Draft Lottery Theory

bflewis · Post #1 » by **bflewis** » Sun May 17, 2009 11:10 pm

So the lottery is on Tuesday at 5:30. To be honest, I am extremely nervous about our chances of getting the #1-2 pick, but I began thinking. There have been several conspiracy theories about the draft lottery... So I thought who the NBA would want to get the #1 and #2 pick, and I think the NBA may want the Kings to get the #1-2 pick, but thats IF the lottery is rigged. any thoughts?

Smills91 · Post #2 » by **Smills91** » Sun May 17, 2009 11:16 pm

bflewis wrote:So the lottery is on Tuesday at 5:30. To be honest, I am extremely nervous about our chances of getting the #1-2 pick, but I began thinking. There have been several conspiracy theories about the draft lottery... So I thought who the NBA would want to get the #1 and #2 pick, and I think the NBA may want the Kings to get the #1-2 pick, but thats IF the lottery is rigged. any thoughts?

IF it's rig, I see Washington getting the #1 pick, then OKC as a back-up.

However, just go with the Odd's we have a 2/3 chance of getting a top 3 pick. Nearly a 50% chance of 1 or 2. And we have 25 % chance at #1.

That's it. And past results are NOT indicative of future results when it comes to probability.

artest420 · Post #3 » by **artest420** » Mon May 18, 2009 12:38 am

if okc get the #1 and blake griffin it is rigged for sure. its too fishy that 3 #1's go to their home town since lebron.

we should get a good player either way and petrie usualy is good at picking. i want to see what happens with our rockets pick more. #23 is going to be the petrie specialty, count on it.

RIPskaterdude · Post #4 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Mon May 18, 2009 6:15 pm

I could see the following teams getting the #1 pick

Washington: because any team with Jamison/Arenas/Griffin will be back into the playoffs in no time
Memphis: Conley/Malo/Gay/Griffin/Gasol ... enough said
OKC: The home town hero leads OKC to a winning record and barely misses the playoffs
Clippers: Tons of talent, would be interesting to see how Griffin would play on that team with so many bigs.

The dark horse pick......

Indiana: They have needed a good PF since JO went down with multiple knee problems.

cdt3 · Post #5 » by **cdt3** » Mon May 18, 2009 6:49 pm

If New York got the pick yes. But I doubt any of the smaller market teams getting it is rigged and the Clippers owner is not even in the same hemisphere as the NBA cheating to favor the Lakers or New York.

Website · Post #6 » by **Nicky Nix Nook** » Mon May 18, 2009 7:30 pm

Originally I was sure OKC would get the pick. However, I think it's a little too obvious. The hometown kid, and only a couple years after they already got #2. I think the NBA would face major skepticism if OKC gets the number 1. Now although the Kings are usually s*** on by the leauge, I think Stern really wants to keep the team in Sac. However, I don't believe that he will give us Griffin. I think he will see it as a good move for the Kings to get Rubio (2). Therefore, if OKC gets 3rd and we get 2nd, I would be even more sure that this league is rigged.

EDIT: No idea why OKC getting the 3rd pick has anything to do with anything. Disregard that part.

BMiller52 · Post #7 » by **BMiller52** » Mon May 18, 2009 7:33 pm

Kings #1! Kings #1 Kings #1 say it with me guys

Website · Post #8 » by **Nicky Nix Nook** » Mon May 18, 2009 7:34 pm

BMiller52 wrote:Kings #1! Kings #1 Kings #1 say it with me guys

When we get the 4th pick I want everyone to blame BMiller52. :wink:

perezident · Post #9 » by **perezident** » Mon May 18, 2009 7:40 pm

A nice turn of events for us would be if we lose out on the top two picks and get the third pick. Trade the pick with Noc, Kmart JT to memphis for Conely Gasol, Gay Jaric their pick and a future 1st rounder + fillers

Hawes//#23
Gasol/Greene/Ike
Gay/Jaric/#31
DeRozan/Cisco
Conely/Beno

or something of that nature...this may very well be a terrible trade now because I just thought of some players off the top of my head, but Kings and Memphis are WONDERFUL trading partners. Maybe we'd want Mayo instead of Gay?

BMiller52 · Post #10 » by **BMiller52** » Mon May 18, 2009 7:44 pm

Nicky Nix Nook wrote:
BMiller52 wrote:Kings #1! Kings #1 Kings #1 say it with me guys

When we get the 4th pick I want everyone to blame BMiller52.

You mean thank me when we get the 1st pick :lol:

Post #11 » by **Wolfay** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:24 pm

It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

deNIEd · Post #12 » by **deNIEd** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:37 pm

Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Or maybe we all just understand probability...

Smills91 · Post #13 » by **Smills91** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:42 pm

deNIEd wrote:
Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Or maybe we all just understand probability...

Probably is DOUBLED that we get pick 1-3 over 4. 2-1 odds say we're in the top 3. We have a 50% chance of getting Rubio or Griffin. I like our odds, they're better than anyone elses.

Website · Post #14 » by **Nicky Nix Nook** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:44 pm

deNIEd wrote:
Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Or maybe we all just understand probability...

Wolfay you're expecting the 1st or 2nd, and therefore will be more disappointed IF we get the 3rd or 4th. AND if we do get the 1st or 2nd you will only have met your expectations...nothing more.

The other Kings fans who have had their heart broken so many it has turned to stone (or pessimists) expect the 3rd or 4th and therefore would be ecstatic to get 1 or 2. AND if we get the 3rd or 4th..well its what we expected.

I have probably been one of the most optimistic fans here, so I wouldnt exactly call me a dooms-dayer. I just don't expect chance/Stern to help us out here.

(Actually I did predict that we get eh 2nd pick HOWEVER I am expecting the 3rd or 4th)

deNIEd · Post #15 » by **deNIEd** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:52 pm

Smills91 wrote:
deNIEd wrote:
Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Or maybe we all just understand probability...

Probably is DOUBLED that we get pick 1-3 over 4. 2-1 odds say we're in the top 3. We have a 50% chance of getting Rubio or Griffin. I like our odds, they're better than anyone elses.

Its actually 48% to 52% lol

But yes, our odds are better than anyone else, but just because they are better than everyone else, I'm not about to come up with this entire plan for Sacramento to build around Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio simply because we have "better odds." The odds say that someone else (teams 2-14) are more likely at getting both Griffin AND Rubio.

Now, we are in the best possible situation, but it's still way to early to be celebrating.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best

deNIEd · Post #16 » by **deNIEd** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:56 pm

Nicky Nix Nook wrote:
deNIEd wrote:
Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Or maybe we all just understand probability...

Wolfay you're expecting the 1st or 2nd, and therefore will be more disappointed IF we get the 3rd or 4th. AND if we do get the 1st or 2nd you will only have met your expectations...nothing more.

The other Kings fans who have had their heart broken so many it has turned to stone (or pessimists) expect the 3rd or 4th and therefore would be ecstatic to get 1 or 2. AND if we get the 3rd or 4th..well its what we expected.

Exactly. Every single one of us "doomsdayers" would LOVE to get the #1 pick or even the #2 pick. However, as of now, we simply have a probability.

Like Smills said, history does not alter future probabilities. The past 10 drafts could have had the worst team all miss the #1 pick, it doesn't affect us at all. Our chances don't improve. At the end of the day, we have a 48% chance of a top 2 pick. We have a 25% chance at Griffin and a 75% chance of anyone not named Griffin.

BMiller52 · Post #17 » by **BMiller52** » Mon May 18, 2009 8:58 pm

Wolfay wrote:It's one thing to be pessimistic, but y'all are dooms-dayers. BMiller52 is the only one with the right attitude.

Yup, come on guys we've got to BELIEVE.

Forever we've done the whole "prepare for worst, hope for best" thing but people are so scared of dissapointment that they don't even hope. That hasn't gotten us anywhere. Worst case scenario is we get #4. I still think we get a good player there if we get that pick. But we won't, because we'll BE NUMERO UNO!

Post #18 » by **Wolfay** » Mon May 18, 2009 11:42 pm

It's fine to be pessimistic, but y'all act like we have NO chance at the #1 pick. That's the crap that kills me. Nothing but doom and gloom gets nobody anywhere.

Website · Post #19 » by **Nicky Nix Nook** » Tue May 19, 2009 12:01 am

Well Wolfay I would agree with you if we somehow had direct control. If there was something we could actually do to get the number 1 pick then yes, we should be more positive. But us having a more hopeless perspective towards the draft does not hurt our chances by any means.

deNIEd · Post #20 » by **deNIEd** » Tue May 19, 2009 12:08 am

Nicky Nix Nook wrote:Well Wolfay I would agree with you if we somehow had direct control. If there was something we could actually do to get the number 1 pick then yes, we should be more positive. But us having a more hopeless perspective towards the draft does not hurt our chances by any means.

Well said.

The NBA lottery is the same as playing slot machines. Having the most optimistic or the most pessimistic attitude doesn't change whether or not those three ****ing symbols match up or not.

Being hopeless about the draft isn't a bad thing at all. It represents the absolute worst case scenario. Where the hope should lie is within our ability to trade/draft/sign/develop, that's the only thing we have any control over.