What could Joe Johnson fetch in trade?

[evildallas]

With the prospect of losing Joe next offseason looming as well as him potentially breaking down due to playing so many minutes over multiple seasons, I was stricken with the thought of what could he realistically bring back in trade.

You can answer in respect to any team, but 2 specific ones had my attention:
Oklahoma City and Washington.

Oklahoma City: Looking for that #3 pick as well as Nenad Krstic and salary filler (probably Earl Watson). Not sure it's enough, but it would give us the #3 pick to add a piece to help down the road and Krstic for the front line now. Earl Watson is an expiring PG as filler.

Reasoning. OKC gets to add a veteran at a position of need to pair with Westbrook in the backcourt. With the #3 pick we should have some options as only Griffin and one more player would be off the board. That could mean either Rubio, Thabeet, or Harden added to the future mix and hopefully turning into an impact pro like the kind Billy Knight routinely skipped. Meanwhile we get a rental PG to fill in and another big for our rotation at C.

Washington: Looking for the #5 pick as well as either Andray Blatche or JaVale McGee along with filler. Since part of the filler (either Deshawn Stevenson or Darius Songaila) likely has a 2 year deal (Mike James would be likely filler with his expiring deal, but I'm really not a fan) then I might want an additional asset kicked in like Nick Young or Javaris Crittendon or their 2nd.

Reasoning. My original idea was to try to pry away Caron Butler, but that doesn't really fit with Washington's short-term goals. The 5th pick isn't really desirable in this draft, but Washington has young bigs which is my main goal. Either McGee (preferred) or Blatche is an upgrade for our front court depth. At #5, unless a potential stud drops in our lap I'm eyeballing the likes of Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan, or Jonny Flynn. For the rest of the deal, I prefer to get Young because I think we can start him right away, but even if settling for the 2nd rounder it could likely produce a rotation contributor like a Marcus Thornton or Wayne Ellington or Patty Mills. The filler might be able to play or could be useful as expiring deals the following year.

Obviously each of these deals in a short-term step back, but they are suggested with the likelihood of losing Joe with only cap room to show and with a sad realization that we are still a couple years from really competing for a title even with Joe and we've not got the pieces to get there as we currently stand. Either trade puts a lot of faith in Josh, Marvin, and Al to step up. We'll definitely need a PG who can facilitate in the mix as well and possibly a real offensive scheme for a change.

I'm sure it's a touchy subject, but is an expiring Joe Johnson worth more or less in the trade market than what I've proposed?

[Harry10]

ATL is a big market, i don't think Joe is leaving.......

another team MIGHT over pay and give Joe a Lebron size deal....

and if that happen, let Joe walk....

Hawks will have enough cap space to make an offer to Wade, Bosh, Amare, etc...... hell Hawks should go ahead and make a NY size offer to Lebron and just sees what happens.

[niffoc4]

I'd say this is the wrong draft to be doing a trade like that, and if Sund is going to trade him it will probably be later in the year for players and/or near the trade deadline for picks and players.
I would want back at least one solid starter, and probably a solid starter + 1st rounder or two, and neither one of these deals does that.

[NWO4Life]

First round pick and Boris Diaw???

[killbuckner]

Harry- are you willing to max out Joe Johnson? Because thats what it will take to keep him. If you are either not willing to give him a max contract or he will not accept a max contract extension this summer then he should unquestionably be traded this offseason.

[rak1974]

Harry- are you willing to max out Joe Johnson? Because thats what it will take to keep him. If you are either not willing to give him a max contract or he will not accept a max contract extension this summer then he should unquestionably be traded this offseason.

I say yes we should keep Joe Jonhson. He is not going get Kobe=Lebron type of money, but he will get a Max deal. I feel he is a max money player he just needs another player that can score and create with him to help with the double teams.... if he had that there is no way you (killbuckner) would want to trade JJ.

[evildallas]

Actually, a max deal is Lebron money. The NBA salary scale is not governed by talent, it is governed by years in series and Bird rights. He's unrestricted, so there is no right to match. The only advantage Atlanta has is that it can go one year longer and offer bigger raises. That advantage only matters if you intend to pay him that much. If you don't plan on offering the max, then you can be outbid and lose him for nothing. There are enough teams shopping for players next summer with serious cap room that he will get a max contract offer from someone whether that is to be second banana to a guy like Lebron or Dwade or possibly a back court mate for someone like Derrick Rose or Devin Harris or a consolation prize for a team that went big game hunting and failed to bag a Lebron or Dwade. He can squeeze out a few extra dollars with a sign and trade, but that's a long shot and wouldn't need much (Seattle got a trade exception for Rashard Lewis when he went to Orlando and that was it, but it was better than nothing). We've been through this before though.

It is possible that the answer is so low that the better option is to have him play out his contract and get cap relief. I would like to point out that doing that might get another playoff visit, but it also could delay finding out if we have a real future core by another year. My question for this thread is what is able to bring in a trade this summer. People seem to have no problem throwing together scenarios to trade Marvin, Josh, Al, or just spare parts. All I am asking is what does Joe get us? Am I pricing him too low, too high, or just about right?

[evildallas]

I'd say this is the wrong draft to be doing a trade like that, and if Sund is going to trade him it will probably be later in the year for players and/or near the trade deadline for picks and players.
I would want back at least one solid starter, and probably a solid starter + 1st rounder or two, and neither one of these deals does that.

I agree that it isn't a great draft for this, but can't really pick the timing of it as his contract is up next summer. The team that trades for him is only getting a 1 year rental and the ability to outbid any else on his next contract. That mitigates the value, but I appreciate your answer that I'm not getting enough in either trade. For the record I would love to trade Joe for Caron Butler and Washington's first (and filler if necessary), but the more I thought about it the less likely Washington seemed to make such a deal.

[evildallas]

First round pick and Boris Diaw???

They'd have to send more salary back, but it's a thought. The problems I have with it aren't about value, but fit. Diaw plays best as a small PF, which we have plenty of. Also his last stint with Woodson didn't go so well. Maybe it would go better now that Woodson has seen other coaches use Diaw well.

So you are saying that Joe is worth a mid-first rounder and an overpaid, average to slightly-above average starter? In theory then rather than Boris Diaw and a first, a similar deal would be for one of the overpaid bigs like Tyson Chandler, Sam Dalembert, or Chris Kaman and a pick in each case. Of course, Kamen would not come with this year's pick for obvious reasons. Another way to consider it might be someone like Kirk Hinrich, Jason Terry, or Jose Calderon and a pick.

1 starter and a 1st rounder. That may be a little more than I was asking for although the pick is considerably lower and the contracts might be worse. If not too low, then it might be better than Washington's #5 in a price/perfomance manner. Thanks for the answer.

[D21]

...So you are saying that Joe is worth a mid-first rounder and an overpaid, average to slightly-above average starter? In theory then rather than Boris Diaw and a first, a similar deal would be for one of the overpaid bigs like Tyson Chandler, Sam Dalembert, or Chris Kaman and a pick in each case...

Fact is Diaw didn't look like an overpaid player in CHA, and more when you look at the impact they made with Bell.
But with Woodson not able to use him the right way, he would sure look overpaid in ATL.

A thing that made me smiles some weeks ago, reading the thread on what we could get for Smith, is that we would need a guy who can send the ball from inside, play around the rim (and not stand behind the line like Smith used to do),... and I immediately thought of Diaw, thinking there would not have seen all these stupid turnovers, all these 3pts shots,... sure, the defense would not have been the same, but the basket-ball IQ and ball movement would not have been so frustrating.

Not saying the team would be better with Diaw instead of Smith, but it could depend on what would come with him in a trade.

[theatlfan]

I've wondered what JJ could bring in a trade as well. I come to the conclusion though that JJ's contract situation has very little impact on his trade value. Yes, there is less value in that JJ's contract expires in the '10 off-season than in other off-seasons, but I still think that the contract value is more than what it'd be if it lasted for a few more years. I mean, how many teams next off-season would a) be far enough under the cap to offer him a good extension and b) be good enough to attract a top tier FA? Very few big name FAs have left their original team since the CBA has included max contracts and the cap, and with every one of them, there was a reason that the team the player was leaving didn't want to offer him as much (SEA didn't think Lewis should have a contract larger than Ray Allen's and they were against the tax threshold). Considering that JJ is approaching 30 only gives the acquiring team more leverage. JJ's '10 options would be to resign with the team that has his rights, work out a SNT to a team good enough to actually make a run before he's in his mid-30's and considered over the hill, or sign outright with a lesser team and basically give up any real hope of being a star on a championship team. Considering these options, I can't see an opposing GM thinking that the risk of losing him for nothing as being that great.

The other side of this is that whenever you bring someone new into a situation there is some risk. That risk is mitigated by the fact that the deal expires sooner. Yeah, it'd suck if you wanted to keep the player, and he walks, but to a risk adverse GM, the bigger issue would be if you didn't want the player, but he was still under contract for big $$$. Examples: What if AI had 2 more years on his deal? What if Billups wasn't a fit in DEN? These would be potential catastrophic to those team's cap situation for the immediate future and what would concern me more as a GM than wondering if the player who just moved across the country and just figured out my city would want to do that all over again just because another team offered marginally more money in FA.

Back to the trades though, I've basically thought that the teams that would want to acquire JJ would fall into 2 camps: 1) those thinking he'd be a final piece to a championship run and 2) those who think he could be the final piece to achieving the next level. Obviously, those who fall into the former category would be willing to pay more for a one year rental, while those in the latter would be willing to show more "love" in an effort to keep JJ and see him as a long term investment. In category 1, teams like DEN, WAS, HOU, ORL, and BOS jump to mind; category 2 would have teams like CHA (I think LB would *love* JJ), PHI, POR, and possibly NJN. NYK (they're always looking) and GSW (can Nellie resist someone with JJ's shooting range and versatility?) may be interested as well. That's enough teams to get a decent deal even if not all of them are really fits with us.

Some trade thoughts I've seen or thought about:
DEN: JJ + JR Smith + future 1st(s) (# of 1sts Depends on filler. They have a protected 1st from CHA)
- Filler to this deal would either be a TPE (Camby) or Stephen Hunter + Renaldo Balkman.
DEN acquiring JJ would have to put them as odds-on favorites for the NBA Finals next year. But would they dare the luxury tax to get there? They traded Camby last year to stay under the tax, but they weren't as close to a championship then... For us, we get a young SG prospect just hitting his stride and some other parts to help remake the team. Out of the filler here, I'd think that we'd prefer the TPE, but DEN would prefer the players (tax implications). That's why I'm unsure of the number of picks to include.

BOS: Rondo + Allen for JJ + ???
This one stems from the rumors of Rondo + Allen for Amare. Rondo is about to hit FA and I don't think that BOS wants to give him the contract that he's looking for. As far as we go, I think Rondo is our ideal fit @ PG. He's the dribble penetration, pass 1st PG we've craved as fans and the ace defender with positional versatility that Woodson has demanded of his core players. He also helps on the boards which is another hole on our team. JJ could replace Allen in their big 3 and should even be an upgrade. If it works out, then they should be able to reach within their war chest and extend their championship window by at least a few years. The obvious ? would be that BOS would want a PG back and I don't think either Speedy or Law would fill the bill. Bibby would do, but would he agree to the SNT? A 3rd team could be involved that wouldn't mind dumping their current PG. Maybe Speedy + Law for Ridnour? You see where I'm going...

PHI: JJ for Dalembert + Thad Young + 2 1sts
It looks as though PHI is trying to close a hole in their 3 PT shooting (as I was writing this up, the Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono deal was announced), and JJ would help with that. Dalembert is on the outs. Young could be a player without a position if they want to go with a Brand / Speights front court with Jason Smith as the primary backup. On our side, Dalembert could be an athletic backup C and either Young or Marvin would be traded. I realize that PHI wouldn't want to add the extra 1sts, but without them, I'd pass and see if they could raise enough $$$ to try and sign JJ outright next off-season. With over $56 mil committed, another $6 in TO's on rookie contracts, and no real PG, I seriously doubt it.

[JoshB914]

^^^ Good stuff. But I don't think Boston does that trade. I don't think Phili would want to deal Thad Young (who has potential to be one of the best forwards in the league imo) AND two picks for JJ. But I would do any of these deals centered around those players. I love the idea of getting T. Young, I am such a fan of that guy.

I'm not as good with the trade suggestions as many on this board, but I think trading JJ has to be a real option for Sund right now. I doubt anything gets done, at least not this summer, but the guy is clearly not someone we can build our team around by maxing out offseason.

If we are paying JJ all that $$$ to go along Smith's contract and likely new deals for Bibby and Marvin (or wherever that money goes) we will be stuck winning 40-45 games or so for the foreseeable future. That is a very dangerous trap to fall into. Look at all the teams that were stuck in that position and didn't have the cajones to tear it down or the resources to build a true contender (Indiana, Phili post-final appearance, Jersey, and Minnesota to name a few). They all suffered through slow declines and only the Sixers have recovered after many tough seasons.

[HMFFL]

Minnesota has some good value.

2009 First Round Picks: 6th, 18th and 28th

Future First Round Picks Via Other Teams:

• Minnesota, via Philadelphia, receives a first round pick from Utah, as part of the Kyle Korver trade. Pick is protected 1 through 22 in 2009, 1 through 15 in 2010, 1 through 17 in 2011, 1 through 16 in 2012 and 1 through 16 in 2013.

Minnesota Players That Interest Me:

Mike Miller - Can easily be flipped for future first round pick and a decent role player.

Randy Foye - Solid combo guard but due a QF after next season.

Al Jefferson - We can request him, but I doubt Minny moves him.

For Joe Johnson:

I would seek two first round picks from Minnesota, one having to be this years 6th overall pick, and the second can be negotiated. The future Utah Jazz first round pick has some good value if Carlos Boozer does opt out and signs with another team. Paul Millsap could very well leave too. Randy Foye would also need to be included with the trade and possibly Mike Miller who we flip before the deadline.

What scares Minnesota off is probably Joe Johnson being an expiring contract.

[parson]

1) An injured Joe is hard to trade. We'd never get value.

2) A healthy Joe is crazy to trade. He's too valuable to us.

You know, a few trades like the ones y'all are suggesting and we'd be right back in the lottery.

[evildallas]

1) An injured Joe is hard to trade. We'd never get value.

2) A healthy Joe is crazy to trade. He's too valuable to us.

You know, a few trades like the ones y'all are suggesting and we'd be right back in the lottery.

So I take it that you are in the camp to extend Joe at the max, because short of that he is likely to walk next summer? I would guess that would return us to the lottery as well.

[theatlfan]

1) An injured Joe is hard to trade. We'd never get value.

2) A healthy Joe is crazy to trade. He's too valuable to us.

You know, a few trades like the ones y'all are suggesting and we'd be right back in the lottery.

There's a bigger ? here: with JJ, can we become good enough to challenge for a championship? If not, then keeping him means that we would have to go back to the lottery eventually. If we trade him now, then we'd have a much better chance @ an NBA Final in 5 years. So the ? is what's the upside of this team? If you think it's championships, then there is no reason to trade JJ. If you think it's a 4/5 seed in the East and consistent 2nd round exits, then why not sell high on JJ?

[parson]

Trades sound so easy until you actually try to do one. Joe is one of the best SGs in the NBA; if you deal him, you'll have to replace him. Then there's the question of what you'll receive in a trade. If you don't get a championship-quality center or PG, why bother?

It appears to me as if y'all are saying to just trade Joe for assorted talent, which isn't our biggest need. Getting talent is easy if you have the money. If championship are our goal, we need to emphasize getting a top-of-the-line starter, which is not so easy. Joe's nearing his prime; let's focus on upgrading a position that NEEDS help.

[MaceCase]

Well that's the thing Parson you have to look at the big picture and face the realities it presents. I believe it to be fact that you do not trade stars for stars. It just doesn't happen, You are not going to trade Joe for a Bosh or Howard etc because teams do not see any changes with a one for one deal, your scoring just comes from a different position. Rather than just addressing an area of need it addresses the need while creating another. Only time a team would trade a star for another star is if they feel they have a talent behind him that can be just as good if not better, I can't think of a team in the league that currently has that dynamic. Detroit was an example of that last year with their confidence in Stuckey being their future but even that was not really to incorporate AI but to see his salary come off the books.
There are so many factors you have to look at with Joe, the fact MANY team's have shed salary for 2010 and they are not going to justify gutting their teams for the past two years just to not make a splash in free agency. That means Joe will get paid, he will demand a large salary and can pick and choose which situation he want's out of it. I have it on supreme confidence that niether Lebron nor Wade is going to NY and will stay with their current teams. That will leave the Knicks who have the ability to sign two stars chasing hard after a guy like Joe and don't you think Joe would jump at the chance to get paid AND play with a Bosh or Amar'e? For a coach he likes?
That brings another factor as to why Joe might leave. Woody has a year left and there is no telling if he'll be back (hopefully not) Joe has a good report with him and if he's gone Joe might leave out of solidarity for him or he simply doesn't trust whomever we get to replace him.
Then there is his age, his recent injury spats, and the fact the offense is far too dependent on him, stunting the growth of our other younger players. You watch how when Joe goes down to the flu Marvin takes over and amasses 7% of Joe's total season FT attempts in two games, you watch how Joe doesn't show up in the playoffs and Smoove takes it upon himself to do all the scoring. so we see the potential in our young core and how they can thrive outside of Joe having to pound the ball for 18seconds at a time. With a new steeper contract management and coaching would feel the need to continue with the same strategy at their expense.
After all is said and done a deal with Washington sounds the best to me. We would recieve a big back in return on a great deal in Blatche, a veteran expiring most likely Mike James, a pure scorer SG in Young, and a top 5 pick that could very much become our PG of the future. I'm sure the Wizards would insist that we take back Stevenson but even that is a positive because when healthy he is a great defender and would give us depth. A deal like that represents great value for us and the Wizards who with their vet core are in a win now mentality. If Joe doesn't work out they shed his salary and escape lux tax land while we'll be set with depth and talent for the forseeable future.

[theatlfan]

Trades sound so easy until you actually try to do one. Joe is one of the best SGs in the NBA; if you deal him, you'll have to replace him. Then there's the question of what you'll receive in a trade. If you don't get a championship-quality center or PG, why bother?

It appears to me as if y'all are saying to just trade Joe for assorted talent, which isn't our biggest need. Getting talent is easy if you have the money. If championship are our goal, we need to emphasize getting a top-of-the-line starter, which is not so easy. Joe's nearing his prime; let's focus on upgrading a position that NEEDS help.

Still trying to figure out where your going with this. I don't think anyone believes that trading JJ wouldn't be taking a step back. The question we're faced with is would doing this allow us to take two steps forward later. What the OP is trying to ask is what could we get for him if we did trade him so that scenarios can be compared on both sides of the question.

The going rate for a star player is (or maybe, was) 3 good prospects. Obviously, there's a sliding scale here depending on whether the prospect has shown already, what can he contribute today, even has he even been named. But all of those prospects would in some way go toward replacing what we would lose (at least in the short term) by trading JJ. Even the players who remain on the team would need to help out in replacing JJ. I haven't seen anyone dispute that. But if we get a team that would be championship worthy in 3-4 years, then why not discuss it?

The 1 notion I disagree with is your claim that JJ is just nearing his prime. No, he's been in his prime and now we're left trying to figure out when he'll be out of it and how much he'll decline thereafter. He's an NBA wing, not a MLB batter, an NFL OL, or even an NBA big. The prime for these types is generally closer to 26-29 - maybe even younger now; JJ will be 28 at the start of next season. Will he be able to extend his prime? Maybe, he isn't the typical wing since he relies a little more on his skills and size than simply sheer athleticism (which he has as well). Will he decline sharply before the typical end of his prime? Maybe, he's played a LOT of NBA minutes and has played injured a lot, and these things typically lead to a premature end of a good career. He could be in the middle of his prime and have several years left afterwards or he could be about at the end of the line, but he is definitely not "nearing" his prime.

[parson]

Still trying to figure out where your going with this. I don't think anyone believes that trading JJ wouldn't be taking a step back. The question we're faced with is would doing this allow us to take two steps forward later.

There's the point: you're assuming the "two steps forward" thing, which is almost impossible in reality. Think on it a minute, just how easy is it to acquire a star? Now think how hard it'll be to acquire a star with the type of assets you're espousing.

And, remember, if we only get ONE star, we haven't advanced the team one iota. Your plan only works if we improve.

Short of it, the odds of improving under your scenario: poor. The odds of us falling: HUGE.