Jazz Salary Cap Scenarios

qman · Post #1 » by **qman** » Fri May 8, 2009 3:15 pm

Mods I think this would be a good canidate for a sticky.

I have been running the numbers for several different Salary Cap Scenarios. Basically the Jazz are in between a rock (everyone's early termination options/player's options) and a hard place (the luxury tax.)

I have created a spreadsheet with all the numbers so I can run other scenarios as needed to.

First of all I assumed Collins, Almond and Knight are long gone.

I got my salaries from http://hoopshype.com/salaries/utah.htm

Players with Contracts for next year
Kirilenko 16.5
Deron 13.8
Boozer 12.7
Okur 9.0
Harpring 6.5
Korver 5.2
Miles 3.7
Brewer 2.7
Koufos 1.2

I included a 1st round Draft pick salary of 1.276 Mil the same as last years 20th pick.

The 2009-10 Salary Cap is 58.68 Mil with the Luxury Tax at 71.15 Mil. To estimate the possible decrease in the Salary Cap this coming year I also included the numbers from the 2008-09 Salary Cap of 55.63 Mil with a Luxury Tax of 67.865 Mil.

Scenario 1-Nobody Opts out and we don't sign any of our free agents

Total Salary 72.5
Salary Cap 09-10 13.8
Luxury Tax 09-10 1.3
Salary Cap 07-08 16.8
Luxury Tax 07-08 4.6

We could be as much as 4.6 Mil over the luxury tax even with out signing Milsap.

Scenario 2 Every Opts out, yes even Korver

Total Salary 45.6

Salary Cap 09-10 -13.0
Luxury Tax 09-10 -25.5
Salary Cap 07-08 -10.0
Luxury Tax 07-08 -22.2

In this case we would have about 20 million available to resign whatever combo of Boozer, Okur and Millsap that floats your boat

Scenario 3 Only Boozer opts out, this seems the most likely to me

Total Salary 59.8

Salary Cap 09-10 1.1
Luxury Tax 09-10 -11.4
Salary Cap 07-08 4.2
Luxury Tax 07-08 -8.1

We would have about 5-6 Mil for Milsap and a couple of minimum contracts to fill out the roster

Scenario 4 Okur opts out but Boozer and Korver Don't

Total Salary 60.7

Salary Cap 09-10 2.0
Luxury Tax 09-10 -10.5
Salary Cap 07-08 5.0
Luxury Tax 07-08 -7.2

We depending on the offers Millsap gets we might lost them both with only 7 million of wiggle room below the luxury tax

All these lead me to believe we have to move AK's contract for some kind of cap relief.

Scenario 5 the much talked about GS trade

The trades most discussed with Golden State are Maggette/Wright/Azubike for AK or Crawford/Wright/Azubike for AK or Maggette/Turiaf

The most Cap relief would come with AK for Crawford/Turiaf, assuming Boozer opts out

Total Salary 56.8

Salary Cap 09-10 -1.8
Luxury Tax 09-10 -14.3
Salary Cap 07-08 1.2
Luxury Tax 07-08 -11.0

We could possible keep Boozer and Okur- have Crawford as our starting SG and replace Millsap with Turiaf.

If that changes to Maggette/Turiaf it is almost the same

Total Salary 56.4

Salary Cap 09-10 -2.3
Luxury Tax 09-10 -14.7
Salary Cap 07-08 0.8
Luxury Tax 07-08 -11.4

If we can move AK for anything at all it really helps out our salary cap situation going forward. Otherwise Boozer,Okur or Millsap will have to walk. I didn't realize how screwed we are until now.

Post #2 » by **jazzfan1971** » Fri May 8, 2009 4:30 pm

Or, you pay luxury tax one year.

slambamJazz · Post #3 » by **slambamJazz** » Fri May 8, 2009 4:31 pm

I don't think they will lower the Luxury tax or salary cap but I also don't seeing raising the cap either.The Jazz are in a tough spot and hope Harping retires that should help alot. If Harping retires and Korver opts out then the jazz should be o.k to resign Milsap plus keep Boozer and Okur and have 5 million exemption to spend on a couple of players like Skinner 2 million and point guard Parga 3 million. I know the jazz want to avoid luxury tax because they will miss out on the profit sharing of Nba . I really could also see them letting Boozer go and Moving A.K to Power forward with Milsap as backup. Then trading Harping and the Knicks pick to Orlando for Hedo.

kebutah · Post #4 » by **kebutah** » Fri May 8, 2009 4:44 pm

Even if Harpring retires his salary counts against the CAP.

qman · Post #5 » by **qman** » Fri May 8, 2009 4:56 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:Or, you pay luxury tax one year.

This is looking like a very real possibility. Or we trade Korver or Harpring for a 2nd round pick.

The Sheik · Post #6 » by **The Sheik** » Fri May 8, 2009 4:57 pm

Its been stated that the cap and luxury tax are going to be deceased this coming season.

idajazz · Post #7 » by **idajazz** » Fri May 8, 2009 5:05 pm

I read somewhere that they CAN sign all of their free agents and stay out of Lux land.
It would be done by back loading contracts, and then letting AK walk at the end of his to cover them.

Anybody know?

slambamJazz · Post #8 » by **slambamJazz** » Sat May 9, 2009 5:37 am

The Sheik wrote:Its been stated that the cap and luxury tax are going to be deceased this coming season.

I have a feeling they will at least freeze the luxury tax because nobody could have predicted the 2 worst economic situation since great depression.

J_Ray · Post #9 » by **J_Ray** » Sat May 9, 2009 6:45 am

kebutah wrote:Even if Harpring retires his salary counts against the CAP.

Harpring counts against the cap but Utah still doesn't pay his salary unless they decide to.

nghedman · Post #10 » by **nghedman** » Sat May 9, 2009 3:47 pm

idajazz wrote:I read somewhere that they CAN sign all of their free agents and stay out of Lux land.
It would be done by back loading contracts, and then letting AK walk at the end of his to cover them.

Anybody know?

I'm not positive, but I think you are right with that. In fact I'm almost certain you are. The only problem is that the player has to agree to take less in the contract for the front end. If I were a player I would be highly against it. I would be worried about injury for a year and not get my bills for the full contract.

There is also of course the bird right rules that allow the team to resign anyone they already have as much over the cap or luxury that they want with penalty. And then the Jazz would have about 8 months to make a trade to pull themselves below the luxury tax before the penalty is incurred.