General (Non-Wiz) Draft Discussion

[nate33]

can we deal our pick before the lottery? if so, and if we were going to make a trade, we should.

There's no way any GM in this situation would consider it. There's way too much risk. Imagine if EG trades the pick for a mediocre return and then the pick turns out to be Griffin. EG would be crucified.

[pancakes3]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

also, John Wall is an impossibility. He's still in HS. Stern has that 1 year removed clause in place. he hasn't declared because he's legally prohibited. Plus i think rubio is a better prospect than wall right now anyway.

[cdouglas]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

also, John Wall is an impossibility. He's still in HS. Stern has that 1 year removed clause in place. he hasn't declared because he's legally prohibited. Plus i think rubio is a better prospect than wall right now anyway.

Shame on you! Washington will have the #1 pick and you want to give it up!

[Benjammin]

I feel like this is an episode of Deal or No Deal. You could have Blake Griffin in the briefcase, or it could be James Harden. The banker is offering you cap relief plus a top ten pick. What do you do?

[doclinkin]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later.

Depends on how you see the value of Griffin. If someone told you today the Wizards had a 1-in-5 chance at a championship you'd jump at it. With very few exceptions Championships are built around the bar none best player in a given draft. And the likelihood of having a 1-in-5 chance at a number one player thankfully doesn't come around all that often.

Now you could trade down and get a volume deal of lesser talents, even future draft picks. But platooning decent players rarely makes anything like the difference of a franchise calibre top talent. And I can't see that any other team would be willing to trade their top franchise player for that 1-in-5 chance, especially when they'd do jsut as well to wait & see who wins the pick and make their trade then.

Personally looking back over the past 10 years I can see only three number one picks that I would definitely take before picking the BFG (yes, benefit of hindsight adds a few lower picks to the list, but they weren't consensus number one talents). And if you told me in a given year I'd have a 1-in-5 chance of selecting any of them, I'd be pretty pleased with those odds.

Honestly though imagine what the fanbase & media would do to a team that traded away the pick that became LeBron James for instance. Basically you're saying you'd take the odds that led to a 20% chance you'd be fired, mocked, scorned, with reduced chances of being re-hired at any decent salary. All very well to look at the odds here on NerfGM, but you'd have to have testicles the size and appearance of Sam Cassell himself to pull the trigger on that trade.

[nate33]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

also, John Wall is an impossibility. He's still in HS. Stern has that 1 year removed clause in place. he hasn't declared because he's legally prohibited. Plus i think rubio is a better prospect than wall right now anyway.

Your argument makes perfect sense intellectually. Unfortunately, most fans in this world aren't all that intellectual. I'm just saying there's no way any GM does this if he wants to keep his job.

[Blazer_2458]

Only problem with this is that the "best" players in the 30 last drafts have not generally been picked 1st overall..

[dnk]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

also, John Wall is an impossibility. He's still in HS. Stern has that 1 year removed clause in place. he hasn't declared because he's legally prohibited. Plus i think rubio is a better prospect than wall right now anyway.

Your argument makes perfect sense intellectually. Unfortunately, most fans in this world aren't all that intellectual. I'm just saying there's no way any GM does this if he wants to keep his job.

I think you mean rationally. If we were machines, yes, trading before the lotto (if possible; I don't know when the trade deadline for the season is over) MIGHT be the best option in a purely rational, mathematical sense. Hedging our bets so we don't get stuck with a #3-#6, but still getting something pretty good in return for a relatively high possibility of getting the #1. But other teams are still not going to mortgage everything for the same reason that we might be willing to trade our pick now: because it's still up to chance. Everyone has the same information. If a fan that posted it on the internet thought this up, I'm sure someone in every organization has. If not, hey, it's here now. We wouldn't be trading the "promise of Griffin," we'd be trading the "chance for Griffin." Other teams would give us a value higher than we would get for a #3, but not even necessarily the value of a definite #2. Because it's not that. I say we hold on to the rights, hope for #1. If not, we can still trade the pick away. Teams might still be willing to trade up for a player they fall in love with, especially in a draft class like this. If they don't get Griffin, Rubio, or the player they fell in love with, they're stuck with a reach.

Additionally, I don't think OKC needs Griffin badly. They have Durant and Green to man the forward spots for the forseeable future. Obviously, Griffin seems like an upgrade over Green and they'd still pick BG if they got the #1, but I think they'd be more than happy picking up a solid SG or C prospect. Maybe even willing to trade up for Thabeet (or Evans, DeRozan, or somebody who shoots up draft boards as a workout warrior) if somehow we get stuck with the #3.

[Ed Wood]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

also, John Wall is an impossibility. He's still in HS. Stern has that 1 year removed clause in place. he hasn't declared because he's legally prohibited. Plus i think rubio is a better prospect than wall right now anyway.

You're not the only person who'd like management types in sports to be a little more daring but while we like to think that a general manager's primary responsibility is to do what he or she can to put the team in a position to win, and if it were than taking calculated risks would be a perfectly sensible thing to do, but first and foremost a manager has to be sure that his or her future employment is ensured. If Ernie were to pass on what ultimately turned out to be Blake Griffin he'd be absolutely pilloried, and his job may be put a risk, whereas if he passed on a later pick he might be praised for his cajones but he wouldn't be any more employed than he is now. Bill Simmons may call it the No Balls Association but it's hard to fault someone for wanting to know he's going to be able to go into work in the morning. Mathematically trading the pick may be a value conscious move, but for Ernie certainty has a much higher value.

[Ji]

Here in my opinion is what 2009-2010 draft would 10 years from now based on how the players pan out

1. Ricky Rubio-Multi All star-Mvp consideration-he is always on TNT,Espn,etc
2. Blake Griffin-Multi All star
3. Demar Derzoan-All star caliber player.
4. Hasheem Thabeeet-becomes a servicable offensive player and a all NBA defender
5. Tyreke Evans-Will be an All Star
6. Stephan Curry-Near All star caliber player
7. Brandon Jennings-starting point guard-Near All star caliber
8. Earl Clark-starting NBA small forward-versatile
9. James Harden-Solid player..NBA starter..long career.
10. Ty Lawson-NBA starter. Good player but definitely not Chris Paul
11. Jordan Hill-NBA starter..Gooden type player

other solid NBA starters

Chase Buddinger
Gerald Henderson
J Flynn
BJ Mullens
Sam Young
Jeff Teague

any thoughts?

[Benjammin]

No John Wall this year. It's back to a two player draft, assuming that Rubio even is in the draft.

[nate33]

No John Wall this year. It's back to a two player draft, assuming that Rubio even is in the draft.

Crap.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Yeah i heard Wall might be eligible where did you find out that he is out of the draft Benjammin?

edit: nevermind, found it on wiretap...lol

[Ji]

Here in my opinion is what 2009-2010 draft would 10 years from now based on how the players pan out

1. Ricky Rubio-Multi All star-Mvp consideration-he is always on TNT,Espn,etc
2. Blake Griffin-Multi All star
3. Demar Derzoan-All star caliber player.
4. Hasheem Thabeeet-becomes a servicable offensive player and a all NBA defender
5. Tyreke Evans-Will be an All Star
6. Stephan Curry-Near All star caliber player
7. Brandon Jennings-starting point guard-Near All star caliber
8. Earl Clark-starting NBA small forward-versatile
9. James Harden-Solid player..NBA starter..long career.
10. Ty Lawson-NBA starter. Good player but definitely not Chris Paul
11. Jordan Hill-NBA starter..Gooden type player

other solid NBA starters

Chase Buddinger
Gerald Henderson
J Flynn
BJ Mullens
Sam Young
Jeff Teague

any thoughts?

It would be fun if someone could come in and project stats for these players based on what their career year is going to look like.

[fishercob]

Here in my opinion is what 2009-2010 draft would 10 years from now based on how the players pan out

1. Ricky Rubio-Multi All star-Mvp consideration-he is always on TNT,Espn,etc
2. Blake Griffin-Multi All star
3. Demar Derzoan-All star caliber player.
4. Hasheem Thabeeet-becomes a servicable offensive player and a all NBA defender
5. Tyreke Evans-Will be an All Star
6. Stephan Curry-Near All star caliber player
7. Brandon Jennings-starting point guard-Near All star caliber
8. Earl Clark-starting NBA small forward-versatile
9. James Harden-Solid player..NBA starter..long career.
10. Ty Lawson-NBA starter. Good player but definitely not Chris Paul
11. Jordan Hill-NBA starter..Gooden type player

other solid NBA starters

Chase Buddinger
Gerald Henderson
J Flynn
BJ Mullens
Sam Young
Jeff Teague

any thoughts?

It would be fun if someone could come in and project stats for these players based on what their career year is going to look like.

Ji: Zero....point....zero.

[Severn Hoos]

expected value? mathematically speaking at the 2nd seed, our pick averages out to be the 3rd overall (2.979). as the third seed, either 3rd of 4th (3.407). Either way, the odds are stacked that we end up with a pick 2-4. Griffin may be a 1/5 possibility but in the 80% likely scenario that we don't grab him, i say we look to deal our pick now to someone more desperate for griffin so we can upgrade in other areas of our roster that needs improving. basically what i'm saying is that we'll get more value dealing the promise of griffin now than the rights to rubio/thabeet later. OKC sounds like a likely target since they need griffin badly and would do well to double their odds of landing themselves a respectable big man.

I look at this kind of like having an extra dollar in your pocket when you walk into the QT (Atlanta reference; 7-11 for you guys) on the day that the Powerball is north of $100 million. Mathematically speaking, your odds are longer than the payoff, so the "prudent" thing to do is to hold on to that dollar. But it's not like you're going to miss it or the Bean Burrito you'd spend it on at Taco Bell later on today. Sure, you might get marginally more utility out of the burrito, but the life-changing payoff of hitting the Powerball dwarfs the benefit of keeping the dollar or spending it on gum.

Buying $100 of Powerball tickets every week = foolish
Buying 1 Powerball ticket when it's $200 million and you have an extra buck handy = Why Not?

Always playing for the future and basing your long-term plan on winning the Lottery & high draft picks = foolish
Holding on to your one ticket at the chance for a franchise-changing player = Why Not?

[nate33]

I get your analogy SevernHoos, but it's a false one.

The problem with the Powerball lottery is that you KNOW going in that it's a bad gamble. The state makes a ton of money off of the powerball every year. The house always wins, ergo, the players always lose. A rational man should never gamble in the lottery as a serious investment. It's pure entertainment. That's it.

The NBA lottery is a serious investment. The Wizards actually have a 1 in 5 chance of landing a stud big man. Stud big men come along very rarely. A rational man would choose to participate in the draft lottery unless he could get very good compensation to turn down the opportunity.

Ultimately, it's impossible to determine whether trading the pick before the lottery is prudent or not. We can't know that until we know what the trade would actually be.

[LyricalRico]

The NBA lottery is a serious investment. The Wizards actually have a 1 in 5 chance of landing a stud big man. Stud big men come along very rarely. A rational man would choose to participate in the draft lottery unless he could get very good compensation to turn down the opportunity.

Not only that, but no team is going to give up what it will take to get a #1 overall pick until they know that they are in fact trading for the #1 overall pick. For example, Toronto would have a disaster on their hands if they traded Bosh now to the team with the greatest chance at winning the lottery only to end up at #4 on draft night. So they would be wise to wait and see who wins the lottery and then offer Bosh.

[MF23]

Well, looks like John Wall won't enter the draft this year. To bad, he definitley has some game. I would include his talent with others I think are the best in this draft.

[miller31time]

Well, looks like John Wall won't enter the draft this year. To bad, he definitley has some game. I would include his talent with others I think are the best in this draft.

You have to respect his decision, though. He's doing it because he promised it to his father who is now deceased.