How good is Josh Beckett?

randomhero423 · Post #1 » by **randomhero423** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 3:37 pm

I recently wrote an article on bleacher report saying he's in the elite class of pitchers along with Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Zack Grienke. I'm sure it's not a common opinion, but do you agree?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1922 ... -but-elite

Post #2 » by **Celtics_Champs** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 6:05 pm

Is that for this year only? Zach Grienke is a great pitcher this year, but I don't think you can put him in the class of Halladay and Santana.

greenbeans · Post #3 » by **greenbeans** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 7:19 pm

He's wicked awesome.

But yes, I think he should be up there, based on his playoff stats alone. This seems to be one of his good years too, so look out come October.

jumanji · Post #4 » by **jumanji** » Thu Jun 4, 2009 8:15 pm

Not sure how many rings those other 3 have, but i'm going to say none. When healthy, and i think Beckett is now, i want him on the mound in game 7 of any series.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Fri Jun 5, 2009 6:33 pm

jumanji wrote:Not sure how many rings those other 3 have, but i'm going to say none. When healthy, and i think Beckett is now, i want him on the mound in game 7 of any series.

Despite his post-season successes (his numbers are superb despite last year's implosion), I'd just as soon have the better pitcher. Blaming a guy like Halladay for failing to produce wins in the 80% of the team's games in which he doesn't appear is silly.

Jersey Generals · Post #6 » by **Jersey Generals** » Fri Jun 5, 2009 8:23 pm

Comparing him to Doc Halladay isn't fair, but I do think that Beckett is up there. Right now I have him at the bottom of my top ten, but I had him at 3rd a year ago.

Post #7 » by **tsherkin** » Sat Jun 6, 2009 6:42 am

If Beckett could stay healthy, that'd be cool. Comparing rings with Halladay is flat stupid though, because Halladay has never played on a team that had the kind of offensive firepower Beckett enjoyed in Boston, nor that 2003 Marlins team either, so he's never had the opportunity to pitch in that kind of situation, nor rack up postseason stats, and certainly not to win a ring.

Beckett's good, despite 3 terrible postseason starts last year, no question. But can he stay healthy? He's got 2 seasons with 30+ starts, with one at 29 and one at 27. He's hit 200+ innings twice, and his BB/9 rate from 2007 and 2008 are out of line with what he's done before and what he's doing this year, so it's a little concerning.

I don't know about sticking with Halladay and Santana, though. Both are CONSIDERABLY more durable, both allow fewer baserunners, and Halladay in particular is much more valuable in terms of his ability to go deep in a game (remember, he's led the league in CGs four times now and has 5 seasons with 220+ innings pitched, though he's had his own injury issues in two seasons).

I don't really know that I'm ready to look at Beckett in that group, who doesn't really have the same kind of impact on the game as Santana and Halladay. Consider this: Halladay and Santana have recorded 7 and 6 seasons respectively where their ERA+ is 120 or better (in fact, most of those seasons are 130 or better) and that's just since they became 30+ game starters.

Mindful of the fact that Beckett's never in the rotation enough to pitch that many games, he's only beaten 118 three times in his career... once, in his first year in the majors (over 4 games), then in 2003 over 23 games and finally in 2007 over 30 games.

I think there's something to be said here about durability, level of impact and consistency. Beckett's a very good pitcher whether he's healthy or not, but his peak level of pitching is about even with what those two are managing year in and year out, and their peaks are higher than anything Beckett has done to date. Santana, for example, has 4 seasons with an ERA under 4 (and three seasons with FIPs under 3, too, and 7 seasons with an ERA+ better than Beckett's career-best, that 4-game season notwithstanding).

I think Santana and Halladay are in another echelon and Beckett, when healthy, is just below.

Post #8 » by **sunshinekids99** » Sat Jun 6, 2009 11:36 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
jumanji wrote:Not sure how many rings those other 3 have, but i'm going to say none. When healthy, and i think Beckett is now, i want him on the mound in game 7 of any series.

Despite his post-season successes (his numbers are superb despite last year's implosion), I'd just as soon have the better pitcher. Blaming a guy like Halladay for failing to produce wins in the 80% of the team's games in which he doesn't appear is silly.

He was obviously hurt last year. So really no reason to bring up that garbage.

Post #9 » by **Schad** » Sat Jun 6, 2009 10:28 pm

sunshinekids99 wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
jumanji wrote:Not sure how many rings those other 3 have, but i'm going to say none. When healthy, and i think Beckett is now, i want him on the mound in game 7 of any series.

Despite his post-season successes (his numbers are superb despite last year's implosion), I'd just as soon have the better pitcher. Blaming a guy like Halladay for failing to produce wins in the 80% of the team's games in which he doesn't appear is silly.

He was obviously hurt last year. So really no reason to bring up that garbage.

Yeah...the point was that he still carries a lifetime post-season ERA in the low-2.00s despite that. It was a compliment.

livestrong4ever · Post #10 » by **livestrong4ever** » Sun Jun 7, 2009 4:59 am

Its hard to say. I would say he was an elite pitcher 2-3 years ago but hasn't put up those kind of numbers since. So as of right now, i wouldn't call him elite. Elite to me is in the top ten.

Post #11 » by **craig01** » Sun Jun 7, 2009 6:16 pm

If he would stay healthy he might be there.

But.....

Post #12 » by **sunshinekids99** » Sun Jun 7, 2009 10:43 pm

People are making it sound like he is always hurt.

Post #13 » by **Bleeding Green** » Tue Jun 9, 2009 2:42 am

He's rarely hurt. He's also not an ace like these other guys. He'd be a total bust for Boston if not for the 2007 post season. He has a 115 ERA+ since coming to Boston. Hardly what I would call an ace.

Post #14 » by **sunshinekids99** » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:49 am

It seems that every other year Beckett will be the ace of the team I guess. He was pretty dominate in 07. This year after a slow start he seems to be back on track.

Jersey Generals · Post #15 » by **Jersey Generals** » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:10 am

Well, he pitched real good tonight.

Post #16 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:05 pm

It really does seem like the "every other year" thing applies, at least to his ERA+. 138 in 2003, then 108, 118, 95, 145, 115 and 126 so far this year. Of course, that's all above-average to amazing (except that 95). 2007 is the first year he got noticed as an elite pitcher in terms of Cy Young voting, though; it's the only year he appears in the voting totals (he was 2nd, and an All-Star to boot who grabbed a few MVP votes).

I think this year more than anything will help establish his elite status. His first game was very good, then he threw 4 poor games, 2 average games, and his last 5 have been excellent (even that 8-inning ND he got for 1 unearned run allowed). In that time, he's posted a WHIP under 0.77, a BAA of .124 and an ERA of 0.76 and grabbed 4 wins (and really should have won the 5th but for anemic run production).

He's not going to maintain that over the whole season, of course, but Beckett can certainly be an elite pitcher. It's interesting to note, though, that he gets hit more often (including more frequent homers) since coming to the AL, despite his control improving and his BB/9 dropping. I guess the hitters are better and some of the parks are less pitcher-friendly, but he's definitely one of the best pitchers in the game.

Dirty Water · Post #17 » by **Dirty Water** » Thu Jun 11, 2009 7:04 pm

Beckett deserved Cy young over Sabathia in 07, imo

Mustard_Tiger · Post #18 » by **Mustard_Tiger** » Fri Jun 12, 2009 12:02 pm

Josh Beckett as good as Roy Halladay? What!?

Sometimes I really don't think people understand how good Doc is.

Post #19 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:00 am

Mustard_Tiger wrote:Josh Beckett as good as Roy Halladay? What!?

Sometimes I really don't think people understand how good Doc is.

There's something to be said for a 6'6 dude who dominates with a sinker and a cutter, and then everyone remembers that he's got that big hook and a decent changeup, too. He's kind of a command pitcher with good velocity and can dial it up a bit more when he needs to. Dirty, dirty pitcher is Roy Halladay. IMO the best pitcher since prime Maddux (with due respect to Johan Santana).

Post #20 » by **HCYanks** » Tue Jun 16, 2009 11:56 am

tsherkin wrote:
Mustard_Tiger wrote:Josh Beckett as good as Roy Halladay? What!?

Sometimes I really don't think people understand how good Doc is.

There's something to be said for a 6'6 dude who dominates with a sinker and a cutter, and then everyone remembers that he's got that big hook and a decent changeup, too. He's kind of a command pitcher with good velocity and can dial it up a bit more when he needs to. Dirty, dirty pitcher is Roy Halladay. IMO the best pitcher since prime Maddux (with due respect to Johan Santana).

No love for prime Pedro? I think people forget how ridiculous those 99 and 2000 seasons were sometimes, as unbelievable as that sounds with the Red Sox.

I think you can make a decent case for Halladay as the best pitcher in baseball right now, with the caveat that Greinke runs away with the title if he sustains anything near this level of production for a while (good chance he won't though--he has to start giving up homeruns eventually).