Jefferson is a center, not a pF

[revprodeji]

http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/5/31/89 ... k-you-know

Very good article. A couple highlights.

Big Al has a standing reach of 9'2", placing him well within the range of what makes for a serviceable NBA center. His standing reach is equal to or higher than the following players: Nene (+1), Aaron Gray (+1.5), Spencer Hawes (even), Joakim Noah (+3.5), Al Horford (+3), and Chris Bosh (+1). It is only -0.5 inches less than Andrew Bogut and Chris Kaman.

**I did not know that**

Kevin Love led the Wolves with a 7.4 WARP in his rookie season. Despite some often-heard sentiments about him being a terrible defensive player, the 20 year old rookie actually held his opponents to 86.6% of their per-possession production. Love even led the team in defensive win shares.

but the ultimate point here is that a) Jefferson has adequate length for an NBA center, b) he should show some form of career progression on the defensive end (hopefully involving better effort and awareness), c) the Wolves haven't done their big men any favors with guys like Foye and Sebastian Telfair on the perimeter, and d) Kevin Love is their second best player and has all the makings of someone who can be a legit #3 upper-level glue guy on a winning squad; you just don't draft an unknown big or bring in a defensive specialist to take away from the 35 mpg that this guy should be getting night-in and night-out.

He makes some good arguments.

[JR Rider]

good article. thanks for sharing this.

this furthers my belief that we do not need to address a frontcourt player high in the draft. especially with pekovic coming over in a year or two.

[revprodeji]

The standing reach was a huge thing for me. I did not know that.

[Devilzsidewalk]

but Jefferson has generally a finesse game on offense and against PFs he can get good shots off with his general size advantage while against centers he has to rely more on quickness and I don't think that plays to his skills. Regardless of standing reach, he seems about the same against centers at Love, so put Love there, let him match up against centers where he can (in theory) take them outside where centers don't like to go and use his jumper, inside he can rebound with anybody and as mentioned, their post defense is about the same, I dunno. Thats what I like. Granted you can't force other teams to put their center on Love, but on defense thats what I'd do.

[john2jer]

That's pretty much been my argument all along. Close the revolving door on the perimeter and things will be a lot easier for Love and Jefferson. That's why Evans and Holiday have been bouncing around the top of my wish list. Both are big guards(hopefully both point guards), that have great frames, are already solid defenders, with the potential to be excellent defenders.

Also with Brewer coming back at 119%, we're already improving in perimeter defense.

Kind of why I'm liking the talk of Clark(if he falls), or Daye at #18 as weakside help defenders.

[Winter Wonder]

Awwww, Rev! You are crushing my Thabeet feelings....





You still have to draft him for value if nothing else if he slides to #6

And though he may not be as high on the "need" list, MN would still be a better team with him than without him..... sigh, but there MAY be a better fitting prospect for SIMILAR value in our pick range. There, I said it.


I still want Thabeet though...... I think.

[jpatrick]

Even if Jefferson plays significant minutes at center I still think we need a third big who is an athletic defensive presence, and I think the majority of us would prefer that player to be more of a center so he could play efficiently with either Love or Jefferson on the floor. For example, if we made a trade with Chicago and got one of their young bigs in the package, Noah is a better fit then Thomas because while Thomas can play with Jeffeson effectively, a Thomas/Love frontcourt is pretty short.

On a side note, I finally got around to watching the Euroleague final four games. Pekovic is exactly as advertised. To me he's the most important player on that team, he uses his brute strength to get great position and score on the block. He doesn't have Jefferson's variety of post moves but has a nice jump hook; he's kinda mechanical though and very much a black hole. I'd say he's a Jefferson level athlete as a big and definitely not a huge shot blocker or a great defender (either man or help). You can't tell alot from two games but those were my general impressions.

One other thing stood out about Pek, he whined to the refs about absolutely EVERYTHING. The games are available on ESPN 360 (last week at least) so if you have a couple hours to burn it's kind of interesting to watch.

[john2jer]

The few clips I saw from Pek showed he could actually get out and run a little bit and finish on the break. Was kind of exciting. Even still, I'm not going to get all wet over it until he actually swims across the pond.

[mandurugo]

One of Jefferson's problems on defense is that he is easily over-powered by centers. Guys like Kendrick Perkins just move right through him. By playing at the four there are fewer guys who can simply overpower him. The advantage for him is that there are more guys who are a bit sluggish playing center; Jefferson definitely has nimble feet, but he ain't fast.

[big3_8_19_21]

This just further solidifies my desire for a Holiday/Henderson back court to bolster perimeter D. Pek/Love/Al will be a great rotation.

[Zeitgeister]

I can't get the idea out of my head that the only reason people would say that Jefferson is a center is because they want to rationalize that picking Kevin Love was a good idea. Offensively, he is like a center, but many people will say that the position a player plays is most important how they matchup defensively. Post defense always has and probably always will be the most important component to championship level success.

A Jefferson/Love front court doesn't exactly scare anyone on the perimeter from driving to the lane. Hell, I don't think Andrew Bogut would be a very good fit next to Jefferson either because he isn't a very good defender. Offensive fit with Jefferson isn't as important as defensive fit. I've still never liked Thabeet though, I think he's a stiff and we need too many pieces on this team to pick someone who's only skill is shotblocking high in the lottery. Since we already have this front court, we might as well work with it, I understand that.

Standing reach is only one tool for defense, and the players he compares Al's length with that are actually decent defenders are all more athletic then him.

Shoring up our perimeter defense will help a lot, but lets be real here, shots close to the rim are converted at the highest percentage on the floor by far. Also, no matter how good your perimeter defense is (see the Rockets) really good players are going to get to the rim regardless and a real threat at the rim is the best chance of deterring these players.

A player like BJ Mullens with our second pick would be excellent because while he is very raw now, he has the potential to be a real difference maker if he puts it together. You can't ask for much more from a mid first round pick.

[john2jer]

Bogut, LOL when healthy, is excellent at taking charges. Although I don't think a 7 footer with a wide body is meant for taking charges.

[big3_8_19_21]

Zeitgeister - I like your sig. That guy's a tool.

[Zeitgeister]

Zeitgeister - I like your sig. That guy's a tool.

I agree. I don't want to talk about it too much though, he might report me to the mods.

[younggunsmn]

Offensively speaking, center is an arbitrary term referring to either of 2 prettymuch interchangeable post players.

It is on the defensive end that PF and Center are primarily differentiated.
Kind of the difference between cornerback and safety in the NFL. The safety is the last line of defense, mistake eraser, and playmaker. Tampa-2 teams cover up a cornerback's speed shortcomings with a ballhawking safety. Jefferson is like a slow cornerback, and love is like a short and slow safety (but a big hitter with a nose for the ball) who plays more like a linebacker.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2009/5/31/894108/everything-you-think-you-know

Big Al has a standing reach of 9'2", placing him well within the range of what makes for a serviceable NBA center. His standing reach is equal to or higher than the following players: Nene (+1), Aaron Gray (+1.5), Spencer Hawes (even), Joakim Noah (+3.5), Al Horford (+3), and Chris Bosh (+1). It is only -0.5 inches less than Andrew Bogut and Chris Kaman.

Of all those guys horford is a decent defender and kaman puts up god stats. the rest suck defensively, to put it kindly.

Jevale McGee 9'6 1/2
Patrick O'Bryant 9'5
Why aren't they stud defenders?
9'2 is below average, the league is just in a phase where there is a dearth of quality bigs.
Hasheem Thabeet 9'5
Brook Lopez 9'5
DeAndre Jordan 9'5.5
Kevin Love 8'10.
Jefferson 9'2.

His reach (long for a 6'9 1/2 (with shoes) player) helps Al score well inside and block the occasional shot as a weak-side defender. He isn't wide, tall, or quick enough on defense that guys can't find their way around him most of the time.


**I did not know that**

Kevin Love led the Wolves with a 7.4 WARP in his rookie season. Despite some often-heard sentiments about him being a terrible defensive player, the 20 year old rookie actually held his opponents to 86.6% of their per-possession production. Love even led the team in defensive win shares.

I take out-of-context metric stats like those with a heavy grain of salt.
Game Film doesn't lie. I don't think anyone who watched more than a few games last year can honestly say Love or Al is an above average defender.

Love is a decent post defender (and miles better than AL), but good players still can face him up and blow by him pretty easily. I'm guessing most of those defensive stats were accumulated with him playing center after Al went out and guarding the weak link centers. TEAM and HELP defense are where he and Al lack most.

Telfair wasn't as bad a defender as some think. He could keep his guy from getting to the rim better than most (unlike foye). Where he really got torched was off of short jumpers off the pick and roll or pick and pop, because the bigs were too slow to get out to help, and as a small guy he had trouble getting around the pick and looped too far toward the basket. Case in point was the Spurs game where Tony Parker torched us at will for 50+, mostly on pull-up j's off the pick and roll. This is one of the most basic aspects of defense, defending the pick and roll, and we were one of the worst teams I've ever seen at it last year, blame for which is shared equally by the bigs.

After 5 years in the league and coming off a torn acl, I don't see jefferson's defense getting much better, expecially if he's forced to play center. You either have it or you don't. 5 years is more than enough sample size.
Love may get smarter and more technical with his d, but his arms aren't going to grow and his feet aren't going to get that much quicker. As you mature you gain bulk and lose quickness, not the other way around.

Best case Love-Al frontcourt you are talking league average defense. league average. what does that get you? 8th seed? one and done? Where are we setting our sights here? What level of mediocrity will satisfy you? Repeating the 12 years of mediocrity with KG, except now with jefferson?
Look at the finalists this year and their frontcourts:

Orlando
Howard (6'11)
turkoglu (6'10)
Lewis (6'10)
Gortat

Lakers
Bynum (7'1)
Gasol (7')
Odom (6'10)


Size dominates in the post season. Howard would average 50 points in a series vs love and al.
I know one thing, a team with brian cardinal as their 3rd rotational big winning 24 games is quite an overachievement. Even Jordan's Bulls teams had multiple rotational guys who were long and willing to give a hard foul.

I have my doubts about thabeet because watching him he always seems a half step late defending the basket, not enough of a killer instinct. Hearing he has never picked up a weight, I think he does have the potential for a bynum-like physical transformation. In my mind thabeet and deandre jordan are on about the same level right now (minus jordan's horrible ft shooting).
We really screwed the pooch passing on deandre jordan twice, because he'd be the prefect compliment. We were spoiled with all the good big men in last year's draft. Thabeet and Mullens may actually be the only 2 centers drafted this year. And we traded the opportunity to draft an athletic 19 year old with a 9'5.5 reach for two picks this year which are likely NBDL fodder or a longshot euro like mavrokalidas.

Peckovic? Amazing scoring ability and offensive efficiency in euro ball. Defense, rebounds, and shot-blocking? not so much. Redundant enough?
Plus he may have played his way out of our future plans this year. Rumors say he has been offered an extension at the equivalent of 7-8 mil US $ +. If that is true and he can make that much playing in europe I don't honestly ever see him coming over without us severly overpaying him (which is even less likely.

[younggunsmn]

I can't get the idea out of my head that the only reason people would say that Jefferson is a center is because they want to rationalize that picking Kevin Love was a good idea. Offensively, he is like a center, but many people will say that the position a player plays is most important how they matchup defensively. Post defense always has and probably always will be the most important component to championship level success.

A Jefferson/Love front court doesn't exactly scare anyone on the perimeter from driving to the lane. Hell, I don't think Andrew Bogut would be a very good fit next to Jefferson either because he isn't a very good defender. Offensive fit with Jefferson isn't as important as defensive fit. I've still never liked Thabeet though, I think he's a stiff and we need too many pieces on this team to pick someone who's only skill is shotblocking high in the lottery. Since we already have this front court, we might as well work with it, I understand that.

Standing reach is only one tool for defense, and the players he compares Al's length with that are actually decent defenders are all more athletic then him.

Shoring up our perimeter defense will help a lot, but lets be real here, shots close to the rim are converted at the highest percentage on the floor by far. Also, no matter how good your perimeter defense is (see the Rockets) really good players are going to get to the rim regardless and a real threat at the rim is the best chance of deterring these players.

A player like BJ Mullens with our second pick would be excellent because while he is very raw now, he has the potential to be a real difference maker if he puts it together. You can't ask for much more from a mid first round pick.

Agree with everything here. Mullens would be a steal at 18.
Looking at some projections for next year's draft class, it looks like an absolute stinker outside of maybe cole aldrich or jerome jordan for centers. A trade may be the best option to find a 3rd big. I want Tyreke Evans and his 6'11 wingspan at #6. Even without his shot falling, his size, defense, and driving ability will keep him on the court. Of all the top 10 guards he has the most potential to be a defensive difference-maker, which is maybe what we need most.

[JMillott]

Jefferson can play both positions but anyone who thinks his natural or ideal position is C and not PF quite frankly doesn't know what they're talking about.

As others have said i've also got no problem at all with him playing C for as many as half his minutes but they need a true C whose primary concern is defense to play the 20-25 minutes a game that Jefferson is either at PF or resting.

The preference obviously being for a shot blocking, hard foul giving, rebounding, athletic 7 footer that can move well and has a great motor. Now ideally that would be a Chris Anderson for a good chunk of the MLE but could honesty be a Pryzbilla, Chandler, Camby, Haywood, Gortat, Battie, Dalembert, etc just as long as they get one.

The people thinking Mullens at 18 are forgetting its an immediate need not just a some day need. If they were going to take a longterm shot in the dark at this need the time to do that was last year with DeAndre Jordan. Now its time to address it with a current solution not every slot on the roster has to be filled via longterm draft pick.

A young core of Jefferson, Holiday, Love, Foye, Brewer and hopefully Daye would be enough youth to build around and any successful young team has veteran role players.

[TheFranchise21]

So with this logic, Kevin Garnett is a center because standing reach is what determines your position .

[invno1]

Al has to work to hard at center...prolonged play at center is only asking for more knee trouble. Watch his leg work defending lots of stress. (nimble)

[revprodeji]

tf21. The biggest and perhaps most often argument for Jefferson not being a center is his height. Seeing the standing reach stat does a lot to nullify the issue.

btw, txt me ur number, my phone was destroyed.