Cap/Tax/MLE Numbers...

[bstein14]

When do we know these for 09-10?

If I recall I think they were released(leaked) on June 30th most years... Is this correct?

[FGump]

No.

We'll know on July 8.

[Three34]

That's what the moratorium is for - working that stuff out.

[MilMinMan]

For what it's worth, yesterday Chad Ford said that his "league sources" were indicating the most recent cap projections are at $58.6 - $58.7 million (a 0.14% dip from last year). I'm not an "Insider" though so perhaps he talks about it more "inside."

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/ ... ace-090629

[LarryCoon]

The league & teams project the numbers based on the info at hand, but the league's audit officially determines the numbers upon which the cap is based. There's usually a little advance notice, but we're talking July 6 or 7. They haven't even started the process yet.

So even if Chad really did get info from league sources here, it's a league source with an unofficial projection, not a league source with hard data.

[Dunkenstein]

Hell. At this point Larry is considered "a league source" by half the reporters in the country. And justifiably so I might add.

[Three34]

I might ask him to be my character reference.

"Sham's attendance was very good this year....."

[StocktonShorts]

For what it's worth, yesterday Chad Ford said that his "league sources" were indicating the most recent cap projections are at $58.6 - $58.7 million (a 0.14% dip from last year). I'm not an "Insider" though so perhaps he talks about it more "inside."

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/ ... ace-090629

What about the luxury tax threshold?

[bstein14]

Those are some interesting numbers, as they would not have dropped as much as I had heard earlier.

Also, the MLE isn't tied to BRI so would it be possible to have an accurate estimate of that now?

That should go up even if Cap and Tax go down, correct?

[LarryCoon]

Also, the MLE isn't tied to BRI so would it be possible to have an accurate estimate of that now?

That should go up even if Cap and Tax go down, correct?

Correct.

We can project those now, but it'd take a lot of work -- there are a lot of end-of-year factors that change the numbers. Much easier to wait a week, and let the league do it.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

Also, the MLE isn't tied to BRI so would it be possible to have an accurate estimate of that now?

That should go up even if Cap and Tax go down, correct?

Correct.

We can project those now, but it'd take a lot of work -- there are a lot of end-of-year factors that change the numbers. Much easier to wait a week, and let the league do it.

I did it in mid February and came up with $5.872191 mil
I'm not counting on that being 100% accurate, but in recent times I've seen lots of people throwing $5.8 mil around.
I can't see how it would be LESS than $5.8 mil under any circumstances.

[LarryCoon]

Adjustments for incentives earned/not earned can change the number somewhat. If a salary was likely (counted against team salary) but not earned, then they remove it for computing total salaries, and if it was not-likely (not counted against team salary) but earned, then it is added to total salaries. So in the unlikely event that all exceptions (likely and unlikely) were not earned, it'll lower the total salaries, which will lower this season's average salary, which will lower the MLE -- but I don't know if it'd make it less than $5.8M.

[JES12]

The National Basketball Association today announced that the Salary Cap for the 2009-10 season will be $57.7 million. The tax level for the 2009-10 season has been set at $69.92 million. Any team whose team salary exceeds that figure will pay a $1 tax for each $1 by which it exceeds $69.92 million.

The 2008-09 Salary Cap was $58.68 million and the tax level was $71.15 million. Although league-wide revenue increased 2.5% this past season, the decrease in the Salary Cap and tax level for the 2009-10 season is the result of the formula used to set the Cap and tax under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement.

The new Salary Cap and tax level go into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday, July 8, when the league’s “moratorium period” ends and teams can begin signing free agents and making trades.

The mid-level exception is $5.854 million for the 2009-10 season and the minimum team salary, which is set at 75% of the Salary Cap, is $43.275 million

http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archi ... 10_season/

Min = $43.275
Cap = $57.7
Tax = $69.92

MLE = $5.854 million

[GrandAdmiralDan]

I did it in mid February and came up with $5.872191 mil

Ah, sooooo close

That's not off by all that much I suppose, considering the $2.15+ billion that needed to be accounted for to get there

[Dunkenstein]

I did it in mid February and came up with $5.872191 mil

Ah, sooooo close

That's not off by all that much I suppose, considering the $2.15+ billion that needed to be accounted for to get there

In your estimate, did you take into account the amount that was subtracted from the projected 09-10 BRI which was caused by the 08-09 BRI coming in less than the projected 08-09 BRI?

[GrandAdmiralDan]

In your estimate, did you take into account the amount that was subtracted from the projected 09-10 BRI which was caused by the 08-09 BRI coming in less than the projected 08-09 BRI?

No.

What does the BRI have to do with the average salary projection? It was always my understanding that BRI is not a factor for calculating average salary.

Am I somehow mistaken?

[Dunkenstein]

I apologize. I misread what you said and thought you had projected the salary cap.