The What Should We Do With the 5th Pick II: IBJ Edition

[closg00]

^^^
Etan Thomas, meet your replacement Jordan Hill

[Wizardspride]

Does everyone think that the Caron Butler comparisons to Summers are valid?

I sure do, the guy has pretty good athleticism for his size, is automatic from mid range and has good strength.

He is 6'8 and 245lbs and only 6% body fat (pre draft measurements), so he is pretty solidly well built.

If he fell we have to take him in the 2nd.

I think the comparisons are very valid.

In fact, I would argue that Summers is much more athletic than Caron.

The main thing I'd like to see Summers become better at is putting the ball on the floor.

[Dat2U]

^^^
Etan Thomas, meet your replacement Jordan Hill

LOL, Imagine a slimmer, more athletic version of Etan with better health and a slightly more reliable jumper from 15 ft. That sir would be Jordan Hill.

And just like Etan, Jordan has the chisled face, muscular physique, warlock styled braids, questionable hands and low b-ball IQ & on court awareness,

My question is, does Jordan write prose?

[Ruzious]

Per Chad Ford, Josh Smith is on the block. Regarding the Wiz, Rubio's camp doesn't want him to go here. Jordan Hill also is in play for the 5th pick.

You could knock me over with a feather if they pick Hill - more because he's so raw than for any lack of talent. I can't see them keeping so many clueless bigs - including Etan. And if Hill is a poet; he don't know it.

Josh Smith on the block? I bet they'd trade Horford if all things (trade compensation) were equal.

[Wizardspride]

Per Chad Ford, Josh Smith is on the block. Regarding the Wiz, Rubio's camp doesn't want him to go here. Jordan Hill also is in play for the 5th pick.

You could knock me over with a feather if they pick Hill - more because he's so raw than for any lack of talent. I can't see them keeping so many clueless bigs - including Etan. And if Hill is a poet; he don't know it.

Josh Smith on the block? I bet they'd trade Horford if all things (trade compensation) were equal.

Josh Smith has some "issues" in addition to a large contract.

[DallasShalDune]

They won't trade Smith to a division rival. I'd like to have him, he can play on both sides of the ball, but we won't get him. I bet we have more of a chance to get Manu than Smith, due to age and locality of Smith and the Hawks.

And the chances of getting Ginobili are slim to none.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Blair played C at 315 last season in NCAA ball. Every opponent was 4+ inches taller, weighed 70 or so pounds less, and the game was called tighter. In the NBA at PF at 285 give or take 15, Blair will be a sub off the bench. He won't have to carry a team at either end.

Blair will have the benefit of three good weakside shotblockers if the Wizards draft him. He'd be an impact player off the bench IMO.

Where we agree, Brenice, is on Blatche. He's gotten better each year and I think he'll get there this season or next. There being consistent.

CCJ, you know I like Blair, but if he comes to the NBA at 285 plus... he might not pass a physical - let along be a sub.

Honestly, if he lost 40 lbs before the predraft measurement I think he must have been given a diet of colon cleansers followed by enemas to do that in 3 weeks. He's gotta gain some of it back from the 277 he was at when measured.

I'd call him a safe bet to be 285-290.

However, he could surprise me and continue to shed weight down to 260 or so. Barkley did it (and as I posted in the closed thread Sir Charles was briefly over 300 at Auburn at 20, just like Blair was over 300). Haslem slimmed down from nearly 285 (IIRC) in college. It's not unprecedented.

As it is, the 277 lb Blair is way above the rim in his workouts.

[fishercob]

Josh Smith makes star money. No team team depending on Smith as their star is ever going to win much. He's a breathtaking athlete, but leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to playing th actual game of basetball.

I can see Memphis making a run at him though with their cap room and athletes.

[mhd]

CCJ. Blair is falling like a rock per Chad Ford. There are MAJOR medical issues regarding his knees. His ACL tears and weight isn't helping him at all. At least Milsapp and Boozer didn't have injury issues and were not fat.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ. Blair is falling like a rock per Chad Ford. There are MAJOR medical issues regarding his knees. His ACL tears and weight isn't helping him at all. At least Milsapp and Boozer didn't have injury issues and were not fat.

Yep, it's what always happens when guys measure short at draft time.

IMO the MAJOR medical problems are going to help a team like San Antonio snatch him right away, very late in the first round.

I think the concern about his longevity in the NBA due to the length of the seasons are legit. However, he's 20 and that arthritic stuff will take 5-10 years to manifest IMO. Making him a very good player for at least 5 years IF HE DOESN'T BLOW UP LIKE SWEETNEY.

I believe Blair will maintain no more than 285 on average and he'll be a great role player in the NBA.

[Ruzious]

CCJ. Blair is falling like a rock per Chad Ford. There are MAJOR medical issues regarding his knees. His ACL tears and weight isn't helping him at all. At least Milsapp and Boozer didn't have injury issues and were not fat.

Yep, it's what always happens when guys measure short at draft time.

IMO the MAJOR medical problems are going to help a team like San Antonio snatch him right away, very late in the first round.

I think the concern about his longevity in the NBA due to the length of the seasons are legit. However, he's 20 and that arthritic stuff will take 5-10 years to manifest IMO. Making him a very good player for at least 5 years IF HE DOESN'T BLOW UP LIKE SWEETNEY.

I believe Blair will maintain no more than 285 on average and he'll be a great role player in the NBA.

At 285 plus... he will be Sweetney from day 1... and Tractor Trailer... and Hot Plate Williams. I don't think you're grasping what mhd said. Bad knees + too much weight + NBA pounding = really really bad knees. He's got to keep his weight down to stay in the NBA. He didn't get down to 277 for no reason.

[fishercob]

With 10 days to draft night, here's where I am on what to do with the pick:

1) Trade it for Rudy Fernandez if Portland will deal. It would be great to dump some salary in the deal, but frankly, I'd be willing to add some sweetener to get it done. Rudy may be the best player in the league when you measure production to salary/contract. With our salary structure, we desperately need a guy like that.

2) If Harden is still on the board, take him and be done with it. He fills a need and he'll be relatively cheap.

3) If Harden's gone, draft and keep Curry. We desperately need a competant backup to Gil. Sobering indications on Critt are that he's not a credible NBA point gaurd. If Curry's just too good to be "just a backup PG" than we'll adjust accordingly. But that's a good problem to have, not a bad one.

4) If Harden and Curry are gone, draft Rubio and hold his rights until the right deal comes along. It will.

My overall thinking is that the Wiz are going to be really good. We have a lot of depth -- especially up front -- and that's going to breed competition for minutes and some high quality play. Unless some sort of Kwame-Gasol type trade that is born out of another's team finanical vulnerability comes along, I don't think we need a big trade to have a big year. And as Dat points out, it would be unwise to make a big move on draft night out of panic/need to make a spalsh, as it would inhibit Ernie's ability to make a deal before the deadline. Luckily, that doesn't seem to be Ernie's style.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As far I'm concerned, the most logical, detailed explanations of why Blair WILL BE very good in the NBA are listed in these two links.

One from Basketball Prospectus and another from Wages of Win Journal(thanks again for posting this, MJG)

In the end, however, my choice [for National Player of the Year] came down to two more traditional candidates: Oklahoma's Blake Griffin and Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair. For the second consecutive year, I have opted to throw my support behind a player who will not win the actual award. I'm going with Blair ....
DeJuan Blair is both one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation and the second best defensive rebounder in major-conference hoops over the past five seasons. His unprecedented offensive rebounding has played a major role in making his team quite possibly the single most effective offense in the country.

Once again, performance in college is by no means a perfect predictor of what we see in the NBA. And there are suggestions that Blair might have a problem with his knees. But there is an immense difference between what [Blair and Hill] did last year in college. So even if Blair is a health-risk, there does appear a good chance that if he stays healthy will be a very productive NBA player

I believe Blair will be a beast at the next level.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ. Blair is falling like a rock per Chad Ford. There are MAJOR medical issues regarding his knees. His ACL tears and weight isn't helping him at all. At least Milsapp and Boozer didn't have injury issues and were not fat.

Yep, it's what always happens when guys measure short at draft time.

IMO the MAJOR medical problems are going to help a team like San Antonio snatch him right away, very late in the first round.

I think the concern about his longevity in the NBA due to the length of the seasons are legit. However, he's 20 and that arthritic stuff will take 5-10 years to manifest IMO. Making him a very good player for at least 5 years IF HE DOESN'T BLOW UP LIKE SWEETNEY.

I believe Blair will maintain no more than 285 on average and he'll be a great role player in the NBA.

At 285 plus... he will be Sweetney from day 1... and Tractor Trailer... and Hot Plate Williams. I don't think you're grasping what mhd said. Bad knees + too much weight + NBA pounding = really really bad knees. He's got to keep his weight down to stay in the NBA. He didn't get down to 277 for no reason.

We'll see how it pans out. Your points are valid Ruz.

Just see my above post about health risk not withstanding, Blair is potentially a very good NBA player.


FWIW: Barkley, Haslem, Duckworth, Austin all lost weight to have long NBA careers where weight wasn't a huge drawback for them.

[nate33]

With 10 days to draft night, here's where I am on what to do with the pick:

1) Trade it for Rudy Fernandez if Portland will deal. It would be great to dump some salary in the deal, but frankly, I'd be willing to add some sweetener to get it done. Rudy may be the best player in the league when you measure production to salary/contract. With our salary structure, we desperately need a guy like that.

2) If Harden is still on the board, take him and be done with it. He fills a need and he'll be relatively cheap.

3) If Harden's gone, draft and keep Curry. We desperately need a competant backup to Gil. Sobering indications on Critt are that he's not a credible NBA point gaurd. If Curry's just too good to be "just a backup PG" than we'll adjust accordingly. But that's a good problem to have, not a bad one.

4) If Harden and Curry are gone, draft Rubio and hold his rights until the right deal comes along. It will.

I basically agree. Rudy is pretty much the only guy out there whom I'd willingly trade the #5 for (assuming Bosh isn't obtainable). He's such a good fit, he's young yet experienced, and he'll cost less than the #5 (while also relieving us of the salary we send as "filler"). My order of preference

1. Trade Stevenson + #5 for Rudy
2. Draft Harden
3. Trade Pecherov or Crittenton + #5 for Rudy
4. Draft Curry

I figure at least one of those 4 options will definitely be on the table. I don't see any way that both Curry and Harden are gone by #5. Obviously, if we could get Portland to throw in their #24 pick in the Rudy trade, that would be gravy.

After drafting Harden or Curry, I'd still be open to offers to trade down. But there's no point speculating on such deals right now. We'd have to evaluate them as they come.

[doclinkin]

As far I'm concerned, the most logical, detailed explanations of why Blair WILL BE very good in the NBA are listed in these two links.

Once again, performance in college is by no means a perfect predictor of what we see in the NBA. And there are suggestions that Blair might have a problem with his knees. But there is an immense difference between what [Blair and Hill] did last year in college. So even if Blair is a health-risk, there does appear a good chance that if he stays healthy will be a very productive NBA player

I believe Blair will be a beast at the next level.

To be fair, Wages of Wins also touted (similar widebody rebounder) Joey Dorsey. That said, it's a bit of a leap from thinking a player should prove a solid NBA contributor to saying that they'll surely remain healthy. Blair dropped weight wayyy too fast to trust it. But he's a solid guy, dense, thick skull, big boned like a fossil wooly mammoth. He'd weigh heavy even at minimal body fat. heavier probably, he's got that dense muscle meat.

Still, Health is a real concern, weight is a real concern-- especially since I expect his defense will always be a bit of an issue, may interfere with his ability to get consistent minutes. Thus the motivation to stay slimmed and fit slips a little. I expect him to be a bit of a hacker. Lay a hard foul when beat. That's not a bad thing, but will affect his minutes. Hey, even successful 'short-bigs' like Millsapp and Maxiell have spent most of their careers on the bench. Millsapp has been a hack-fu 5th degree hack-belt in terms of fouls per 40. Now, If you have the complete game of a no-neck widebody like Elton Brand, well okay a team will find constant minutes for you. Blair ain't there. Was a bit fo a stamina risk and foul threat even in college. In limited minutes compared to other NCAA stars.

'Bench player' means he'll have to be consistently self-motivated even when underappreciated. (Metas suggest if his contributions are overlooked he might sulk somewhat). Now coming off the bench stamina may not be a real issue, but in my opinion that's dangerous. If he's slimmed up some but finds that at the NBA level he can't bull his man around like he used to he might actually throw blame on his lack of size. Thus give the man an excuse to let the scale creep back up. Thus endanger the knees, long-term career, etc.

I love what he adds on the intangibles side. He sets a pick like a jersey barrier. And if he's coming off the bench as a cyber-Ruffin to bang and thump on tired starters, he helps kill the body for the 4th quarter knockout. Let Blair loosen the jar for the finishers to twist it open.

But reports suggest he might fall. Medical staff raises a plausibly skeptical eyebrow. What if that's not a bad thing? Player's stock falls... it happens. I'm saying our best bet may be badmouthing him horribly then nabbing him with our early round 2 pick...

Though reports say Chicago liked him real well.

[Pollinator]

Big workout tomorrow for the Wiz- Curry, Flynn, and Jennings in.

At this point I would guess that whichever of those guys we like the best will be our pick- assuming we keep it, obviously.

[Zerocious]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFog8dt ... re=related

IQ?

[doclinkin]

7. I'm assuming that Davidson tried to get Curry the ball at the end of games where late game fouling is quite common. Someone like JJ Reddick got to the line 7.1 times per game in college. How many of those free throws did Curry get from attacking the basket or just being fouled off the ball when a team is over the limit. One and one foul shots may inflate Curry's attempts. I haven't seen much of Curry this year so I'm just wondering how he got to the free throw line.

Curry got to the free throw line two ways:

Not the fastest quicktwitch muscles but he's got deceptive speed. He's 'shifty'. Nice change of speed. Goes from 'slow' to 'go' the second his man looks away, can make an eye fake or shoulder fake as plausible as his actual move --to force a defender to shift focus and give him that narrow sliver he needs to do whatever. Many fouls happen just because your man is startled or surprised. If you're thinking quicker than him, you can get free. And here's where Curry's scrawn works to his benefit, he can fit through spaces that don't exist for other players. Good body and ball control, he can run through your space-- then, even in traffic can get his shot off, hit from unlikely angles.

The second reason is like unto the first. On his shot Curry has the quick release of a nervous gunfighter, ball leaves his hands like a caffeinated housefly. He needs zero point zero to put the ball in the air on a wire-guided trajectory. This means if you're contesting the shot you'd better be quick. It also means players will react to the flinch, if the first three times he fakes a drive then pulls up for a pinpoint three, then the next time he fakes the he'll lean into your jump and take the contact. And being an unfailingly polite baby faced skinny kid if he goes flying after the contact you suffer the penalty --even if he actually stuck his leg out and kicked you in the --uh, thigh-- in order to draw the contact.

Which leads to a third reason I occasionally saw.

Since he can embarrass a player despite looking like an underfed 8th grader, and since his athletics are deceptive (it looks like you should be kicking his ass and taking his lunch money) defenders get frustrated and try to match him foul-for-foul when he does something slightly sneaky or underhanded-- in a sportsmanlike competitive way of course. A MJ-esque push-off to get free when the refs are shaded from view, a sharp elbow in the spine when he's fighting for space on a box-out against a big.

But you don't win that game, refs call the retaliation foul on his opponents. He's not scared to mix it up and get in the scrum with the big boys. Maybe in part because the refs protect his tiny ass like they were his bigger brothers. Refs like a pretty offensive game same as anyone else. You can shoot an arc like that you'll get a few calls. And if not: no complaints he'll just pick himself up and get back on defense, maybe say a calm word at the half. Refs tend to give benefit of the doubt calls to highly skilled clutch players. And he's such a polite well-spoken good kid, with good parents, southern manners...

Mostly though he just thinks the game quicker than you and uses your own tendencies against you. He's the best second-half adjuster I've seen since, hmmn, I can't even think of anybody. Makes me think once he has access to scouting reports and film, whoo. Well, makes me confident that whatever his athletic shortfalls (less than you think-- JJ Redick couldn't slam that putback dunk in the Bobcats workout) he'll find a way to minimize them, find a way to succeed in the league.

[sfam]

CCJ. Blair is falling like a rock per Chad Ford. There are MAJOR medical issues regarding his knees. His ACL tears and weight isn't helping him at all. At least Milsapp and Boozer didn't have injury issues and were not fat.

This makes Blair a decent "risk" pick in the high teens to twenty range. He simply has no business being in lottery position. Whether or not he's going to be great, there's just too much risk there.