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Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution

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Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#1 » by moofs » Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:06 pm

I was trying to figure out our odds in the series based on our odds for any given game, and ended up with the following post:

moofs wrote:
jhern87 wrote:Bottom line being, if Houston loses game 6 then the series goes back to Portland where odds favor Portland. And if they lose the series it would most definitely go down as a one of the biggest collapses in the history of their franchise. Where as if Portland loses, they get a pat on the back and are told they are young and have years and years of success in-front of them. That's the difference.


Man, I've been torn on whether odds favor Portland back in Portland or not. On the one hand, the refs. (I've been in the "Refs are horrible on both sides, i.e. S.O.S." camp for this series) On the other hand, even if Portland has figured us out and we only have a 35-45% chance of winning any given game now, doesn't that mean our odds of winning 1 out of 3 are still pretty good, in spite of the fact that 2 of them are on the road? I'd like to think so (and am sure you wouldn't. HAH! RETURN NIGHTMARES!! :cheesygrin: ).

edit:
p.s. I ran it through a binomial distribution, and for 35% chance of winning any given game after going up 3-1, we have a 44% chance at the series. For a 45% chance on any game, we have a 40% chance of winning the series.

p.p.s. I got a C- in probability over half a decade ago. The stats above probably mean that we have either a 56 or 60% chance.


Thing is, I'm almost positive that my calculations are wrong, so if anyone knows how to do this, could you figure it for both 35 and 45% chance of winning 1 game out of 3? Thanks
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#2 » by TMU » Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:08 pm

Prior to Game 5
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + [P(losing Game 5) x P(winning Game 6)] + [P(losing Game 5) x P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=3) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) + (0.35)((0.65)^2) = 0.725

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=3) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) + (0.45)((0.55)^2) = 0.834

After Game 5
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + [P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=2) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) = 0.578

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=2) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) = 0.698
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#3 » by BaYBaller » Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:30 pm

You forgot to divide by the "Artest" quotient and factor in the "Brooks" standard deviation.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#4 » by moofs » Fri May 1, 2009 12:11 am

Divide? I thought with Artest you ended up with:

IF (ARTEST) P(GAME) = P(GAME) * P(ARTEST)
WHERE P(ARTEST) = RAND(0, 1)

Oh, and SD(BROOKS) ~= SD(ALSTON), so I didn't bother.

<rant>I want to know why it is that mathematicians still have this notion that their equations all have to be drawn out of convoluted Greek characters. I guess it makes sense if you HAVE to draw your equations on a chalkboard, but they're basically just representing functions when you get down to it. I'd have understood my last 2 years of math 400% better if it was just written down in a way that made sense. Prob/Stats hurts my head.</rant>
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#5 » by stockmarketgod » Fri May 1, 2009 12:25 am

Artest + Brooks = X

X + Many Shots = Lose Game

Yao + Scola = Y

Y- Many Shots = Lose Game

Y+ Many Shots = WIN GAME
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#6 » by spolgar » Fri May 1, 2009 12:53 am

Re Moofs:

<rant>I want to know why it is that mathematicians still have this notion that their equations all have to be drawn out of convoluted Greek characters. I guess it makes sense if you HAVE to draw your equations on a chalkboard, but they're basically just representing functions when you get down to it. I'd have understood my last 2 years of math 400% better if it was just written down in a way that made sense. Prob/Stats hurts my head.</rant>

a) Tradition. Our mathematics are of Hellenistic origins. Most mathematicians had to go through Euclids Elements in form or the other. Even translations kept the notation for the sake of historic significance.

b) You want to use different scripts for different things of significance. You use the normal english letters f,g,h etc for functions. Some use c for constants in some traditions of math, especially the more beginner stuff, but most of the time, you use the greek letters for alpha, beta, gamma... etc for coefficients/scalars in algebra and analysis. In a book, it's easier to tell things apart, especially if you don't have the luxury of color. Down the road, the use of different scripts for different types of variables became standard because it just made stuff easier to read.

My 2 cents.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#7 » by tha_rock220 » Fri May 1, 2009 3:46 am

T-Mac United wrote:Prior to Game 5
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + [P(losing Game 5) x P(winning Game 6)] + [P(losing Game 5) x P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=3) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) + (0.35)((0.65)^2) = 0.725

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=3) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) + (0.45)((0.55)^2) = 0.834

After Game 5
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + [P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=2) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) = 0.578

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=2) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) = 0.698


Oh give it a rest. You act like this is a hard calculation. The Rockets only have to win a single game so you you don't even have to add multiple scenarios.:wink: .
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#8 » by TMU » Fri May 1, 2009 3:56 am

tha_rock220 wrote:
T-Mac United wrote:Prior to Game 5
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + [P(losing Game 5) x P(winning Game 6)] + [P(losing Game 5) x P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=3) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) + (0.35)((0.65)^2) = 0.725

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=3) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) + (0.45)((0.55)^2) = 0.834

After Game 5
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + [P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=2) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) = 0.578

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=2) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) = 0.698


Oh give it a rest. You act like this is a hard calculation. The Rockets only have to win a single game so you you don't even have to add multiple scenarios.:wink: .


No, it's not. I just like to write everything out.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#9 » by tha_rock220 » Fri May 1, 2009 4:23 am

T-Mac United wrote:
tha_rock220 wrote:
T-Mac United wrote:Prior to Game 5
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 3) = P(winning Game 5) + [P(losing Game 5) x P(winning Game 6)] + [P(losing Game 5) x P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=3) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) + (0.35)((0.65)^2) = 0.725

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=3) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) + (0.45)((0.55)^2) = 0.834

After Game 5
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + P(winning Game 7)
P(winning 1 out 2) = P(winning Game 6) + [P(losing Game 6) x P(winning Game 7)]

If p = 0.35,
P(X<=2) = (0.35)((0.65)^0) + (0.35)((0.65)^1) = 0.578

If p = 0.45,
P(X<=2) = (0.45)((0.55)^0) + (0.45)((0.55)^1) = 0.698


Oh give it a rest. You act like this is a hard calculation. The Rockets only have to win a single game so you you don't even have to add multiple scenarios.:wink: .


No, it's not. I just like to write everything out.


I was just giving you a hard time bro. Can you tell me the probability the Rockets would have of winning from the get go in an 11 game series?? It's for my dissertation.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#10 » by moofs » Fri May 1, 2009 2:03 pm

spolgar wrote:Re Moofs:

<rant>I want to know why it is that mathematicians still have this notion that their equations all have to be drawn out of convoluted Greek characters. I guess it makes sense if you HAVE to draw your equations on a chalkboard, but they're basically just representing functions when you get down to it. I'd have understood my last 2 years of math 400% better if it was just written down in a way that made sense. Prob/Stats hurts my head.</rant>

a) Tradition. Our mathematics are of Hellenistic origins. Most mathematicians had to go through Euclids Elements in form or the other. Even translations kept the notation for the sake of historic significance.

b) You want to use different scripts for different things of significance. You use the normal english letters f,g,h etc for functions. Some use c for constants in some traditions of math, especially the more beginner stuff, but most of the time, you use the greek letters for alpha, beta, gamma... etc for coefficients/scalars in algebra and analysis. In a book, it's easier to tell things apart, especially if you don't have the luxury of color. Down the road, the use of different scripts for different types of variables became standard because it just made stuff easier to read.

My 2 cents.


Yeah, I know. <continuationrant>As has been shown in lots of other fields though, tradition and historic significance aren't necessarily the best. I suppose there are probably sects within the maths field that use more clarified sets of conventions, just grumpy that it's not taught that way (as I really would have liked to have that bit of understanding under my belt). I think it also bugs me in that I'm used to programmatic functions with the definition and usage more immediately available, i.e. without the need to look up the source code for each function you're using and reimplement it every time you need to solve something (unless you have something like Mathcad), and that the definitions are written in the mentioned obtuse Greek notations, with several things at any given point (in even summaries) not being defined in any one location. Not presenting all their formulas in the form of proofs would make them more comprehensible as well :) The equivalent in programming is a 10,000 line spaghetti code app with documentation haphazardly interleaved over three 40,000 page documents and with several critical pieces omitted. Not only that, but the API (programming interface - like DLL's - functions that other people built that you can reference so everything doesn't have to be rebuilt from scratch every time) would have 14 unit testing functions built in for each function that actually needed to be interfaced, but with no naming conventions and no clarification as to what needed to be used and why.</continuationrant>

Short Version: I don't like mathematics' style of documenting itself because it artificially makes things far harder than they need to be.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#11 » by spolgar » Fri May 1, 2009 8:22 pm

moofs wrote:Yeah, I know. <continuationrant>As has been shown in lots of other fields though, tradition and historic significance aren't necessarily the best. I suppose there are probably sects within the maths field that use more clarified sets of conventions, just grumpy that it's not taught that way (as I really would have liked to have that bit of understanding under my belt).


You would not get a disagreement from me. Freshmen and Sophomore math text books are published at a far lower quality than authors whom write for junior and senior level math books, and then in freshmen and sophomore grad schools another set of authors arise where I got to editions that haven't changed since the 70s. These graduate student books are hallmarks of the introduction into the trade. The level of clarity that is expounded in these volumes is not even comparable with lower level books, let alone freshmen and sophomore texts that really are designed to teach people who are interested in using math, rather than understanding how math really works.

moofs wrote:I think it also bugs me in that I'm used to programmatic functions with the definition and usage more immediately available, i.e. without the need to look up the source code for each function you're using and reimplement it every time you need to solve something (unless you have something like Mathcad), and that the definitions are written in the mentioned obtuse Greek notations, with several things at any given point (in even summaries) not being defined in any one location.



I think the trade off with naming variables is clarity of label versus length of label. It is similar to the trade off between userfriendly vs beginner friendly. I don't disagree with you in the slightest, math notation can be terse, but it's part of the culture.

In your computing example, different functions have standard naming conventions that are exceptionally clear, e.g. hungarian notation, gnu c/c++ style, etc etc. The reason why code is necessarily labelled like this is because code projects can literally be millions of lines long. Along with cognition limitations, you also have internal namespace pollution that needs to be avoided.

In math, proofs seldom go on for more than 20 pages. Referring back to the definitions is something people often do when they start learning math, but one of the skill sets of reading math is maintaining a short term memory of the definitions whilst going through the exposition. It's not something most other fields care for in developing in their students. There is also a particular trend in math books to say things as tersely rather than being verbose, leaving just enough for the student to play with and work out on their own. This approach really encourages students whom are driven to this stuff, but everyone else finds it impossibly obtuse. This terseness is taken to a whole new level for paper publications. I have profs that stay on the same paragraph for a week for something a colleague wrote, which that paragraph can be expanded to a full dozen pages worth of math writing. But then in math journals, space being relatively confined and the author wanting to show off his math eloquence leaves the proof to be really "unencumbered". I understand your conundrum. I learned Math in Hong Kong chinese schools, English schools, Hong Kong private schools that used a french system and then I came to the United States to study latter. Notations moved on me everytime.

moofs wrote:Not presenting all their formulas in the form of proofs would make them more comprehensible as well :) The equivalent in programming is a 10,000 line spaghetti code app with documentation haphazardly interleaved over three 40,000 page documents and with several critical pieces omitted. Not only that, but the API (programming interface - like DLL's - functions that other people built that you can reference so everything doesn't have to be rebuilt from scratch every time) would have 14 unit testing functions built in for each function that actually needed to be interfaced, but with no naming conventions and no clarification as to what needed to be used and why.</continuationrant>

Short Version: I don't like mathematics' style of documenting itself because it artificially makes things far harder than they need to be.


As for talking about formulas in the form of proofs, unfortunately, proofs are what make math internally consistent. You've got no way around it. Formulas are basically constructs that are shown to work in a fashion by its construction, the proof. I understand that proofs are really hard to read, and in freshmen and sophomore math, the students are actually not equipped at all to read the proofs, but I don't think it's the fault of proofing. Rather, I think it is because schools want students to learn how to use math to do things, and that knowing what's really going on has became secondary. I spent a year of graduate school classes thumbing through a 350 page book called Principles of Analysis by Walter Rudin, just to learn how to prove everything in Engineering Calculus 1. It took me 3 months at 5 hours a week of classes plus some hw time when I was 18 to learn to do the calculations. Then it took me a whole year to figure out what the hell was going on when I was 27. That's two semesters of graduate courses, about 20 hours a week on each graduate course and when I got Bs in the class I can still pick up that book three years latter and learn something new from it. The good thing down the road is that the sooner you get use to using proofs to get your point across, the easier it is to read them. And using English to describe math gets to be a real hurdle down the road. Using math is just much much better.

As per the proof reads like spaghetti code with linking issues all over the place, such as definitions of presumed knowledge not immediately available, some authors just assume that you know them, by accident. That's why getting a freshmen/sophomore to read what the hell is going on in a probability book and get it is nigh impossible. You're not suppose to figure out what is going on. You just use the methods prescribed and go home. To get what is going on in a junior level stats course, you need graduate school. You will need some probability, and to understand how that probability works, like how those integrals of a normal distribution really go to 1, you need measure theory, which is the next course after the Principles of Analysis course I talked about before. Notation isn't really the hurdle. Most of the time, this stuff is just hard as hell.
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#12 » by Vator » Fri May 1, 2009 9:26 pm

This thread reminded me why I hate math so much. I should lock this! :P
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#13 » by Rendezvous » Fri May 1, 2009 11:11 pm

Vator wrote:This thread reminded me why I hate math so much. I should lock this! :P


Yeah, My brain started hurting after reading the first 2 posts
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#14 » by HTown_TMac » Sat May 2, 2009 12:16 am

Image
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#15 » by sook » Sat May 2, 2009 12:54 am

I made a 5 on the stats AP test but i forgot most of this :lol:
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Re: Rockets Odds via Binomial Distribution 

Post#16 » by Rendezvous » Sat May 2, 2009 3:16 am

HTown_TMac wrote:Image



:lol: ITS THE WHAT WHAT IN THE BUT MAN!

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