Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown

[nate33]

Nate's Free Agency 2009 Analysis:
These are my estimates of what the current crop of free agents will cost. This is what I think they are worth in a normal market. I suspect that some of the Top Tier free agents will find themselves getting Second Tier money, and some of the Second Tier free agents will find themselves getting Bargain Basement money. There is a lot of supply in the market and not much demand.

Top Tier Free Agents (full MLE or more)
PGs
A.Miller
SGs
Iverson
SFs
Marv.Williams
PFs
Lee
Gooden
Cs

Second Tier Free Agents ($2-5M)
PGs
Sessions
N.Robinson
SGs
SFs
Kleiza
Szczerbiak
PFs
J.Smith
Powe
G.Davis
Diogu
Cs
Nesterovic
B.Wallace

Bargain Basement (LLE or less)
PGs
Marbury
E.Watson
SGs
J.Stackhouse
K.Bogans
Pavlovic
M.Daniels
SFs
D.Mason
Udoka
Tim Thomas
PFs
Mensah-Bonsu
Skinner
Moore
Oberto
A.Walker
St.Swift
C.Simmons
Cs
A.Gray
Jason Collins
A.Foyle

Players with partially guaranteed contracts or team options who may become free agents:
S.Blake
McCants
Outlaw
Bowen


Team by Team Analysis:Looking at the financial situations of the teams in the league, we can gauge the probability that they will participate in the free agency market. Here is my analysis:

Won't participate in free agency: These teams won't be players in the free agency market. That is, they won't commit anything more than vet-minimum money
Charlotte: full roster, luxtax
Chicago: saving for 2010, luxtax
Denver: luxtax, resigning Anderson is all they'll do
Detroit: used up cap room already
Indiana: luxtax
LA Lakers: Signed Artest and resigned Odom. They're done.
Memphis: used up cap room in Randolph trade
Miami: saving for 2010
Milwaukee: strapped for cash but will be $5M under luxtax if they cut Bowen. Highly doubtful they'll spend it after sacrificing RJeff in a salary dump.
New Orleans: luxtax
Phoenix: luxtax
San Antonio: Used up cap room on McDyess. They could still resign Gooden, I suppose.
Utah: luxtax. Trying to dump Boozer in order to retain Millsap.

Might participate in free agency:
Boston: Used MLE on Rasheed. Will they also resign both Powe and Big Baby?
Golden State: cap situation is tight with a lot of long term contracts. May have enough luxtax room for one Second Tier free agent
Houston: Ariza signing was made using injury exemption. Still have the MLE available but may choose not to spend it in order to have enough 2010 cap room for a max free agent.
LA Clippers: Plenty of luxtax room but a cheap franchise
Minnesota: $13M in luxtax room but might just wait until 2010. Have no need for PF's or PG's.
New Jersey: have enough room for two max contracts in 2010, but may decide to buy some bargains this year and save only enough for one max contract
New York: have enough room for one max contract plus another $8M or so next year. May spend some of that $8M this year. There's a good chance they'll resign Lee.
Oklahoma City: Have $8M in cap space but may be better off using it to acquire picks and other assets from teams struggling to get under the luxtax.
Orlando: Payroll is astronomical after matching Gortat and signing Bass. They still have about $2M of the MLE left.
Sacramento: About $7M in cap space. Need a PG bad but may wait until 2010 when they have more cap room.
Toronto: Turkaglu deal was actually a trade, leaving them with cap room. They used most of their MLE on Jarrett Jack. Have less than $2M left.

Probable participants in free agency:
Atlanta: No cap space due to holds on Childress and M.Williams. Already resigned Bibby and Zaza. Will probably resign Williams. Have the MLE available.
Cleveland: Spent a lot of money so far on Shaq and Varajeo, but still have MLE available. May have used some of the MLE on Anthony Parker, his deal wasn't disclosed.
Dallas: Full MLE available since Orlando matched Gortat, and appear willing to spend it. Need a center and a true SG. There are none left on the market.
Philadelphia: $9M in luxtax room but needs a PG. Probably will resign A.Miller, though Sessions might be considered given the age of the rest of their squad.
Portland: Only $7M in cap room but could be $11M if they cut Blake and Outlaw. Need SF and PG. Reportedly looking at Andre Miller.

How it affects us:More and more teams have shot their wad, yet there's still a few decent veteran bigs on the market. I'd be happy with Nesterovic, Oberto, Joe Smith or Powe. But how much more do we need to offer to lure them away from championship contenders waiving vet-minimum offers?

Diogu might be interesting, but I don't see EG going after a young inexperienced guy like that.

I'm a little surprised nobody has picked up Gooden yet. Of course, I don't particularly want him either, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

[mhd]

Great post Nate!

I don't think Rasho gets the full MLE at all. He's undervalued though IMO. He'd be a really good fit backup Howard in orlando for the LLE.

[Mortality Pie]

For a second I thought by "J. Smith" you meant Josh Smith. I almost lost it.

Of the 2nd tier PFs that you mentioned, I think I'm most intrigued by Brandon Bass, but I'm afraid he's drawing too much interest around the league already.

Any chance Denver doesn't resign Anderson? I'd definitely like to have him, but does it seem that his man defense is slightly overrated? He's obviously great with weakside help, but it seems to me like he sometimes has trouble staying in front of his own guy. I'd imagine that he'd draw a lot of interest too if he doesn't sign with Denver.

[FreeBalling]

Nate you are the man! You clearly have a good insight into basketball, much more than I do.

Question using the tax level, does the MLE/LLE mean we can exceed the tax level w/o paying the tax for going over? If yes how much do we have to offer?

Thanks for the post above.

[closg00]

Nice work Nate, and greatly appreciated.

A couple of thoughts.

My best-guess is that we will try to unload/exchange James for a 2nd-tier PF, if that doesn't work, I expect us to sign a cheapie rook, or a bargain-basement PF. Note how Eastern teams are beefing-up. We currently would be amongst the weakest in the front-court area. Ernie (through his statements) has really been trying to prepare/justify NOT-signing any additional front-court help, and that really concerns me.

ps Moon received the qualifying offer from the heat.

[nate33]

Nate you are the man! You clearly have a good insight into basketball, much more than I do.

Question using the tax level, does the MLE/LLE mean we can exceed the tax level w/o paying the tax for going over? If yes how much do we have to offer?

No. The MLE and LLE are exemptions for over-the-salary-cap teams to use to sign free agents. They have nothing whatsoever to do with the luxtax threshold (which is a different form of "cap").

The salary cap next year should be about $58M. The luxtax threshold should be about $70M. A team with a current payroll of $68M would have to use the MLE (or LLE) to sign a free agent. If that free agent costs $5M, then the team would be $3M over the luxtax threshold and end up having to pay a $3M luxury tax.

[nate33]

ps Moon received the qualifying offer from the heat.

Thanks. I corrected my post.

[nate33]

My best-guess is that we will try to unload/exchange James for a 2nd-tier PF, if that doesn't work, I expect us to sign a cheapie rook, or a bargain-basement PF. Note how Eastern teams are beefing-up. We currently would be amongst the weakest in the front-court area. Ernie (through his statements) has really been trying to prepare/justify NOT-signing any additional front-court help, and that really concerns me.

I've worked the Trade Checker night and day to try and find some kind of James for X trade that makes sense for both teams. I couldn't find one. There just aren't very many decent veteran bigs with expiring contracts worth about as much as James' expiring. Tony Battie would be nice, but it just doesn't make sense for New Jersey because they already have 3 PG's.

I think we're going to have to sign a free agent. I think we should be able to find somebody pretty cheap.

[nate33]

Dallas is going to give Gortat the full MLE. Houston is going to offer Ariza the full MLE. This is good. We want everybody to blow their wad on non-power forwards so that there's no money left but ours.

I wonder how much LA is throwing at Artest? It doesn't really matter. I'm figuring they'll resign Odom regardless. I'd rather if somebody else wasted the full MLE on Artest though. There would be that much less money available to use on power forwards.

[miller31time]

Nice work, Nate.

I really hope we don't disappoint and end up being speculated as going after player after player and eventually end up with nothing but a marginal practice guy.

The market is indeed looking favorably on us so our odds are rising.

I would be so happy if we could land McDyess for 2 years (3 mil per season), Smith for 2 years (2mil per season), Powe for however long he wants at about 3 mil per season or Bass (who will undoubtedly cost too much - PS, I'd put him in the upper bracket along with Nate Robinson).

I don't think we'll get any of them but it'd be pretty sweet if we could.

[Hoopalotta]

A longish term Powe signing is about the only thing being bandied around at multiple years that I like so much. I must say that one has a fine whiff of foresight there.

Not a help immediately, but could be a very solid long term move. At $3 million per anum, that would be a devilishly clever dilly.

It reeks of value like blue cheese near the sell by date.

[Rafael122]

Powe tore his ACL. Pass.

[miller31time]

A longish term Powe signing is about the only thing being bandied around at multiple years that I like so much. I must say that one has a fine whiff of foresight there.

Not a help immediately, but could be a very solid long term move. At $3 million per anum, that would be a devilishly clever dilly.

It reeks of value like blue cheese near the sell by date.

Your strategic use of similes is second-only to the care and devotion you put into each and every post.

[nate33]

Just updated original post to incorporate the signings of Artest, Ariza and Gortat.

[mohammed10]

nate-

Awesome post!

Hedo just signed with Portland...you can take him off the list

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4304805

[FreeBalling]

Nate you said we should be able to get tier II player at PF, who would you pick as the top three or all. I'd like to read your post.

PFs
McDyess
J.Smith
Zaza
Powe
G.Davis
Bass
Wilcox
C.Anderson

[mohammed10]

Nate you said we should be able to get tier II player at PF, who would you pick as the top three?

PFs
McDyess
J.Smith
Zaza
Powe
G.Davis
Bass
Wilcox
C.Anderson

FB-

Salary cap notwithstanding, I would go:

1. J Smith
2. B Bass
3. C Wilcox

Based on youth and athleticism

[Benjammin]

Nate you said we should be able to get tier II player at PF, who would you pick as the top three?

PFs
McDyess
J.Smith
Zaza
Powe
G.Davis
Bass
Wilcox
C.Anderson

FB-

Salary cap notwithstanding, I would go:

1. J Smith
2. B Bass
3. C Wilcox

Based on youth and athleticism

Based on your comment, I'm thinking you believe J. Smith is Josh Smith. Rather, J. Smith in this case is Joe Smith. Bass, Anderson, Davis will get more than the Wizards are willing to pay. Joe Smith or McDyess would be great options at a reasonable price. Zaza is more of a 5 than a 4, but for the right price is another good option. Wilcox isn't defensive oriented at all, some I'm not that interested in him. I think the likely type and quality of player the Wizards will sign though, will be a Brian Skinner/Shelden Williams type guy. If I had to list the guys who I think might be in the Wizards budget in preferred order it would be:

1.McDyess (probably will sign with a stronger contender)
2. Joe Smith (probably will sign with a stronger contender)
3. Zaza Pachulia (although he is more a 5 than a 4 and the need is more for a 4)
4. Shelden Williams
5. Brian Skinner/Chris Wilcox type guy

[Wizards2Lottery]

I think Pachulia can play the four. He spreads with floor because he has a decent jumpshot. Or at least he does every time he plays against us.

[nate33]

Nate you said we should be able to get tier II player at PF, who would you pick as the top three or all. I'd like to read your post.

PFs
McDyess
J.Smith
Zaza
Powe
G.Davis
Bass
Wilcox
C.Anderson

I'm not sure. The ideal veteran big would serve all three of the following functions:

1. Banger (to credibly guard Howard or Shaq for a few minutes a game)
2. Veteran (who won't mind sitting out some games but will be reliable when called upon)
3. Competent shooter (Jamison and Blatche are only credible shooters at the 4 spot, if one of them goes down, we'd have problems spreading the floor)

McDyess is the only guy that fulfills all 3 roles. He's the best fit. Zaza is pretty good too, though he's not as good of a shooter. The rest of the guys can fill two out of 3 roles except Anderson.

I'd be thrilled with McDyess and I'd be satisfied with anybody else except Anderson. Anderson is the one guy we don't really need because he's redundant with McGee.