Simple Value Question #5 + #6 or #2

[the_bruce]

This draft is amusing, but I'm not to shocked we ended up at #6. That being said WAS fall to #5 puts MN in a unique position. I want some honest value deduction here. I know the overwhelming majority of you are going to be like...

OMG RUBIO IS HOF in 3 YRS DUMB QUESTION HAHA #2 is WAY Better!!! LOL STUPID

For me I'd take the #5 & #6. It's a no brainer from a risk reward standpoint. One of those guys will end up being a solid franchise building block, and probably both.

rubio has no guarentee to translate into the NBA. He's crafty with the ball, but can't shoot yet. Evans Derozan and harden will certainly be better equipped athleticly entering the league and they all have an area where they seem to excel.

Evans can get to the rim like nobodys business
Harden is crafty and can get to the line
Derozan huge upside very efficient could turn into best of the draft class imo

[C.lupus]

I like Evans/DeRozan/Harden as much as the next guy but we already have a team full of 5/6/7 picks and look where it has gotten us. We need to swing for the fences on a star. Outside of Griffin, I think Rubio has the best chance of being a star in the league. Of course it is a huge risk but it's time to make some calculated risks, imo.

[Devilzsidewalk]

depends what we could get w/ 5 and 6. If we could get 2 of Evans/Harden/Thabeet then I would
But if Jennings or Derozan is in on that then I'd rather take my chances w/ Rubio

[john2jer]

This trade would have to be made at #5 knowing who was available.

Evans/Harden - Assuming their great projected heights/length are true, this is my favorite.
Evans/DeRozan - I like just a hair less, but still very happy.
DeRozan/Harden - The worst pairing of the three and I'd be disappointed.

Basically we'd need someone who could play point guard, and I could see Harden or DeRozan both being great partners with him. DeRozan paired with Harden creates issues.

[Winter Wonder]

There will always be risk, but it is a pretty easy vote on the #2. Aside from the prospects themselves (Yes, I like Rubio far better than the other guards you have listed, though if it were Rubio vs. Evans/Thabeet I would give significant pause), MN needs to consolidate assets into better assets/players/prospects. MN needs better starting talent, not increased depth. I realize there is the thought that both the 5 & 6 could be starters and every bit as good as Rubio, but the later/mid lotto picks just seem to have more flaws at this point and potential is somewhat subjective.

Additionally, the NBA is a superstar league where they get the calls, etc., etc. Rubio has the better chance (I believe) of becoming a higher tier player than the others listed. He already has an "it" factor from essentially being a superstar in Europe. Now the leagues aren't the same nor are the situations, but Rubio should have the better chance of being a stud.

Finally, think of the economics. Now Spain isn't China, but Rubio would bring over a fairly large fanbase, increase exposure for the team (nationally and, more so, internationally), and that leads to greater revenues for the team. I would guess that Rubio may very well be the favorite player in Spain (competing with Gasols, Fernandez mainly).

So from a basketball prospective it may be close, but yes to Rubio. From the superstar prospective, again yes to Rubio (though I understand the shot gun approach). And from the financial stand point, a Big yes to Rubio. The only real concern, as it is with many players, would be the ability to keep the player here long term.

[the_bruce]

I lean hard towards Evans + 1 of Harden/Derozan

If harden sports a ~35 inch vert and that crazy wingspan I probably cant pass him up.

[Foye]

I still prefer Rubio but I like the idea of discussing a trade with the wizards...I don't think we can trade up to Rubio so we should make sure we get the most we can do get out of this damn draft.

[the_bruce]

I could also be on board for

Curry + Evans or Harden

[karch34]

I like Rubio, but I don't have that can't miss feeling about him like I did with Rose or Paul. Obviously part of that is the playing overseas aspect, so I don't have the same feel like you do with a college player.

I lean more towards 5 and 6. Especially with 2 of Evans, DeRozen, and Harden as the options. I think all 3 have a chance to be a star. Agree with j2j that DeRozen and Harden would be the least desirable of the pairings.

[john2jer]

For the record, I voted for Evans and Harden/DeRozan over Rubio. Potentially 2 superstars over 1. I'm starting to cool on Rubio.

[Esohny]

I definitely would prefer Rubio as our PG, but I think you could get the 5 for an acceptable value, where as we'd have to go overboard to get Rubio. I'd definitely want Harden/Evans and not DeRozan/Evans though.

[PeeDee]

If we got both Evans and Harden (assuming they both have a 6'11" wingspan) the other teams' passing lanes would be f'd! It'd be a two man red rover.

[IcemanMN]

I voted for Rubio, but if we could get Curry + Harden, I would rather have that.

[shrink]

What a great poll question, bruceallen!

I voted for Rubio. I am not impressed with the prospects past #2. More importantly, the Wolves need a chance for a star -- we have plenty of young good players.

[john2jer]

If we got both Evans and Harden (assuming they both have a 6'11" wingspan) the other teams' passing lanes would be f'd! It'd be a two man red rover.

That was my thought too. Huge wingspans and closed passing lanes could lead to a lot of tipped passes that would be gobbled up by Love and then fired down court for easy lay-ups.

There we go, I think we should put together a package with Washington that's tentative based on if Harden and Evans are available there at #5 and #6. Once the pick roles around we pull the trigger.

Mike Miller and the Utah 1st for #5, Etan Thomas, and Mike James

We don't take on any bad contracts, get the #5, while Washington picks up a great piece to add to their core and a mid-1st next year, saving them ~5mil this year.

[Worm Guts]

I have hard time believing Harden has the same wingspan as Evans, I also have a hard time believing he's 6'5.5 in shoes. We'll see at the combine.

[john2jer]

Evans is lited at 6'6" a lot of places, but I've seen it's closer to 6'5.5" with a 6'11.25" wingspan. Harden's wingspan is 6'11" apparently, and if he's 6'5", I'm sold, if we find a way to get both of them.

But yes, definitely excited to see the numbers come out at the combine.

[MN Die Hard]

Wow, great question. First of all I agree with c.lupus that we need to find a star...we have enough role players. So for me the question is if we have a better chance of getting a star at 2 or with both 5/6.

I took the 5s and 6s from the last ten drafts and put them in one of four groups (number of each player in ( ):

1. Franchise player (2)
2. Very solid player, desirable by other teams (9)
3. Role player, generally available at little cost (5)
4. Bust (4)

Note: I initially called Yi and Gallinari "too soon to tell" but for the sake of argument I stuck one in #2 and one in #3.

Same thing with the 2s:

1. Franchise player (1)
2. Very solid player, desirable by other teams (6)
3. Role player, generally available at little cost (2)
4. Bust (0)

Note: I left Jay Williams out, not sure where he would have ended up.

IMO it does not appear there is a significantly better chance for a star at #2 than there is if we have BOTH 5/6. There does appear to be far less downside, however. I think the sad thing is that you should only expect to get a franshice player 1 out of 10 times.

To be honest I'm not sure I know which way I'd go right now but maybe this list will help the debate along. Here is how I categorized guys...

5/6
Franchise: Wade, Roy
Solid: Jeff Green, Love, Felton, J Rich, M MIller, Devin Harris, Battier, Kaman, Gallinari
Role player: Yi, Martell Webster, Childress, Demarr Johnson, Wally
Bust: Sheldon, Dujuan Wagner, Tskitishvili, Jon Bender

2
Franchise: Durant
Solid: LMA, Beasley, Marvin, Okafor, Chandler, Steve Francis
Role player: Darko, Stromile
Bust: n/a

Obviously there will be some disagreement with these groupings and that could possibly shift the argument one way or another. e.g. some might consider Beasley and LMA franchise guys. maybe Roy isnt a franchise guy? etc.

[john2jer]

Considering our options at the pick, I like the odds better of Harden and/or Evans becoming star players than Rubio due to size, experience in college versus experience in Europe where the game is different. Also I think Harden and Evans played in roles or systems that translate to the NBA better, plus it's 2 versus 1. Also, I think their games together become franchise changers, where Rubio needs guys to play with him, and I'm not sure we have that. Maybe Love on the pick and roll?

[wolves_fan_82au]

i would rather the #5 and #6 draft derozan and Thabeet
draft Mills and Teague and where set
this is considering miller is the one that goes for the 5th
c-Love/Thabeet/Madsen
PF-Jefferson/Smith
SF-Gomes/Brewer/Cardinal
SG-Derozan/Foye
PG-Teague/Mills/Telfair/brown
we would still need a upgrade at 3 though