Bulls fan trade idea

[tisbee]

Wanted to really think about this one.
First,this is a package the Rockets would hope gets them into top 5 or so.
Second,Barry could be bought out and return-a secret part of deal.

Depending on who's available,I could get behind this.
If BJ Mullens is there,it's on. He's raw but could be the tall back-up C the Rockets-and us-have wanted,and he's young enough that he could possibly be Yao's successor. W/him the Rockets don't need to spend on a back-up C and can still buy into late First,early Second and get one of the multitude of short PFs that they can hopefully develope into Landry-like,or a project PG.

If Mullins is not there I could see the team drafting Budinger(slight shudder) as system and just-in-case guy if Artest/Wafer negotiations go bad. In this scenario,I could see the Rockets split the MLE between Wafer and Channing Frye. Frye would be the outside shooting big who could complement Hayes/Dorsey and unlike Cook he occassionaly rebounds,blocks a shot.(Suprisingly,thru their careers to date Frye has a marginally better rebound rate than Paul Milsap.)

One real advantage to Hinrich is he is the perfect complement to Brooks when Adelman wants to go to his 2-PG lineups. But the team would need a 3rd point or at least a combo gd. I believe Luther Head is available

[moofs]

I believe Luther Head is available

I know you were joking, but still...
HEERREEESSSSSYYYYYY!!!!
Where's the Spanish Inquisition when you need it?

[tisbee]

C'mon Moofs admit it-for a split-second you went hmmm.
In truth I just wanted to see if someone's howls of rage would be audible in LA. Yours came close.

[moofs]

Yes, I'd strongly consider. We'd lose him at PF which hurts, but that would net us a legit starting PG that would be a terrific fit in the system we run.

Our system is to get the ball to our PFs and C for efficient post, close-in, and elbow scoring. We have a few mid-efficiency gunners on the outside, but the passing there comes from the inside->out, not outside->in. With a passing guard - and I basically consider Hinrich to be equivalent to Alston - you'd need finishing options to be passing to, and we're getting rid of one of them. In short, it throws off the current balance of our team without providing another obvious benefit, or more accurately, without creating another offensive mismatch/advantage.

It relegates Brooks to the bench where he can be most effective and not be counted to run a team for long stretches. Landry is great, and I love what he brings off the bench, but in the end it's off the bench in which we have our clear cut starter in Scola, and Hayes, who at worst is a nice compliment to him off the bench. Dorsey seems to be coming along, and considering we don't have much needs, we could devote the MLE towards signing some cheap big man that could come off the bench and try to replace what Landry is able to bring.

That's easier said than done. While I'll be happy if Dorsey puts his game together next season, I wouldn't want to count on either him or Joe Smith (who is a Juwan Howard-like player, with neither JS nor JH being particularly effective) as the backup PF/C. For our system, it's much better to have 48 minutes of production at that position than 32.

C'mon Moofs admit it-for a split-second you went hmmm.

It's theoretically possible that I might have conceded, in some alternate universe, that Head's ball handling skills had improved by the year he left us to the point where for a minimum contract he made a functionally tolerable third string shooter/co-ball handler/spot player. I mean, I actually was saying that when he left us (between sighs of relief), but can't really bring myself to reaffirm the statement now. Given discrepancies in PT, he might still better than White, as of last year (and they're the same age).

[tisbee]

"Given discrepancies in PT, he might still better than White, as of last year (and they're the same age)."

Sadly,White in a few minutes of one Laker game's garbage time made more shots than Head did in the entire 6 games against Utah.

The unspoken assumption on Hinrich is he would start along w/McGrady and McGrady would do the playmaking,leaving Brooks to be the playmaker for the second unit.

I'm torn on Landry. I like the energy he can bring and how he can fire up the team,but worry he's close to his ceiling. He went from 16.9min/game to 21.3min/game(and twice total minutes),yet increased his scoring by a hair over 1 point,rebounded the same,assisted about the same,stole the ball the same,doubled his anemic shot-blocking and committed fouls about 22% less frequently. Not the big jump I hoped for.

[moofs]

Sadly,White in a few minutes of one Laker game's garbage time made more shots than Head did in the entire 6 games against Utah.

Much as I never liked Luther, I couldn't ever bring myself to hold Utah against him. Not only did he never have Yao pulling any low post presence, Scola fairly well embattled by Okur, Boozer, Kirilenko and Milsap, McGrady playing as a shell, Alston injured (i.e. EVERY guy that could buy him some time to get his feet set missing the ability to do so for one reason or another), but as backup SG, he was also being alternately guarded by Derek Fisher, Matt Harpring, Gordan Giricek, and Ronnie Brewer.

I'm torn on Landry. I like the energy he can bring and how he can fire up the team,but worry he's close to his ceiling. He went from 16.9min/game to 21.3min/game(and twice total minutes),yet increased his scoring by a hair over 1 point,rebounded the same,assisted about the same,stole the ball the same,doubled his anemic shot-blocking and committed fouls about 22% less frequently. Not the big jump I hoped for.

Yeah, same here. He IS an older player (2nd year, but also 25 and already injured several times), so his ceiling won't be that much higher than where he is, if any. I think his rebounding rate didn't go up because of his offensive rebounds going down, significantly, and that was due to a change in how he was used, with an increase in elbow jumpers. With his increased focus on spreading the floor, he was not able to focus as much on getting hustle o-boards. This is also why his overall percentages dropped. His percentages by region actually did not significantly change, even though I'd thought they did prior to checking just now.

From NBA Hotspots: Percentage of Shots by Distance - Percentage Made - Totals (by section)
2007-2008
72.6% - 69.1% - 159 (rim circle)
10.1% - 31.9% - 22 (11, 4, 7) (ft line & in circle)
16.9% - 48.6% - 37 (2, 5, 10, 13, 7) (ft to 3p line circle)
00.1% - (pssh) - 1 (3pts)

2008-2009
60.6% - 66.5% - 251 (rim circle)
18.4% - 42.1% - 76 (39, 13, 24) (ft line & in circle)
20.3% - 46.4% - 84 (10, 19, 22, 19, 14) (ft to 3p line circle)
00.1% - (pssh) - 3 (3pts)

As for his scoring average, had it increased proportionally with his minutes, it would have gone up to 10.21, however, because of the dip in his FG%, which was 93% of last year's, it should have dropped back down to 9.51, with his actual PPG for this year being 9.2. Meanwhile, his FT% jumped from .661 to .813 with almost twice the FTA. As 2.8 of his PPG came from freethrows this year, and 2.6 last year, that increase amounts to a 22.9% increase in his FT scoring efficiency while drawing fouls about 16.5% more often, resulting in about .43 more ppg. His minutes / shots ratio went from 3.247 to 3.509, so he actually shot the ball about 7% less frequently this year as well. Had he not increased his FT efficiency, he'd have actually only scored about 8.8 ppg (10.21 * (100% - 7% fg% - 7% fga) = 8.78. 8.78 + .43 = 9.2!).

I'm assuming that the decrease in usage rate, combined with the slightly lower percentages on shooting and lower o-board rate (his defensive rebounds increased in line with his minutes) were validated by how the strategy fit into the team's overall offensive scheme. As far as any other category, any changes to APG, SPG, BPG, TO, PF, and 3P are all pretty much statistically insignificant with him. Of those, I'd watch PF and TO the closest. His TO rate increased a bit much, but his foul rate went down, so they should be neutralized against each other.

[TMU]

Very nice analysis moofy. Just my 2 cents about his scoring:

As indicated from his FGAPG/MPG, Landry took fewer shots per minute. He has also added a high-post jumper to his offense - which he shoots pretty well. His increasing demand for those jumpshots wasn't met by his teammates partly due to two reasons: 1. The lack of Landry high post pick-n-rolls. 2. His teammates' inability to get him the ball whenever he's wide open.

Improved PG play and McGrady's potential return could solve this problem.

[moofs]

It could. That post only explained the reason for Landry's apparent decrease in effectiveness this year. The question is why they deliberately did that. My guess is that by pulling Landry out of the post, it helped open the lane up for Brooks, which means that his man has to back off him when he's at the arc, giving him more room to shoots 3's and improve his efficiency (which happened). If that's the case, I'll happily take a 3.2 point decrease on Carl's 2P% for a 3.6 point increase in Brooks's 3p%. Unfortunately, Brooks had a massive decrease in 2P%, but as the whole thing only moved his FG% down by .9%, it was still more than offset by his 3P% increase. Of course, that's all assuming this was the goal.

Aaron Brooks
2007-2008
FG 93/225 - 41.3%
2P 57/117 - 48.7%
3P 36/109 - 33.0%
2P/3P = 52% 2's
2008-2009
FG 316/783 - 40.4%
2P 203/474 - 42.8%
3P 113/309 - 36.6%
2P/3P = 60.5% 2's

(i really want that charty thing I mentioned in the other stat thread so I can stop calculating all this crap by hand - takes too much time. ... Hey, I think I just found a valid use for Excel!)

[texasholdem]

Landry vs Lakers

11/7 - 12 pts, 6 rebs, 26 mins
1/13 - 21 pts, 8 rebs, 30 mins
3/11 - 10 pts, 8 rebs, 26 mins

Game 1 - 7 pts, 2 rebs, 12 mins
Game 2 - 21 pts, 10 rebs, 24 mins
Game 3 - 10 pts, 6 rebs, 21 mins
Game 4 - 2 pts, 1 reb, 12 mins
Game 5 - 9 pts, 3 rebs, 28 mins
Game 6 - 15 pts, 9 rebs, 27 mins
Game 7 - 4 pts, 2 rebs, 22 mins

A couple of great games, a couple of stinkers but overall Carl is a postive for us against LA
(he shot 60% against them in both the regular season and playoffs)

[tisbee]

Rockets won Games 1,4,6. Landry only had one good game among the three. Decent from the back-up 4,not great.

While Landry along w/other Rocket bigs missed McGrady,one thing that stuck out from Moofs' excellent work is how Landry seemed to be kept away from the basket. His percentage of shots from inner circle to FT line skyrocketed last yr. Either teams were really packing the paint against the Rockets or Landry lacked the strength/skill/determination to get inside.

[texasholdem]

Or Adelman told him to shoot jumpers? Scola took a lot of those midrange shots too.