Post-Lotto Mock (1-60)--Updated 6/23

[babyjax13]

One more thing DJ, Bol was 225 pounds and 7-7, Thabeet is 4 inches shorter and actually has a pretty good frame on him already (275 pounds). Here is a list of 7-3 (or close to 7-3) players in the NBA who recently have had some success (probably missed a few):

Jake Tsakalidis 7-3 290 pounds
Career Stats: 5p 4r .3a 1b
36-minutes adjusted 11p 9r 1a 2b
Not nearly as mobile as Thabeet, still had marginal success as a defender in the paint.

Primoz Brezec 7-2 252 pounds
Career Stats: 8p 4r 1a .4b
36-minute adjusted: 14p 8r 1a 1b
More of a spot up shooter--not fast or strong enough to be an extremely effective NBA center but was able to have some good years still (had a year where he averaged 13p 7r 1a 1b and a couple close to that).

Greg Ostertag 7-2 280 pounds
Career Stats: 5p 6r 1a 2b
36-minute adjusted: 9p 10r 2a 3b
Much slower than Thabeet, not mobile or coordinated but was an excellent defender.

Dikembe Mutumbo 7-2 245 pounds
Career Stats: 10p 10r 1a 3b
36-minute adjusted 12p 12r 1a 3b
College (for reference): 10p 9r 1a 4b
One of the best defending centers in NBA history--defensive anchor.

And here are the guys still playing:

Zydrunas Illguaskes 7-3 260 pounds
Career Stats: 14p 8r 1a 2b
Not so much of an anchor defensively, but still respectable. Not nearly as athletic as Thabeet by higher BB IQ.

Tyson Chandler 7-1 235 pounds
Career Stats: 8p 9r 1a 1b
Athletic, good motor, low Bball IQ. Not as tall or strong as Thabeet.

Shaquille O'neil 7-1 325 pounds
Career Stats: 25p 11r 3a 2b
A bit unfair to throw Shaq in this--he is bigger, stronger, more skilled and has a higher Bball IQ.

Brendan Haywood 7-0 263 pounds
Career Stats: 8p 6r 1a 1b
Great shot blocker, as strong as Thabeet but shorter.

Joel Pryzbilla 7-1 245 pounds
Career Stats: 4p 6r 1a 2b
Less mobile and shorter and not as strong as Thabeet.

And then the guy a lot of people compare him to--

Samuel Dalembert 6-11 250 pounds
Career Stats: 8p 8r .4a 2b
A lot shorter than Thabeet, low Bball IQ.

The difference between Thabeet and a lot of these guys is the fact that he still has time to develop his game and increase his Bball IQ. He hasn't been playing all that long and he is already a guy that will make a pretty big impact for a team in the NBA.

[babyjax13]

I did a pretty big update, I think that it looks much better now.

[Winter Wonder]

Question the MN pick at #18. Maynor is a very viable option, but with your Mock, would see Daye or Mullens being grabbed there (off chance at Teague). Mullens, if he develops, to help move Jefferson to the 4 a bit, and Daye to add length and outside shooting with the half court offense. At #28 can adress PG with Mills, Collison, even stashing Calathas, etc.

Just think the upside of the others out weighs what you get with Maynor there and that there are still plenty of PG's in the draft after that.

[babyjax13]

Question the MN pick at #18. Maynor is a very viable option, but with your Mock, would see Daye or Mullens being grabbed there (off chance at Teague). Mullens, if he develops, to help move Jefferson to the 4 a bit, and Daye to add length and outside shooting with the half court offense. At #28 can adress PG with Mills, Collison, even stashing Calathas, etc.

Just think the upside of the others out weighs what you get with Maynor there and that there are still plenty of PG's in the draft after that.

I think it all depends on how big of a risk your front office wants to take. Mullens is a "hit-or-miss" type prospect, and it seems like Mills has not been helping himself much in Workouts (especially as a score-first point guard). If Minnesota wants to wait a year for Calathes I can see Mullens, but as-is I think that Maynor is the best choice since he seems so much more NBA ready than the other point guards left in the draft at 18. As for Collison, I don't think he is going to be very good which is why I have him dropping into the second round.

[djthesonicsfan]

babyjax, because you want a big time defender in the middle isn't a good reason to draft a center with a seriously limited skill set just because he's the tallest guy in the draft. On the other hand Harden is really good basketball player who's demonstrated a complete skill set and all the intangibles coaches/GMs look for in a core player. It also so happens that SG is a position of need and that team had one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the league last year. IMO the #3 pick is one of the easiest to predict in the entire draft.

[babyjax13]

babyjax, because you want a big time defender in the middle isn't a good reason to draft a center with a seriously limited skill set just because he's the tallest guy in the draft. On the other hand Harden is really good basketball player who's demonstrated a complete skill set and all the intangibles coaches/GMs look for in a core player. It also so happens that SG is a position of need and that team had one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the league last year. IMO the #3 pick is one of the easiest to predict in the entire draft.

DJ, you and reading on a couple of the other boards convinced me about Harden, but I still think that Thabeet is going to come out and surprise you when he comes into the NBA.

[djthesonicsfan]

Team Needs:
Oklahoma City - A shot blocking center and a shooting guard are their biggest needs. I think that they can easily address these needs with where they pick.

Current Mock--James Harden, Wayne Ellington

babyjax I sincerely hope your pick is a good karma omen. I'm actually starting to be a little worried Memphis picks Harden. Anyway, since you asked, here's my two cents on the team's needs in order of importance.

- Time. The best guy on the team can't even legally buy a beer. Neither can the starting point guard. Presti's assembled a great core of talented athletes, but they're painfully young and they haven't learned how to win yet. Sometimes watching them trying to close out a game is like watching a group of lion cubs trying to kill a lizard. There's a lot of effort & drama but the results are rarely what you want. However, it's obvious they're learning and the results are going to be dramatically different in a couple of years when those cubs grow up.

- Durant. A totally special player... on offense. And he makes amazing plays on defense... once in a while. But usually not even close to average. Dude has to man up, hit the weights, get stronger, make the conscious decision to defend each time back and take it upon himself to lead by example. See James, LaBron. See Bryant, Kobe. See Wade, Dwayne. Those are the top three scorers in the league yet they also made the all-defensive team. Durant is completely aware of this assessment & he says he wants to be that guy. It'll be interesting to see if he gets there.

- A shooting guard that can shoot. A big reason the team ranked among the least efficient on offense last year is because neither Mason, Sefolosha nor Weaver can shoot. Especially from three, although Weaver showed some promise. There's a reason that position is called shooting guard. As much as Sefolosha makes a difference on defense, it was just painful watching him pass up shots or clang another brick. Harden fixes this in a big way. Not to mention the bonus playmaking skills he brings. I think Westbrook is great & getting better, but there's no confusing him for Chris Paul or Steve Nash.

- Luck. They've got two young bigs (DJ White & Serge Ibaka) who have the all the potential and then some to become really good. But potential is like a blind date. Hardly ever works out.

- A difference making center. Nenad Krstic is a lot better than he's given credit for, but he's not an elite center. Nor is he ever likely to be one. But he's not what's holding the team back. See the items above. He's 7 feet, he's tough & he can shoot. He's already demonstrated that he can be the center on a contending team during his time with the Nets. Unfortunately difference making centers don't grow on trees. Hopefully Presti finds a way to get one.

- 3rd point guard. Earl Watson & Chucky Atkins are gone. Who knows if Livingston makes it all the way back. Hope so. I think the team is counting on it. Maybe Weaver can play a little point guard in a pinch. But it's great to have three. That's why I like one of the super quicks at #25... Rodrigue Beaubois, Patty Mills or Darren Collison.

[babyjax13]

DJ, that was an excellent post, thank you very much. I really like the Thunder (I have relatives in Oklahoma so their college hoops teams are the ones I root for--until OSU plays OU, Sooners all the way!) but there is not much of a chance to watch them in Salt Lake unless you have cable (I don't I went to my friend's house to watch the draft combine).

Nenad has always been a good player, and he has a couple of good playoff runs but he is not a difference maker defensively. If OKC makes a move for a shot-blocking center (even if it is a guy like Joel Pryzbilla) you will have a top 5 center rotation. I hope the Thunder are like the Blazers and can put all that potential to good use. Once Portland and OKC start to get the best they can out of their young guys it is going to be scary to see how good the North West Division is. I think Denver will be the odd team out once Billups goes down, then the Wolves, Jazz, Thunder and Blazers will all be in a dog fight for the top spot and to see which team's young guys will develop the best core.

Isn't Thabo more of a small forward at 6' 8"? Or is it just that he is too skinny to man up to most of the strong small forwards we are seeing these days?

I don't know if Harden will fix all of your shooting woes, but I agree that he will be a difference maker. This year we felt the pain of having Ronnie Brewer not being able to make a jumper to save his life in the playoffs--he went from being a 51% shooter to a 41% shooter. If we had a guy like Harden and a healthy Okur there is no way that the Laker's series ends in 5.

After I pegged Harden at three I was not sure what to do about the 25, I just kept Ellington there because he can be a 3-point threat off the bench and a good compliment to Sefelosha. I don't think Beaubois is going to be as good as people are saying, all I've seen of him are youtube videos--but normally that shows the best of what players can do. All I saw from Ricky was an athletic freak with no real fundamentals. At this point he looks like a draft and stash player--Sergio Llull and Tony Douglas IMO would be better pick ups (along with the obvious picks, Collison and Mills). Livingston is always going to be an injury risk after those ACL/MCL injuries so without Watson you are going to be in trouble if he goes down.

I also don't like Collison--he was good in college but he is short, does not have a great jumper, and his frame is going to get beat up during the course of an NBA season. I think the point guards in the bottom of the first round all have flaws and you have to pick your poison. Do you want a score-first guy, someone with all the "measurables" but none of the skills, or a short guard that might have a really hard transition to the NBA? If you can wait a year Nick Cathalas might be the best choice--you already have all the athletes you need and Cathalas can be a difference maker with his shooting and playmaking--especially if you can put Weaver/Harden on their point guard and Cathalas on the shooting guard.

babyjax I sincerely hope your pick is a good karma omen. I'm actually starting to be a little worried Memphis picks Harden. Anyway, since you asked, here's my two cents on the team's needs in order of importance.

I don't see how Harden fits with Mayo, they are really in the same exact mold--they look slow, but can score and make plays. Rubio or Thabeet just makes a ton of sense for them here. I put Rubio just because I can't envision not taking the consensus 2nd best player with the 2nd pick.

Edit: I also wanted to mention that Blair reminds me a lot of DJ White from last year. Too bad White didn't come till the end of the season for the Thunder. Also, Joana had a really nice post about Beaubois...

He's not a point guard. He was pretty bad when asked to play the position. He doesn't see the floor well, he doesn't look to distribute the ball and when he does he throws it to the wrong guys often or gets in the air with no idea what to do next. He's very good tools, but he needs a lot of development to contribute consistently at a higher level. He finished the season in great form, but it's too little.

De Colo is by far the better player as of now, but he can't play PG in the NBA (he isn't a natural one either anyway), he's too small to play the 2 and his overall lack of athleticism makes him a less interesting prospect from a NBA perspective.

Joana did say that he had a good jumper, so I will trust that, I have not seen him play really so what I think might be completely wrong, but I think Joana is a good source.

[djthesonicsfan]

You're welcome. Glad you liked it. And I hope you're right about that #2 pick.

Thabo plays both SG & SF for the notSonics. He's a legit perimeter defender. He always takes the best guy on the other team. Usually makes a difference. Personally, I like it best when he's out there as a SG because the lineup is really long, rebounds well and, most importantly, Durant is on the floor at SF.

To this day I'm still pissed that Rick Sund drafted Mo Sene instead of Ronnie Brewer. Seriously, Rick's statement regarding the pick... "At least he's tall. One of those three (Swift, Petro, Sene) should work out." Idiot. I remember watching Brewer's dad play. They both have the same excellent athleticism. But I hear you about Ronnie's shooting. The only guy I know with an uglier shot than Gary Payton's. You have to admit he makes up for it a little with those cuts to the rim along the baseline.

I think you're idea on Nick Cathalas at #25 isn't bad. I can see it. I read Joana's write up on Beaubois. I think it was overly negative, but I'd add Beaubois is a bit injury prone. Still, Presti was the guy who discovered Tony Parker, another athletic French point guard.

[Cammo101]

babyjax, because you want a big time defender in the middle isn't a good reason to draft a center with a seriously limited skill set just because he's the tallest guy in the draft. On the other hand Harden is really good basketball player who's demonstrated a complete skill set and all the intangibles coaches/GMs look for in a core player. It also so happens that SG is a position of need and that team had one of the worst offensive efficiency ratings in the league last year. IMO the #3 pick is one of the easiest to predict in the entire draft.

Thabeet is far from a limited skillset for a center. In fact, he has an above average one.

[djthesonicsfan]

Thabeet is far from a limited skillset for a center. In fact, he has an above average one.

Admit it... aren't you the guy who insisted, and kept insisting, and then insisted some more, that DeAndre Jordan was going #4 to the Sonics last summer?

[Cammo101]

Thabeet is far from a limited skillset for a center. In fact, he has an above average one.

Admit it... aren't you the guy who insisted, and kept insisting, and then insisted some more, that DeAndre Jordan was going #4 to the Sonics last summer?

Way early in the process I was. And guess what? OKC is still in dire need of a center who can defend. I have no problem with them taking Harden, but he will not help their porous defense any.

I am the guy who said I still liked Jordan as a prospect, even as people were jumping ship. And so far, I look right. I am also the guy that ultimately said OKC should have taken Brook Lopez last year, and guess what? They should have.

I have no problem with Harden or Westbrook, but Presti might be forgetting that San Antonio was playing great defense when they were winning titles. Not trying to outscore everyone.

[Joana]

In the FA market, there's a perfect fit for the Thunder to cover the center position: Gortat.

Harden isn't a stellar defender, but he's a very good one. With Westbrook, Harden, Durant and Gortat they have the foundations of a contender and a strong defensive team. Sefolosha, Krstic and Collison are some high-end backups, with Sefolosha being a great perimeter defender and Krstic an extraordinary scoring big man to bring off-the-bench. DJ White and Weaver can easily become solid end of rotation players. All they need to do is to turn Jeff Green, some expirings and future picks into a PF and add a backup point-guard. Or just bring a free-agent PF, or draft him next off-season. Right now, Harden is a great fit for them and the BPA.

[Cammo101]

I think drafting Harden and signing Gortat would be a perfect offseason for OKC.

[babyjax13]

To this day I'm still pissed that Rick Sund drafted Mo Sene instead of Ronnie Brewer. Seriously, Rick's statement regarding the pick... "At least he's tall. One of those three (Swift, Petro, Sene) should work out." Idiot. I remember watching Brewer's dad play. They both have the same excellent athleticism. But I hear you about Ronnie's shooting. The only guy I know with an uglier shot than Gary Payton's. You have to admit he makes up for it a little with those cuts to the rim along the baseline.

I think you're idea on Nick Cathalas at #25 isn't bad. I can see it. I read Joana's write up on Beaubois. I think it was overly negative, but I'd add Beaubois is a bit injury prone. Still, Presti was the guy who discovered Tony Parker, another athletic French point guard.

With a shooting big man Ronnie is not so much of a liability because he has room to move on the inside. I agree that he is a great slasher, but if he had even a semblance of form on that jump-shot he could easily be a top 10 shooting guard. I guess this is why you don't fall off slides when you are little.

The year Parker came in there were several other good foreign prospects. I am not sure Presti would have made the same choice had Raul Lopez still been on the board (Lopez was one of my favorite players till the injury).

[djthesonicsfan]

Ya, Gortat's tough. I think he's going to get paid this summer. Too bad for the Magic. But I'm conflicted on making him an offer, however. Luck is when opportunity meets preparation. Presti's prepared to be lucky when the next Pau Gasol happens along (eg Okafor, Bogut, etc). Besides that young team has so many things to work on that going from Krstic to Gortat would make little if any difference.

I say the perfect summer for Presti is drafting Harden and then keeping his powder dry until the economy forces some over extended owner to cough up a elite center for expirings, picks and/or cap space.

[djthesonicsfan]

babyjax, very good karma indeed. Not only did we get James Harden, Byron Mullens fell to us as well. What a gift. Perfect. Thanks.