Putting some sense into Rubio's and Wolves' situation

[Sugarless]

Hi there. Let me start by saying that I hate starting a new thread on Rubio when the board is packed with them, but there seems to be a lot of non-sense and wild thinking all over the place and I thought I'd just try to calm down things a bit and share whatever input a Spanish basketball fan like me can have on this situation. Let me tell you it's about 11.30am here, I've slept barely 4-5 hours and draft night was too a non-stop carousel for hardcore NBA fans on the other side of the pond. But it's time to think twice about what we lived last night and put some perspective.

Now, first of all, forget about the weather, the lack of success and whatever cliches were repeated over and over last night. What every Timberwolves fan needs to know about Ricky Rubio and the chances of him signing this year, is that above any other factor, the guy wants to play, and wants a commitment from the team that he will have the minutes, even in the case he struggles on his first season. And even though it may seem prima donnish, he rightfully asks so, since he will have to pay a whole lot of money and basically play for free the first 2-3 seasons of his rookie contract. Assuming he finally pays his buyout to come and play next season, no other player has ever needed to do that. No other player has seen himself in such a tough situation with his club (DKV) while being so eager and decided to join the NBA right away.

So, after everything that went through last night, what could be the biggest obstacle here? Well, first of all I think there was plenty of shock last night for Rubio and his camp when he slipped past OKC and Sacramento. But that shock eventually goes away. What probably puzzled them more is Flynn's pick. It is my opinion that Kahn was committed to keeping Ricky from the moment he knew he could get him with the 5th pick, but he knew as well that Rubio could be not coming over till 1-2 years from now, so with the 6th pick he chose an insurance policy in case he had to wait for Rubio. But here's the problem: from the moment you're picking another high-profile PG right after you select Rubio, you're telling the guy that he's going to have to pay to play (and a boat load of money), but he's not even guaranteed to have the minutes and the team's reins. If you ask me, there lies maybe the lone (depends on how do you like the later picks), but also very important mistake by David Kahn last night.

Of course, there's nothignt set on stone yet, and I think just like all of us can see last night's draft from a different perspective the morning after the events, so do the Rubio's. They are going to talk to the Timberwolves, and David Kahn is going to have to convice them that this is the right place for Ricky to start a great career. He needs to show them that he's going to have the minutes, he's going to have a young core around him (another important factor for Rubio regarding the transition he's going to have to make with such a change in his life), but more important, something that no other team can offer even if some others seem a great fit for him: this team doesn't have a coach, and it doesn't have one because they wanted to know what their selections would be before hiring one. That is something that could make the difference in this affair. If the Timberwolves show Ricky that he's their guy, that they're going to put him in a position to run the team, and run it to his strenghts (and that would be in the T'wolves benefit as well, since he's so freaking good at making his team and teammates better), then they have a very good chance to see him pay that buyout and sign that contract this summer. Yet again, there's that little thing that will be on the back of some people's head, including in Rubio's camp: the Timberwolves, with the 6th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, selected Jonny Flynn.

So if Kahn really wants to see Ricky here next season, his best chance would be to trade Flynn for some help in another position.

Finally, if you're still into what at the end of the day use to be more or less important, but never determinant details, let's talk about the weather: Ricky knows from Sergio Rodríguez (from the Canary Islands, a tropical, all year round warm place), Rudy Fernández (from Majorca, a quite warm island during the winter that's very hot and humid on summer) and José Calderón (from Extremadura, an extremely hot region) that there's no problem for a Spanish NBA player to spend the NBA season in a city that enjoys such a cold weather during that half of the year. No matter how you look at it: that's secondary, even for the players' families.

What is not so secondary though, is money. Even if you are willing to play for free for the first 2-3 years. However, here's some positive thinking for some of you guys: if Ricky decides to stay a couple of years in Spain, till his contract with DKV Joventut ends, he won't have to pay the buyout and he will get all of his rookie contract for himself. But... that would keep him from signing his first big fat NBA contract two more years, so his window to make as much as he can out of his basketball life (just like any other professional athlete) will be considerably shorter.

So, at the end of the day, the buyout may seem like a big deal, and the winter in Minneapolis won't be too welcoming for a Spanish teen used to live by the sea in a warm Mediterranean city, but the main issue here is: how bad do the Timberwolves want him now, how committed are they to giving Ricky the chance to start and play heavy minutes from day one, and how do they show him and his family that commitment. Once again, some will like the idea and some will not, but trading Jonny Flynn might be the key.

[NO-KG-AI]

I get what you are saying and all, and trust me, Ricky will have the leg up if competition is close at all, they will basically give him the keys, but if he's thoroughly outplayed by Telfair and Flynn, then he isn't going to get the minutes.

That said, he could easily get 26-30 minutes, even with Flynn playing over 25-28.

If Ricky wants to come play, the Wolves are going to play him, that's how I see it anyway, and he'll get quite a few endorsements.

Look, the Wolves have to do this, they already look like the bailed on Mayo because they were afraid he would leave, are small market teams gonna pass on big name players in the draft forever now because they might cry some? Rubio will play, Minnesota will play him, what they do with Flynn is the real question.

[Tirion]

Wolves have only 5 guards on their roster.
Playing time will be PLENTY.

[Tirion]

Plus Kahn is a Stern's boy and Rubio's camp will definitely listen to what commish has to say about this situation.

I bet that Lindsey, Pfun and Penn are kicking themselves right now for refusing that GM job. Rubio is a sport marketer’s dream - looks, flash, hair, accent, international appeal. Taylor maybe an idiot basketball-wise, but he's a buisnessman first and foremost and the fact is that Rubio could sell boatloads of tickets and other stuff for Papa Glen, so he will go out of his way to assure Ricky that he's wanted in Minny.

[prefuse73]

Once Rubio gets a chance to talk to Kahn and realize that Kahn wants marketable star here and that Rubio fits the bill, it will be all good. He may not make tons of money on the contract, but I am sure there will be plenty of endorsement opportunities...(yes even if he is in Minnesota)

I agree that picking Flynn probably confused him, but again, once they can talk to Kahn and see that #1, the Flynn pick was part of a deal to hopefully get evans and #2, regardless, Flynn was the BPA in their eyes.

Like a lot of you, I am hoping for a trade to balance out the roster, but I am also fairly confident that this is 16 mos process not meant to be all fixed up after this draft. There are worst things than knowing that we will have a competent floor general on the court for 48 minutes every game. I think Flynn could settle into a Nate Robinson role and just be a huge spark plug off the bench. Except for Flynn has better pg skills and is taller.

[MagnusPinus]

Since kahn took ricky he had to take curry, who can definitely play with him... Flynn is just same position of Rubio. This was such a mistake

[workforce3]

It's a mistake plain and simple! Neither player want to come off the bench to another rookie, no way!

If it was veteran player, maybe. But not another rookie. NO WAY! I''m sure that is what both camps are saying. They both want to establish themselves as great rookie point guards, assist etc. Then how can you evenly distribute 1 ball?

[Tirion]

If it was veteran player, maybe. But not another rookie. NO WAY!

Rookies are SUPPOSED to come off the bench actually. And either way they both would start - that's the plan.

[LaettnerStrikes]

He may not make tons of money on the contract, but I am sure there will be plenty of endorsement opportunities...(yes even if he is in Minnesota)

I understand that New York is the endorsement capital of the world, but it's not like Minneapolis is a podunk town devoid of companies with national and international marketing opportunities. Minnesota is home to Best Buy, 3M, Target, General Mills, Supervalu, Toro, Ameriprise, ect. Not to mention its an hour plane ride to Chicago, the third largest market in the U.S.

[Devilzsidewalk]

It's a mistake plain and simple! Neither player want to come off the bench to another rookie, no way!

If it was veteran player, maybe. But not another rookie. NO WAY! I''m sure that is what both camps are saying. They both want to establish themselves as great rookie point guards, assist etc. Then how can you evenly distribute 1 ball?

I know, I can't believe we passed on all those awesome shooting guards and small forwards

[Dewey]

Playing time is not an issue, it's playing time at SG (offensively & defensively) that becomes the issue for both of them.

Hunch: I'm become more sold overnight that we will trade one of these two PG's in the near future. Kahn talked about being in the business of developing players, and that will not take place when you have two rookie PG's in the top 10. Therefore, he has called his own bluff. If things are looking like they will move along okay with the Rube, and it sounds like they will, then I suspect we will push forward to complete a Flynn trade for a SG??? ... Evans ... Fernandez, other, etc...

I think Rubio has so much development ahead, especially physically, and I feel that will result in a higher ceiling 2-3 years up the road. Him getting stronger will have a very big impact on his ability to improve his shooting. This does not mean Flynn will not be a high quality PG ... we're rolling the dice here, and that's apart of the business IMO.

12 man roster
PG = Rubio/Telfair ... Flash & Hash
SG = Evans/Ellington ... Drive & Thrive
SF = Brewer/Gomes ... Gazelle and the Nome
PF = Love/Smith/Songalia ... Loverboy, Raging Rhino, and Bull
C = Jefferson/Thomas/Maddog ... The Committee

[workforce3]

[quote="Devilzsidewalk"][quote="workforce3"]It's a mistake plain and simple! Neither player want to come off the bench to another rookie, no way!

If it was veteran player, maybe. But not another rookie. NO WAY! I''m sure that is what both camps are saying. They both want to establish themselves as great rookie point guards, assist etc. Then how can you evenly distribute 1 ball?[/quote]

I know, I can't believe we passed on all those awesome shooting guards and small forwards[/quote]


I get your point but wouldn't drafting Jordan at least give you a fighting chance for the playoffs until Jefferson gets back?

[Dual]

Hi there. Let me start by saying that I hate starting a new thread on Rubio when the board is packed with them, but there seems to be a lot of non-sense and wild thinking all over the place and I thought I'd just try to calm down things a bit and share whatever input a Spanish basketball fan like me can have on this situation. Let me tell you it's about 11.30am here, I've slept barely 4-5 hours and draft night was too a non-stop carousel for hardcore NBA fans on the other side of the pond. But it's time to think twice about what we lived last night and put some perspective.

Now, first of all, forget about the weather, the lack of success and whatever cliches were repeated over and over last night. What every Timberwolves fan needs to know about Ricky Rubio and the chances of him signing this year, is that above any other factor, the guy wants to play, and wants a commitment from the team that he will have the minutes, even in the case he struggles on his first season. And even though it may seem prima donnish, he rightfully asks so, since he will have to pay a whole lot of money and basically play for free the first 2-3 seasons of his rookie contract. Assuming he finally pays his buyout to come and play next season, no other player has ever needed to do that. No other player has seen himself in such a tough situation with his club (DKV) while being so eager and decided to join the NBA right away.

So, after everything that went through last night, what could be the biggest obstacle here? Well, first of all I think there was plenty of shock last night for Rubio and his camp when he slipped past OKC and Sacramento. But that shock eventually goes away. What probably puzzled them more is Flynn's pick. It is my opinion that Kahn was committed to keeping Ricky from the moment he knew he could get him with the 5th pick, but he knew as well that Rubio could be not coming over till 1-2 years from now, so with the 6th pick he chose an insurance policy in case he had to wait for Rubio. But here's the problem: from the moment you're picking another high-profile PG right after you select Rubio, you're telling the guy that he's going to have to pay to play (and a boat load of money), but he's not even guaranteed to have the minutes and the team's reins. If you ask me, there lies maybe the lone (depends on how do you like the later picks), but also very important mistake by David Kahn last night.

Of course, there's nothignt set on stone yet, and I think just like all of us can see last night's draft from a different perspective the morning after the events, so do the Rubio's. They are going to talk to the Timberwolves, and David Kahn is going to have to convice them that this is the right place for Ricky to start a great career. He needs to show them that he's going to have the minutes, he's going to have a young core around him (another important factor for Rubio regarding the transition he's going to have to make with such a change in his life), but more important, something that no other team can offer even if some others seem a great fit for him: this team doesn't have a coach, and it doesn't have one because they wanted to know what their selections would be before hiring one. That is something that could make the difference in this affair. If the Timberwolves show Ricky that he's their guy, that they're going to put him in a position to run the team, and run it to his strenghts (and that would be in the T'wolves benefit as well, since he's so freaking good at making his team and teammates better), then they have a very good chance to see him pay that buyout and sign that contract this summer. Yet again, there's that little thing that will be on the back of some people's head, including in Rubio's camp: the Timberwolves, with the 6th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, selected Jonny Flynn.

So if Kahn really wants to see Ricky here next season, his best chance would be to trade Flynn for some help in another position.

Finally, if you're still into what at the end of the day use to be more or less important, but never determinant details, let's talk about the weather: Ricky knows from Sergio Rodríguez (from the Canary Islands, a tropical, all year round warm place), Rudy Fernández (from Majorca, a quite warm island during the winter that's very hot and humid on summer) and José Calderón (from Extremadura, an extremely hot region) that there's no problem for a Spanish NBA player to spend the NBA season in a city that enjoys such a cold weather during that half of the year. No matter how you look at it: that's secondary, even for the players' families.

What is not so secondary though, is money. Even if you are willing to play for free for the first 2-3 years. However, here's some positive thinking for some of you guys: if Ricky decides to stay a couple of years in Spain, till his contract with DKV Joventut ends, he won't have to pay the buyout and he will get all of his rookie contract for himself. But... that would keep him from signing his first big fat NBA contract two more years, so his window to make as much as he can out of his basketball life (just like any other professional athlete) will be considerably shorter.

So, at the end of the day, the buyout may seem like a big deal, and the winter in Minneapolis won't be too welcoming for a Spanish teen used to live by the sea in a warm Mediterranean city, but the main issue here is: how bad do the Timberwolves want him now, how committed are they to giving Ricky the chance to start and play heavy minutes from day one, and how do they show him and his family that commitment. Once again, some will like the idea and some will not, but trading Jonny Flynn might be the key.

+1
Great post sugarless, so glad to see u here .

[john2jer]

It's a mistake plain and simple! Neither player want to come off the bench to another rookie, no way!

If it was veteran player, maybe. But not another rookie. NO WAY! I''m sure that is what both camps are saying. They both want to establish themselves as great rookie point guards, assist etc. Then how can you evenly distribute 1 ball?

I know, I can't believe we passed on all those awesome shooting guards and small forwards

I get your point but wouldn't drafting Jordan at least give you a fighting chance for the playoffs until Jefferson gets back?

Summer league games don't help you make the play-offs.

[Esohny]

I definitely agree with a lot of what you're saying. I really expect to see a trade at some point here, but hell, that's still a ton of talent in the backcourt and I'd be interested in seeing if it would work.

Rubio might not be psyched about guarding SGs, but he's 6'5'' in shoes and Flynn is strong and quick enough to stick with the fast PGs, so it should be ok on defense, especially if Brewer comes back ready to play at SF and he can help out on perimeter D.

On offense, the problem is longer range shooting. Flynn can get to the rack and finish, and they're both passers, especially Rubio obviously. Kevin Love will be better from the mid-range after a year of development, and it's not like they can't still work the ball around with great movement until they catch Jefferson in a 1:1 situation and give it to him in the post.

I would have rather had a combination of Flynn-Harden or Rubio-Harden, but we were not in the playoffs next year anyway, so I'm fine with running an experiment after taking the BPA.

[Frozen3161]

Minnesota is home to Best Buy, 3M, Target, General Mills, Supervalu, Toro, Ameriprise, ect. Not to mention its an hour plane ride to Chicago, the third largest market in the U.S.

U.S. Bank is headquartered in Minnesota

[GopherIt!]

Minnesota is home to Best Buy, 3M, Target, General Mills, Supervalu, Toro, Ameriprise, ect. Not to mention its an hour plane ride to Chicago, the third largest market in the U.S.

U.S. Bank is headquartered in Minnesota

Don't forget Fanball.

[Genjuro]

I kind of agree, but it's more a combination of all the facts.

Remember he still needs to get an extremely difficult deal with Joventut in order to lower a lot his buyout (otherwise he wouldn't be able to pay it) or to wait until October to have the court hearing (and who knows when until there's a definitive sentence).

So to expect him to bet on a the NBA with all those matters just to play in a city he doesn't seem to like and especially having to battle with such a solid PG as Flynn (I saw the guy live back in 2007 in Novi Sad and he was likely the most effective American in a team that featured Curry himself or Beasley), seems pretty unrealistic.

Marca has just released an article talkinga about this stuff: http://www.marca.com/2009/06/26/balonce ... 40526.html

They say Ricky won't play for the Wolves and he won't even be in the traditional press conference that each team hold with their draftees.

In my opinion, the most likely scenario at this point is that Ricky signs with either Real Madrid or F.C.Barcelona and stays for 2-3 more years in Spain.

[Dewey]

I kind of agree, but it's more a combination of all the facts.

Remember he still needs to get an extremely difficult deal with Joventut in order to lower a lot his buyout (otherwise he wouldn't be able to pay it) or to wait until October to have the court hearing (and who knows when until there's a definitive sentence).

So to expect him to bet on a the NBA with all those matters just to play in a city he doesn't seem to like and especially having to battle with such a solid PG as Flynn (I saw the guy live back in 2007 in Novi Sad and he was likely the most effective American in a team that featured Curry himself or Beasley), seems pretty unrealistic.

Marca has just released an article talkinga about this stuff: http://www.marca.com/2009/06/26/balonce ... 40526.html

They say Ricky won't play for the Wolves and he won't even be in the traditional press conference that each team hold with their draftees.

In my opinion, the most likely scenario at this point is that Ricky signs with either Real Madrid or F.C.Barcelona and stays for 2-3 more years in Spain.

That's nothing but the same ole rumor mill crap ... does anyone have anything new?