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Turnovers

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e4Nf6
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Turnovers 

Post#1 » by e4Nf6 » Mon May 11, 2009 7:51 pm

This is something that has needed mentioning for a while....

I think it is generally accepted around here that the cats were very good on defense this year and very bad on offense. If we could have been even decent offensively we probably would have made the playoffs easily

There is something I like that Dean Oliver invented called "The Four Factors" which measures how good a basketball team is. The four are:

1. effective field goal percentage (or "Shooting")
2. Rebound percentage
3. Free throws
4. Turnover percentage

If we look at how the Bobcat's did this season in those areas on offense we get this:

1. efg% .494, 19th in the NBA but only .006 (or 1%) less than the league average.

2. Offensive Reb% .277 12th in the NBA and .010 (or 4%) better than the league average.

3. fta/fga .231 19th in the NBA and .05 (or 2%) worse than the league average.

4. Turnover percentage .151
30th in the NBA and .018 (or 14%) below league average


Now, what jumps out. 1% below, 4% above, 2% below, 14% below.

Who or what is responsible for all the turnovers? it seems to be the only thing standing between us and the promised land of offensive mediocrity.

Diaw and Felton are far and away the worst offenders statistically, but are they just victims of general offensive ineptness?
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Re: Turnovers 

Post#2 » by spectre_ » Mon May 11, 2009 8:12 pm

That's good stuff! I had no idea we were 30th in TOs.

Is there a way to see a list of players which puts "usage" (I guess that's the right term...actually have the ball in their hands) along with TOs?

At a quick glance thru the Player Rankings on RGM, it appears a lot of players who have the ball a lot also have TOs:

Paul: 38.5 minutes...3 TOs/game
Flash: 38.6 minutes...3.4 TOs/game
Kobe: 36.1 minutes...2.6 TOs/game
Rondo: 33...2.6
D. Williams: 36.8...3.3
Nash: 33.6...3.4
D Harris: 36.1...3.1
Felton: 37.6...2.8
Boris: 34...2.6

I don't think those two are that far out of the norm; that being said they both sometimes make those "WTF was that???" TOs that are pure brain farts.

I was somewhat surprised Crash's TOs were at 2.1...thought that would be higher. Anyway, I'd hope we'll get better with some more time together. Boris in particular takes some time getting adjusted to.
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Re: Turnovers 

Post#3 » by BigSlam » Mon May 11, 2009 8:12 pm

I think the major shake up to the roster part way though the season and guys getting to know each other combined with a whole new set of plays/coaching style might have something to do with some of the turn overs?

The rest are usually brain farts.
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Re: Turnovers 

Post#4 » by spectre_ » Mon May 11, 2009 8:15 pm

Hah...just beat ya with the "brain fart" line! :lol:

Another point...I think both Felton & Boris are very willing to make a risky pass (same with guys like Nash & Williams), so I doubt their TO numbers will ever be really low.
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Re: Turnovers 

Post#5 » by Paydro70 » Mon May 11, 2009 8:45 pm

Well, 82games keeps track of a couple types of turnovers... ballhandling (this includes getting stolen from, losing the ball off your foot, failing to catch it), "bad pass" (obvious), offensive fouls, and "other," which probably means stepping out of bounds or getting offensive 3 seconds or something. Unfortunately since they haven't put it up sortably, it's tough to know how players compare.

Turnover rate is a good stat generally speaking, but since it doesn't account for how long people hold the ball, it's not really fair to guys who are always dribbling like PGs. Still, done comparatively by position it is definitely useful.

Looking at our PGs, of the 64 players who played 500 minutes, Felton ranks 40th (11.5%) and Augustin 34th (10.9%). So while they're not the super-efficient type like Chris Paul (9%), they're not throwing the ball away all the time, like say, Chris Duhon (14.2%).

Raja Bell, the lone SG to make the list, also finished 26th of 75 (9%), so he's doing pretty well, above-average as far as TOs go.

SFs are a different story. Of 60 ranked players, we have Wallace at 43 (11%), and Radmanovic at 59 (14.6%). Granted Vlad didn't play all that many minutes and his turnover rate was lower with us than LA, but neither one of those guys is doing us any favors.

At PF we had 77 ranked players, and Diaw as 66th (14.4%). Eesh. This isn't totally surprising given his role as facilitator for the offense, but that's something that's dragging us down.

Center looks a bit like PG, of 64 ranked players we had #33 (Okafor, 12.7%) and #43 (Diop, 14.4%).

So most of the team is about average as far as TOs, but when you couple that with some below-average guys like Diaw, Vlad, Diop, and bench players (Carroll and Brown were both bad), we end up 30th.

I think the problem is more schematic than individual, though. Slow-down offenses commit more turnovers for obvious reason (they have the ball longer!) but that's not a hard-and-fast rule. Look at the Pistons and Spurs, who were 29th and 26th in pace, but 2nd and 1st in turnovers.

This is pure speculation, but I think the difference is driving. Tony Parker, one of the best handlers in the league, does a lot of driving but keeps his turnovers low. Outside of him, nobody on the Spurs does, they're all jump shooters or Tim Duncan. If your role on offense, as it is for most of the Spurs, is to stand at the 3pt line and shoot when passed to, you don't turn it over much. The only guy on the Spurs who's not good as far as TOs is Ginobili, because he's a slasher.

As far as the Pistons, Stuckey and Iverson handle the driving, so they get a lot of TOs (well, really they're just about average), but everyone else is a shooter: Hamilton mostly catches and shoots, as does Maxiell, Wallace, Prince.

I guess really that only explains Wallace, whose handle isn't quite good enough to justify the driving, which he has to do since he's not a spot-up shooter. Diaw and Felton, as Spectre noted, are more prone to passing turnovers, and Okafor's not so bad. If we were to switch Wallace for a guy like Prince, Marvin Williams, or Moon, it might not make us better, but it would definitely cut down the TOs.
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