 Eddie House
+03.1 Leon Powe
-01.7 Kendrick Perkins
-04.8 Gabe Pruitt
-06.5 Glen Davis
-07.2 Bill Walker
-09.3 Steph Marbury
-10.9 Brian Scalabrine
-11.0 Mikki Moore
Doc Rivers Dilemma
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Doc Rivers Dilemma
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
So Steph should play sparingly? This is why stats only tell a part of the story and should never be used to paint the entire picture.
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I couldn`t disagree more about playing Eddie at PG instead of Marbury. Anybody who has been watching them play in the last few games knows that they play great together. Marbury has been playing well and Eddie is MUCH better at SG than at PG. I don`t care what statistics say sometimes it is nice to just watch the game and evaluate player by that...
Marbury-House combo is perfect!
Marbury-House combo is perfect!
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- Ed Pinkney
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^^^ I agree. I wouldn't say it is perfect but all you have to do is remember that Lindsay Hunter almost beat us by himself with House at the point. And who cares about Marbury's shooting percentage? He has been getting other people involved, running the second unit etc.
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
Only change... insert KG for BBD.....put BBD and Powe in the 2nd unit and Moore on the bench. TA gets Walkers minutes. Play the 1st round and run with this. Keep the Starbury/House combo.


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17 TITLES, ON TO #18.
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
- klemen4
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
Only change... insert KG for BBD.....put BBD and Powe in the 2nd unit and Moore on the bench. TA gets Walkers minutes. Play the 1st round and run with this. Keep the Starbury/House combo.
Simple as that yes....agree!
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
- bceltic55
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
Marbury did play horrible when he first got here, but now he is coming into his own. This is where stats lie.
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
Yeah, Marbury has *shot* terribly. He's looked pretty good in every other aspect of his game IMO.
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Re: Doc Rivers Dilemma
Jammer wrote:Steph averages 3 Turnovers per 36 minutes compared to Eddie's 1.4 TO's per 36 minutes.
Factoring in 3 pointers, Eddie's True shooting % is 59, compared to 37% for Steph.
Steph should be the point guard of last resort.
I must confess I felt this way when Steph arrived,
but I suspected his performance would not match Eddie's.
PER wise, offensive vs. defensive,
Eddie is 17.3 - 13.7 for +3.6
Steph is 3.6 - 12.9 for -9.3, yes, that's NEGATIVE 9.3
This is where stats tell a story that's misleading. The stat about Steph averaging 3 turnovers vs. 1.4 for Eddie, well the reason for that is because Eddie isn't a pg. Even if he does play "pg", he just brings the ball up and passes it off. Steph does much more ballhandling and takes more risks in terms of passing so of course he is going to average more turnovers. Eddie meanwhile shoots the ball a majority of the time when he catches it.
The other thing is the defensive PER. Yesterday, Marbury had to defend Lebron for a stretch and usually defends the toughest matchup when he and Eddie are in the game. So of course his stats are going to look worse because he is guarding much better players.
If everyone is healthy for the playoffs, our rotation should be the starters + Powe, Baby and 2 of House/Marbury/TA depending on matchups. Most of the time Marbury/House are going to get the nod, but against some matchups you can't have Marbury defending certain sgs. I don't want to see Mikki in there and Doc talking about a Moore/KG frontline made we want to barf. Last year we won because we were the toughest, most physical team. There's no way that we can be that this year if Mikki gets any significant minutes.