Game 66: Crew at Indians - 6/17/09

[livestrong4ever]

Gwynn doing a good job in San Diego is no surprise for me. Even though i was basically called an idiot for years for saying he will be a good baseball player.

[WEFFPIM]

Make this four outings in a row where Hoffman has been rocked it seems.

[Kerb Hohl]

Gwynn doing a good job in San Diego is no surprise for me. Even though i was basically called an idiot for years for saying he will be a good baseball player.

He's 0-4 tonight. Just to show you how small of a sample size his success is right now, let's imagine he goes 0 for his next 6. Not something totally out of the ordinary.

Now he's batting .279 after one more bad game. He has 5 doubles in 22 games and 80 at bats this year after 6 doubles in his first 240 at bats in his career. If he has a good season, he's going to bat .265 or .270 with 15 steals. Probably like 15 extra-base hits. You can find a player like that off the scrap heap so easily.

Now, assuming an 0-6 coming up isn't a good argument, but all I'm saying is once he goes through a 3 game swoon, then he's going to regress to his average.

Another thing. He's 2/5 in stealing bases. That isn't a good percentage.

The one thing he has going for him is SD is a great park for him to play in.

[ReasonablySober]

I can't believe you're talking about small recent sample sizes when that's exactly what people like you use to say he'll never be anything.

That's what was always so baffling to me. We're talking about someone that had solid success in the minors and had tools to offer a big league club that showed some patience. But there are plenty that can't wait to hammer the guy before he's had anywhere near a full season's worth of at-bats. Maybe he never amounts to anything. But it's always bugged the hell out of me that to some his career was set in stone so early.

[Kerb Hohl]

One more thing, and I'll stop ranting on this topic.

Last year, after 20 games, Jason Kendall was playing good defense with an .883 OPS (he had over a .1000 OPS after 15). He was batting .345.

By the end of the year, he hit .246 with a .651 OPS.

I'm not saying Gwynn isn't better than he showed us in his first few glimpses here. But seriously, calm down, guys. It's been 22 games for Gwynn. He'll be back to hitting .250 with no power in a few weeks. He isn't even that good of a base-stealer.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, a fairly small sample size for Gwynn in the previous years. However, he put up half a season of plate appearances in that small sample.

Trust me, I don't think he is as bad as his first 250ish at bats showed, but he isn't very good.

Look, Hernan Irrabarren. A much better minor league player than Gwynn: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=iribar001her. If he went somewhere and hit .300 for 3 weeks, and someone mentioned it...most people would say..."who?"

[ReasonablySober]

One more thing, and I'll stop ranting on this topic.

Last year, after 20 games, Jason Kendall was playing good defense with an .883 OPS (he had over a .1000 OPS after 15). He was batting .345.

By the end of the year, he hit .246 with a .651 OPS.

I'm not saying Gwynn isn't better than he showed us in his first few glimpses here. But seriously, calm down, guys. It's been 22 games for Gwynn. He'll be back to hitting .250 with no power in a few weeks. He isn't even that good of a base-stealer.

What will Gerut be batting by then? Look into that crystal ball of yours. I'm fascinated.

[ReasonablySober]

Yeah, a fairly small sample size for Gwynn in the previous years. However, he put up half a season of plate appearances in that small sample.

Trust me, I don't think he is as bad as his first 250ish at bats showed, but he isn't very good.

Look, Hernan Irrabarren. A much better minor league player than Gwynn: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=iribar001her. If he went somewhere and hit .300 for 3 weeks, and someone mentioned it...most people would say..."who?"

Ahhhh....so it's the name. Of course.

[trwi7]

It's raining south of Cleveland, but the stadium is pretty close to Lake Erie and there's no rain near Lake Erie.

You were saying?

You sure got me samsquatch. When I say there's no rain near the stadium a couple hours before gametime and then rain shows up for about 15 minutes right at gametime, it means I've been pwned.

What ever happened to "the throw beats the runner he's out?" Terrible call by the ump.

I've always hated that rule and I never used it when I was an umpire. One coach in a little league game tried arguing that reasoning with me and I totally pwned his ass in front of his kid and everybody in the crowd.

Crazy question: is Prince actually a good defensive first baseman???

He actually has a worse UZR/150 than he did last year. Although that doesn't count balls that are dug out. He's been much, much better at that this year. Hopefully I didn't jinx him.

I could see Gritty as our second round pick next week.

He just moved into the lottery with an outside shot of moving into the top 3 if he makes another nice play. Hopefully he doesn't so we still have a chance at him.

BA: "Parra had great success in his start today."

Sorry I can't be too optimistic with 114 pitches in 6 innings and 4 walks in a AAA game.

BA and Rock are idiots. What else did you expect him to say?

I didn't like McClung for a third inning after how much he struggled in the 8th. Either begin the inning with Hoffman or start it with a fresh arm like Stetter or DeFiliece

Even worse was not going with Stetter to face Martinez and then Choo. If he doesn't get them out, then you can go with Hoffman to face Garko. I guess Stetter isn't the "closer" though.

Hopefully Wood gets pulled

Glad to see somebody got this.

[Kerb Hohl]

One more thing, and I'll stop ranting on this topic.

Last year, after 20 games, Jason Kendall was playing good defense with an .883 OPS (he had over a .1000 OPS after 15). He was batting .345.

By the end of the year, he hit .246 with a .651 OPS.

I'm not saying Gwynn isn't better than he showed us in his first few glimpses here. But seriously, calm down, guys. It's been 22 games for Gwynn. He'll be back to hitting .250 with no power in a few weeks. He isn't even that good of a base-stealer.

What will Gerut be batting by then? Look into that crystal ball of yours. I'm fascinated.

I wasn't suggesting that Gwynn will make that serious of a drop-off, I was suggesting people are overreacting to 22 games of decent hitting.

Jody Gerut has hit .265 over his career. He is obviously a shell of his former self but he has 52 HR. He can steal a few bases. He has actually done something in the majors. Thus far, Tony Gwynn has not.

[ReasonablySober]

Nobody is overreacting to anything. Nobody is saying he's going to be anything in the future. I even said he had no future here and that I was more or less indifferent to the deal.

But what's happening is that you're being defensive over the simple observation that Gwynn as of now has performed well for San Diego. That's simply it.

[trwi7]

Tony Gwynn, who I always liked, has been playing very well since being traded.

I still cannot believe we got rid of him for pretty much nothing, especially when this team lacks any sort of a real lead off hitter... Even when Weeks is healthy I don't really view him as a lead off guy.

Just another reason I am not a Doug Melvin fan.

Yeah, when his BABIP comes down from the .414 it's at now and he becomes the player he was with us will you be saying the same thing?

You honestly think Melvin would've traded him for Gerut if he could've gotten something better? The fact that the best offer he got was Gerut should say what you need to know.

No power, no on base decent defensive CF's don't have much value.

I want to start a Greg Aquino fan club... now that he doesn't play for us.

Classic. Too bad he's in the AL.

Some of of you guys are absolutely fanatical in your slamming of Gwynn.

Who's slamming him? He's not this good. He's on a hot streak, he still has no power and while he has a pretty good eye at the plate, he strikes out too much for a guy with his skill set to hit for a consistently high average to have the OBP to make up for his lack of power.

[ReasonablySober]

Nobody is saying he'll maintain his average. Again, all that was pointed out is his performance thus far. LP said he always liked him, I said I wouldn't have traded him for Gerut. Nobody has said, "I TOLD YOU HE'D BE AWESOME!!!11!".

[Kerb Hohl]

I know you're not one of those guys that hated the trade, DB, as you said before, but obviously Gerut isn't starting.

So what do you want out of the Gwynn/Gerut spot on the roster?
Pinch runner? Gerut might be a slight step down.
Power bat off the bench? Gerut.
Pinch hit average? When both guys regress or improve to their average, both are going to hit .265, .270.

I don't really know how good of an outfielder Gerut is and I know Gwynn is solid but we will barely use either of them for that and I can't imagine Gerut would be a whole lot worse.

[trwi7]

Gerut is a better defender than Gwynn. Although I wouldn't mind Gwynn over Catalanotto, especially if Catalanotto is playing in the field.

[Kerb Hohl]

OK, so to recap:

Power: Gerut by a mile
Speed: Gwynn
Fielding: Gerut
Average: Probably Gerut when it all evens out.

What is it that don't people like about this trade?

[ReasonablySober]

What is it that don't people like about this trade?

You mean besides the results thus far?

It would be one thing if Gerut was in the team's long term plans, but he's not. Neither was Gwynn. So all that really matters is who does what from now until the end of the season.

[Kerb Hohl]

What is it that don't people like about this trade?

You mean besides the results thus far?

It would be one thing if Gerut was in the team's long term plans, but he's not. Neither was Gwynn. So all that really matters is who does what from now until the end of the season.

Yeah, I can imagine Gwynn would have blown us away in 22 at bats that Gerut has gotten. Maybe Gerut isn't cut out for pinch hitting, but in a 22 at bat sample size for Gerut, we can safely say in a few hundred for Gwynn in previous years that pinch-hitting and spot starting wasn't his forte either.

[ReasonablySober]

Yeah, I can imagine Gwynn would have blown us away in 22 at bats that Gerut has gotten.

I can imagine him getting three hits.

Maybe Gerut isn't cut out for pinch hitting

That's sort of a problem, seeing as that's all he'll ever be here.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, I can imagine Gwynn would have blown us away in 22 at bats that Gerut has gotten.

I can imagine him getting three hits.

It's been 22 at bats DB. I'm not expecting him to set the world on fire the rest of the way but he is a much better sub than Tony Gwynn. We got the better end of the deal. Case closed. If Mike Cameron got hurt tomorrow I'd much rather have Gerut out there for a long period of time than Gwynn. I realize he struggled with the Pads in his full time role to start the year but he's proven that he can be a solid player at the very least in his career. He had just as good of a 15 game start as Gwynn has had with the Padres. It's all a crapshoot in short samples but you can look to career MLB numbers for a guy like Gerut and what you would project Gwynn to do coming out of the minors and his limited MLB experience and I'd take Gerut any day of the week.

Go ahead even and look at Gerut's minor league numbers. Way better than Gwynn's. I don't see a damn thing other than the slow start that points Gwynn to be a better player. If you think this slow start for Gerut is really a beacon of who would be a better player the rest of the year and probably next year, then the Rays are calling you with a Jason Bartlett for JJ Hardy and Mat Gamel trade. Take it. Bartlett was unreasonably hot to start the year and JJ and Gamel have struggled. I mean, Hardy will probably only be with us for another year, maybe two...so Bartlett might be hotter over that time because he had a great 30 game stretch. Pull the trigger.

Although, 22 at bats. That's way more at bats as Tony Gwynn has career extra base hits.


And I'll write off Gwynn to ever be a decent base stealer while I'm at it. Gerut is 2/3 with the Brewers and Gwynn is 2/5 with the Padres. We're in it for the here and now.

Maybe Gerut isn't cut out for pinch hitting

That's sort of a problem, seeing as that's all he'll ever be here.

And Gwynn was going to start? Gwynn is a worse pinch hitter/spot starter as I mentioned before.