Love/2 = trade exception or buckner

[younggunsmn]

Until July 1 we are still operating on 2008/09 salaries and cap numbers. (all #'s from storytellers site)

Salary cap - 58,680,000
Luxury tax - 71,150,000 (lux tax is calculated at end of regular season, so we can add salary now and not have it affect our 2008/9 luxury tax status).
Washington currently has a little over 76 million committed in 2009 salary (before the draft pick)

If we do a direct Love/#2 deal with memphis before july 1 we can create a trade exception of 3.163 million to use in obtaining another pick. We are over the cap, but Memphis is currently 4.93 million under the cap. So we could theoretically create a trade exception of up to 4.93 million to take on a player from another team (washington).

Also greg buckner has a contract paying him 4.08 and 4.28 million for the next 2 years, but only guaranteeing him 1.06 million for each year. His '08/09 cap number is 4.01 million. He could be traded for an equivalent player and save said team 6.24 million over 2 years. Using him in a 3-way trade with washington (or a straight up swap for d. stevenson or d. songalia) would be a pretty enticing piece to dangle.

Interestingly, Kevin Love for Buckner/2 works straight up. It saves the griz a small amount on the cap the next 2 years. And we have a very, very tradeable asset. Gomes's similiar deal has a "fully guaranteed if not waived by x date, but It had no such date for buckner, so perhaps we could waive him at any time and reap the savings.

Theoretically, after pulling off love/buckner we could trade smith (2.5) and madsen (2.63) for the #2 pick (splitting up the deal for trade purposes) and then garner a 5.13 million trade exception (and if needed send them 3 mil cash to roughly cover the difference between what was owed buckner and smith/madsen). Because we created an extra 800k in the first deal, putting memphis 5.7 mil below the cap, we can trade smith and madsen directly for cap space.

Then we would have incredible savings to offer washington for the 5th pick.
We could send: (2009 guaranteed #'s)
Miller (9.88)
Buckner (1.06)
11.94
for
Thomas (7.35)
James (6.47)
13.82

and
Stevenson (3.89) , #5
for
#28, trade exception.

Total 2009 savings: 5.77 million, 2010 savings 4.15 milllion (stevenson)
Songalia (4.53, 4.82) would add more savings.
This should get them very close to being below luxury tax threshold.

Wolves perspective: (2009 #'s)
miller (9.88)
love (3.41)
smith (2.30)
madsen (2.84)
18.43

For:
Thomas (7.35) (has trade kicker, 20% would be 1.47 mil)
James (6.47)
Stevenson (3.89, 4.15)
#2 (4.46) (120% scale)
#5 (3.27)
25.44 + Thomas trade kicker

So for 8.5 mil '09 salary, 4.15 '10 caproom, love, miller and expirings we would land #2 and #5.
Washington sheds 9.04 mil in '09 salary (including the pick) and 3.09 in 2010 salary,
and memphis gets love, takes on 2 mil in '09 salary (with picks included) while clearing 1.06 mil in 2010 room.

One caveat is that Thomas has an Early Termination Option, which he has until 6-30 to excercise. I think because of this any deal involving him will have to be agreed upon and then executed post 7-1. James has a player option, but he could be persuaded excercise it pre-draft if we had negotiated a buyout/agreed to waive him.

Also, to put to rest the rumor K-Love can't be traded again to the griz for 1 year, that only applies to NBA CALENDAR YEARS, which being 7-1 and end 6-30. He was traded technically on the '07-08 calendar year (6-28-08) and everyone involved in said trade is free to be re-traded. (per coon faq).

[Ojmayo]

Round 76?

Love trade isn't happening.

[younggunsmn]

This would also leave us with foye and the expirings of thomas and cardinal to deal.

[younggunsmn]

Round 76?

Love trade isn't happening.

neither was the mayo trade.
prepare yourself for disappointment.

[the_bruce]

Impressive. I'd actually do this deal and I'm not a huge love for #2 fan.

[GopherIt!]

Great insight Shrink...errr Youngunsmn.

[shrink]

You know how it gets me hot when you talk capology!

This is an excellent piece of work. I'm no fan of adding 2010 salary, but I think we'd have to do it for a deal like this. #2, #5, #6 would be too nice for our future.

You're 100% right on Etan needing to OK the deal, but there is a good chance that he would with that trade kicker, his dislike for Haywood, one coach, and up-coming young bigs chipping further at his minutes. Also I appreciated that you included the info on re-trade, which is also correct. Buckner et al were available to be traded back right away.

The only thing I might add is that I personally don't think the #5 has the trade value to get the Wizards $18 mil and Mike Miller and move Stevenson's extra year, but structured like this it's still comfortable. Perhaps they need to kick out a prospect instead.

You might want to simplify this deal into a more concise, traditional form and give it a run on the Trade Board, and see what neutral posters have to say.

Very impressive work, younggunsmn.

[Biff Cooper]

Very interesting idea. Don't think we'll be able to get both Thabeet and Rubio with the 2, 5, 6. I would say 2=Rubio, 5=Harden (possibly Evans/Curry). Don't know if we would want to take another guard with 6. Six would probably be a trade down situation for Earl Clark, Jordan Hill, Austin Daye, Mullens, etc.

[younggunsmn]

Thanks shrink, that's high praise coming from you.
The one caveat is re-trading buckner in a multi-player deal. Don't we have like 24 hours after the trade to re-deal him before we have to wait 2 months?


I've heard that the wizards owner has a net worth of only 180 milllion, so paying 8.5 million + in luxury tax if he keeps the pick is something I don't think he wants.

I think It would take a guy like miller and minimum 4 million in cap savings to move the pick w/out a fan revolt.

It's all about who is available at 5 and 6.
I have a funny feeling OKC is passing on thabeet at 3, and here's why:
BJ Mullens has a promise at 15, but I don't see DET taking him.
I think det will send 15+ salary dump to OKC for 25+ room to sign boozer AND gordon.
Then OKC takes Mullens.
This was rumored weeks ago, but has kinda gotten buried.

If we take rubio, then 5 and 6 must be SG/SF or SG/C.

I want Evans at one of those picks (as a SG), and thabeet at the other.
But if thabeet is not availabe, do we take clark there or trade down and still get him?

I like Austin Daye alot at 18 after watching video of him because of his smooth shot, I think he's going to be a great long distance bomber right out of the gate.

If we could do all this and land Rubio, Evans, Daye, and Thabeet to put around jefferson,
it would erase a decade of draft ineptitude in one afternoon.

[shrink]

The one caveat is re-trading buckner in a multi-player deal. Don't we have like 24 hours after the trade to re-deal him before we have to wait 2 months?

The timing parts bore me, but I believe that if you can line it up so that the player is traded seperately, its not a problem. Also, if these trades are simultaneous, I think it again is no problem.

Don't quote me though - you'll want to double-check that.

[younggunsmn]

The one caveat is re-trading buckner in a multi-player deal. Don't we have like 24 hours after the trade to re-deal him before we have to wait 2 months?

The timing parts bore me, but I believe that if you can line it up so that the player is traded seperately, its not a problem. Also, if these trades are simultaneous, I think it again is no problem.

Don't quote me though - you'll want to double-check that.

I think I fixed the issue in my trade board post by making it a 3-way.
Otherwise I can't line up buckner to the wiz separately without expanding the trade.

[skorff26]

I love the idea, that's what I've been hoping will happen as well.

The draft will go #1 Griffin #2 Rubio #3 Thabeet/Harden #4 PG Sacramento #5 Thabeet/Harden #6 our pick

We could draft #2 Rubio, #5 Thabeet #6 Evans, Holliday, Curry, Holliday, or DeRozan
or
#2 Rubio, #5 Harden, #6 Hill

I would like then to trade Foye to Toronto for #9 and expirings and use #9 on DeRozan or someone else (maybe Henderson but that's my personal opinion since I really like Henderson)

[casey]

^Why is it that everybody wants to stockpile draft picks in this (weak) draft? I don't wanna see more than 2 or maybe 3 rookies total on this team.

[Mcfale313]

Love retires as a t-wolves unless somebody offer one of Kobe or Lebron for him in the next few years

[younggunsmn]

^Why is it that everybody wants to stockpile draft picks in this (weak) draft? I don't wanna see more than 2 or maybe 3 rookies total on this team.

3 top 6 picks in a talent pool maybe only 9-10 deep in impact players.

i like to think of it as maximizing assets.
Rubio=Love, but is a better fit at a premium position.
Miller+09 cap room we have no intention of using<whomever we pick at #5.
As far as I'm concerned they can trade the whole team minus al jefferson.
Rookies, especially talented rookies, attract fan interest.
Another season of miller, love, and jefferson giving up 105+ per game will not.

I know alot of you look at k-love through wolves-colored glasses, but realistically
I think his trade value is peaking right now, and a scenario has unfolded with a team with the PERFECT FIT and PERFECT ASSET to offer (rubio).

If he and Al can't coexist defensively, now is the time to cut bait.
With Al dominating possessions next year love's stats are not going to go up, and teams will have another year to scout his weaknesses, and another year will drop off his rookie contract.

[miltk]

Until July 1 we are still operating on 2008/09 salaries and cap numbers. (all #'s from storytellers site)

Salary cap - 58,680,000
Luxury tax - 71,150,000 ,,,,,,,,, 2008/9 luxury tax status).
,,,,,,,,,,,, 76 million committed in 2009 salary (before the draft pick),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3.163 million,,,,,,,,, Memphis is currently 4.93 million under the cap. ,,,,,,,,,,4.93 million ,,,,,,,,,4.08 and 4.28 million for the next 2 years....1.06 million for each year. ... cap number is 4.01 million. ....save said team 6.24 million over 2 years. smith (2.5) and madsen (2.63) ...5.13 million ... memphis 5.7 mil...cap space.
Miller (9.88)Buckner (1.06)11.94for Thomas (7.35)James(6.47)13.82and Stevenson (3.89) , #5for#28, trade exception. Total 2009 savings: 5.77 million, 2010 savings 4.15 milllion (4.53, 4.82)miller (9.88)love (3.41)smith (2.30)madsen (2.84)18.4Thomas (7.35) (has trade kicker, 20% would be 1.47 mil)James (6.47)Stevenson (3.89, 4.15)#2 (4.46) (120% scale)#5 (3.27)25.44 + Thomas trade kicker. So for 8.5 mil '09 salary, 4.15 '10 caproom,.. 9.04 mil in '09 .3.09 in 2010 salary 2 mil in '09 salary (with picks included) while clearing 1.06

WOW! Are you an accountant, cuz I need one.
However, I wouldn't want you as my financial planner because I wouldn't trust you picking stocks the way you have faith in this year's draft.

[Steve_Holiday]

I know alot of you look at k-love through wolves-colored glasses, but realistically
I think his trade value is peaking right now, and a scenario has unfolded with a team with the PERFECT FIT and PERFECT ASSET to offer (rubio).

I hear where you are coming from, but I don't agree with this entirely.

I think Love will get considerable playing time next season, despite Al being in the lineup. Last time I checked, we have no center. If he gets one less shot stuffed and makes an extra jumper per game, we could see considerable improvement stat-wise. I don't think 15-10 is unreasonable at all for Kevin next season.

Two points to think about:
1. Al's knee injury: Love is about the best insurance plan you could get.
2. Rubio plays European basketball...the same league where Igor Rakocevik is called the "white michael jordan." Love for Rubio is not a risk-free move.

I agree that one of our power forwards will need to be moved, but I don't see huge harm in waiting at least another season to do it. I do see tremendous risk in making a hasty trade now.

[shrink]

One of the things I like about this board is that people bring good opinions, even when they are contradictory.

Casey and Steve Holiday are right about this year. The draft is weaker than in the past, and there's no guarantee Rubio won't fail. However, I think I agree with younggunsmn that I'd be willing to trade nearly everyone except Al for these picks.

I think the NBA is a superstar league, and our team is filled with average-to-good players. Even in a weak draft, lottery picks have the potential to becomes superstars. Sure its true that Rubio could bust, but he has a lot of skills that may point to stardom. Kevin Love is a really good player, and I agree with Kahn that his ceiling is just below All Star. That's a great complimentary player, but we need to find some true stars. We're trading Love's guaranteed ability to play in the NBA for Rubio's risk in that regard, but higher upside.

Anyway, I think both sides make good points on this. Personally, if I had my druthers, I'd go for #2, #5, #6.

[Steve_Holiday]

Agreed on just about all points Shrink. I just think that any deal involving Love has to be weighed considerably, and would prefer one similar to the Love/6 - Gay/2 that reduces risk by including an established player. Unless the team is blown out of the water by an offer this year, I think it would be wise to wait. The option of trading Kevin Love for a high draft pick will certainly be around next year. I think the Wolves should be able to pick up an extra lotto pick in two days without using him in a deal.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I disagree, Kevin Love WILL be an allstar in the NBA, you can take that to the bank. They'll look at you confused when you try to deposit a verbal prediction, but it's still feasibly something you can do.