Sunday in Perspective

elrod enchilada · Post #1 » by **elrod enchilada** » Sat May 16, 2009 2:08 pm

Anyone who comes to this board regularly knows I am Danny Ainge’s biggest fan, and that I adore Rondo and Perkins. I think the Cs are likely to have a very good future. I also think we have terrific ownership that will be willing to spend for a contender.

That being said, the unspoken truth is that this may well be the closest the Celtics get to the eastern conference finals for a decade or two or longer. There is not constitutional right to make the ECF or get to the Finals. There are 15 teams in the EC. The odds are not on our side, and there is some tall timber growing in the eastern conference. Even if Danny is brilliant he may not be able to put together a roster that can contend.

The Cs mindset can’t be “hey, without KG and Leon we have nothing to lose, because we aren’t winning this year anyway. We won a title last year so we are the big dogs and will be back next year with KG and make another run then. Anything this year is a bonus.”

The Cs have to approach this game like it will be the last chance in their careers to make the ECF. Because it may well be. Not just Paul and Ray, but Perk and Rajon and Big Baby, too.

If they don’t, they will lose. Because Orlando is good, and they are hungry.

Post #2 » by **canman1971** » Sat May 16, 2009 2:51 pm

I see the Celtics as "Rocky" Orlando had their chance to knock the champs out, but the Cs have found a way to survive some tough blows. You don't give the champs repeated chances. Celtics will prevail!!!!

BillessuR6 · Post #3 » by **BillessuR6** » Sat May 16, 2009 3:54 pm

...unspoken truth is that this may well be the closest the Celtics get to the eastern conference finals for a decade or two or longer...

Did we just traded KG, Ray and Paul for Gerald Green and a bunch of scrubs?

No? Than this team has a great chance to win a title in the next few years...We have a superb team, only CLE is on our level in the east when healthy, so I don`t understand all this gloom and doom...

We don`t need to have the mindset "there is no tomorrow" to win on Sunday! We have the confidence, experience, toughness and heart to win!

Bad-Thoma · Post #4 » by **Bad-Thoma** » Sat May 16, 2009 4:38 pm

Seem like an awfully pessimistic view, IMO. The East may have some tough teams with Orlando, the Baby Bulls, and the Lebron's, but it is extremely top heavy. We can compete with any of these teams as constituted and when healthy I think only Cleveland currently can run with us. It's not going to be particularly difficult to get to the playoffs in the east for a while, especially being in the titanic division, and once we are in we stand a chance due to the veteran savvy of this team that is present and being passed on to Perk and Rondo. With a healthy team next year and hopefully a better off-season we stand a solid chance to be much better than we were this year, and we were pretty damned good this year. For the long view having some gigantic expiring contracts will provide some flexibility in rebuilding the roster as the big 3 decline. Who knows what will happen, but I see plenty of reason for optimism and not a hell of a lot for pessimism.

chakdaddy · Post #5 » by **chakdaddy** » Sat May 16, 2009 4:45 pm

It MAY be the closest we get to the ECF.

But it WON'T be the best chance we have to win a championship in the coming years either.

Going into the first round of the playoffs next year with a healthy KG has a higher odds of a title than going into the ECF against LeBron without KG.

Yeah, when you get this far you have to try, but I disagree with the basic premise.

elrod enchilada · Post #6 » by **elrod enchilada** » Sat May 16, 2009 6:10 pm

Not sure why folks are getting lathered on this post; that was not the intent.

basic premise: we may not get back with this group to the ECF. Pessimistic? Hardly. We may, but history suggests the chances are less than 50-50. Orlando is only getting better. Cleveland can't get much better short of going undefeated next year. And LeBron is still improving. Other teams are certain to emerge. Chicago, Atlanta, Miami are on the horizon, with others behind them.

And we are getting older.

Those are facts.

Now, I think we could return to the ECF and even win a flag, if we stay healthy and Rondo turns into a top 10 player in the league.

Thise are big ifs.

This is no criticism of Danny-- he is the best. But some matters are outside his control.

My point: these guys need to play tomorrow's game as if this will be their last chance to get to the ECF in their careers. Becasue it may be.

chakdaddy · Post #7 » by **chakdaddy** » Sat May 16, 2009 6:20 pm

But whether we win or lose tomorrow, the chance of winning a title is as low as or lower than it will be at any time in the next 3-4 years, and that's what really matters.

I'll take our team with a healthy KG over an improved Orlando, Chicago, Atlanta, or Miami any day until maybe 2012. Cleveland will be Cleveland, but I like our chances against a further improved Cleveland team with KG better than against the current Cleveland team without him.

BillessuR6 · Post #8 » by **BillessuR6** » Sat May 16, 2009 6:56 pm

I have no idea where you are coming from with this extremely pessimistic view...Do you think Danny will just sit on his hands and do nothing? Just because some other teams are younger it doesn`t mean they have a brighter future. You make it sound like the rosters in the NBA are set in stone and no moves will be made in the next few years...Ridiculous!

SichtingLives · Post #9 » by **SichtingLives** » Sat May 16, 2009 8:45 pm

If you mean to say that they will have a hard time getting back to the ECF with this current group/nucleus of players, then sure, you may have a point (and that's only assuming KG will not recover). But this is what you said:

elrod enchilada wrote:the unspoken truth is that this may well be the closest the Celtics get to the eastern conference finals for a decade or two or longer.

IMO, this is a rather rediculous and unprovable opinion. Players change teams and rosters evolve very quickly in the NBA. I don't see why the Celtics don't have as good of a chance as any other team at acquiring some other studs and working role players within the next 5 years to fit in with their younger core players, considering 1.) Danny has done a pretty good job at finding non-lottery picks and turning them into legit NBA players, 2.) all the salary that comes off the books with the Big 3 in the next few years. I know you can say that Rondo/Perk/whoever will eat up some of those contracts when their time comes, but we'll still have a good sum of money to work with.

It all rests on DA (and ownership) to take what we have, add to it and keep a competitive product on the floor. Don't forget that the front office isn't just competing with the rest of the NBA but the high standards of the other New England sports franchises and the ever-unsatisfiable fanbase as well to deliver a superior product. Just look at the Red Sox, where anything less than 92 wins is viewed as an atrocity. The Celtics fanbase has quickly adopted the same philosophy in the past year, and don't doubt that the Boston Celtic ownership group and front office hear it loud and clear.

I don't think we'll be dipping back into those dark days again until Rondo is somewhere in his 30's and exiting his prime (which he has yet to even enter), and even then, who knows who will be inhabiting the Celtics roster so far into the future. For all we know, there could be yet another unheralded gem to be found at #21 in the years to come. All things considered, front office/ownership would have to botch up a good amount to send this franchise back to the pits of despair from where we're currently sitting. I don't know if they're the best in the business but I have enough faith in them not to screw us like that.

Ed Pinkney · Post #10 » by **Ed Pinkney** » Sat May 16, 2009 10:52 pm

People seem to be missing the point I think Elrod's making. A good roster does not necessarily guarantee that you will be one of the top two teams in conference each year. In the last 30 odd years, seven teams have one the titles. Those aren't great odds for a majority of the league. Good teams with great players might lose in the first round or second round every year. The East is getting better.

It is a realistic possibility that we don't win a title or make the ECF again for a long time. It is also a realistic possibility we could win another title with Rondo in his prime.

spudwebb · Post #11 » by **spudwebb** » Sun May 17, 2009 5:44 pm

KG will be back next year, your overall defense and rebounding improves exponentially.

If Rondo develops a jumpshot, your offense will improves exponentially.

If Perkins continues to improve his short range jumper and becomes consistent with a post move or two, your offense improves.

If you upgrade a Scalabrine and Marbury (which should not be hard) your bench improves tremendously.

Pierce has declined but his game isn't just going to drop off the face of the planet in 1 or 2 years.

Ray Allen can't get much worse than he was in last year's Cav's series or this Orlando series.

So chances are the Celtics will be better in their next couple of playoff runs if they can stay healthy.

Hemingway · Post #12 » by **Hemingway** » Sun May 17, 2009 8:05 pm

We probably have better odds at being healthier next post season than we were this one. Also we have the MLE to add another player. In my opinion this will more than make up for another year of aging to our older players. Also Rondo could be at all star level next season.

Post #13 » by **sunshinekids99** » Sun May 17, 2009 8:05 pm

spudwebb wrote:KG will be back next year, your overall defense and rebounding improves exponentially.

If Rondo develops a jumpshot, your offense will improves exponentially.

If Perkins continues to improve his short range jumper and becomes consistent with a post move or two, your offense improves.

If you upgrade a Scalabrine and Marbury (which should not be hard) your bench improves tremendously.

Pierce has declined but his game isn't just going to drop off the face of the planet in 1 or 2 years.

Ray Allen can't get much worse than he was in last year's Cav's series or this Orlando series.

So chances are the Celtics will be better in their next couple of playoff runs if they can stay healthy.

Really? Cause I think he's a much better player now.