2010 NY PICK: Jazz Dodge Another Bullet (one of the last)

[erudite23]

And another one bites the dust.

With the Clippers winning the lottery and the Knicks staying pat at #8, the Jazz have dodged the last meaningful bullet headed towards them in the story of the 2010 pick. The Knicks were a tier-2 awful team last year. Not one of the select few teams that legitimately were horrible enough to warrant "worst team in the NBA" consideration, but in that next tier down (up?), in the "wow, these guys are really bad" group.

Historically, very few teams finish in tier-1 for two consecutive seasons. Just like championship level play, pathetic bottom-of-the-league play is also hard to sustain from year to year. Maybe even more so. From this perspective, it is good news that NY didn't have a 17 win season this year. Those types of seasons come around very rarely, even for the most inept of franchises. Had they done so, we could basically kiss any hope of a bottom 5 finish for next year good bye, as the combination of an elite rookie, the change that inevitably comes after a year like that, and finally just the dumb luck necessary to produce that type of poor play would combine to vault them to at least 8th or 9th.


Now, the stars appear to be aligning, the last of which is their failure to jump into the top 3 in the draft lottery.

Considering their likely refusal to give David Lee his market value, combined with the equally likely defection of Nate Robinson, they look to be fielding the worst roster in the NBA going into next year. How does a Duhon/Hughes/Chandler/Harrington/Jeffries SL with Stephen Curry and Danilo Gallinari coming off the bench sound? Like a Mozart symphony, that's how.


I said before the season that I was hoping for an 8-11 finish with the beginnings of a positive vibe and a mid-low lottery draft pick, but not enough momentum to truly excite the fanbase or the players and catapult the team to a possible 2010 revival. Them being too bad or too good would be horrible news for the 2010 season. If they were too bad, they would have gotten a top pick and change would be called for. Enough to spur them into the playoffs? Probably not, but still likely enough to propel them out of the top 8-10. While too much good stuff could easily snowball into the gritty 40 win over-achieving type playoff team we've seen in so many guises through the years.

No, this was perfect.

Everything is going just right boys. Come this time next year, we could be looking at a future game changer headed our way. Keep keepin' the faith.

[Pai Gow]

Can't wait for our "Following the Knicks" thread.. We'll seriously be having 2 game threads on a regular basis with this type of situation.

I hope Lebron/Wade give the Knicks management at least a sniff that they would be willing to play for them at the right price just so they make sure they do not go out and get any decent FA's.

[stevebozell]

Why would Lebron and Wade want to play for a totally awful team? In my mind, the Knicks are going to try and show their prospectiv FA's that they will compete.

[carrottop12]

I'm just hoping for a quiet summer from the Knicks, hopefully they lose at least one of the Robinson/Lee combo and don't get anything in return. They more they lose the more we win.

They have a bunch of player options this year with Eddy Curry, Al Harrington, and Quentin Richardson worth about 10 million each which is far above market value so they are all likely to pick them up. If all three of those get picked up the Knicks will be guaranteed to be at the $69,000,000 salary cap and won't have any real flexibility to sign Lee or Robinson.

The Knicks line up next year could honestly look like this...

PG: Duhon
SG: Hughes/Mobley/Richardson
SF: Chandler/Gallinari
PF: Harrington
C: Jeffries/Curry

That's $69,000,000 in players right there. Then they will have a 2.5 automatically tacked on with their #9 pick so anything they sign above that is likely to be over the luxury tax.

Unless they can pull of some big trades (they do have quite a few expiring contracts which they are rumored to want to hold onto for the 2010 offseason) they are going to be bad next year.

[babyjax13]

Mobley can't even play any more because of his heart condition.

[carrottop12]

Ih thats right. That's how obscure the formerly talented players of the Knicks have become.

[erudite23]

One word of caution on Mobley, though, his contract will be covered at an 80% rate by insurance due to his heart condition. That makes his contract extremely valuable to teams looking to get under the tax for NEXT season. It's like having an 7m trade exception to offer to teams. The only problem there is that they will likely need to get another expiring in return.

All in all, it will be very difficult for them to make any moves to give them substantial help for next season without taking on contracts that go beyond 2010.

The worst possible scenario would be them finding a way to parlay the Mobley contract and maybe even, for example, the Richardson contract in return for a player like Emeka Okafor or Tyson Chandler who is worth hurting their 2010 cap room to keep. The good news in this regard is that they just don't have the assets to ship to teams like Toronto (Bosh), Dallas (Nowitzki), Phoenix (Stoudemire), or San Antonio (Ginobili) in conjunction with the expiring contracts to make it worth those teams' while to ship one of those players out rather than run the risk of losing them for nothing the following year in FA anyhow.

For a bit of an insider perspective, head over to the Knicks board and read the thread I created there to inquire about this very thing.

[babyjax13]

The Knick fans raised some pretty good points in that thread, erudite. I think that they have the capability to be a decent team if they hold on to Lee and Nate (with Walsh in that is a possibility) but even then I see a Pacer's like season from this year (13th pick for them). I think in all likely-hood that Lee returns and Nate is the one who leaves (contrary to popular opinion) and that they end up in the 30-35 win area (which would get us about the 6th or 7th pick with a chance of moving up).

[carrottop12]

I expect them to be as good or worse then they were this year.

I don't see them getting better especially know that they are likely to lose either Robinson or Lee. I just don't see that roster getting over 33 or so wins. And even that is a bit of a stretch. That should be a top 10 pick if that is the case.

I would really love to see the Jazz move into the top 7.

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

I think the Jazz will have legit shot at getting this pick near the 1-5 range...just a hunch but I think its going to happen.

The thing I am most worried about is the Jazz trading the pick away in some draft day deal this year or later on in the off season. As far as I am concerned the NY pick should be labeled as "untouchable" when looking at different options this off season.

[hoops4life]

It is a shame that we can't trade this year's pick for a 1st rounder next year. That way we can use it as another assest with the NY to move up a little more... if the need is there.

[loserX]

It is a shame that we can't trade this year's pick for a 1st rounder next year. That way we can use it as another assest with the NY to move up a little more... if the need is there.

We can trade this year's pick for a 1st rounder next year.

[DelaneyRudd]

Yes, as soon as the season ended the NY pick was guaranteed. The Jazz couldn't trade it before the trading deadline because the NY pick could have been this year.

[erudite23]

Here's an analysis of the Knicks roster that I was originally going to post in the thread that I created on the Knicks board...but considering the reception that they gave my quite respectful and polite inquiry, I decided against it.


The objective of this excercise is to quantify the quality of every roster on the basis of four different criteria:

1) Presence of franchise player(s)
2) Quality of teams best player
3) Number of star-quality players
4) Number of starter quality players

This is an exercise in which John Hollinger's PER is extremely useful. I know there are problems with PER, and we have talked about that ad-naseum. But the reality is that its a fairly solid approximation of a players statistical production on a per-possession basis. In the long run, it balances out fairly well.

Here is each roster according to :
Highest single player PER/Number of Players in top 20/...top 50/Number of players 15.00 or above

So, for example the Jazz would look like this:
21.13 (DWill)/in in top 20/2 top 50 (DWill, Millsap)/6 over 15.00 or 21.13/1/2/6


Now, without further ado, here is the entire league for the 08/09 season:

Atl: 18.26/0/1/5
Bos: 21.32/1/2/6
Cha: 18.64/0/1/2
Chi: 17.01/0/0/6
Cle: 31.76/1/1/3
Dal: 23.20/1/2/6
Den: 19.08/0/3/6
Det: 17.52/0/0/6
GS: 19.16/0/1/5
Hou: 22.74/1/1/5
Ind: 21.88/1/1/4
LAC: 19.72/0/2/2
LAL: 24.46/2/3/5
Mem: 16.74/0/0/4
Mia: 30.46/1/1/3
Mil: 18.64/0/1/5
Min: 23.16/1/2/3
NJ: 21.65/1/2/3
NY: 19.07/0/2/3
NO: 30.04/1/2/2
OKC: 20.85/1/1/2
Orl: 25.44/1/2/4
Phi: 18.71/0/2/5
Pho: 22.33/1/4/6
Por: 24.08/1/2/6
Sac: 19.25/0/1/1
SA: 24.50/3/3/5
Tor: 22.18/1/2/3
UT: 21.13/1/2/6
Wash: 20.63/0/2/3

So there's the list. Some interesting points:

1) There are thirteen teams without a single player who finished top 20 in PER. Those teams are:
Was
Chi
Det
Atl
Mil
Cha
Phi
Sac
LAC
GS
Den
Mem

Of those teams, Washington, Detroit, the Clippers, and Denver all have a player who has at one time been a regular top 20ish guy in his career whose performance fell off this year. Of the remaining nine:

- Chicago has Derrick Rose who looks to be a guy like that.
- Memphis has a potential top 20 guy in OJ May, and the #2 pick in this draft. Not bankable, but something to pin their hopes on.

That leaves 7 teams without a real, true game changing, carry-the-team-on-his-back kind of guy. Those teams are Milwaukee, Golden State, Atlanta, Philly, Charlotte, Sacramento and NY.

- GS has a slew of young players, including a future All Star shot-blocker rebounder and a high scoring guard that are both second tier stars in the making.
-Milwaukee has a really good center to build around and a glut of pretty good players as well, enough to keep them as at least a fringe playoff team.
- Philly already has a playoff team and is built for likely mediocrity for the foreseeable future; they don't have a franchise guy (unless Brand makes an amazing comeback) but have just enough good players to keep them respectable and locked in to the 5-8 playoff seeds.
- Atlanta has a bunch of really good guys, most of which are still young and developing. Josh Smith, Horford or Marvin Williams still have the ability/potential to become a franchise player, but in the event that doesn't happen, they are still well built to win a lot of games anyway, with depth as opposed to star power.


There are 3 teams who didn't have a single player that finished in the top 50: Chicago, Detroit and Memphis.

Here are the rankings of teams with the lowest team PER leader:

30. Mem 16.74
29. Chi 17.01
28. Det 17.52
27. Atl 18.26
26. Mil 18.64
25. Cha 18.64
24. Phi 18.71
23. NY 19.07


New York finished with two players in the top 50, David Lee (34) and Nate Robinson (36). Their next best player? Al Harrington @ 15.98 (107).

Players of 15.00 are supposed to be average. However, with the skewing of the PER numbers favoring the higher side, due to the massive amounts of minutes that the best players play, 15 is really the barrier that denotes starting quality players. Here are teams ranked according to the number of starting caliber players:

Sac 1
OKC 2
LAC 2
Cha 2
NO 2
NYK 3
NJ 3
Cle 3
Mia 3
Min 3
Tor 3
Was 3
Ind 4
Mem 4
Orl 4
Atl 5
GS 5
Hou 5
LAL 5
Mil 5
Phi 5
SA 5
Bos 6
Chi 6
Dal 6
Den 6
Det 6
Pho 6
Por 6
UT 6

In the overall assessment of things, here is how the Knicks rank in each of the 4 criteria:

1) their best player was the 8th worst best player in the NBA
2) they are one of 13 teams who did not have a top 20 player
3) they had two top 50 players, good for a 13 way tie for 5th best in the league. However, of the other twelve teams with two, only two others failed to field a single player without a PER of 20 or above.
4) their 3 starting caliber players place them in the bottom 25% of the league



Now, this entire analysis is based upon the roster WITH Lee and Robinson. Now, let's take those two away and what do we have?
15.98/0/0/1

That would leave them with just a single starting quality player, Al Harrington. The four criteria would be:

1) Worst best returning player in the NBA
2) Still no franchise guy
3) Zero top 50 players
4) Tied with Sacto for having just one starting caliber player....and at least they have Kevin Martin.


What does this all mean?

If Lee and/or Robinson return, they will still be amongst the worst rosters in the league. They lack a true go-to or cornerstone guy that can carry them and draw double teams. They have a couple nice pieces that are still fairly young and growing (but let's be real, they are 5th year players, so they should be pretty close to what they are ever going to be). And the rest of the roster just aren't worthy of being starters in the NBA based upon their recent production. The things they have going for them are actually their savvy management, top notch coaching and the good will that was starting to build at times last season. This team can realistically only expect to win 30 games. The wild card being young Gallinari and whomever they take with the 8th pick. Should Gallo and said pick give them moderately solid production, they could up that number to 35. The ONLY chance they have of taking it above that is if a wild card like Gallinari and/or the pick busts out and gives them top 50 production, and even then 42 wins is the most I can possibly see.


...now. If Lee and Robinson go without being replaced by players who are at or near their quality, things get really ugly. They would have the worst roster in the NBA, as far as proven production is concerned. At that point, their only hope of finishing outside of the cellar would have to be a blowup by Gallinari, the rookie or something out of left field like Wilson Chandler becoming a bona fide stud or Larry Hughes getting back to his 2003 form.

All told, this is one of the worst rosters in the league already, with a good chance of getting worse. The only hope that the team has of staying out of the cellar is by managing the team superbly and keeping spirits up, while praying that injuries and the grind of losing don't start a snowball effect. With Lee and Robinson, I see them doing something similar to what they posted this year. Without them, it could get really, really ugly.

[nghedman]

Great post, it was exactly what I was looking for and it happened to be at the top of the threads. I thought I was going to have to do a search on the NY pick. Cool insight with the stats. Where was Boozer calculated in those stats by the way? Did his injury effect anything there? If the injury did soften Boozer, uugh the Jazz really tanked it big time this year.

What benefit do the Knicks have of reeking their arena with the smell of losing? Is it just waiting it out one more year so they clear their books to pick up free agents in 2010?

Just to specify a detail stricter here; by the way the Knicks have Birds rights to Lee and Robinson so they can sign them for whatever they want if they are willing to accept the luxury tax penalty. And NY has plenty of sponsor money to pay the fine and not worry...... if they are setting up for 2010. and want to do so........right?

[erudite23]

Yes, but in order for them to maintain the ability to sign TWO max free agents, they can't take on any more salary then they already have committed for 2010. If they stick to that, then they will only be able to take on other players that have contracts expiring after next season. If they bring either of Lee or Robinson back, they can waive bye bye to signing two max guys, and will then only be able to get one.

Their biggest problem right now is that they don't have any picks of value, even the #8 pick they hold in this year's draft is relatively worthless. No team will pay a premium for that pick. Aside from that, the only thing they have are expiring contracts...which they need to hold on to in order to make room for next season.

They really don't have much wiggle room. D'Antoni and Walsh have both spoken like a major shake up is in store, but the reality is that they dont have a ton of options.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

It is a shame that we can't trade this year's pick for a 1st rounder next year. That way we can use it as another assest with the NY to move up a little more... if the need is there.

Extra picks don't help you move up in the draft at the highest picks.

The #8 and #9 picks this year aren't worth the #1. The #8, 9, 10 picks combined this year aren't worth the #1. 1 game changer is worth more than a basket of role players.

If the Knicks are intent on 2010, they could lose both Lee and Robinson and have an absolutely horrible season.

[hoops4life]

So you mean when the Jazz traded 6, 14, and 24 or 26(?) to the 3rd pick, the extra picks didn't help out? I am not saying that they can trade the 8th to get to number one. Sometimes you don't have to get the number one for a game changer. Jazz got Deron Williams with the #3 and Chris Paul was #4.

[carrottop12]

The Jazz didn't give up the 14th pick along with the 6th and the 26th, they gave a conditional first rounder in the next draft. Bet Portland wishes they had that one back.

[drivewayball]

I don't understand the excitement or intrigue. If you take a look at the prospective draft for 2010 on nbadraft.net, you won't see anyone you would care about drafting anyway. Trade the pick now and put a good team together for next season.