General (Non-Wiz) Draft Discussion

[Dat2U]

I posted this on Wizards insider but figured it would fit here too:

A couple of random thoughts about potentially drafting Rubio.

1. Javaris Crittenton should not come into the decision making of whether we draft Rubio or not. Critt as of now is a fringe NBA player.

He suffers from the terrible combo of not having a jumper and displaying a severe lack of PG acumen. That usually means certain failure for most guards in the NBA. Unless he improves greatly at one or the other he'll be out of the NBA soon regardless of how talented he is or how hard he works. Right now to call him a solid backup PG would be a serious stretch.

2. I don't grasp the argument that adding a true PG should be the least of the Wizards worries. Outside of replacing Jamison with a true PF that can defend, the Wizards biggest concern is finding a backcourt partner with Gil. Gil is first and foremost a combo guard. A guy with PG level skills but a scorer's mentality.

The benefit of having a combo guard is that he's versatile enough to slide over to the SG position. In fact based on his physical stature, I think Gil is better suited to guarding taller SGs than chasing around lighting quick PGs on defense.

3. Another point to consider is that for years, the Wizards have ranked towards the bottom of the league in assists. Even when Gil was healthy, this team was overly reliant on taking and making contested jumpers. Gil was the only guy capable of creating off the dribble & getting easy shots for himself and others (at least since Hughes left). Rubio could fill that void and has the ability to get easier shots for everyone.

4. Regarding Gil's willingness to play off the ball. As Michael Lee said, Gil showed he was very capable at doing this with Hughes. I suspect once Gil sees Rubio in action up close, he'll be quite comfortable letting Rubio run the show. Gil is a smart guy, once he sees Rubio's masterful skillset and off the charts on-court IQ he'll be right on board. Gil wants to win, lets stop assuming he's such a diva that he's only willing to do things his way.

5. Rubio's leadership qualities should not be overlooked. Even though he's just 18, he's become a leader for his ACB league team which is filled with grown men. Some guys are born leaders. Griffin is one and so is Rubio. He leads out on the court, directing traffic, putting his teammates in position and placing the ball in their hands where they can best succeed.

It won't come right away, but frankly guys like Jamison & Butler should be a bit more humbled by this recent awful season to understand that they need help. Rubio isn't Nick Young, Andray Blatche or Javale McGee, he'll earn the vets respect quickly.

6. While we hate discussing it. Gil's future is still cloudy. We all hope he's over this injury plagued stretch with his knee, but in the worst case scenario, we'd have his replacement in Rubio. Gil's health shouldn't be a huge consideration on draft day but its an added bonus that we'd have a top level security blanket if Gil's injury problems resurface.

[nate33]

Man, Dat2U and Doc have me real excited about Griffin now. If he turns out to be the next Karl Malone, we will be a perennial contender for the next 10 years.

[doclinkin]

Man, Dat2U and Doc have me real excited about Griffin now.

Sorry 'bout that.

Look, what Griff lacks most right now to be an accurate Karl Malone comparison is [EDIT--uh, what Dat said] a fully developed jumper. Karl Malone had a nice face-up shot he could get off whenever he needed to. He was deadly in the pick and roll but could also hit the pick and pop/ pick and fade. When he couldn't overpower a guy (rarely) he would rely on that highly competent midrange game.

Now Blake G _can_ take that midrange shot and hit it, off the dribble, off the fade, has shown the Tim Duncan bank-shot, will hit a face up three even, though he takes the shot once every three games or so. But he hasn't yet met a player he couldn't go over, or draw to the arc and then drive around them. Has benefited from a weak era in NCAA Big Men. When he does meet them, he'll have to adjust more. But so did Malone. And he's shown the tools to do it.

That dribble drive is what Blake has in common with Malone: for all his burliness he's a nimble guy, can dribble with his head up, blow by most bigs, handle. He can also make the smart pass out of the doubleteam, re-post, and go get rebounds. He may also have in common the mild disinterest in defense that prevented Malone from landing a championship. But Malone never had a quality defensive Big next to him who could free him up to simply feast on rebounds and missed shots.

So. The other thing that Griffin would really need to match the Malone comparison is John Stockton. That and the Jerry Sloan pick and roll scheme that featured him. Blake G can go get offensive putbacks, but if you want him to really star somebody has to get the ball in his hands. He can make you look really good on the alley oop though. With him and McGee on court you can play a 'go git it' scheme, chuck up any garbage shot you want, and call it a pass when they bounce up there to flush it down. The real risk (pray mercy) is they get in each other's way and risk accidental murder up there.

On the other hand, Malone also never had the offensive firepower around him that we have here, so it would be harder to double him. And the rules have changed so you can't simply fill the paint with huge and choke him off. Overall he may not have the sheer numbers that Malone earned, but in part that's because he wouldn't be the sole option here.

Actually. the fact that Griffin is smaller in height than some of the 4's in the league works to the benefit of players like Caron and Gil. I fully expect Blake to develop the jumper he featured on occasion this year. When teams throw a wall of meat at him, his face-up game and smart passing give room underneath for perimeter slashers. Same way Garnett's game allowed Spree and Cassell to get loose under the hoop. Same way McDyess was key for Flip.

Yes, we get Blake I promise you gents, we are very very happy in the long run. One week from today we find out. Nothing to do but contemplate happy thoughts, why not? One thing the longtime Bullet/Wiz fans know is that hope always lives in the offseason. Might as well enjoy the anticipation.

[doclinkin]

Boozer, Brand and Jefferson may not have Griffin's athleticism but all three have other skills that Blake has yet to exhibit, most notably on offense. Brand, who you dis', is an outstanding jumpshooting big man and a great shotblocker--two strengths that Griffin clearly doesn't have. And, while Blake will almost certainly become a better shooter, I doubt that he'll ever be as good a shotblocker or defender as Brand.

BTW, I'm still on the "draft Tyreke Evans bandwagon." Yes, Evans needs to improve his perimeter shooting, cutdown on his turnovers and learn to pass more and shoot less--not unlike many kids coming out of college.

Funny. You're killing a dominant rebounding Big man for not being a jumpshooter, then pimping a _Guard_ who still can't shoot? Or pass. Or make smart decisions with the ball.

With the exception of a bit of positional defense Blake Griffin shows all the skills and instincts you want in a Big, and all the athleticism you could hope for. He checks the categories off. But you're shilling for a guy who misses half the boxes you need in the basic job description of: 'Guard, Point/Shooting'.

'Reke has all the one-on-one game you'd ever want, but fewer of the team skills. The Guard positions are ball-dominant spots, if you can't shoot and have to dribble a billion times to get an open shot, you're a liability. Point being, if you have to improve in all areas of your basic job description, you're a ways away from being able to help the team win. Back to the 'potential' and 'development' aspects. I'd prefer to get this chassis out of R&D and maybe put it on the road. Win a race or two.

[Rafael122]

I'm not reading into the workouts, but...its fun to do anyway.

Ernie's working out 4 guards tomorrow, all whom play the 2, maybe the 3. Out of those 4, Spain looks like the guy who won't get drafted, spot up shooter and he lacks athleticism.

Taylor - can't play defense.

I'm most intrigued by Matthews. I'm looking for perimeter defenders, and he seems to be the only one who plays good defense.

[DCZards]

Funny. You're killing a dominant rebounding Big man for not being a jumpshooter, then pimping a _Guard_ who still can't shoot? Or pass. Or make smart decisions with the ball.

With the exception of a bit of positional defense Blake Griffin shows all the skills and instincts you want in a Big, and all the athleticism you could hope for. He checks the categories off. But you're shilling for a guy who misses half the boxes you need in the basic job description of: 'Guard, Point/Shooting'.

'Reke has all the one-on-one game you'd ever want, but fewer of the team skills. The Guard positions are ball-dominant spots, if you can't shoot and have to dribble a billion times to get an open shot, you're a liability. Point being, if you have to improve in all areas of your basic job description, you're a ways away from being able to help the team win. Back to the 'potential' and 'development' aspects. I'd prefer to get this chassis out of R&D and maybe put it on the road. Win a race or two.

The kid's 19, doc, with one year of college. I like his potential. Sorry u can't relate.

[VictorPage44]

Harden shot over 40% from three as a freshman, this season he shot a respectable 36%. He can hit threes off the dribble, pulling up with a man in his face, and on step backs. He also has shown range out past the NBA line. I think at the very least he'll be a knock down shooter. Also, in dx's breakdown of the shooting guard prospects, they show that not only does harden get to the rim more than any other SG prospect, he also has the highest PPP in these situations.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Sit ... Crop-3195/

He's a very efficient scorer with range on his jumper. He also averaged over 4.2 apg with fewer possessions than any other prospect (my estimation, but I dont think anyone else plays slower than ASU). I also think he's very competitive--while he may not have shown up in the NCAA tournament, if ASU had beat USC in the pacten tournament, he would have been tournament MVP (with 27 and 24 pts in the previous two games). Also, he was an immediate factor, and as a bonus he ended univ. of Arizona's run of something like 15 straight wins over ASU and went 5-0 against Arizona while at ASU.

Harden has adequate size, dominant scoring ability, and I think enough intangible attributes to be a great shooting guard. I'm also interested to see how he measures out in drills, if he's at the bottom of the class, I probably wouldnt draft him, but I think if he proves that he's an adequate athlete, he has enough basketball skill to be a great player. If we get rid of a few bigs before the draft, I can make a good case for Hill too, but as of now, theres no point in taking J hill and putting him behind aj and blatche--who doesnt get enough mins as is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj1HjwTB ... re=related

Edit: meant to post this link-- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABw4d_sw1M0

[DCZards]

2. I don't grasp the argument that adding a true PG should be the least of the Wizards worries. Outside of replacing Jamison with a true PF that can defend, the Wizards biggest concern is finding a backcourt partner with Gil. Gil is first and foremost a combo guard. A guy with PG level skills but a scorer's mentality.

The benefit of having a combo guard is that he's versatile enough to slide over to the SG position. In fact based on his physical stature, I think Gil is better suited to guarding taller SGs than chasing around lighting quick PGs on defense.

Yep. Gil and the Zards played some of their best ball when GA was on the court with AD...freeing Gil to do what he does best...score. I do expect GA to up his assist numbers but I'd sure like to see him teamed with a sweet passing PG.

[doclinkin]

The kid's 19, doc, with one year of college. I like his potential. Sorry u can't relate.

Look, don't get me wrong, I like his 'potential' just fine. It's just a difference in our assessment of team needs. Seems to me if we continue to add unformed raw talent and expect to teach 'em up, at some point we realize we're overloaded with more potential than production. That's what gets good coaches fired. (Young, Blatche under EJ; now McGee, Crittenton as well) .

TekeEvans may turn out to be a nice player in this league, but my current impression is that he's got a ton of individual skills and no clear idea of how best to play on a team. No catch and shoot game, no jumpshot off the dribble. He can drive and finish great. Sometimes drive and kick. But if he can't hit an outside shot he clogs up the middle and we become no-dimensional. And if he loses the ball once every five touches, well that's non-optimal.

I don't put a limit on his development, but there are plenty of freshman far less talented who can both pass and hit an outside shot. The youth argument only goes but so far when you're talking about a top 5 draftee. And on this team, I dunno, I guess I'm leaning towards the intangibles of a more fully developed skillset, and better team skills/production, over adding more raw 'upside'.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not reading into the workouts, but...its fun to do anyway.

Ernie's working out 4 guards tomorrow, all whom play the 2, maybe the 3. Out of those 4, Spain looks like the guy who won't get drafted, spot up shooter and he lacks athleticism.

Taylor - can't play defense.

I'm most intrigued by Matthews. I'm looking for perimeter defenders, and he seems to be the only one who plays good defense.

Raf, I agree with you 100% on Wesley Matthews.

Matthews is to the SG position in this draft what Collison is to PGs. Very solid four-year player. Been there and done that. No real weakness. Besides being a really good perimeter defender, Matthews gets to the line a lot. Decent perimeter shooter. Being able to score in a variety of ways and defend makes him a good pick in round 2 IMO.

Matthews could come in and be a solid backup SG. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he was drafted in round two because his dad played a while in the NBA and was once a Bullet.

[DCZards]

Look, don't get me wrong, I like his 'potential' just fine. It's just a difference in our assessment of team needs. Seems to me if we continue to add unformed raw talent and expect to teach 'em up, at some point we realize we're overloaded with more potential than production. That's what gets good coaches fired. (Young, Blatche under EJ; now McGee, Crittenton as well) .

You'll get no argument from me when you say Evans is raw, turns the ball over too much, lacks a jump shot, etc., etc. And if I'm drafting for the Zards and I have the top pick I'm taking Griffin all day, every day, because he fits what we need most.

However, after Blake it's more of a crap shoot. Is Rubio any less "raw" than Evans. Scouts says Ricky also lacks a consistent jumper and is a poor defender. Or you could play it safe and take a more experienced Curry over Evans...kinda like the Zards did when they took Rasheed over KG.

Sometimes you just have to take the best player available....and that just might be Evans if you're looking at the 2-5 pick.

[Benjammin]

Look, don't get me wrong, I like his 'potential' just fine. It's just a difference in our assessment of team needs. Seems to me if we continue to add unformed raw talent and expect to teach 'em up, at some point we realize we're overloaded with more potential than production. That's what gets good coaches fired. (Young, Blatche under EJ; now McGee, Crittenton as well) .

You'll get no argument from me when you say Evans is raw, turns the ball over too much, lacks a jump shot, etc., etc. And if I'm drafting for the Zards and I have the top pick I'm taking Griffin all day, every day, because he fits what we need most.

However, after Blake it's more of a crap shoot. Is Rubio any less "raw" than Evans. Scouts says Ricky also lacks a consistent jumper and is a poor defender. Or you could play it safe and take a more experienced Curry over Evans...kinda like the Zards did when they took Rasheed over KG.

Sometimes you just have to take the best player available....and that just might be Evans if you're looking at the 2-5 pick.

Rubio has played at a pretty good level in a strong professional league. What I've read and seen (in clips) is a guy with long arms who moves his feet decently well to have potential as a defender. I agree that Rubio needs work on his jumper, but he'll also set up guys with easy baskets. He'll likely have trouble with very quick or very strong guards at times. I don't see the Rasheed/KG comparison with Curry. Rasheed was a young player (sophomore I believe) with great physical tools. KG was younger with even greater physical tools, but Sheed was by no means an average or just decent athlete (Curry). A better example would have been if the Wizards had drafted Battier rather than Kwame (Chandler, Gasol, etc.).

[badinage]

I'm bracing for reality, so ...

Assuming we wind up with the third pick, how about this?

Package it (Thabeet) and Nick Young to Detroit for Prince and Rip.

Dumars wants to change the complexion of the team, and this will do it, giving him a big, interior-clogging, shot-blocking center to anchor the defense -- his priority -- and a young slasher to pair with Stuckey.

If anything, I think we get the worst of it, slightly, because both Prince and Rip have some age on them.

But Jesus, we'd be nicely loaded, wouldn't we?

Starters:

Haywood
Jamison
Prince
Arenas
Hamilton

Bench:

Butler
McGuire
McGee
Blatche
Songaila
Crittenton
Stevenson

That's a good mix of D and O in the starting unit. With Prince and Haywood, you have two guys who, with their long arms and defensive instincts, can do a good job of masking the deficiencies of Jamison. I also think that in Flip's zone-based scheme, Jamison will be slyly covered for anyway. As for Hamilton, he has shown desire and decent D in his time with Detroit. This deal makes us immediately better defensively.

On O? Prince's 3-point shooting is often overlooked, and will help immensely in spreading the floor. Rip and Gilb are a very good, very dangerous backcourt. We get much, much better on O, too.

The bench, with Butler as sixth man, is fairly deep, and very big. We can throw some size at people. Blatche in a reserve role becomes infinitely more valuable, able to pick his spots and run. Songaila won't have to play center. McGuire can be our rubberman, our do-everything guy. McGee can run the floor, block shots and give energy. The only weakness is our backcourt, here, and it's not bad. Crittenton should show some improvement, and Stevenson won't be as bad as he was this year; plus, he won't have to log big minutes.

I haven't listed Pech, and I know that with this new roster, he'd be unlikely to get minutes, but I'd still like to see what he's got next year, now that Flip has him and can spend some time thinking about how to maximize him. I refuse to believe that Pech is a bum.

[LyricalRico]

Assuming we wind up with the third pick, how about this?

Package it (Thabeet) and Nick Young to Detroit for Prince and Rip.

You'd have to include WAY more salary from the Wiz to make it work.

I actually proposed a Butler+filler for Rip+Prince deal a couple weeks ago and didn't get many comments on it. This way we get to keep our pick (assuming it's either Griffin or Rubio) and get better defensively. Maybe we can convince McDyess to come, too. Then packaging other assets to get Hinrich would pretty much complete the picture.

Haywood/McDyess/McGee
Jamison/Griffin
Prince/Jamison
Hamilton/Young
Arenas/Hinrich

A Detroif fan commented that it wouldn't work because of Rip/Prince not having any respect for Flip Saunders. I think that's overblown but DET fans seem to think it's a legit concern. I'd be willing to take the chance that with Sheed out of the picture the other guys will play nice.

[Ji]

Blake Griffin is on Twitter. I am following him...hopefully this is not a jinx.

You guys can follow me at twitter.com/jhatem

[Ji]

If we go into the lottery expecting to land the #1 pick, we are probably going to be highly disappointed especially since we just recently won a lottery.

Temper your expectations and hope for the best

[doclinkin]

You'll get no argument from me when you say Evans is raw, turns the ball over too much, lacks a jump shot, etc., etc. And if I'm drafting for the Zards and I have the top pick I'm taking Griffin all day, every day, because he fits what we need most.

However, after Blake it's more of a crap shoot. Is Rubio any less "raw" than Evans. Scouts says Ricky also lacks a consistent jumper and is a poor defender. Or you could play it safe and take a more experienced Curry over Evans...kinda like the Zards did when they took Rasheed over KG.

Sometimes you just have to take the best player available....and that just might be Evans if you're looking at the 2-5 pick.

Which is why I think many on this board are looking at trading down after the 1st pick to pick up a non-protected future pick, a starter at 2-guard, cap/roster space for future moves, decent players later.

--#2 will give you the best value in trade, with teams projecting Rubio as a future allstar. I still think it's a risky pick, personally, with better immediate value later. But i understand the interest. Some teams eyeball Thabeet in this slot as well, and may move up to scoop a team who is trying to trade into the #3 spot. If not, well you've gambled on the best young guard in Europe, can sell some tickets on that, may eventually match the hype.

--#3 Sift offers for Thabeet. Trade off this spot. If stuck here? I expect Ernie will make you happy and pick Teke. I see nobody I really like at #3, not for the money, not for the risk, not for the fit. My favorite players are projected further down.

-- #4 No real trade value. Here your offers are next to nothing unless Thabeet slips (someone likes Brandon Jennings/Teke Evans in a workout or something and takes them early).

-- #5 Ditto. But you can take a reach on a player here. As of today, of the mid-to-late first round picks I like:

James Johnson
Ty Lawson
Stef Curry
DJ Blair
Eric Maynor

Nick Calathes
Darren Collison
Jordan Hill
James Harden
Earl Clark.

These all look to be productive role-players in the league. If I could land a quality starter, dump unproductive salary or roster spots, and add one of the above players I'd count it a successful draft. More so than a swing-for-the-fences hypertalent who looks like they may have longer to go to develop fully. (okay Earl Clark fits that category, but whatever, I'm shifty like that).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If the Wizards trade down and end up with Blair and Calathes, I'd be just as happy as if they got Griffin, doc.

Guys who defend, guys who rebound, guys who make plays for others. Both will start at some point in their careers, but who'll definiely contribute a lot.

Blair will help with second chance points. Calathes IMO could be another Alvin Williams at his best (Kev mentioned him) or Bob Sura.

[DCZards]

If the Wizards rade down and end up with Blair and Calathes, I'd be just as happy as if they got Griffin, doc.

Guys who defend, guys who rebound, guys who make plays for others. Both will start at some point in their careers, but who'll definiely contribute a lot.

Blair will help with second chance points. Calathes IMO could be another Alvin Williams at his best (Kev mentioned him) or Bob Sura.

I love Blair's motor and toughness, but undersized inside players like him usually have problems at the next level. I think of other undersized guys like Craig Smith from BC or Ike Diougu out of Ariz. State...both of whom were beasts in the low-post in college but can hardly get off the bench in the NBA.

I also can't see Blair defending some of the bigs he'll face at the PF/C position. Yeah, he handled Thabeet, but 'beet has an extremely limited offensive game.

I expect Blair to be better than both Smith and Diougu--at least on the boards---but I don't think DeJuan is worth a top 10-12 pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If the Wizards rade down and end up with Blair and Calathes, I'd be just as happy as if they got Griffin, doc.

Guys who defend, guys who rebound, guys who make plays for others. Both will start at some point in their careers, but who'll definiely contribute a lot.

Blair will help with second chance points. Calathes IMO could be another Alvin Williams at his best (Kev mentioned him) or Bob Sura.

I love Blair's motor and toughness, but undersized inside players like him usually have problems at the next level. I think of other undersized guys like Craig Smith from BC or Ike Diougu out of Ariz. State...both of whom were beasts in the low-post in college but can hardly get off the bench in the NBA.

I also can't see Blair defending some of the bigs he'll face at the PF/C position. Yeah, he handled Thabeet, but 'beet has an extremely limited offensive game.

I expect Blair to be better than both Smith and Diougu--at least on the boards---but I don't think DeJuan is worth a top 10-12 pick.

DCZards, it's really eerie to me you'd mention Diogu. I was thinking about posting about Diogu...

Diogu's career per-36 averages are 17.7 points, 8.9 rebounds. For his career he's shot .501 FG and .804 FT. His career PER is 16.1. (Finished with PER over 20 last season and PER of 17 the season before.). In the last two games of the season, he put up 32 and 11 followed by 28 and 13.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... uik01.html

Like you, DCZards, I expect Blair to be better than Diogu on the boards. Way better. But I don't think he's like Diogu. Diogu's a much better scorer. I'd argue you could put Diogu in at Jamison's spot and the Wizards wouldn't miss a beat. I'd say Diogu's just what Portland needs behind Aldridge. But they traded him away.

Tell EJ he might want to insist the Kings re-sign Diogu, DCZ.

The guy I expect Blair to be like is Kevin Love on the boards. Defensively, he'll be better than Love. I think Blair will be a cross between Love, Millsap, and Big Baby Davis. Blair has great hands. He has a motor and both great anticipation and hands for steals like Millsap. He bats a lot of balls to himself in order to rebound, similar to Love. Like Davis and Love, Blair doesn't go vertical to rebound, he goes horizontal. Like Davis, Blair will score on up and unders.


The player most like Blair IMO is Chuck Hayes. He's a smaller DeJuan Blair. While that might not be a sterling endorsement, IMO, Hayes does a lot of good things on the court provided he has scorers around him. Hayes finished third behind Duncan and Garnett in defensive rating last season. I believe Blair is bigger, stronger, and deceptively faster than Hayes.