What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[Ji]

guys..

there is no window of opportunity. There never was one so we are not defined by a team that needs to do something in the next 2 years. This team whether we keep it intact and add a player through draft or make a trade will never win a championship and probably not pass the 2nd round

[Severn Hoos]

I understand your point, Nate, but tell me - what is the direction of this team?

Excellent question, miller. What I would hope is that sometime between now and the Draft, there is a sit-down meeting with Abe, Ernie, Flip, and Ted Leonsis. At this meeting, Abe tells Ernie that he has faith in him and that he (Ernie) doesn't have to worry about getting fired if the team finishes below a certain number of wins. (Yes, I know this may seem unfair based on what happened to EJ. Too bad. And I want Flip there to hear the same message, so he doesn't fall into the Eddie/Eddy trap of overplaying the veterans, failing to develop the youngsters, and filling the IR with more players than the active roster.)

Abe then goes on to say that it is indeed his "final" wish to win another championship, and he expects Ernie to do everything possible to achieve that goal. Which means paying the Luxury tax, if necessary. (Leonsis is there to back up the statement, and maybe front some of the cash now in exchange for a reduced purchase price later?)

Abe also reiterates that it is a championship he wants, not just a perennial playoff/1st round exit team. So don't do anything stupid and short-sighted like trading the really valuable "future" assets (this year's pick, McGee) for an older player just to try and squeeze out a few more wins this year. Now, if Ernie really believes that getting a Rip or Vince is the best path toward a championship (and miller makes a pretty good case that it is possibly the least worst option at this point), then go ahead. But don't do it just to get to 45 wins this year because you're afraid you'll get fired.

In summary - your job is safe, do what you need to do, and don't sacrifice the long-term goal for short-term success (which is really mediocrity). And Leonsis is there to assure Ernie & Flip that nothing will change if/when he's in charge. (I know, sad thought - but I'd have to think it would cross Ernie's mind that his benefactor may not always be in position to protect him.)

So to me, the direction should be clear - make the most of the current window, but not at the expense of truly contending somewhere along the line. For this offseason, the best bet may just be to bide their time. You never know what may come up down the road. I'm sure the Celtics didn't envision Garnett & Allen when they were going through their brutal season (& Lottery!) 2 years ago - they were hoping for Oden. Well, what they got turned out to be a lot better.

That's how I'd approach the offseason.

[Tyrone Messby]

At least we didn't hobble into the playoffs again and get bounced in the first round again.

The season from hell resulted in

EJ being fired.
Flip as new coach.
Adding Crittenton.
Subtracting Daniels.
Top 5 pick.

Negatives
4-7 extra games.
Adding Mike James.
Not getting Griffin after witnessing one of the worst Wizards teams ever with Tapscott as the coach.

Still not worth it, but also not as bad as a 15+ pick with another first round exit. I'm trying here..

[tigerblood]

Amare for Jamison/blatche/#5

[Rafael122]

It's a long shot, but apparently Rubio's buyout is somewhere around $8 million. I know the NBA can only put in $500,000, but do you guys think that buyout could come into play and affect his draft stock? Look at the teams ahead of us, besides the Clippers. All have money trouble. The Grizzlies owner doesn't want to spend, the Thunder don't need a point, and the Kings are losing money.

After thinking it over, instead of trying to trade out, I'm thinking what it would take to trade to #2.

[Severn Hoos]

It's a long shot, but apparently Rubio's buyout is somewhere around $8 million. I know the NBA can only put in $500,000, but do you guys think that buyout could come into play and affect his draft stock? Look at the teams ahead of us, besides the Clippers. All have money trouble. The Grizzlies owner doesn't want to spend, the Thunder don't need a point, and the Kings are losing money.

After thinking it over, instead of trying to trade out, I'm thinking what it would take to trade to #2.

Interesting point, Raf. I don't think it would affect his stock per se, but it could have an impact in other ways. The reporting has been that his plan is to get endorsement deals to pay off the $8M to make it worthwhile. But I don't think there are a ton of endorsement deals available in Memphis. Maybe there's some behind the scenes wrangling going on with Nike (or whoever) to get him to a major market or leave him in Europe? I did hear that his buyout actually goes up next year, so if not now, it could be 2 years or more before he comes over?

I don't think the cheapskateness of the ownership of the Grizzlies is the issue, because they'll pay the salary regardless, and wouldn't be paying the endorsement deals anyway. But if Ricky/his agent/his shoe company wants to push him to a major market, there may be some plausibility there. Unfortunately, I don't think we're that market either. Watch out for the Knicks, though...

[MF23]

If I had a choice of these options I'd take Blair at 5. He is a safe bet to help the Wizards. If not Blair then I'd draft Curry just to insure this team had a good pg on the court.

If I were to trade the pick I'd look for a bigman. I'd look for someone who can handle the 4 spot. AK, Chandler, Okafor-I've got a feeling CHA would trade him in a deal for Curry-, B. Wright or Biedrins maybe Bogut. I'd bank on the desire of teams wanting Curry or another pg at 5.

Now, what I hope the FO can pull off would be to bring in an allstar caliber player by combining the pick with some players on the roster. Amare will have to be traded by the Suns and the Raptors are kind of in the same boat with Chris Bosh. We know those 2 players are FA next summer and reportedly don't want to resign with there teams. Not trading Arenas or Haywood would be ideal since those two would be the hardest to replace. I really believe you could win a championship with Arenas, Haywood and one of those two players. This is the franchises best hope and I know the FO is looking into adding either of these two guys. There is also a slim possibility Boozer may end up forcing a sign and trade scenario. The Wizards interest in him might not be strong though.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Argh... could someone point me to nate's post where he summarizes the zards luxury cap situation? Can't find it.

Updated with the #5 draft pick pay scale. I'm assuming Haywood is resigned for $8M a year, McGuire is resigned for $3M a year, and Pecherov is cut in 2010. Salary cap and luxtax projections are estimates based on various media articles I have read.

Code: Select all

Player           08/09  09/10  10/11  11/12
Arenas,Gilbert   14.65  16.19  17.73  19.27
Jamison,Antawn    9.93  11.65  13.36  15.08
Butler,Caron      9.25  10.03  10.81    - 
Thomas,Etan       6.86   7.35    -      - 
James,Mike        6.20   6.40    -      - 
Haywood,Brendan   5.50   6.00   8.00   8.00
Songaila,Darius   4.26   4.55   4.84    - 
Stevenson,Desha   3.62   3.89   4.15    - 
Blatche,Andray    2.74   3.00   3.26   3.52
Young,Nick        1.60   1.75   2.69    - 
Pecherov,Olesky   1.45   1.55    -      - 
McGee,JaVale      1.39   1.50   1.60   2.46
Javaris Critten   1.38   1.48   2.28    - 
McGuire,Dominic   0.71   0.83   3.00   3.00
2009 pick (#5)     -     2.72   2.93   3.13
2010 pick (#23)    -      -     1.20   1.29
2011 pick (#23)    -      -      -     1.24

Total Salary     69.54  78.88  75.86  57.00
Salary Cap       58.68  58.00  56.00  55.20
Luxury Tax       71.15  70.76  68.32  67.34
Money Available   1.61  -8.12  -7.54  10.34

So are we just going to let Butler walk? If we sign no more draft picks besides the #5, dump Javaris and Pecherov and McGuire, we could offer him maybe $11 million in 2011.

We can avoid the luxury tax in 2010 if sign no more picks besides the #5, dump Javaris and Pecherov, give McGuire 3 mil, sign Brendan for $9 mil, and trade Songaila or Stevenson plus a #1 pick (or a swap of #1 picks) for expirings.

God we're screwed. The only thing that gives me hope is that everyone else is just as screwed as we are, probably.

[queridiculo]

Anybody think New York would go for a move that sends Butler, the 5th pick and some filler for Chandler and Larry Hughes?

[yungal07]

Anybody think New York would go for a move that sends Butler, the 5th pick and some filler for Chandler and Larry Hughes?

And this makes the Wizards better in which way exactly? Last time I checked, Butler was better than Chandler, and the #5 is better than Hughes, so you must be looking at this differently from me.

[Ced67]

Is Harden dropping for the same reason why Paul Pierce dropped to 10?

Damn, thats a hell of a comparison. You really got me thinkin' now. I haven't been high on Harden because of his lack of athleticism but if he has the same kind of sneaky athleticism that Paul Pierce has it might be worth picking him up at 5.

[Benjammin]

Anybody think New York would go for a move that sends Butler, the 5th pick and some filler for Chandler and Larry Hughes?

Wow, that's just historically bad. That makes Wes Unseld look like Jerry West or something.

[Dat2U]

If we had 5 or 6 years to develop a championship team, I don't think anyone on this board (including myself) would have a problem drafting Harden, Curry or Evans. But that's not the reality of the situation. We have 2 years, 3 at most. Harden/Curry/Evans won't make a significant impact in that time. Hamilton/Carter will.

Why do we have two years at most? If you ask me it all boils down to one player. Antawn Jamison. He's really the only greybeard on the roster of consequence. He'll turn 33 yrs old next month.

Gilbert Arenas is 27. Caron Butler is 29. Brendan Haywood is 29. None have the wear & tear associated with guys who came straight out of HS when they were 17 or 18 like Tracy McGrady or Jermaine O'Neal who aged significantly once they hit 30. The core of Arenas, Butler & Haywood has more than 2 seasons left. Outside of these guys, the team is relatively young with guys like Blatche, Young & McGee.

The key though is what to do with Jamison. If he's a vital piece to the puzzle as the Wizards would like to believe, then yes, time is ticking. If the Wizards could somehow come to the realization that Jamison with his age, salary & defensive concerns no longer fit into the team's plans, then the window of opportunity becomes longer.

Personally, I've long felt that Jamison's true impact in terms of wins and losses was overrated due to the defensive issues his presence presents. It's time to move on IMO. As mentioned earlier Caron & Antawn at F positions together makes it real hard to field a capable defensive team. It's a fatal flaw IMO that will stunt the Wizards attempt at contending no matter who we add.

So adding guys like the 31 yr old Rip Hamilton, the soon-to-be 30 yr old Michael Redd coming off of ACL & MCL tears and the 32 yr old Vince Carter for a top five pick and possibly a young player only exacerbates the situation by "going all in" with a flawed roster that's not going to win no matter what. Why go for broke with a core that isn't capable of contending? Until you address the PF position this team is in perpetual state of mediocrity.

For me the direction now after the lottery would be "harvesting my nuts" in order to acquire that stud PF. Whether it be Bosh, Amare or Dirk. It would be the Kevin McHale strategy. But instead of just looking for the next Ray Allen (because we don't need him with two quality scorers in Gil & Caron), I'm looking to use my young talent to acquire our version of KG. Now a #5 pick, Blatche & expirings may not be enough to acquire that guy right now, but until then I'm focused on adding talent to our roster to get to that point & making the talent we currently have look better.

If it means drafting the best player available then so be it. If it means further developing the young guys (instead of trying to use them to clear salary, ahem Lyrical Rico), then so be it. If it means trading Jamison or whoever to add another young prospect or create cap flexibility to add another piece in other ways, then so be it. Bottom line it's probably not going to happen right away but it's time to accept the fact the fact that we aren't contenders. Acting like one by trading young for old doesn't help us, it only complicates things even further.

[Severn Hoos]

How about the #5, _____, and Crittenton

for

Josh Childress & the #19?

Hawks give up two pieces that they probably aren't really counting on anyway for a Top 5 pick. They do have to take on some salary, but get a hometown prospect to groom at PG (they don't seem too enamored with Law). Maybe they want Hill, or move up to snag Lawson (too high, but guarantees they'd get him) or one of the combo/PGs? Jennings, perhaps?

I'm picturing Etan (pleeeeaase!) as the filler, but it could be James/Stevenson/Songaila. I actually think they might want Etan (hard as that may be to believe) since he'd theoretically help them up front, and is expiring.

At #19, the Wiz take BPA from among the usual suspects we've been discussing. Someone has to drop. And if they get really lucky, Collison is still on the board at #33.

Arenas/Collison/James (buyout?)
Childress/Young/McGuire
Butler/Childress/#19 - Budinger? Sam Young? Clark/Williams? James Johsnon?
Jamison/Blatche/Songaila
Haywood/McGee/Pech

Not yet a contender, but a step forward, IMO.

[Soup's Uncle]

I'd dig getting Harden if we stood pat and kept the pick. He seems like he could step in right away and just be asked to hit some open shots.

[Dat2U]

Anybody think New York would go for a move that sends Butler, the 5th pick and some filler for Chandler and Larry Hughes?

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

[LyricalRico]

I say draft Blair because I believe the mocks are all wrong -- that guy's a beast.

I just finished a phone call with a friend who feels the same way and man was he convincing. I'm also intrigued by whoever compared Harden to Paul Pierce when he came out. If I had to rank right now, I'd probably say:

Blair
Harden
Curry

And I don't know if that changes even if Curry measures out at 6'3 w/o shoes.

[Dat2U]

How about the #5, _____, and Crittenton

for

Josh Childress & the #19?

Hawks give up two pieces that they probably aren't really counting on anyway for a Top 5 pick.

Exactly, why does it take a top 5 pick to get two pieces that they probably aren't really counting on anways?

Why are we giving incredible value to a division rival that we'll likely be competing with for playoff positioning?

Why not use some other assets? Why not Nick Young and filler? Or Young & Critt? Why is the #5 the only asset people want to use to acquire average talent?

I don't hate Childress but it wasn't like he was lighting it up overseas. He's also likely to be looking for an above MLE sized contract. Considering our financial situation, I don't see the benefit in adding an expensive role player when we could draft a relatively cheap one with more upside on the rookie scale.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ernie already leaked his draft strategy with the Griffin, Rubio or bust thing. Sure, he likes to play it tricksy this time of year but for once I believe him. The only way I see this changing(and it would make it very obvious his strategy would change as well) is if we dealt Young and Blatche before the draft for a vet, allowing us to take a gamble on a Hill or Evans. Barring that type of move, we are going for best fit, instant contributor type. James Harden.
I think all the Harden haters on this board are pretty ridiculous. No, he doesn't have a 40 inch vertical or a 3.14 shuttle time but neither do a hell of a lot of other good to great players in this league. By the time next years playoffs came around I think he would be averaging about 15/3/3 with solid percentages which would ALREADY be an upgrade to Deshawn. I think his strength is also a pretty big asset and when paired with his smarts, will help him to be at least an average defender next year. Let's not forget the guy was only a sophomore this year (19 years old) so there is plenty of room for improvement in his game and body.

I will take that any day over Vince for $15mil or a broken down Redd. The only alternative to this I see is trading for Amare or Bosh. I'd love to see either of those, especially if it means we send out Jamison(to clear the log jam and cap space).

Agreed.

I'm completely opposed to giving the pick and filler for an over-the-hill, overpaid SG like Vince or Rip. And I wouldn't trade for Redd because we don't need another all offense/no defense starter.

The bottom line is that we will be hamstrung for years if we acquire another 8-figure salary to go alongside the Big Three + Haywood. It just can't work in this league. If our Big Three isn't good enough to get it done with just the help of role players on rookie contracts and MLE salaries, then the problem is our Big Three, not our bench.

I'd much rather just draft Harden at #5 than get Vince/Rip/Redd etc. We won't win a championship, but we'll keep the salary under control so that we can make a move later.

Simply keeping Harden might work out well.

I would still be on board for 15Mil Vince Carter if all EG had to give up was Young, Etan, DeShawn/Darius, etc plus a future first.

Vince Carter's a lot better than Nick Young. Vince is better than Caron, too, IMO. And even more durable the last three years (45 more games played).

The Wizards want to win games and I'm thinking paying the luxury tax for Carter IF they can still somehow draft some like Blair IS the way to go IF they want Abe to see anything special before the worst might happen.

Harden's the simple, easy way, and he might be just fine.

Carter for scraps would be awesome.

[Severn Hoos]

Dat - fair enough. But when I see people playing the "_______" would be a top 10 pick in this year's draft (Young, McGee, Blatche), I definitely think the same is true for Childress. I would take him with the 5th pick if he were in this draft, and I am very confident that he'll be better than anyone picked at #5 for the next 2-3 years. Plus, in the scenario I posted, we'd be unloading Etan (and there was much rejoicing!) and picking up the #19. So it's a slide of 14 slots to dump salary & pick up a solid (IMO) role player. I think it's a pretty fair deal on talent/value.

As far as the idea of Childress on this team - I think the main thing is if you think he can play SG. If he's strictly a 6th Man/SF off the bench, then no - absolutely not worth it. But if he can start and give you 25-30 minutes at the SG/SF spot, then I think whatever deal you work out (probably around $6M per) would be worthwhile. Dumping Etan makes it cap-neutral in the 1st year and buys some time to potentially make other moves. A swingman rotation of Childress, Butler, Young (instant offense off the bench), and McGuire (defense/rebounding) is pretty nice.

I don't know, maybe I'm just worn out trying to find the silver lining....