Keepers/valuable players/throw ins!

[klemen4]

I made a quick list of Minny roster situation:

Keepers:

PG: Flynn, Rubio
SG: Ellington
SF: Brewer
PF: Love
C: Jefferson

Players with value:

Gomes 3,8 mio+next year team option *
Telfair 2,5 mio+next year player option 2,7 mio
Smith 2,5 mio exp.
Songalia 4,5 mio+ next year player option 4,8 mio

* Third and fourth years are $1 million guaranteed only, final year $750,000 guaranteed only. All three years become fully guaranteed if Gomes is not waived before June 30th 2010.

Throw ins:

Madsen 2,8 mio exp.
Brown 0,7 mio exp
Thomas 7,3 mio exp.
Pecherov 1,5 mio exp.
Cardinal 6,7 mio exp.

--------------------------------

- Brown easily can be cut,
- than a trade of one valuable player+expiring for a good sg (1-2 year contract) could be made:

Smith/Madsen for one mid level money guy(sg) with if possible not many years left.

- Morison 5,2 mio exp. (Maybe he can shoot in the last year of his contract, nothing to lose)
- Vujacic 5 mio and 5,6 mio left (Maybe a potential, worth a gamble)
- Barbosa 6,6mio/ 7,1mio/ 7,6mio(player option) (Great lightning quick sg, great short term solution)

A lot of options open?

[shrink]

If I was going to rank the trade value of the Wolves assets, they'd probably go like this:

1. Al Jefferson: Great production, young, still improving, long contract is under market
2. Kevin Love: Terrific rookie year, young on rookie deal
3. Ricky Rubio: Superstar potential, young, and we can wait on him.
4. Jonny Flynn: Has proven nothing yet, but charismatic lottery pick beginning rookie deal.
5. MIN 2010 1st
6. Pekovic: Supposedly would have been a lottery pick in a nice 2008 draft.
7. Corey Brewer: MIN is still hopeful, so worth more to wolves than to trade
8. CHA protected 1st
9. UTA protected 1st
10. Wayne Ellington: Who knows? On a nice rookie deal. He'll get the minutes to rise on this list.
11. Craig Smith: Back-up PF, but reliable, cheap at $2.3 mil and expiring
12. Ryan Gomes: Cheap, productive, works hard. His deal is noly partially guaranteed - value there for cap space.
13. Sebastian Telfair: He is what he is, but he's effectively priced as a back-up PG.

Expiring contracts only have value if we'd trade to take on money, and I doubt MIN will do that. However, they can serve as valuable filler for other expirings, and ranking here is on production vs size of deal

14. Oleksiy Pecherov: Not much money, but a slight chance he can develop.
15. Etan Thomas: Workman-like big but overpaid. He'll get some minutes on the wolves
16. Bobby Brown: Pretty small sting if he picks up his player option
17. Mark Madsen: good character guy/clubhouse/cheerleader and he's cheap.
18. Brian Cardinal: He's betterthan I thought, but not worth $6.75 mil.

19. Darius Songalia: He can play some, but wields 2010 guaranteed salary

[Krapinsky]

Pretty good Shrink. I would just move Ellington to 9 considering we got the Charlotte pick for the 18th pick this year and Ellington was taken 28th.

[Biff Cooper]

Shrink
Might put Rubio ahead of Love
Pekovic missing - probably behind Flynn?

[shrink]

Good comments. I'll go edit.

I'll probably put Rubio ahead of of Love once the uncertainty surrounding the contract is finished. He might even belong in front of him now by MIN's perspective, since I don't think waiting a year huts us at all.

Agree on Pekovic and I agree on Ellington too

[revprodeji]

RUbio is ahead of Love if this is a pure asset weighing thread. Pekovic is right after love.

[skorff26]

Telfair and Songalia both have negative value since they both will have committed salary for 2010.

Also I think Pecherov will get some minutes, and Thomas has more value than an expiring (especially I think at the deadline since he will get quite a few minutes here I think)

[shrink]

I suppose everyone will have their own ranking system, and moreover, different teams would line them up differently too.

I have Love up there because he's overcome his greatest negative from last year -- questions whether his game would translate against NBA competition. Now I have faith in Rubio's upside, which is far higher than Love's, and some faith in Pekovic's upside too. But Love's proven his value, and in the NBA, especially for big man population full of busts, I think that merits the #2 slot versus the uncertainty but higher upside.

[shrink]

Telfair and Songalia both have negative value since they both will have committed salary for 2010.

I considered that quite a bit. However, while I penalized Songalia for it, Telfair's about half the price. Moreover, the NBA is filled with all these MLE-and-higher PG back-ups. I don't think most teams would mind adding $2.7 mil for Telfair for one year. I'm sure it depends on the team though. If Rubio comes here, I'd certainly explore moving him from MIN. My point though is that he's effectively priced under the new NBA economy, while Songalia is over-priced.

[revprodeji]

problem with Pekovic is that he is good and he knows it. My guess is that he will not come over to be a back-up. He is better than Marc Gasol. This either means we trade him to a place he can start or we trade someone else. I would love to have him as our 3rd big man, but I would put my money on us trading him.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'd rank Gomes way higher just because of his versatility and his contract, he can get minutes with pretty much any kind of roster or injury situation

[GopherIt!]

Devilz who is that lady in your avatar?

yeah Gomes ahead of Ellington and the Utah pick.
I would also probably list Cookie ahead of Ellington too.

Where is about Norel?

[younggunsmn]

i disagree about peckovic being better than marc gasol, i know you're high on him, but c'mon, his rebounding and block #'s are terrible.

talent-wise peckovic may be just below our own 2010 pick, but the money he will demand to come over (and questions about if he ever will) push him below our cha pick and just ahead of our utah pick.
brewer also falls below our cha pick because of injuries and his poor showing the last 2 years.

that bobs pick is very likely to be a lottery pick, it's just below the suns and mavs unprotected 2010 picks as far as i'm concerned.

also rubio ahead of love.

songalia (and debatably telfair) is our only "negative" asset, and he can play so it's only slightly negative. we've come a long way in 2 yrs from james, hassell, jaric, blount (all of whom are still on other teams' books).

mavrokalidas and norel should go just above songalia.

I'd put our own 2010 2nd and owed houston and chicago/portland (lesser of) 2nd's below gomes and ahead of pecherov.

nice job shrink.

[revprodeji]

You need to use a conversion system for rebounds because there are not enough rebounds per game in that style of play. (Hollinger provides one)

Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

Using [Hollinger's formula], Pekovic's per-40 minute numbers for the NBA look like this: 21.5 pts, 10.1 reb, .560 FG%

His 2007-08 stats translated to this: 18.3 pts, 12.0 reb, .514 FG%. Not bad.

[the_bruce]

If I was going to rank the trade value of the Wolves assets, they'd probably go like this:

1. Al Jefferson: Great production, young, still improving, long contract is under market
2. Kevin Love: Terrific rookie year, young on rookie deal
3. Ricky Rubio: Superstar potential, young, and we can wait on him.
4. Jonny Flynn: Has proven nothing yet, but charismatic lottery pick beginning rookie deal.
5. MIN 2010 1st
6. Pekovic: Supposedly would have been a lottery pick in a nice 2008 draft.
7. Corey Brewer: MIN is still hopeful, so worth more to wolves than to trade
8. CHA protected 1st
9. UTA protected 1st
10. Wayne Ellington: Who knows? On a nice rookie deal. He'll get the minutes to rise on this list.
11. Craig Smith: Back-up PF, but reliable, cheap at $2.3 mil and expiring
12. Ryan Gomes: Cheap, productive, works hard. His deal is noly partially guaranteed - value there for cap space.
13. Sebastian Telfair: He is what he is, but he's effectively priced as a back-up PG.

Expiring contracts only have value if we'd trade to take on money, and I doubt MIN will do that. However, they can serve as valuable filler for other expirings, and ranking here is on production vs size of deal

14. Oleksiy Pecherov: Not much money, but a slight chance he can develop.
15. Etan Thomas: Workman-like big but overpaid. He'll get some minutes on the wolves
16. Bobby Brown: Pretty small sting if he picks up his player option
17. Mark Madsen: good character guy/clubhouse/cheerleader and he's cheap.
18. Brian Cardinal: He's betterthan I thought, but not worth $6.75 mil.

19. Darius Songalia: He can play some, but wields 2010 guaranteed salary

I think the CHA pick should be above both pek and brewer. Without upgrades this year CHA is fringe playoff at best, but probably a top ten lock to be honest then the year after the team is virtually in fall apart mode. Plus the protections degrade. My point is this pick is awesome.

I'd probably drop bassy to last on the list in terms of value, and songalia can actually play so he might have some actual value to playoff type teams who would like to conserve talent in 2010. Anyway my point is both of these guys are effective backups, while songalia is a little overpaid he's actually a decent player. Bassy is an ok backup, but very limited as a sub in starter imo. If songalia needed to start for 10-20 games in the event a player was injured it wouldn't be a huge deal because he can actually play. If a team needed to sub in bassy for 10 games, it's certainly a bad thing.