'09 Draft: Jays Take Chad Jenkins 20th Overall

[-MetA4-]

We're at that time again. I've been tracking this stuff for about 2 weeks now with a few other people on another board.

The big news is that the Blue Jays have been spotted scouting at least three HS pitchers who are projected to be first round picks in our range.

[Schad]

I'm now using this post for a full list of Jays draftees:

20th - Chad Jenkins, 21, RHSP, Kennesaw St.
37th - James Paxton, 20, LHP, Kentucky.
68th - Jake Eliopolous, 18, LHSP, Sacred Heart HS (Ontario).
99th - Jake Barrett, 17, RHSP, Desert Ridge HS (Arizona).
104th - Jacob Marisnick, 18, OF, Riverside Poly HS (California).
130th - Ryan Goins, 21, SS, Dallas Baptist University.
160th - Ryan Schimpf, 21, 2B, Louisiana State.
190th - Kristopher Hobson, 18, OF, Stockdale HS (California).
220th - Egan Smith, 20, LHP, College of Southern Nevada.
250th - Brian Slover, 21, RHP, Cal State Northridge.
280th - Aaron Loup, 21, LHP, Tulane.
310th - Yan Gomes, 21, C, Barry University.
340th - Sean Ochinko, 21, C, Louisiana State.
370th - Bryson Namba, 18, 3B, Pearl City HS (Hawaii).
400th - Matthew Morgal, 22, RHP, Southern Nazarene University.
430th - Lance Durham, 21, 1B, Cincinnati.
460th - Andrew Hutchison, 18, RHP, Lakeland Senior HS (Florida).
490th - David Sever, 22, RHP, Saint Louis.
520th - Steven Turnbull, 22, RHP, Iowa.
550th - Daniel Webb, 19, RHP, Northwest Florida State College.
580th - Dennis Tepera, 21, RHP, Sam Houston State.
610th - Kevin Nolan, 21, SS, Winthrop.
640th - Kurt Giller, 18, RHP, Manhattan HS (Kansas).
670th - Matt Fields, 22, RHP, Gonzaga.
700th - Brad Glenn, 22, OF, Arizona.
730th - Matt Nuzzo, 22, SS, Brown.
760th - Samuel Strickland, 22, LHP, Texas A&M Kingsville.
790th - Lance Loftin, 23, RHP, Texas State.
820th - Brian Justice, 23, RHP, Saint Mary's.
850th - Zach Outman, 21, RHP, Saint Louis.
880th - Zach Anderson, 22, RHP, Buffalo.
910th - Tim McDonald, 18, OF, Edison HS (California).

[-MetA4-]

Matt Purke doesn't look like he will be available by the time we select at #20.

The three that have been reported in Toronto news-articles as having been scouted by us (there are obviously others) are:

RHP Shelby Miller: The first to have Blue Jays scouts spotted watching him. Since then he's pretty much played himself out of our range. He's a projectable power pitcher who has been clocked as high as 98mph (sits around mid 90's) with a potential plus CB in the future. BA's first mock draft from a few days ago has him going #14 to the Rangers)

LHP Chad James: His older brother was drafted by us in the 5th round of the 2002 or 2003 MLB draft if I remember correctly. He's a big, projectable, power pitcher with above average velocity for a LHP (clocked as high as 94mph) that throws a promising looking CB like Shelby Miller. Right now he's definitely a possibility to be available at our pick, BA's mock has him going #18 to Seattle. Assistant GM Tony LaCava was actually present with a scout when they were spotted watching Chad James pitch recently.

RHP Garrett Gould: The most recent, he was mentioned in an article just yesterday as being scouted by the Jays. He is a late riser that Callis at BA said this past Wednesday in his Draft Chat was the fastest rising HS player. Sine he's ballooning late there isn't that much news on his recent stuff, but he's tall and projectable (6'4 190) and was noted by PG as having a low 90's fastball, strong potential CB, and a straight changeup which he mixes in. That report is pretty old so chances are his velocity has likely spiked a bit which is probably why he is ballooning late. BA had him going to the Rockies with the last pick in the first round in their mock.

[-MetA4-]

BTW BA's first mock had us selecting Kentucky LHP James Paxton at #20. This has been one of those picks that most experts have easily penciled us in at, because we're likely to select a pitcher and Paxton is a Canadian. We'll see how it plays out because Paxton's stock has been going up and down...his stuff is terrific...big (6'4 215lb) LHP who throws as hard as 96mph and has a hard slider. On one side his strikeout numbers are great, but on the other side for whatever reason he has been getting hit pretty hard which is confusing because his stuff is so good. His last start a few days ago was pretty bad as he got hit pretty hard. He doesn't walk a ton of guys but to me and a few others its looking like his command of pitches is pretty bad and he must be throwing stuff over the plate which is why he's getting hit so hard even on the collegiate level despite throwing high 90's. Because of his stuff some people have had him higher than our pick, but I think his marginal production (save for his strikeout numbers) and the fact that he recently chose Boras as his agent will probably push him anywhere from #10 to around where we select.

[Schad]

Hmm, wasn't aware that Purke had played himself out of our range, but he definitely seems to have moved pretty high on most mocks. I'd read that he would probably go in the teens, though admittedly that was a couple months ago.

[Ong_dynasty]

Why are we not looking at Bats?!?!I know its early but doesn't seem a bat could be more useful?!?!
Do we have any bats coming up in the next few years that could be decent?!!?

[Schad]

BTW BA's first mock had us selecting Kentucky LHP James Paxton at #20. This has been one of those picks that most experts have easily penciled us in at, because we're likely to select a pitcher and Paxton is a Canadian. We'll see how it plays out because Paxton's stock has been going up and down...his stuff is terrific...big (6'4 215lb) LHP who throws as hard as 96mph and has a hard slider. On one side his strikeout numbers are great, but on the other side for whatever reason he has been getting hit pretty hard which is confusing because his stuff is so good. His last start a few days ago was pretty bad as he got hit pretty hard. He doesn't walk a ton of guys but to me and a few others its looking like his command of pitches is pretty bad and he must be throwing stuff over the plate which is why he's getting hit so hard even on the collegiate level despite throwing high 90's. Because of his stuff some people have had him higher than our pick, but I think his marginal production (save for his strikeout numbers) and the fact that he recently chose Boras as his agent will probably push him anywhere from #10 to around where we select.

It'll likely come down to whether teams see him as a reliever or a starter going forward...if his lack of a good third pitch scares some teams away (plus the Boras Factor), Paxton might reach us.

Why are we not looking at Bats?!?!I know its early but doesn't seem a bat could be more useful?!?!
Do we have any bats coming up in the next few years that could be decent?!!?

I'm sure we are looking at bats. You can never have too many power-armed young 'uns, though.

[-MetA4-]

Hmm, wasn't aware that Purke had played himself out of our range, but he definitely seems to have moved pretty high on most mocks. I'd read that he would probably go in the teens, though admittedly that was a couple months ago.

Purke has been one of the top 3-4 HS pitchers in this draft for a while now. There looks to be a strong number of HS pitchers that will be first round picks this year (as opposed to last year with only Ethan Martin). Matzek/Purke/Miller/Wheeler aren't very likely at all IMO to be available at our pick. Jacob Turner has arguably become the top HS RHP in the draft but there is a possibility of him slipping due to the fact that he is a Boras client who also has a commitment with UNC which is one of the strongest (if not the strongest) collegiate commitments, and if he did fall I'm not sure we'd be the one to grab him. Wheeler appears to be tailor-made for Atlanta as they love home-state HS kids. I guess there could be a remote possibility of one of those falling to us but its unlikely...all 5 of the above were gone before our pick in BA's mock.

I could realistically see as many as 8-9 HS pitchers selected in the first round this year.

[-MetA4-]

Why are we not looking at Bats?!?!I know its early but doesn't seem a bat could be more useful?!?!
Do we have any bats coming up in the next few years that could be decent?!!?

This is a very piss-poor year in terms of collegiate hitters, so in that sense there aren't going to be any college bats available at #20 who will be BPA at that slot. There are a few interesting HS hitters who we have been linked to a bit, but again, none of these are advanced mashers. We haven't drafted a 1st round pitcher in a while and that is more or less the strength of the first round this year.

Of the HS hitters, one of the first players we were seen scouting was CF Everett Williams, and this was before he became a top 2 rounds type talent. He's a possible first rounder and BA has him going #21 (right after us) in their first mock. Another CF who came out of nowhere and is probably a first rounder right now is Mike Trout, who kind of has similar tools to Williams. The thing is that both of these guys are much alike to the recent HS CF's we've drafted (Eiland, Wilson) in the sense that they are top of the order, speed, defense type guys and dont really look like big middle of the order hitters. Theres a few HS catchers available with upside, but that position is quite possibly even more risky than HS pitchers. Bobby Borchering is a switch hitting HS corner infielder (probably 1B) who should be drafted in our range and has pretty good projection with the bat, but he's not a Snider type hitting talent.

[-MetA4-]

It'll likely come down to whether teams see him as a reliever or a starter going forward...if his lack of a good third pitch scares some teams away (plus the Boras Factor), Paxton might reach us.

I dont think anyone has been scared off on him potentially being a reliever, its just that its a pretty strong class of pitchers (with the return of Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers who you may remember from last year) and while people have been urging to push Paxton up because of his stuff he has had some disappointing performances which is keeping him from surpassing some other power arms of both the college and HS type. Early on I was pretty excited about him and I'd still be excited about his stuff if he was our pick, but I'm kind of worried about how he's getting hit around so often...and his high ERA isn't even a result of him walking a ton of guys either (as would be the case of someone like David Purcey). He gave up 11 hits in his last start against Florida in something like 5.1 innings, he's also given up quite a few HRs which is troubling. In the end however he's a big LHP with a potentially plus-plus FB and a power slider...kind of like Cecil but with more velocity, but at the same time he hasn't had as much success as Cecil collegiately (even though Cecil was a closer).

[evilRyu]

awesome thread, I'm REALLY looking forward to the draft even though I don't really know any of the prospects...

But I'm glad JP has started looking at drafting HS'ers now

[evilRyu]

does anyone have a good website that has a mock draft for this coming draft? I found a few, but they're not very detailed at all... For example, I found sites that had their "mock", but I can't click on the prospects name to see what their strengths/weaknesses are, and a comparison of a current player.

Is there any site that resembles DraftExpress or NBADraft.net, where they list the mock, and have links to each player?

[-MetA4-]

does anyone have a good website that has a mock draft for this coming draft? I found a few, but they're not very detailed at all... For example, I found sites that had their "mock", but I can't click on the prospects name to see what their strengths/weaknesses are, and a comparison of a current player.

Is there any site that resembles DraftExpress or NBADraft.net, where they list the mock, and have links to each player?

All of the up to date, accurate mocks are going to come from pay-sites like Baseball America, Perfect Game, ESPN, etc. If you look hard enough, you can usually find these posted online somewhere. I'd watch out for trusting free fansites too much because they usually aren't up to date with the latest player movements, which I think you'll see an example of sometime this week as I think BA should be coming out with their second mock.

minorleagueball.com is a good site (by John Sickels) which allows for fan-blogs and such, so at this point you'll see a lot of draft talk (we're just starting up a big annual fan-based mock draft in which I'll be assisting with the Jays for the second year). Heres the link to our little war-room where we've already begun breaking down some names we like:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/1 ... -blue-jays

For scouting reports on prospects the best source right now is MLB's Draft Reports which has scouting reports on a lot of top prospects. Just remember that their stuff comes after only a limited amount of time (usually one or two games) so the its not the end-all, be-all in terms of scouting reports. They update once a week and will usually add a few more profiles each week.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp

brewerfan.net also has a pretty good free draft big-board and player profiles. Their stuff however hasn't been updated in a while I believe (usually gets a big update prior to the draft) so their current ranking of prospects should more or less be disregarded, but they've got writeups on a decent amount of prospects, although again, some of these may be a bit outdated.

[-MetA4-]

BA came out with their Top 100 list which you can see here (just rankings and stats for non-subscribers):
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 68178.html

As of right now @ #20 I like:
RHP Chad Jenkins, NCAA
RHP Garrett Gould, HS
OF Everett Williams, HS
LHP Chad James, HS

Canadian LHP James Paxton has dropped all the way down to #37 on the Top 100.

[-MetA4-]

Since I like talking to myself.....BA has us taking HS LHP Chad James @ #20 in their 2nd Mock Draft.

I also have BA's Top 200 WITH Scouting Reports. Not sure if I'm allowed to post the link however...

[Ong_dynasty]

I dont really know alot and keep track that much about the MLB draft..
But I would like to thank Meta4 for any info..

If you could provide any info on the draft (and anybody else for that matter) you will have atleast one appreciative reader

[-MetA4-]

Well its gearing up to the final day, theres still a lot of unanswered questions including a late injury to RHP Kyle Gibson (top 10-15 pick) that could push him out of the first round completely. The last two BA mock drafts have had us selecting HS LHP Chad James at #20, which would obviously be a pretty eventful selection. As I think I've mentioned I've got all of the BA Top 200 scouting reports so I'll make sure to post the reports for the players we do end up drafting on Tuesday who made that list.

We had our 3-round organizational mock draft on minorleagueball.com yesterday. The leg-work was basically done by me and two other guys who I've followed the draft with for a few years now, we ironed out our draft boards and strategies and ended up with this group of draftees. I actually missed our first pick and was only able to be present for our supplemental round pick but I liked the way our draft turned out.

#20: RHP Kyle Gibson, Missouri
He's got a stress fracture in his forearm, which for an early report is pretty good news as its not a very serious injury, but then again it could be a lot worse than its being reported at this point. He fell to our pick and our scouting director decided to pull the trigger...we'll see how far he actually falls on Tuesday.

BA Writeup (Ranking: #4):
For the third time in four years, Missouri will have a pitcher taken early in the first round. Gibson doesn't have the arm strength of Max Scherzer (2006, Diamondbacks) or Aaron Crow (2008, Nationals), but he may wind up being the best pitcher of the three. He relies on two-seam fastballs more than four-seamers, usually pitching at 88-91 mph with good sink and tailing action, though he can reach back for 94 mph when needed. He has two of the better secondary pitches in the draft, a crisp 82-85 mph slider and a deceptive changeup with fade that can generate swings and misses. All of his offerings play up because he has excellent command and pitchability. He repeats his smooth delivery easily, and his 6-foot-6, 208-pound frame allows him to throw on a steep downhill plane. If there's a knock on Gibson, it's that he hasn't added much velocity during his three years with the Tigers, but that hasn't stopped him from succeeding as soon as he stepped on campus. He led Team USA's college team with five wins last summer, including a victory in the gold-medal game at the the FISU World Championships. He is a lock to go in the first 10 picks.


#37: LHP Tyler Skaggs, California HS:
I kind of pushed for this pick after Skaggs fell out of the first round and I got backed up by the guy who was the scouting director in last year's mock draft.

BA Writeup (Ranking: #26):
Skaggs has the most projectable frame of any California prospect in this draft class. Thin and lanky at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, Skaggs has long arms, long legs, big hands and the angular and athletic build that could handle more muscle without becoming bulky. Skaggs' mother Debbie is the girls volleyball coach at Santa Monica High, and Tyler has also played football and basketball, though his emerging baseball talent caused him to drop the other sports. He cemented his reputation nationally with an outstanding performance last October in the World Wood Bat Championship, then pitched well this spring. He struck out 15 in a showdown with Bryan Berglund, and then tossed a 12-strikeout gem at the Anaheim Lions Tournament in front of 60 scouts. Skaggs' fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range, peaking at 92, and his four-seamer is most effective when it darts to his arm side. He adds a classic, over-the-top rainbow curveball, and has experimented with a slider. He will need to develop his changeup, but that pitch also shows promise. Utilizing an old-fashioned windup in which he brings his hands over his head and to the back of neck, Skaggs does a nice job of bending his back leg to drive off the rubber. He can fall into bad habits, such as rushing his delivery and overthrowing, and he'll have to be patient enough to let his velocity rise as his frame fills out. He should eventually pitch in the mid-90s, but that might not be for a few years. With his projectable build, easy arm action and promising stuff, Skaggs is one of the more enticing pitchers recently seen in Southern California. He's committed to Cal State Fullerton but is a likely first-round pick.

#68: 1B Jeff Malm, Nevada HS:
This was a favourite of GoJays7 (the scouting director). I personally would have gone with prep OF LaVon Washington at this spot but I like Malm too. He's one of those HS kids that is bat-first and is advanced as a hitter for his age group.

BA Writeup (Ranking: #59):
The first thing out of everyone's mouth when talking about Malm is some variation of: "That guy can hit." Few high school players in the draft have a better track record of performance than Malm, who does it from the left side. Everywhere he goes, he hits, whether it's as the youngest player on the USA Baseball junior national team—where he saw more time at first base than Eric Hosmer—or as the only underclassman at the 2007 Cape Cod High School Classic. Playing for one of the nation's top high school teams, Malm was leading the state of Nevada with 15 home runs heading into the playoffs. The question is whether he will be able to hit for the same power with a wood bat. At a soft-bodied 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, he's limited to first base and will need to produce power. He has a good arm—sitting at 87-89 mph as a pitcher—but can't play the outfield. As a lifelong Southern California fan with a long personal relationship with head coach Chad Kreuter, Malm's commitment to the Trojans is strong.


#99: LHP Justin Marks, Louisville:
This pick was made to maintain some realism towards how the Jays actually draft as a team. Marks is a guy with decent stuff and good command and pitchability and a strong track record. He fits the mold of the type of pitchers this team drafts around this spot in real life.

BA Writeup (Ranking: #83):
Marks started winning immediately at Louisville, quickly joining the rotation as a freshman in 2007 and earning victories in the Big East tournament and NCAA regional clinchers during the Cardinals' run to their first-ever College World Series. In three seasons, he has become the program's career leader in wins (26), ERA (2.95) and strikeouts (270 in 274 innings). Marks doesn't have an overpowering pitch but he's a lefty with command of four solid offerings: a lively 90-92 mph fastball, a slider, a downer curveball and a changeup. Outside of a rough time in the Cape Cod League last summer, he has been very consistent. Marks has a good 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame, though there's some violence in his delivery from a high three-quarters slot. He could beat out more ballyhooed Chris Dominguez to become the first Louisville player drafted this year, with both figuring to go near the third round.

#104: OF Max Walla, New Mexico HS:
Walla was another guy that GoJays7 liked, another HS kid who isn't super toolsy but can really hit. He's drawn some comparisons to another HS kid who both me and GoJays liked last year named Jaff Decker who was drafted by the Padres and has hit really well early.

BA Writeup (Ranking: #146):
Walla doesn't have the size, speed or arm that make him stand out on a baseball field. Then he steps into the batter's box and people stop what they're doing to watch. Walla can flat-out hit. Drawing comparisons to Jaff Decker, a supplemental first-round pick last year, Walla is similar in that he's 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. Walla doesn't have the arm strength that Decker displays, but he has a better body. He's swam competitively since he was six years old and was part of his school's relay team that broke two state records this year. He has a compact swing and consistently hits balls on the sweet spot. Swinging from the left side, Walla generates considerable power for his size. Between his junior year in Albuquerque and the summer showcase circuit, Walla hit 51 home runs. His coach said that at a workout for some scouts this spring, they wanted to see him take 25 swings with a metal bat and then 25 with wood. He hit 18 home runs with the metal, switched to wood and hit 18 more over the fence. He was also a standout pitcher for his team this year, leading them to a state championship, but his future is as a hitter. A favorite of area scouts for his play and his makeup, Walla has been tough to crosscheck as a high school player in Albuquerque. If he grew up in the Phoenix area, like Decker, he would likely go a lot higher in the draft, but it's assumed he'll fall to around the fifth round, which could increase his chances of ending up at Oklahoma State.

[Schad]

Word is that Matt Purke might fall clean out of the first round, as he's looking for a deal close to Rick Porcello's (which was more than $7.7m over 4 years, with a signing bonus of nearly $4m), with a threat that he will go to college if the money isn't forthcoming. He's not the only one, either...there are close to ten first-round talents who Jim Callas (with Baseball America) states are apparently asking for the moon, Shelby Miller and Tyler Matzek (two other highly-touted high school pitchers) and Donovan Tate (HS outfielder) among them. Also, Chad James -- a possible Jays target -- is asking $1.75m, which would be slightly high for our slot, but not extreme. More here: http://baseballanalysts.com/

This could get silly, and if the Jays aren't willing to fork out huge amounts of cash for a guy that might return to school, that could thin the available talent pool somewhat.

[tsherkin]

I pine for the days where we had a budget to match the Yanks and BoSox, lol.

[Schad]

I pine for the days where we had a budget to match the Yanks and BoSox, lol.

Doesn't always work even for them, though. They took Gerrit Cole last year after he tumbled, and still weren't willing to fork out enough money to get his name on paper.