Realistic Rubio-to-HOU Scenario

[Prospect Dong]

...

You're high.

Memphis fans can tout the rumored SAC deals, but I think Rubio's value is closer to the offer that NYK is making: the #8 and Mobley's 80%-covered '10 expiring for #2, Darko and Marko.

I think the knicks have probably restricted themselves to offers that work under the salary cap.

In any case, you're way, way off here ecuhus, uncharacteristically so. The "rumoured kings offer" isn't, in fact, what the kings are rumoured to be offering. It's what smills has been offering on the trade board. So think briefly about the relationship between the packages in which smills offers the kings assets and the kind of trades that eventually go down. I don't see memphis rushing to make a trade that rips them off worse than smills wants to.

Again, Jaric for an expiring an a couple of second round prospects? Start by thinking about how the Mayo/Love swap last year looked, and then compare the difference between Mayo and Love to the difference between Rubio and the handful of guys slated to be available at #5.

It's not close.

[ecuhus1981]

I guess we'll see on draft night...

[Prospect Dong]

I guess we'll see on draft night...

Well, yes and no. As I've said elsewhere (a lot) it's possible that Wallace blinks and makes some kind of trade based on a belief that Thabeet (or whoever) is pretty close to as good as Rubio and he can't afford to look bad if Rubio digs his heels in. if Elgin Baylor can give away a second round pick in order to trade down from Okafor to Livingston, Wallace could do your deal.

But if we're talking actual fair value, do you honestly believe that ditching a 7.5 mil deal a year early and adding a second rounder is worth the talent difference between Rubio and, well, whoever? Is this actually a deal you think memphis ought to do? Why do you think you've been significantly outbid by smills, of all people?

[ecuhus1981]

If you believe the Kings' offers are the benchmark for Rubio's value, that's fine.

But why don't you also believe in that the Knicks' offer is valid? After all, they were one of the three teams mentioned most recently (the Celtics and Rockets being the others). Also, the Wizards' offer (McGee and the #5 for the #2 alone, no Jaric) doesn't sound nearly as costly as your estimation of Rubio's value.

Like I said, we'll see...

[Prospect Dong]

If you believe the Kings' offers are the benchmark for Rubio's value, that's fine.

But why don't you also believe in that the Knicks' offer is valid? After all, they were one of the three teams mentioned most recently (the Celtics and Rockets being the others). Also, the Wizards' offer (McGee and the #5 for the #2 alone, no Jaric) doesn't sound nearly as costly as your estimation of Rubio's value.

Like I said, we'll see...

You mean that knicks offer that doesn't work under the salary cap? I think I already hinted that it might not be legit on account of, you know, the fact it doesn't work under the salary cap. Take a look at what fans, usually biased fans (and ones capable of constructing a workable trade) are offering to move up for Rubio. Do you honestly think that there's not much of a gap between the top 2 prospects and the next bunch? Or is it just really cheap to move up? Because the Griz can certainly muster a second rounder and eat 7.5 mil in bad deals if that's all it takes to grab Griffin.

[ecuhus1981]

Griffin







Rubio


Curry/Harden/etc.

The Kings are desperate for Rubio, but no one else seems to be willing to offer the kind of package they are. If Sacramento is smart, though, they'll pull back their offers closer to what others are offering.

[Mr. E]

Props for trying to distribute talent and value in this deal as evenly as possible, but ultimately I don't think that it is realistic as I don't think that the Rockets will be willing to part with some of the pieces that Memphis may want from them to move up, or be included in this deal.