http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13135What Does Hedo Bring? Free agent forward Hedo Turkoglu reportedly wants $10 million a year after his solid season and fantastic postseason with the Orlando Magic. Is that a good investment, for any team? Before anyone makes a commitment to him, here are some things to keep in mind.Turkoglu is 30 years old. That means he is in the upper part of the prime years of his career. Should he sign a free agent contract for the maximum years (six from Orlando, five from everyone else, unless Orlando facilitates a sign-and-trade), he will be 35 or 36 when the deal expires. Chances are by that time he will be overpaid for his production, because that's what happens to players at the end of their careers. It's not generally considered fiscally prudent to give contracts at that length and for the dollars Turkoglu is seeking to an athlete past the big 3-0. He's not that great of a shooter overall. Without looking it up, can you guess how many times in his nine-year NBA career Turkoglu has shot better than 43% from the field? Twice. Now, during his career he has also shot 37% or better from three-point range seven times (last year it was 36%). So what does that tell us? It says that inside of the three-point line Turkoglu does not take good shots. In fact, for his career he has shot 38.5% from the field on three-point shots and 46% on two-point shots (and 80% from the line). Roughly one-third of the shots in his NBA career have come from beyond the arc, but that also says that on two-thirds of the shots he takes – inside the arc – he is going to miss more than half the time. Is that acceptable? It depends on how you view Turkoglu. If he is going to be a ball handler and initiate the offense on your team, meaning he will work primarily from the outside, perhaps this works for you. If you need to fill a small forward role on your team and want Turkoglu because he's the best available who is a small forward, this will not work at all.
Why? Because Turkoglu is not a good rebounder. He is a finesse player who despite being 6-10 has only topped five rebounds a game twice in his career (the past two seasons at 5.7 and 5.3). He also isn't known for his defense, though it's not horrible. Lateral quickness is not his specialty, but he plays smart defense and has been known to give a bump at just the right time to throw off a player's timing and positioning. Since he is usually guarding smaller players, this can be effective. Now, if you want Turkoglu to help run your offense in a point-forward role because perhaps you don't have a strong point guard or your point guard is a better scorer than facilitator, then you will be signing the right player. At 4.9 assists a game over the past two seasons, Turkoglu has become a more effective player the more he has the ball in his hands. This worked well with Jameer Nelson and Rafer Alston, but it won't work with everyone. He ranked 35th in the NBA last season in assists with his 4.9 per game average; however, his assist/turnover ratio was only 1.84/1 – not really anything to write home about.
Again, good for a small forward as a change of pace to a standard offense, but not as good as decent point guard. Where Turkoglu sets himself apart is with his brains. He knows how to do the small things in clutch situations, he isn't afraid to take that big shot, and he isn't afraid to pass on that big shot for a better one for a teammate. How much is that worth? Turkoglu passed on $35 million over four years from the Orlando Magic just after helping lead them to the 2009 NBA Finals (hence the decision to move for Vince Carter) – do his numbers justify more than that, if it's even available on the open market? Do they even justify that offer? If you were in charge of a team and they were making a decision on whether or not to add Hedo Turkoglu for $10 million a year, would you do it?
