Last Pre- Lotto Mock--Entire Draft--Updated 5/18

[babyjax13]

First Round:

1. Sacramento: Blake Griffin
Blake is the consensus number one, but I can see the Kings trading down to get Rubio and shed some salary (maybe Beno Udrih), or add a player like JaVale McGee.

2. Washington: Ricky Rubio
The only 'sure-fire' star left in the draft. He and Gilbert would have trouble co-existing in the back court (IMO). I can see them trading up to the number one in order to get an inside presence.

3. LA Clippers: Jordan Hill
The Clippers are thin at both power forward, and point guard. In this case I think that Hill would be a good fit for them--I could also see them trading down and getting a point guard instead.

4. Oklahoma City: James Harden
Really it comes down to two positions for OKC--shooting guard and center. I think that Thabeet is a nice player, but a 7-3 center that can't do anything on offense looks too similar to a DeSagana Diop pick. Harden is going to be a nice player, and I can see him fitting in well with Green, Durrant, and Westbrook already in the starting line.

5. Minnesota: Hasheem Thabeet
There are a lot of point guards later in the draft to help Minnesota, and I think with their lack of height at center Thabeet would be a good fit.

6. Memphis: Earl Clark
I think that in the case of Memphis trading down might actually be a good idea if there are no more power forwards left that would be seen as 'safe' picks, or that they could not get later in the draft (say 12-20). Clark can play power forward (ala Danny Granger), but whether or not he would be most effective there is questionable.

7. Golden State: Tyreke Evans
It has been batted around a lot whether Ellis is a good enough distributor to play point guard or not. With a tall guy like Evans to share ball handling abilities and defend taller guards that would be less in question.

8. New York: Brandon Jennings
Honestly I don't like the way that Jennings plays and I think he is going to be a bust, but New York could use a point guard to take over after Duhon leaves. Evans would be the ideal fit, but I don't see him going this low.

9. Toronto: DeMar Derozan
I think Derozan could be a good fit in Toronto. He will already have a lot of talented players, and will be about the best replacement for Shawn Marion Toronto can get in the draft.

10. Milwaukee: Stephan Curry
If Milwaukee looses Redd Curry is the perfect shooter to replace him, and if they loose Sessions he can be at worst a competent replacement. Curry is pretty much a lock to become a decent role player, which could be exactly what the Bucks need at this point in the draft.
Moved Up

11. New Jersey: Terence Williams
Williams seems like the kind of player that would fit well on a team that thinks it can contend. He gives them a good perimeter defender to put next to Harris. Curry would be a good fit to help spread the floor and give New Jersey a 3-point threat other than Carter and Dooling, but the question is what kind of player do you want to replace Carter in the next few years, and I think Williams would be a good fit (I am 50/50 on putting Curry at this spot).

12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson
Henderson is a good fit for a team like the Bobcats that is defense oriented, or rather a good fit for their coach, Larry Brown. He has some major flaws in his game, but what he does provide (athleticism and defense) are things that would compliment other players on the Bobcat's roster well.
Moved Down

13. Indiana: DeJuan Blair
Blair is a bit of a reach here, but a team like Indiana that is in need of a rebounder will have found their perfect match with Blair. He uses his strong frame to force opponents out of position, and then his long arms clean off the glass. He is one of those players in the mold of Elton Brand and Paul Millsap (not saying he will be as successful, but their is the possibility). I think that Blair is one of the safer picks in the draft and that he will become an excellent role player in the future.
Moved Down

14. Phoenix: Jonny Flynn
Flynn would thrive in an up-tempo system like Phoenix. I think he could step in immediately and take a lot of the play-making load off of Nash--in the process giving the Suns one more year to try and compete before blowing it all up.

15. Detroit: B.J. Mullens
I don't see a team like Detroit that does not have a clear future passing on a prospect like Mullens. He gives them size and even more athleticism in the front court. Next to Johnson and Stuckey he could give Detroit some promise for the future.. Mullens will thrive in Detroit if they can add a shooter or two, but he will also make them one of the better up-tempo teams as one of the few 7 footers that can run the floor and finish. I think he will be this year's JaVale McGee.

16. Chicago: James Johnson
Johnson looks like a pretty versatile player that will be able to get minutes in many situations. In Chicago he will have the duty of backing up both Deng and Tyrus Thomas, but if he develops better defensive skills and a perimeter jumpshot he could become a similar player to Travis Outlaw or Tayshuan Prince.

17. Philadelphia: Ty Lawson
Philadelphia will be looking for a player to replace Miller and be a competent backup right now. I had Jrue Holiday slated in at this position, but I think that with where Philadelphia is now Lawson would actually be one of the few players left in the draft that helps them to compete now.

18. Minnesota: Eric Maynor
The Wolves need a good point guard that can spread the floor on offense. Maynor looks like he would be the best fit for them (IMO), but they could go with several players at this point in the draft--who knows, maybe a guy like Brandon Jennings will slip down to them.
Moved Up

19. Atlanta: Jrue Holliday
Atlanta needs someone to groom to replace Mike Bibby. Holliday has a ton of potential and good make a good combo guard. He can pass and shoot, but he needs to work on his decision making, something he will have plenty of time to do in Atlanta.
Moved Down

20. Utah: Jeff Teague
Utah lacks a good backup point guard, and Teague would be the perfect fit behind Deron. He is a scorer, and could see some minutes at shooting guard if he is able to get into the lane and be a difference maker in his rookie year. I would like to see them pick up Austin Daye--but whether or not to draft a point guard appears to not be in question for the Jazz, the question is, "who?"
Moved Up

21. New Orleans: Patrick Mills
New Orleans could use a scoring backup to Paul. Pargo fit that role well, but with him gone Mills could be a perfect fit for New Orleans.
Moved Down

22. Dallas: Chase Buddinger
Chase would be a nice addition for the Mavs. He could eventually take over the starting duties at small forward or shooting gaurd, and provide a spark with his immense athleticism and good range on his jumper.

23. Sacramento: Darren Collison
Collison is the best point guard left at this point in the draft and could become a good complimentary piece in Sacramento's system.

24. Portland: Gani Lawal
Roy said that the only thing that Portland needed was a backup to LaMarcus Aldridge. I disagree with him, but in any case Lawal would fill that role and could become a key part of the team, so it is still a good pickup.

25. Oklahoma City: Sam Young
Oklahoma City could use some more gritty players off the bench, and I think that Young would be a good fit for them.

26. Chicago: Wayne Ellington
With the possible departure of Gordon in the off-season I think that the Bulls will be looking for the best shooting guard available to them who is ready to contribute now. Ellington could at least be a shooter off the bench for them.

27. Memphis: Tyler Hansbrough
We saw it with Millsap, we saw it with Gomes, and we might very well see it again with Hansbrough--an undersized power forward who is not well regarded by scouts, and ends up being one of the biggest steals of the draft.

28. Minnesota: Austin Daye
Earlier I asked someone how Daye drops to the 28th pick, and now I have it happening. I was wrong, I will admit it. Daye has great potential, and if he works out this could be an absolutely huge draft for Minnesota if it works out this way, but there are a lot of questions around Daye.

29. LA Lakers: Nick Cathelas
Big point guards seem to always be in style in LA. Nick has a great command of the tempo at the college level, and if he can translate that to the NBA he 'could' be a steal.

30. Cleveland: DaJuan Summers
Summers has great size, and could possibly be one of the more talented players in the bottom of the first round.

Second Round:

31. Sacramento: Victor Claver
Claver would be a first round pick if he played in America, but with this year's weak foreign class I think all the Over-seas players other than Rubio and Mills will drop to the second round.
Moved Up

32. Portland: Michael Washington
If they are lucky Portland picks up Chris Wilcox V.2

33. Washington: Marcus Thornton
Thornton should at least be able to eat into DeShawn Stevenson's minutes. He is a player with some upside, and could be a good role player in the future.

34. Denver: Sergio Llull
Llull is a fantastic player that is going to surprise a lot of people when he comes into the NBA. He has a fantastic jump shot and good court vision--he is similar to his teammate Ricky Rubio, but more athletic and raw. He could see time at both shooting guard and point guard in the NBA. Llull is by far the best point guard left at this point in the draft.
Moved Down

35. Memphis: Derrick Brown
Brown is extremely athletic, and could be a steal at this point in the draft if he improves his ball handling and 3-point shooting.

36. Detroit: Jermaine Taylor
I think that Taylor is one of the few players left at this point in the draft who has a pretty good potential to become a starter on a decent team.

37. San Antonio: Tyler Smith
Smith reminds me a bit of Josh Smith (not going to be nearly as good though).

38. Portland: Alade Aminu
Aminu us going to be a decent 2nd or 3rd string center in this league.

39. Detroit: Damion James
James looks like another guy who can become a good player if he extends his jumper and can hit the three with more consistency.

40. Charlotte: Danny Green
If Green is going to become a player in this league it is going to be in a similar way to Bruce Bowen. He needs to find something other than his shooting to become a great role player.

41. Milwaukee: Omri Casspi
Another upside pick, possibly the second or third best foreign prospect in this draft.

42. LA Lakers: Milan Macvan
A foreign version of Mark Madsen? That is what he sounds like to me.

43. Miami: Taj Gibson
Taj is another one of those raw players with good shot blocking abilities. He swats away 3 per game at the college level, and pulls down 9 rebounds.

44. Detroit: Dionte Christmas
Salim Stoudamire v.2? If he starts hitting his threes consistently and is a smart player he could turn into a decent player--but, I just don't see it.

45. Minnesota: Josh Heytvelt
Josh could be a Michael Doleac type of player if he really works at it, but likely he will not ever see a minute in the NBA.

46. Cleveland: Jeff Pendergraph
Another one of those solid-fundamental players that never really does anything to impress you, but also does nothing to make you think he sucks. Another guy that sort of compares to Michael Doleac (or Sean Marks).
Moved Up

47. Minnesota: Henk Norel
Norel is one of the better foreign prospects left at this point in the draft. He is already making an impact in the Euroleagues, so he could eventually come over and be a Luis Scola type impact player.

48. Phoenix: Lester Hudson
Ummm...28 8 and 4, guys with stats like that rarely go undrafted, and Hudson could actually be a major difference maker on a team like Phoenix.

49. Atlanta: Milenko Tepic
This is another one of the Euro's that really intrigues me. He has that same smooth skill set and size to play 3 or 4 positions, but he also has a solid jumper under him that could make him into a lethal player. I see him as the next Hedo Turkoglu.

50. Utah: Dante Cunningham
I really think that Cunningham is going to become a good role player in the NBA. At the power forward position is is quick, and smart--which make up for his below average size. If Cunningham plays with a lot of energy I would not be surprised to see him be considered one of the steals of the draft.

51. San Antonio: Luke Neville
You can't teach 7-2. The next Aaron Gray.

52. Indiana: Greivis Vasquez
Has great size for the point guard position and has put together some great games in college. There are, however, some serious flaws in his game (all of which can be fixed with two or 3 years in the NBA); namely consistency, and three-point shooting.

53. San Antonio: Vladamir Dasic
Dasic is going to be drafted as a defender if he comes in the the league this year, but likely he will stay over seas for a while until he develops his jump shot.

54. Charlotte: Artem Zabelin
Artem is this year's Yaroslav Korelev, except he might get picked in the right spot and pan out. He has great size, just needs to bulk up a bit (lot).

55. Portland: Tony Douglas
Douglas is a 6' 1" shooting guard. Maybe he can develop and become an Eddie House type player.
Moved Down

56. Portland: Jodie Meeks
Meeks is another one of those guys who could eventually turn into a 3-point shooting role player.

57. Phoenix: Nemanja Bjelica
This is the kind of player that always gets my attention, someone who is 6-8 or taller, has good ball handling skills, and plays defense. Bjelica could be the next Boris Diaw if he puts on some weight--otherwise he is Andrei Kirilenko with a jump shot and less (much less) help defense.. He is already one of the top players in the Eurocup, and Adriatic league despite only being 20; I expect him to get picked by a smart team late in the second round.

58. Boston: A.J. Price
A point guard with no point guard skills--he can shoot, but will his game translate to the NBA? I think not.
Moved Down

59. LA Lakers: Ricky Beaubois
There have been a lot of French players who have come to the NBA and made an impact--I don't think Beaubois will be one of them.
Moved Down

60. Miami: Jerel McNeal
He sucks, but everyone else left sucks more.

Italicized names indicate players that I *think* will be considered either
a) Steals in the draft
b) Guys that will have really good NBA careers
You will find a lot of this in the second round because of the nature of the draft.

Red type indicates that the player has a good chance of being a bust (again, IMO). I am not necessarily saying that a player will be a bust, just that there is a higher likely hood of them not producing than the players around them in the draft; you will not find any red font in the second round.

In from last Update:
Out from last update:

Additional Thoughts:
The center position appears to be extremely weak, so teams will be looking a lot at power forwards that have the height to play center if that is an immediate need. There are 3 players that I think will either be considered huge busts, or huge successes (no in between), DeMar Derozan, Hasheem Thabeet, and B.J. Mullens. Luke Neville and Alade Aminu could both end up high in the second round if a team really wants to get a center to develop.

A lot of talk revolves around the point guard position, and how good it is in this draft. There are several guys that will make a great NBA career for themselves, but this is how I would rank the "notable" prospects:

Ricky Rubio
Tyreke Evans
Stephan Curry
Jrue Holliday
Sergio Llull
Johny Flynn
Eric Maynor
Ty Lawson
Nick Calathes
Jeff Teague
Patrick Mills
Darren Collison

It is a pretty big list, and everyone is going to have a different opinion on how these guys will pan out, but I will guarantee now that at least 5 of them will become starting caliber point guards.

[djthesonicsfan]

Nice mock. Love the notSonics pick. What about Brandon Jennings?

[babyjax13]

I feel like a dummy, I completly forgot to put him in I'll have to fix it, but it won't change much overall.

[gswhoops]

I can't see Jennings falling past the Knicks - they need a PG badly, and Jennings is a great prospect.

[babyjax13]

If the Knicks are truly dedicated to Robinson and Duhon then it would make more sense to draft someone at another position. I think that the potential of Derozan would be more than enough to warrant New York taking him--but I am not a New York fan so I might be wrong. Looking at their draft thread though it looks like they might want to take Flynn...If I do another mock I might have to take that into consideration.

[RIPskaterdude]

As I've already said in another thread, Griffin is the #1 pick, no matter what team is picking. If the Kings get the #1 pick and really want Rubio, they can simply trade down to the #2 pick and get something extra for the team that is getting Griffin in return.

[TheOGJabroni]

If the Knicks are truly dedicated to Robinson and Duhon then it would make more sense to draft someone at another position. I think that the potential of Derozan would be more than enough to warrant New York taking him--but I am not a New York fan so I might be wrong. Looking at their draft thread though it looks like they might want to take Flynn...If I do another mock I might have to take that into consideration.

I'm not a fan of the Knicks either but from what I've heard they are fed up with Duhon and if Nate Robinson is running your team, you will stay in trouble.

[TheOGJabroni]

On the first round bubble: Sam Young, Marcus Thornton, Wayne Ellington, Jermaine Taylor, Omri Casspi.

This would be extremely shocking after the tourney he had. I see him as a late-lotto/early 20's pick.

[Gremz]

If Jennings can be had at #13, I can easily see the Pacers taking him and dealing Ford.

[Villanova1L]

I definitely don't see Lawson falling to the 9th pg taken (Rubio, Evans, Jennings, Flynn, Teague, Mills, Holiday, Maynor, all project to play at least a little PG).

I'd be SHOCKED. Why wouldn't the Jazz take him over Mills?

[Krapinsky]

I'd be SHOCKED. Why wouldn't the Jazz take him over Mills?

[babyjax13]

I just have never been all that impressed with Lawson when I have seen him play, and I think that he will not go as high as people think. After reading the RGM mock draft about Eric Maynor though I might have him rising a couple of spots and Maynor falling.

[Cammo101]

Nice mock. While there is stuff I disagree with, everything here is plausible and well thought out. Good job.

[babyjax13]

Thanks Cammo. Could you elaborate a little on what you disagree on?

I find the entire lead-up to the draft very entertaining and I like to hear different points of view regarding the prospects, so I would love to hear what you think.

[big3_8_19_21]

Pretty good draft, I like it top to bottom for the most part (mainly focusing on my Wolves).

Whether or not we go for Thabeet depends on what Pekovic is telling the front office about coming over in 2010. If he is coming, I'd be hesitant to invest the pick in Thabeet. Maybe take him and trade down, otherwise I'd also consider DeRozan at 5. I really like Maynor/Collison at 18/28. I'd have to heavily consider Lawson, and I would probably end up going with Lawson, but that's just personal preference. I'd be excited just to get a PG like Maynor at 18.

[BIRDMAN BIRDMAN]

No Dionte Christmas?

[vincecarter4pres]

I like Steph Curry, i think he has a bright future. I just don't see him as a good fit for the Nets. I think they go with James Johnson or maybe even Patrick Patterson, maybe even Blair(hope not).

[babyjax13]

No Dionte Christmas?

He reminds me too much of Salim Stoudamire--maybe it is a bit unfair, but I just don't think he has much of a chance of being an NBA player. He might make it into the second round mock later on--it was pretty late when I added it.

I like Steph Curry, i think he has a bright future. I just don't see him as a good fit for the Nets. I think they go with James Johnson or maybe even Patrick Patterson, maybe even Blair(hope not).

I can see them getting a power forward with that pick, but it sounds to me like New Jersey won't keep the pick anyway unless they get Derozan or Clark (I don't think either drops that far). Even if they don't trade the pick Curry would be down-right deadly on that team with Harris driving the lane, kick outs from Lopez, coming off of screens, etc. I think if they keep the pick the best thing to do is draft a guy who fits your team really well--I think Curry does that. Neither Johnson or Patterson strike me as difference makers; if Boone or Anderson can step it up then a power forward would have some trouble getting minutes anyway.

[babyjax13]

Pretty good draft, I like it top to bottom for the most part (mainly focusing on my Wolves).

Whether or not we go for Thabeet depends on what Pekovic is telling the front office about coming over in 2010. If he is coming, I'd be hesitant to invest the pick in Thabeet. Maybe take him and trade down, otherwise I'd also consider DeRozan at 5. I really like Maynor/Collison at 18/28. I'd have to heavily consider Lawson, and I would probably end up going with Lawson, but that's just personal preference. I'd be excited just to get a PG like Maynor at 18.

I don't know if Pekovic would really affect what the front office is planning for the draft this year. He is 6-10, so he really does not have the size to play center. I am not saying he couldn't, just that I think he is too redundant with Love and Jefferson--of course I have never seen him play, so I might be wrong.

[Joana]

I don't know if Pekovic would really affect what the front office is planning for the draft this year. He is 6-10, so he really does not have the size to play center.

Physically, he's very similar to Kendrick Perkins - in terms of height, body type, frame and wingspan. Does Perkins have the size to play center? He's a pure center.

I am not saying he couldn't, just that I think he is too redundant with Love and Jefferson--of course I have never seen him play, so I might be wrong.

Yeah, he is redundant, in my opinion, but because both him and Al Jefferson are bad defenders and Love, while solid, is not good enough to make up for two bad defenders in a 3 big men rotation.