Good news about Big Baby / MLE

[celtxman]

I expect KG will chat with Sheed about his salary demands - they're friends, so if anyone can get Sheed to fallin in its KG.

I expect Ainge would really like to get Dyess, as he has tried twice before. Dyess is younger than Sheed and was far more productive in the playoffs, so he may be the target - however, KG and him do not share a warm relationship, as KG does with Sheed.

Either way, I am positive that Ainge will go hard after one of the two and is sure to snag a headliner veteran F/C this off-season.

I'm leaning toward Dyess myself, because he really brought his game to a higher level this year after he returned to Detroit, showing he's still got some vintage "Dice" in his game.

I don't know if you caught McDyess getting interviewed by Greg Dickerson before the last Celts-Pistons game when it was clear that Detriot was going nowhere, and McDyess commented on how close he was to signing with Boston, even motioning with his thumb and forefinger how close. It was a moment that showed he regretted his choice. He may to go another contendor, but he will certainly leave Detriot and Boston is very much in the mix, regardless of any KG stuff which is probably overrated.

[sully00]

You simply don't sign Davis for more than $3.0 - 3.5 million per season, 3 years..

The problem with this thinking is then what do you do when he is gone at 5 years 21 mil? How do you replace him? What half decent PF can you get for 3 mil a season in FA?

I know money is going to be tight but the reality is 5.6 mil is the average salary in the NBA. It is going to be hard to get deals bigger than that but I don't know that those deals are going to dry up. What your saying is that Baby is equal to Scal, Kwame Brown got 2 years and 8 mil.

I don't think Baby is a starter but he is rotation guy worthy of 20-25 mpg and he is only 23 years old and you can't keep him for 3rd pg money after you start him in the postseason and he is effective. I am fine with playing the game and seeing if he gets an offer sheet, but then you go to pay the price, I am not fine with letting him go and playing Scal 20-25 mpg and bringing back Mikki Moore or signing Brian Skinner.

[celticsfanforlife]

Exactly. Give him 3 years 15-20 mil and be happy with a solid, durable big man.

[humblebum]

Well discussing potential replacements is a somewhat different question which, due to the Celtics current status (i.e. they're in the second round of the Playoffs), I've not spent time considering... to be honest.

My feeling is that Davis needs to fit in between Scals and Perkins salary wise. He's more valuable than Scal and less valuable then Perkins. Perkins is a bargain deal at whatever he's making now, as I understand Perkins earns somewhere around $4million per, and he's probably worth $8-10million IMO.

So I can see Davis having a certain value on the market. Maybe somewhere around the MLE for some teams, less for others but he may have a small group of suitors who will pursue him this offseason in the $3-5.5 million range.

I just don't see it being prudent to spend more than 3.5 or at the absolute MOST 4.0 on a guy who's ultimately a solid 3rd frontcourt player, and a great 4th frontcourt player. I think you have to slot in a McDyess or Wallace at that 5.0+ number. You can't afford to give that to Davis because 1) there are lingering questions surrounding his eating/conditioning habits (the front office and coaches in Boston are likely to have a really good read on this though, and they won't be desperate as they showed with Posey). And 2) you don't truly have a read on how healthy KG will be going forward and I don't believe Davis is a guy you absolutely want to rely on as your number three front court player.

Ultimately Davis could end up as a solid starter, right now he's a solid bench player but when you have a championship calibre team with current big salary players (Ray, Paul, KG) and emerging big salary players (Rondo, Perkins) you can't spend MLE type money on your run of the mill role player, especially not on long years.

If the Celtics believe that Davis has future all star potential and great work ethic then hell yess sign him at the kind of money. Go nuts! But I just don't realistically believe that the Celtics feel that way about Glen. I can only hope to be pleasantly surprised if the Celtics did believe that, so I'm in a win-win scenario.

However, in terms of replacements. I would certainly feel OK about the Celtics signing McDyess at the full MLE for two seasons. It's short-term. McDyess fits the system beautifully. He brings, length, veteran savvy and pure talent. Then hang onto Scal and look to get into the draft or trade a player for a young or rookie PF like Hansborough (not necessarily him though). If there is one person I believe in it's Clifford Ray. (I'm sure KG and Perk wouldn't hurt either.)

[celtxman]

You simply don't sign Davis for more than $3.0 - 3.5 million per season, 3 years..

The problem with this thinking is then what do you do when he is gone at 5 years 21 mil? How do you replace him? What half decent PF can you get for 3 mil a season in FA?

I know money is going to be tight but the reality is 5.6 mil is the average salary in the NBA. It is going to be hard to get deals bigger than that but I don't know that those deals are going to dry up. What your saying is that Baby is equal to Scal, Kwame Brown got 2 years and 8 mil.

I don't think Baby is a starter but he is rotation guy worthy of 20-25 mpg and he is only 23 years old and you can't keep him for 3rd pg money after you start him in the postseason and he is effective. I am fine with playing the game and seeing if he gets an offer sheet, but then you go to pay the price, I am not fine with letting him go and playing Scal 20-25 mpg and bringing back Mikki Moore or signing Brian Skinner.

I agree. the Celtics have to be extremely shrewd in the off-season and gambling on a big man who can contribute is risky. So far it seems that they can find a way to sign Baby without usi ng the MLE. If Turiaf is getting $4 million it is not at all unreasonable for Baby to get $5 million with only the lower NBA revenues working in the Celtics favor. Sign Baby, utilize the MLE for McDyess to replace Powe. Trade a combination of Scal, TA and Pruitt (expiring) for a SF (shoot for Stephen Jackson by sweeting the pot or maybe Nocioni. Not saying Golden State would do this but check out how bad the Warriors salary cap situation is longer term. And no Patrick O'Bryant experiments. They passed on Chris Anderson for cheap - do some homework and find a cheap long veteran big center (Pollard?) to just be available as a 12th man to replace Moore. This team is built for now - no fooling around like last off-season.

[celticfan42487]

Well the Celts are also pressed in terms of capspace.

Overpaying Baby [over 4 million] may mean the owners won't want to use the full MLE unless it's an excellent signing (which aren't always clear cut as such). And we may not sign another free agent outside of vet mins.

I know it's hard to replace baby especially with no Powe in the background... but even when you're close to the ring I think it's still best for teh franchise to adhere to good market prices.

[ParticleMan]

Perk's contract is good here. I can't see that Davis should get more than Perk. That's a reasonable upper limit. But since Perk is our unquestioned starter and BB is a backup, he should get less. i'm thinking in the 3-4 yr, $3.5mil/yr range.

[chakdaddy]

The other thing is this: I could imagine Glen going for a 1 year deal in the hopes of getting a deal bigger than the MLE the following year.

Mcdyess has been pretty good this year, but he's also THIS close to being done...I'd still make an effort to grab him though. Might as well make another run at Joe Smith while we're at it. Remember when Smith signed with the Bulls instead of us? pffft. But he probably gets his ring this year and stays a Cav.

[sully00]

The thing with using Perk's deal as a bench mark is that it wasn't a market deal. It was an extension for a guy 21 years old who had not lived up to his potential, he was half the player he is now. That said I believe he also has a million dollars a year in attainable bonuses, games played and games started things like that. So I am pretty sure Perk banks about 5 mil a year. With Baby you have to pay for what he is doing right now, the market for that is pretty clear when you see what Turiaff and Maxiell got. I think Gomes contract which is a 5 year, 22mil that has some protections built in for the team would be ideal but I don't know if Baby has any reason to do Boston any favors.

[greenmachine_2849]

You simply don't sign Davis for more than $3.0 - 3.5 million per season, 3 years..

The problem with this thinking is then what do you do when he is gone at 5 years 21 mil? How do you replace him? What half decent PF can you get for 3 mil a season in FA?

I know money is going to be tight but the reality is 5.6 mil is the average salary in the NBA. It is going to be hard to get deals bigger than that but I don't know that those deals are going to dry up. What your saying is that Baby is equal to Scal, Kwame Brown got 2 years and 8 mil.

That is part of it, I agree. Davis is looking like he will probably be our 6th man next year if he stays in Boston, and will possibly have to actually start a number of games in place of Garnett as well. For a 6th man/part-time starter, I think you need to be willing to shell out the entire MLE for that type of player.

The other part of it, and correct if I am wrong, but we still need to get a quality back-up point guard for next season. Even if we want to re-sign Marbury (and if he wants to re-sign here), we wouldn't have Bird rights (or early Bird rights) to do so. We'd have to use the MLE. And I am guessing we'd have to use a large part of the MLE, if not all of it, to get Marbury to re-sign here. He took a discount for a partial season, but I have a difficult time thinking he'll do the same in the future. If we let go of Davis and sign an Antonio McDyess or Rasheed Wallace with the MLE, where do we get the money to re-sign Marbury (or go after another quality back-up point)? I am not sure how replacing Davis with McDyess, letting Marbury go, and having House play most of his minutes at the point like he did earlier this season makes us a better team. I'd prefer we re-sign Davis, re-sign Marbury (or get another high-caliber back-up point) with most of the MLE, and throw the rest of the MLE ($1.5 million or so) at a decent veteran center like Battie for 10 mpg or so. I want to see what a full season of this team healthy can do.

C: Perkins/Battie
PF: Garnett/Davis
SF: Pierce/Walker
SG: Allen/House
PG: Rondo/Marbury

[greenmachine_2849]

Perk's contract is good here. I can't see that Davis should get more than Perk. That's a reasonable upper limit. But since Perk is our unquestioned starter and BB is a backup, he should get less. i'm thinking in the 3-4 yr, $3.5mil/yr range.

Like sully said, Perkins contract is an absolute bargain. You can bet if Perkins became a free agent this summer, he'd be getting something closer to $8 million per instead of the $4 million he's currently getting. Having said that, I don't think it is unreasonable for Davis to ask for somewhere between $5 million and $6 million per, or roughly the MLE. And given his performance since Garnett went down, I have a tough time believing that, if Ainge doesn't offer that amount to him, there won't be at least one general manager that will.

[daboywonder2007]

let's see turiaf gets 4 years 17 million. jason maxiell gets 4 years 20 million. big baby should get nothing less!!!!!

[Fencer reregistered]

Players who get long-term, full-MLE deals are usually disappointments. The exceptions are usually perimeter players.

That said, Davis has improved so much in his first two years that I expect him to get that kind of a deal. He's already a high-quality 6th man.

[ParticleMan]

I dunno. I don't think Baby is an MLE player. He is doing very well here, but in large part it's because he's worked very hard to fit into this system. Overall he's a limited player. He isn't a go-to guy, he scores mostly off dimes. He isn't quick enough to stay with quicker PFs (eg Lewis), and isn't big enough to match up against big scoring PFs. He isn't a shotblocker, his defense is mostly about positioning. Now there are a lot of things he CAN do, I'm not saying he's a bad player. But the full MLE is for guys imo who are starter-caliber players that come off the bench, which a championship team needs. This is why I didn't want to pay the MLE for Posey either. Baby isn't a quality starter on a good team.

I think Perk money is about right- 4 yr, 16mil, plus 4mil in achievable bonuses. You can say Perk wasn't as good as Baby when he got the dough, but Perk also had more upside, primarily because he has a true NBA center body.

Maybe somebody else will offer more, and if he wants to take it, fine. But he could also look long term in that he's only 23, so in 4 years he will be 27, and that will be the time for a big payday. If he goes elsewhere to a worse system, he may not cash in next time. Complementary players, esp big men, always look a lot better on a good team, which is why so many big men get contracts far outstripping what they should. If BBD is smart he will stay here for a little less bling and a little more ring.

[sully00]

Just so everyone understands the numbers again because everything is getting diminished. The full non bird MLE is 5 years 32.4 million dollars, that is the most Baby can get from another team, Boston can pay him more and for a 6th year but not likely in a restricted FA scenario.

Udonis Haslem got 5 years 30 mil in a similar situation with the Heat. A negative for Boston is Millsap and the Jazz. The Jazz historically overpay in these situations based on the concern that the player is really looking to go elsewhere and he is a full bird situation. While both players are better statistical rebounders than Davis I think that is a little overrated in the sense that they tend to be the stay at home rebounder in the front court duo were Davis is more the guy shooting on the perimeter and chasing on defense were Perk or Powe stay at home on the glass.

Glen Davis is a player a GM could say has fit into the role Boston has for him as opposed to the focus being on what he does well.

There is nothing smart about taking less money, and it isn't a poll this is what Big Baby is worth to one team vs what he is worth to the Celtics. At this point Turiaff and Perk's deals are the floor 4 years 17 mil, I think Boston will have to offer Baby Maxiell's contract 4 years 20 mil to keep him out of FA.

This is a league were Amir Johson and Andrey Blatche get multi year deals for more than 3 mil for picking splinters and Baby is hitting game winners in playoff games.

[humblebum]

Sully, I hear where you're coming from and your argument makes a lot of sense. But at the same time the Celtics need to be very prudent and look at all the factors that play into these contract negotiations with Davis. If the coaching staff and management truly believe/know that Davis is a hardworker and that he'll continue to improve they should have NO problems at all with giving Davis close to a full-MLE type deal. What he is doing as a second year player is astounding and it's very clear that at the very least Davis has a flair for the dramatic. In terms of his court game he's very intelligent, efficient, and physical. You can't really argue with that.

However, off the court there is the big question of Davis' ability to keep his weight in check. If the team has concerns in this area then they'll offer something smaller. If they have concerns about paying Davis more than Perkins or simply with going to far over the cap, which would be understandable, the team will obviously try to get Davis on a smaller contract.

One thing is for sure, Davis will make above $3.5 million next season and will likely make above $4 million. If the team believes in Davis and they really believe he'll stay committed I wouldn't have a problem with them going past $4 million but it seems that ultimately there are some lingering concerns around Davis' weight/eating habits and around issues of the cap.

[greenmachine_2849]

I dunno. I don't think Baby is an MLE player. He is doing very well here, but in large part it's because he's worked very hard to fit into this system. Overall he's a limited player. He isn't a go-to guy, he scores mostly off dimes. He isn't quick enough to stay with quicker PFs (eg Lewis), and isn't big enough to match up against big scoring PFs. He isn't a shotblocker, his defense is mostly about positioning. Now there are a lot of things he CAN do, I'm not saying he's a bad player. But the full MLE is for guys imo who are starter-caliber players that come off the bench, which a championship team needs. This is why I didn't want to pay the MLE for Posey either. Baby isn't a quality starter on a good team.

While he certainly has his limitations, he's also the starter for a team that as of right now has a better than 50/50 chance of making it to the conference finals. And its not as if he's playing 10 mpg while the Celtics bring a superior player off the bench to play the true starter minutes; he's playing heavy duty minutes. And he's been the difference maker on more than one occasion. Hell, there have been a few games during the playoffs where he has arguably been the Celtics' best player. Under what definition is he not a quality starter on a good team?