WAS-DAL-MIN (again?!)

[shrink]

The problem with WAS trades is that the Wizards want to do two things .. get under the lux AND fix their SG spot .. and the #5 has too much value for either one, and not enough for both. MIN deals break down when the Wolves get forced to eat 2010 cap space.

So what do you think of this:

DAL GIVES: Stackhouse + Shawne
DAL GETS: Mike Miller

MIN GIVES: Mike Miller + Foye + Telfair + #18
MIN GETS: #5 + Etan Thomas + Mike James + Nick Young + Shawne

WAS GIVES: #5 + Etan Thomas + Mike James + Nick Young
WAS GETS: Foye + Telfair + Stackhouse + #18 + $2.2 mil TPE


WAS saves $5.25 for Stackhouse, $2.2 for the TPE, and $1.5 mil for the pickswap. I think that gets them under the lux, for a savings of $17-$18 mil, and also upgrades the SG spot with Foye (while retaining defensive Stevenson).

MIN gets the #5, and the young scorer Nick Young (though I would prefer Javale McGee). It costs them more vet talent and the #18, but those are guys they'd have to pay to retain in 2010 anyway, and it creates minutes for the young guys. Mike James gets moved to MIL in a Ridnour deal.


Thoughts?

[Basti]

I'd do it. depending on how highly we think of Young me might consider taking Thabeet if he's still on board at #5. take a PG with the #6 pick.

btw: what's the incentive for Milwaukee to trade Ridnour for James? aren't both expiring contracts?

[shrink]

I'd do it. depending on how highly we think of Young me might consider taking Thabeet if he's still on board at #5. take a PG with the #6 pick.

btw: what's the incentive for Milwaukee to trade Ridnour for James? aren't both expiring contracts?

You're right - their contracts are almost identical expirings, and they are sick of Ridnour. I'd actually try to use this swap as the start of a way to sign Sessions by creating 2010 cap space with a larger base for a 125% + $100,000 cap match, with Taylor eating money to subsidize a #10 for future UTA pick swap. With the extra minutes available from the WAS trade, I wouldn't mind a third lottery pick. I didn't include the MIL part because I didn't want to complicate the initial deal.

[john2jer]

I'd hit that.

Quick glance at numbers without doing the addition shows we actually save money in 2010 on this trade, assuming we don't extend the QO to Shawne Williams.

Then we hope we can get a Harden and Evans/Holiday combo at 5/6, then we have our backcourt of the future with our front court.

Nick young's a solid bench guard. Etan Thomas adds a little size to our bench frontcourt.

Then if Gomes and Brewer can lockdown the SF position, we're golden.

[C.lupus]

I'd do it. Then trade #4 (Hill) + #10 to MEM for #2 (Rubio)

Draft Evans at 6:

PG - Rubio, Ridnour, Evans
SG - Young, Evans, Brewer
SF - Brewer, Gomes
PF - Love, Jefferson
C - Jefferson, Thomas

plus about $18 million in 2010 expirings.

[the_bruce]

I'd need to know who was available in order to do this trade.

Miller + Foye + 18 is a ton of value to give up for what amounts to the #5 + young. I'm pretty willing to ship foye out in the right deals too.

if the trade off is using some 2010 cap space or foye. I'd use the cap space. Also to be completely honest MN could probably net the most value by doing both. A deal where MN ships out foye and takes on some 2010 cap space eliminates foyes cap hold and gives the team getting foye the option of keeping/extending/etc.

If MN lands Harden + curry in this deal it's a yes for me. All other player combos is probably a solid no. Unless another deal is in place to add someone else I like or who fits with the team vision.

[the_bruce]

Harden + holiday is a yess for me too. Wouldnt mind evans + holiday either I suppose.

[Esohny]

I like it quite a bit if we could get a Harden-Holiday combo. Just slightly less if it was Holiday-Evans or Holiday-Derozan.

[tvwolves7]

Love it if we also have a secondary trade that would bring in Ridnaur or another PG with same type of talent/contract.

However if there was no second trade I am afraid of trading two PGs at once.

[the_bruce]

Harden + Curry is by far the best combo! Both fit well with love + al. Both high bbiq and ready to contribute immediately

Is shrink somehow also getting me the #10? Can I have clark too?

[prefuse73]

I would only pull the trigger if Harden falls to #5. The key is Thabeet, if he impresses OKC or Memphis enough to take him, Harden will fall to #5. The kings have Kmart so I would assume they go with a PG.

A Harden/Holiday combo would be excellent in my eyes and well worth the trade. Giving up on Foye is tough, but since he is now an undersized sg and not a pg, he is expendable.

Is there anyway we could get Haywood instead of Thomas.. perhaps add Smith to the deal.

Haywood - Jefferson
Jefferson - Love - Williams
Brewer - Gomes - Williams
Harden - Young
Holiday - James - Brown

Get JVG to coach this team and we become a defensive powerhouse.

[john2jer]

Harden and Holiday or Harden and Evans makes me all warm and tingly inside. I love the perimeter defense and length we suddenly have. Makes things a world easier on Love and Jefferson inside. Especially since we still have Brewer.

[Biff Cooper]

Brilliant for Wash Shrink- if you can get them under the lux in this deal. Not sure MN does it unless Harden or Rubio fall to 5.
I've seen you send Miller to Dallas quite a few times. It probably makes sense for them? Have any of the Dallas fans or Dallas F.O. said anything to show that they would do this?

[shrink]

Brilliant for Wash Shrink- if you can get them under the lux in this deal. Not sure MN does it unless Harden or Rubio fall to 5.
I've seen you send Miller to Dallas quite a few times. It probably makes sense for them? Have any of the Dallas fans or Dallas F.O. said anything to show that they would do this?

The Mike Miller for Stackhouse idea was originally proposed by a DAL fan, and several of their major trade posters have signed on, so I think that part's pretty solid.

Miller is a nice fit for DAL because its an obvious talent gain, and Cuban is certainly willing to pay to add talent, especially when they owe their unprotected 2010 1st to NJN. Mike Miller's biggest negative .. passing too much .. is not such a bad thing on the championship-level Mavs. His team-oriented play won't disrupt what they do well, and he plugs a big hole for them. Can you imagine the rebounding when the two best rebounding guards, Kidd and Mike Miller are out there together? Best of all, his deal expires this year, and gives the Mavs a lot of flexibility in 2010, when the big contracts of Dirk, Dampier, and Josh Howard could all come off the books.

[the_bruce]

In the most likely scenario that makes harden available the draft goes like this..
griffin
rubio
thabeet
holiday?

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'd give up pretty much anything sans Love/Jefferson for that #5 pick

[C.lupus]

Seems pretty unlikely to me that Harden will drop but I'd be all for it it happened.

[Biff Cooper]

I get the sense that if Sacramento makes a #4 + other good stuff for #2 trade that Griffin, Harden, Thabeet and Rubio will all be gone before #5. If the price is too steep for Sac to move up, they might reach for Holiday, Evans, Curry, Jennings, or Flynn, leaving Harden or Thabeet on the board at 5. I'm starting to get the feeling that 3 years from now, Harden will be the top player from this draft.

[revprodeji]

holy crap that is a great deal. Does Wash like it?

I am a big Nick Young fan. We could use the 5/6 for Thabeast (*if there) and whatever pg we have ranked highest. (holiday/curry) wow wow wow. I love it.

[younggunsmn]

I love the idea of grabbing #5, I think they're the most realistic trade partners for us if we're looking to grab another pick. But this doesn't make much sense for washington.

Dallas makes out like bandits and the wiz get raped. stack and williams are garbage.

Why would washington swap young for foye and 5 while just swapping expiring contracts?
They are high on young, he's shown flashes of brilliance.
It makes much more sense for them to add miller and drop salary because:
1. Miller = win now. arenas and butler in their prime, jamison fading.
2. Miller's passing is a perfect fit next to arenas.
3. Nick Young = future at SG.
4. If they're out of the race they may be able to deal miller at the deadline for a future pick.

The bad situation is they have 76 million already committed against the lux for '09.
they are still under the lux for 2010. Dealing their expirings only makes sense for them if it helps them expand the trade to dump salary within the 125% rules, or if they're sent for straight up cap space, ala kurt thomas. Sadass Dallas is in dreamland if they think they have the ammo to move into the top 5. their best chip, josh howard, has disappointed and his best value may be as an expiring contract after all the injuries and personal problems last year.

Don't sleep on their young talent, just because their young guys don't put up big numbers doesn't mean they are busts. Crittenton, Young, and McGee played well in spotty minutes last year and have alot of size and athleticism. If we could pick one off in a deal involving #5 (especially McGee) it would be highway robbery.

Maybe they would be interested in craig smith since he had a 30 pt game against them last year.

The first 2 guys I think they'd like to move are songalia and stevenson, who are expendable and have 2 years left (player options). Miller for 5 + garbage is a very possible framework for a deal (especially if they've soured on jordan hill), the question is now much sweetening will it take?
If Arenas is their long term PG, Young arguably as talented as any SG in this draft, and they are set at SF and C, who really is there at 5 that is that much of an upgrade for them?

Also, if they want a pick back it will likeley not be 18 or 28, because whatever draft pick salary they add will be doubled by the luxury tax. More likely we would send out next year's utah pick (which if boozer and okur or milsap bolt may not be delivered for several years if they miss the playoffs in a loaded west (OKC, Memphis, LAC all potential future playoff teams).

We have 4 "chips" to move up/grab a lottery pick with:
(in order of value)
1. Miller (useful 9.9m expiring)
2. Gomes (nice contract, and potential quasi-expiring with only 2 mil guaranteed past '09)
3. Foye (potential RFA)
4. Cardinal, Madsen, Smith expirings (12.3 mil total).

I wouldn't want to use more than 2 of said chips in a trade.

If I'm washington this is the order of guys i'd like to deal:
Group A (don't let the door hit you in the ass)
1. songalia 2 yr 9.3 mil
2. stevenson 2 yr 8 mil
3. james 1 yr 6.5 mil
4. thomas 1 yr 7.3 mil
Group B (Possible if something nice comes back in return)
5. Haywood 1 yr 6 mil
6. Jamison (3 yr 40 mil) (if starting PF comes back maybe is quickest way to drop salary)
Group C (nice young players to hold on to)
7. McGuire
8. Pecherov
9. Crittenton
10. Young
11. McGee
Group D (core players)
12. Arenas (5 yrs 787 billion) (untradeable franchise player, seems like an oxymoron)
13. Butler (2 yrs 21 mil is a nice deal for a player of his caliber)

Wolves:
A (worthless expirings)
1. Cardinal 1-6.75
2. Madsen 1-2.84
B (young guys with nice deals who may or may not fit long term)
3. Telfair 2-5.2
4. Smith 1-2.76
5. Brown 1-0.74
6. Foye 1-3.6 (then RFA)
7. Gomes (1-5.8 or 4-17.0)
8. Brewer (1-2.9 with 3.7 team option)
9. Peckovic (draft rights held)
C (core players)
1. Love
2. Jefferson


I'd gauge foye's value as about a 15-25 pick in this draft to the right team who doesn't like this crop of players. Philly maybe?

Thomas 7.3
James 6.5
Stevenson 3.9
Songalia 4.5
#5
total 22.2

for

Miller 9.9
cardinal 6.8
Telfair 2.5
Total 18.2


Saves them 4 million this year (8 mil with lux) and 6.2 million next year.
Miller and Cardinal are still tradeable expirings.

This is probably the most I'd offer them.
The cap hit next year would not be so bad as that it would prohibit us from going after a free agent. James would be cut, thomas held onto for trade chip purposes. Washington also gets a 4 mil trade exception to help with further maneuverings.