The What Should We Do With the 5th Pick II: IBJ Edition

[closg00]

Nobody wants to play in Memphis.

[barelyawake]

FYI, here's the top three next year. Someone tell me they want Curry over these guys. I get the risk part. I get the "I'm sick of waiting" part. I'll give ya both of those, if you give me that any of those three guys added to our roster would win us a championship.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4psLTfvZEs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xO4hLIP6-ic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNlTbP3Npto

(Double checks to see if I didn't accidently slip in an Eddie Hazel -- Funkadelic -- clip)

[Benjammin]

I'm thinking its:

1. Griff to Clips
2. Rubio for Portland or Minny
3. Thabeet to Thunder
4. Tyreke
5. Memphis takes Harden (Wiz landed Minneapolis' next year's pick unprotected in a Mike Miller swap) --OR-- Wiz take Curry
6. Memphis takes Jordan Hill --OR-- Minny takes Harden
7. Curry to GSW --OR-- James Johnson if Curry is gone.
8. Jonny Flynn to NYC --OR-- Jordan HIl if he's still on the board
...
18. Wiz stash Nick Calathes in Europe. (Consider Sam Young, Omri Casspi or Chase Buddinger, decide to save $ instead).
32. Depends on roster space after the Minny trade. Best Player if we've got room, otherwise Draft & Stash or sell to Portland for cash.

The point is moot because Minnesota has already traded their 2010 1st round pick to the Clips--• Los Angeles Clippers receive Minnesota's first round pick (top-10 protected through 2011, unprotected 2012) as part of the Sam Cassell/Marko Jaric trade.http://www.draftexpress.com/transactions.php

Moreover, Wolves fans are under the delusional thinking that they can get the 5th pick for Miller and some salary relief. They would probably cry about trading the 18th pick as well much less if they had a potential top 3 pick in 2010 to give up.

[Ruzious]

I'm thinking its:

1. Griff to Clips
2. Rubio for Portland or Minny
3. Thabeet to Thunder
4. Tyreke
5. Memphis takes Harden (Wiz landed Minneapolis' next year's pick unprotected in a Mike Miller swap) --OR-- Wiz take Curry
6. Memphis takes Jordan Hill --OR-- Minny takes Harden
7. Curry to GSW --OR-- James Johnson if Curry is gone.
8. Jonny Flynn to NYC --OR-- Jordan HIl if he's still on the board
...
18. Wiz stash Nick Calathes in Europe. (Consider Sam Young, Omri Casspi or Chase Buddinger, decide to save $ instead).
32. Depends on roster space after the Minny trade. Best Player if we've got room, otherwise Draft & Stash or sell to Portland for cash.

The point is moot because Minnesota has already traded their 2010 1st round pick to the Clips--• Los Angeles Clippers receive Minnesota's first round pick (top-10 protected through 2011, unprotected 2012) as part of the Sam Cassell/Marko Jaric trade.http://www.draftexpress.com/transactions.php

I guess that prohibits them from trading the 2010 pick if it's 1 through 10 - because of the rule that you can't trade consecutive year picks - seeing as their 2011 pick could end up going to the Clipees.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Saw the wiretap that said we're interested in trading with the Knicks to land "Hughes or Jeffries" and choked on my own vomit a little bit.

Hughes? maybe.
Jeffires? puuuuh-lease

[Severn Hoos]

Well, 3 days to go and I'm at about the same place doc was in his post a few pages back: If we keep the pick, we'll be getting a very good player at #5, and I'm much more concerned about the risks associated with trading the pick vs. keeping it. (Though I presume Ernie's personal risk assessment is far different from mine, since his job is on the line.) We may be fortunate in that there just doesn't seem to be any deal out there that would bring enough value to make it worthwhile, even for Ernie to pull the trigger. He may be "stuck" with the pick.

So, using Mike Lee's formulation of the 7 top prospects who came in for workouts, who would be the best for the Wiz? It's likely one of the seven will be gone before the Wiz pick, maybe two - in which case, someone unexpected may fall (Rubio, Thabeet). In that case, I expect the trade offers to increase significantly in quality and quantity, and hopefully EG pulls off some magic.

But back to the Magnificent Seven, here's my take on each, in reverse order. I'd actually be happy with most of them - and could convince myself to get behind just about any of them.

7. Brandon Jennings - this is probably the only pure disappointment scenario, outside of a trade completely out of the 1st round for a Redd/Carter/etc. He seems to me to have the triple negative: Can't play with Gil for extended stretches, is still very much a project, and has maturity issues (the whole going to Europe thing, his pre-draft comments about other players, his behavior at that Wolves workout, if the blogger is to be believed). He may just have the highest ceiling of any of the 7, but this would be a disaster.

6. Jordan Hill - Only makes sense as a replacement for Blatche or drafting for another team. How many "developing" bigs can we have on one roster? Where would his minutes come from? And does he really bring that much more than what's already on the roster? If he had a true low-post scoring game, I could maybe see it. But this one would really confuse me, and would not be the kind of value they need to get from #5. [At least on their roster - another team might find him a good value at the pick, or he might be useful if we have other trades (Blatche) lined up. But based on the current roster, a potentially wasted pick.]

5. Jonny Flynn - I loved what he showed in the 6-OT game. Heart, quickness, played big in the clutch. But again - how much time would he see next to Gil? Because if Gil is healthy, we're looking at maybe 12-15 minutes (if that) behind him. I just worry that drafting a pure PG will end up with us sponsoring his apprenticeship before he moves on to another team. Again, value for the pick...

4. DeMar DeRozan - I actually think Flynn is a better prospect, but DeRozan is potentially a better fit. Size and defensive potential would really help the current roster. Really needs to improve his 3-point shooting. This is the first one I could say "Yeah, we've got a long-term piece here" even if it is more based on optimistic projections than hard stats or scouting reports.

3. Stephen Curry - to be honest, my Top 3 are almost interchangeable. I believe Curry has a better chance to play alongside Gil, so I'd see him as providing true value for the pick - even if he starts his career on the bench. The Wiz would be absolutely one of the highest-octane offenses in the League. Still worry about the defense with Curry & Gil - they'd need every one of Flip's defense/zone/tricks. Curry also gives the best chance to be a "Gil Replacement," if that necessity really does arise. His outside shooting would be an outstanding addition to the team, we desperately need someone who can make defenses pay.

2. Tyreke Evans - He's definitely grown on me through the workout process. Has the size to play a legitimate SG next to Gil. And a good enough distributor to keep defenses guessing between him, Arenas, and Butler. Shows definite promise defensively, too. I don't care for the Larry Hughes comparison, because Hughes was about 185 lbs, whereas Evans is 221. Huge difference in guarding SGs, which Tyreke would have to do. So what's holding me back from putting him #1? Honestly, I'm not sure I can put my finger on it. That shot sure is ugly - will it cause problems down the road? Is it the idea of another "project"? I think Evans is further advanced than some, but still may be a few years away from really contributing. Still, I'd be pleased with Evans as the pick - may be the best combination of ready to contribute now & long-term potential available.

1. James Harden - I can hardly believe I'm typing this. Back in Feb, I was with Dat as charter members of the Just Say No to Harden club. My concerns were based somewhat on statistics - his incredible stats were built up in non-conference play, and took a bit of a hit in Conf. play. In fact, the last guy I saw with such a big discrepancy was our very own Jarvis Hayes - which should be a red flag in itself. His seemingly passive style and questions about his athleticism appeared to confirm what the statistical analysis was pointing to. And all of this was before the disappointing NCAA tournament performance.

But then I stepped back and asked, "What does this team really need?" I think a starting-caliber SG with size to defend the position and be able to get teammates involved is the biggest need. And to find one who's ready to contribute right away would be a huge benefit. Then the measurements came out, and Harden looks more like a real NBA player. And watching his workout video with the Wiz - so smooth, and some seriously long arms. Get him a trainer, and some defensive coaching - and he could be just what the Doctor ordered. Ready to go on Day 1, but also potential to refine his game (and his body). And since we're looking for a 4th option, his "passive" style won't be an issue - could be even easier for him to fit in than for others.

It may be moot anyway, since Harden looks like he's slotted in at #3, and Evans may be making a push for #4. Still, that opens some definite possibilities - trades for whoever falls - or just take Curry and call it a day. In any event, I'm getting anxious for Thursday. Hopefully, we'll have a big piece to the puzzle when the night is through.

[doclinkin]

Maybe there's some detailed trade scenario where the pick moved between Memphis & Minnesota (part of the trade-up for #2, perhaps?) Or is it just the same thing I always do, mixing up the M & M teams?

Minny wants Rubio, they're trying to land a second top 10 pick to package and trade up. Hmmn, since Minny has no '10 pick tho' that neuters my desire for it. I don't see what they have that we'd want more than what's available at #5. I was thinking: salary relief this year, plus an upgrade at a need position (with a player that Flip likes) plus a high pick in a deep draft next year plus an upgrade would work for the Wiz.

Other thing wrong with my scenario, I get the feeling Portland will be super aggressive going after first Rubio then Curry. No way Curry would slip as late as #7. I have to believe they will get in the mix somehow if at all possible. And they've got a quality surplus Big at Center. One probably vying with Brendan Haywood for most underrated Center in the league, the other a potential franchise 5 if he can stay healthy. Plus surplus back-up guards as filler. They're deep enough in pieces & picks to make any move they want.

As for the Wiz. I can believe the Hughes rumors, but Jeffries? We have the better/younger/cheaper version in DMac. Got to be reckless speculation by the paid equivalent of a Knicksboard RealGMer.

[Ruzious]

Saw the wiretap that said we're interested in trading with the Knicks to land "Hughes or Jeffries" and choked on my own vomit a little bit.

Hughes? maybe.
Jeffires? puuuuh-lease

Chain reaction vomiting here as well. It sounds like some Knick fan blogger who's saying he has inside sources in the Wiz organization... Like you say - I could believe Hughes (considering he'll have an expiring contract), but Jeffries? Nosir.

[WizarDynasty]

Three major priorities for the team--we need one player with all attributes combined. You don't solve solution by acquiring two players and magically pretending that they are one player. Your starter is the most complete player and almost never needs to double team, and hopefully the other team needs to double him on offense. Ranked in priority
1. One big that has all of these attributes-High Motor, high field goal percentage, above average defensive rebounder, can block shots, can shoot from perimeter to open lane for Gil, is effective defending the pick and role. Explosive first step is a premium-, doesn't have an ego problem. All attributes need to be there.
2. Perimeter defense- A player that can guard big s/f's and has enough agility and standing reach to effectively contest a 6'8 players three point shot but has quick enough feet to guard on perimeter players such as point guards without being callled for a blocking foul, can knock down open three point shots, and can punish another team for using an undersized s/f by posting him up. Explosive First Step is a premium. All attributes need to be there otherwise he isn't worth a lottery pick.
3. A shooting guard who has the footspeed and strength to defend pg's, strong enough to defend s/f's, and has the ball handling ability to advance the ball against pressure, should be able to knock down an open three point shot. Explosive step is a must for a scoring guard.

[MJG]

I feel like I'm pretty much settled on what I personally will and won't be happy with.

[A]
Trade only 5th+contracts for Bosh/Amare

[B]
Trade 5th+assets (Jamison, Blatche, Young, etc) for Bosh/Amare
Trade 5th for non-overpaid younger SG (Fernandez, any others?)
Swap 5th for another top ten pick and talent upgrade (note: Wilson Chandler is not an upgrade)
Draft one of the expected backcourt players (Curry, Evans, Harden, Rubio)

[C]
Swap 5th for another top ten pick and cap savings
Draft an unexpected backcourt player (Flynn, Holiday, etc)

[D]
Trade 5th for overpaid non-star SG (Hamilton, Redd, etc)
Draft a big (Hill, Thabeet)

[F]
Trade 5th+McGee for any package not involving a top-five player

I'm sure there are more situations that will pop up in the next few days, and many more that have been discussed that we don't know about, but that covers most of what I've heard of as to what we might be doing.

The only thing left for me to really sort out is the final order I'd like for us to draft one of what I call the "expected" backcourt players. I really haven't been able to separate them much up to this point, so that's something to do over the next few days.

[doclinkin]

Three major priorities for the team--we need one player with all attributes combined. You don't solve solution by acquiring two players and magically pretending that they are one player. Your starter is the most complete player and almost never needs to double team, and hopefully the other team needs to double him on offense. Ranked in priority
1. One big that has all of these attributes-High Motor, high field goal percentage, above average defensive rebounder, can block shots, can shoot from perimeter to open lane for Gil, is effective defending the pick and role. Explosive first step is a premium-, doesn't have an ego problem. All attributes need to be there.
2. Perimeter defense- A player that can guard big s/f's and has enough agility and standing reach to effectively contest a 6'8 players three point shot but has quick enough feet to guard on perimeter players such as point guards without being callled for a blocking foul, can knock down open three point shots, and can punish another team for using an undersized s/f by posting him up. Explosive First Step is a premium. All attributes need to be there otherwise he isn't worth a lottery pick.
3. A shooting guard who has the footspeed and strength to defend pg's, strong enough to defend s/f's, and has the ball handling ability to advance the ball against pressure, should be able to knock down an open three point shot. Explosive step is a must for a scoring guard.

Add a paragraph break between each of your numbered sections and this is the first post of yours that I have completely agreed with.

I'd add a 4th need for a quality back-up option at PG -- since right now we get killed whenever Gil can't do it. Then understand that some drafts are better than others for addressing team needs. This one is deeper in PG, that's all, so it may be worth it to steal that upgrade now, when it won't be available later.

The rest is just discussion whether we can do it all at once, or with a draft pick at all. Or do we simply pray for sudden maturity in our developing talent. If Blatche could play every night the way he's shown flashes, we'd have that #1 spot solved. Otherwise, we trade for Bosh, Brand.

If we can't do it all on Draft night we take the piece we can fix, then look to swap by trade deadline.

[Tyrone Messby]

I'm really hoping EG can pull off a trade for a legit star with an enticing Jamison/5th deal. But, EG will never trade away the team's captain. Realistically it'll be Etan Thomas/5th for a late-round draft pick and a player the likes of Brian Cardinal.

[keynote]

Chad Ford's latest "Free Insider" blog update has more on a POR/WAS deal centered around the #5/Etan Thomas in exchange for "young talent":

However, Sunday night, there was talk Pritchard has even grander plans. With point guard Ricky Rubio possibly slipping out of the top four, the Blazers are talking to the Wizards about acquiring the No. 5 pick. Pritchard has been on the hunt for a point guard, and Rubio would be a nice fit to round out the Blazers' collection of young, unselfish talents.

But trading for the No. 5 pick is far from a done deal, as the price would be high for the Blazers. The Wizards want any team interested in the No. 5 pick to take Etan Thomas off their hands -- a move that could eat into the Blazers' cap space this summer. The deal almost certainly would cost the Blazers some young talent, like Bayless, Travis Outlaw or Batum.

(It's "Free Insider," so I don't have to bother summarizing. )

I'm surprised Ford didn't mention Rudy in his list of Blazer young talent. Rudy's a much better fit for the Wizards than Travis Outlaw, no?

[MJG]

Some DraftExpress updates:

At this point, Kahn is holding firm on not putting Kevin Love on the table for the right to move up in the draft, and is instead trying to acquire another pick to entice Memphis to swap with them. As other media outlets have reported, they are targeting Washington’s #5 pick, but are only offering some combination of Randy Foye, Mike Miller and the #18 pick, which probably won’t get it done.

The Wizards have been bombarded with trade offers as of late, some of them more realistic than others, but it’s not a given that they will decide to trade the pick. If Rubio is on the board, all indications are that the Wizards would take him, and worst comes to worse, deal with the repercussions of him staying in Europe for another year or two until his buyout situation gets resolved. There aren’t many teams that are higher on Rubio’s upside than Washington.

[Dat2U]

Some DraftExpress updates:

If Rubio is on the board, all indications are that the Wizards would take him, and worst comes to worse, deal with the repercussions of him staying in Europe for another year or two until his buyout situation gets resolved. There aren’t many teams that are higher on Rubio’s upside than Washington.

That's what I had thought. EG loves upside and loves Rubio. EG probably has been looking at trade up possibilities to get Rubio so I doubt if he falls into their laps that they'll look to deal him unless they can get a guy like Amare out of the deal.

The Wizards would also probably have no problem waiting a year or so for Rubio to come over. In fact it probably would save them a bit of money this year.

[fishercob]

Chad Ford's latest "Free Insider" blog update has more on a POR/WAS deal centered around the #5/Etan Thomas in exchange for "young talent":

However, Sunday night, there was talk Pritchard has even grander plans. With point guard Ricky Rubio possibly slipping out of the top four, the Blazers are talking to the Wizards about acquiring the No. 5 pick. Pritchard has been on the hunt for a point guard, and Rubio would be a nice fit to round out the Blazers' collection of young, unselfish talents.

But trading for the No. 5 pick is far from a done deal, as the price would be high for the Blazers. The Wizards want any team interested in the No. 5 pick to take Etan Thomas off their hands -- a move that could eat into the Blazers' cap space this summer. The deal almost certainly would cost the Blazers some young talent, like Bayless, Travis Outlaw or Batum.

(It's "Free Insider," so I don't have to bother summarizing. )

I'm surprised Ford didn't mention Rudy in his list of Blazer young talent. Rudy's a much better fit for the Wizards than Travis Outlaw, no?

Rubio slipping would be great.

Trade him and Deshawn for Rudy and as many of Portland's five picks this year we can get. Draft and stash Calathes. Trade them for future picks, etc.

Deshawn would hurt Portland's cap room a lot less this summer than Etan.

[Dat2U]

Saw the wiretap that said we're interested in trading with the Knicks to land "Hughes or Jeffries" and choked on my own vomit a little bit.

Hughes? maybe.
Jeffires? puuuuh-lease

Chain reaction vomiting here as well. It sounds like some Knick fan blogger who's saying he has inside sources in the Wiz organization... Like you say - I could believe Hughes (considering he'll have an expiring contract), but Jeffries? Nosir.

If they want Hughes bad enough they can get him w/o including a pick. As for Jeffries, it makes no sense for them to bring him back. We'd be doing a huge favor for our rivals (relieving them of salary and giving them enough cap room for two max contracts in 2010) and making our cap situation even worse. McGuire can do anything Jeffries can do is already a better player IMO. I don't believe the rumors one bit. Sounds like a NY reporter going back and reading old notes from two years ago.

[doclinkin]

Nice footage from the SacKings PG workout.

Tyreke vs Curry vs Calathes vs Flynn vs Toney Douglas vs Paddy Mills. You can learn more about which players a team is interested in by what players don't show up in their highlights package. There's notably little of Tyreke in here despite reports saying he killed the workout.

[eltacoman]

1)Blake
2)Rubio - traded
3)Thabeet
4)Evens
5)Harden
6)Curry
7)Hill
8)Holiday
9)DeRozan
10)Jennings
11)Clark
12)Mullens MJ for BJ
13)Blair
14)Flynn

this how i think the lottery draft might go down

[Wizards2Lottery]

The Grizzlies are going to screw everything up by picking Rubio. Nobody wants to play for them so they might as well pick the best out of that bunch.

and I really hope the rumor about Jeffries and Hughes is total BS. A 19-63 season and we end up with these losers. I'm sorry for the torture that was last year (actually the last three years), we deserve better.