Washington Wizards Salary Cap

[nate33]

The Wizards' salary cap over the next few years, assuming we resign Haywood to a 5-year, $50M contract next summer:

Code: Select all

Player           09/10  10/11  11/12
Arenas,Gilbert   16.19  17.73  19.27
Jamison,Antawn   11.64  13.36  15.08
Butler,Caron     10.03  10.81     -
Miller,Mike       9.88     -      -
James,Mike        6.47     -      -
Haywood,Brendan   6.00   8.26   9.13
Foye,Randy        3.58     -      -
Blatche,Andray    3.00   3.26   3.52
Stevenson,Desha   3.89   4.15     -
Young,Nick        1.75   2.69   6.50
Crittenton,Java   1.60     -      -
McGuire,Dominic   0.83     -      -
McGee,JaVale      1.50   1.60   2.46
2010 pick           -    1.13   1.22
2011 pick           -      -    1.06

Total Salary     76.35  63.01  58.24
Salary Cap       58.60  56.00  56.00
Luxury Tax       71.49  68.32  68.32
Luxtax Room      -4.86   5.31  10.08

We have $5.3M in luxtax room not counting Foye, Miller and DMac.

[Rafael122]

So we could re-sign the remaining 3 guys without having to pay the luxury tax or?

[Benjammin]

^^^
Rafey, it's really not that complicated. If the Wizards want to re-sign Haywood, Miller, Foye (and perhaps DMac) they're going to have to pay the luxury tax again, to the tune of 8-10 million additional bucks. They could try and dump Stevenson to save some of that money, but that would be difficult to pull off. I suspect they will decline the option on Javaris, saving a little money. Now that still begs the question, but how will the Wizards really make that next step forward if that's all they can do? The answer there is the "x" factor. Blake Griffin was an "x" factor, but Wizards bad luck prevailed. Blatche is waning as a possible "x" factor, but there is still hope for JaVale as the "x" factor. The "x" factor could be a trade for a legitimate two way four or something similar.

[Hoopalotta]

I think Benjamin covered it right there.

I will add that I have a sneaking suspicion that resigning Foye, Haywood and McGuire while letting Miller walk is in the cards. In addition to maybe not picking up Crit. If we resign Miller too, we're in the tax, no ifs-ands or candied nuts about it.

It's not a bad plan. I know some people would hate it ("We could have....!!!"), but just about every team board on RealGM is filled with "Our GM's an idiot!!!" posts. Even Pritchard is getting hammered now.

But I particularly like the McGeee X factor listed above, though I don't know what he will do this year.

[Kanyewest]

There's still doubt in my mind whether a another team will even offer Haywood 5 years/$50 million. Haywood will be 31 going into the 2010-11. Haywood also doesn't put up aggregate numbers which are traditionally rewarded; he doesn't average a double double like Andrew Bynum or David Lee or 2-3 blocks over the course of the season. And Haywood is on a good team where he won't be able to pick up gaudy numbers.

The Wizards are also traditionally in the bottom half of defenses which could hurt Haywood's value. Yes, there are stats that show that the Wizards are much worse with Haywood off the court defensively. But do all GMs looks at those stats? I also wonder if the trend will continue with Haywood having better backups in Blatche and McGee then the likes of Thomas, Songailia, and Ruffin.

Ultimately, team success will determine how much respect Haywood gets around the league and how he gets paid; ie improving from a 19 win team to whatever they finish with this year. More importantly, the Wizards will need to have great sucess in the postseason i.e. getting to the conference finals.

[nate33]

There's still doubt in my mind whether a another team will even offer Haywood 5 years/$50 million. Haywood will be 31 going into the 2010-11. Haywood also doesn't put up aggregate numbers which are traditionally rewarded; he doesn't average a double double like Andrew Bynum or David Lee or 2-3 blocks over the course of the season. And Haywood is on a good team where he won't be able to pick up gaudy numbers.

These are the per game averages of select NBA centers in the last year of their previous contract, followed by the terms of the new contract they signed in the following summer:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dalembert,sa  8.2  7.5  0.5  0.6  1.7  1.6 .524 .543 14.4
5 years, $55M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
kaman,chris  10.1  7.8  1.1  0.5  1.5  2.0 .451 .502 12.9
5 years, $58M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dampier,eric 12.3 12.0  0.8  0.4  1.9  1.8 .535 .573 20.1
7 years, $73M

If Haywood plays exactly like last season on a per-minute basis, only he actually gets 33 minutes a game, his numbers would look like this:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
haywood,bren 13.0  8.8  1.1  0.5  2.0  1.7 .528 .582 18.5

[Kanyewest]

Dalembert and Kaman were 23-24 when they signed their contract extensions; so the 76ers and the Clippers were counting on each of them to develop even more. Even Dampier was 28 when he signed that ridiculous contract when he averaged a double-double. Haywood will be 30-31 going into the 2010-11 season.

Will Haywood average 33 mpg? If everyone is healthy, the only way I see it is if Blatche or McGee get in Saunder's doghouse. I expect McGuire to see some minutes at the power forward position which could force Blatche to play more minutes at center.

[MJG]

Will Haywood average 33 mpg? If everyone is healthy, the only way I see it is if Blatche or McGee get in Saunder's doghouse. I expect McGuire to see some minutes at the power forward position which could force Blatche to play more minutes at center.

If the team limits Haywood's minutes to make room for McGuire at PF, then we have failed as an organization.

[miller31time]

I'm still having a hard time believing that we have the 3rd-highest payroll in the entire NBA.

[1977Odualum]

Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap

Postby LyricalRico on Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:37 pm

1977Odualum wrote:LyricalIdiot......your conclussion is what I have been saying for the whole thread. Thanks for agreeing with me



And so by agreeing with you...I'm an idiot? Freudian slip if I ever saw one.


LYRICALIDIOT: Do you miss everything in life with everything going over your head. You said that you felt there should not be player salary concessions as they should get as much as they can. In the extreme of YOUR philosophy, we might end up with a total of three players on the Wizards in another year......three on five, with your strategy will be hard to overcome). You also stated that having Haywood in the center is MORE than adequate (hmmmmm, if I remember he had a struggle beating out Etan, which we all observed). If you think that Haywood is the maan, then I need to know where you get your drugs.

With the whole thread you argued with me about the two primary issues above. In your last statement after all the arguing, your conclussion supported my theory and was contrary to your obviously wasted conversation. Read the threads, read the other sites, EVERYONE single one of them (contrary to your previous belief) says we NEED a big man but we got ourselves into a situation with NO money.

Barring any trade to rectify this situation, I would bet you thousands that the Wizards CAN'T win the East the way they presently exist (sorry to burst your drug induced bubble). I AM a Wizards fan, but how they exist TODAY will not create success.

Until you can stop contradicting yourself in your own statements, I would advise you to possibly get on one of the bowling threads, or possibly bocci ball.

[1977Odualum]

There's still doubt in my mind whether a another team will even offer Haywood 5 years/$50 million. Haywood will be 31 going into the 2010-11. Haywood also doesn't put up aggregate numbers which are traditionally rewarded; he doesn't average a double double like Andrew Bynum or David Lee or 2-3 blocks over the course of the season. And Haywood is on a good team where he won't be able to pick up gaudy numbers.

These are the per game averages of select NBA centers in the last year of their previous contract, followed by the terms of the new contract they signed in the following summer:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dalembert,sa  8.2  7.5  0.5  0.6  1.7  1.6 .524 .543 14.4
5 years, $55M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
kaman,chris  10.1  7.8  1.1  0.5  1.5  2.0 .451 .502 12.9
5 years, $58M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dampier,eric 12.3 12.0  0.8  0.4  1.9  1.8 .535 .573 20.1
7 years, $73M

If Haywood plays exactly like last season on a per-minute basis, only he actually gets 33 minutes a game, his numbers would look like this:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
haywood,bren 13.0  8.8  1.1  0.5  2.0  1.7 .528 .582 18.5

SO IF THE PRIMARY CENTER, WITH MORE MINUTES, CAN GET 8.8 REBOUNDS ........LOOK WHAT PLAYERS THAT PUTS HIM BEHIND!! (Sorry for the way the data extracted). Haywood would be about 18th in the NBA, even behind one of our own forwards)......way to go Haywood.

1 Dwight Howard Orl 79 35.7 336 4.3 757 9.6 1093 13.8
2 Troy Murphy Ind 73 34.0 146 2.0 715 9.8 861 11.8
3 David Lee NY 81 34.9 256 3.2 695 8.6 951 11.7
4 Andris Biedrins GS 62 30.0 223 3.6 470 7.6 693 11.2
5 Marcus Camby LAC 62 31.0 161 2.6 529 8.5 690 11.1
6 Al Jefferson Min 50 36.7 172 3.4 376 7.5 548 11.0
7 Tim Duncan SA 75 33.6 201 2.7 599 8.0 800 10.7
8 Carlos Boozer Uta 37 32.4 111 3.0 274 7.4 385 10.4
9 Andrew Bogut Mil 36 31.2 117 3.3 252 7.0 369 10.3
10 Emeka Okafor Cha 82 32.8 275 3.4 552 6.7 827 10.1
11 Zach Randolph LAC 50 35.1 157 3.1 347 6.9 504 10.1
12 Chris Bosh Tor 77 38.0 215 2.8 556 7.2 771 10.0
13 Yao Ming Hou 77 33.6 204 2.6 557 7.2 761 9.9
14 Antonio McDyess Det 62 30.1 185 3.0 422 6.8 607 9.8
15 Pau Gasol LAL 81 37.0 262 3.2 518 6.4 780 9.6
16 Al Horford Atl 67 33.5 145 2.2 479 7.1 624 9.3
17 Kevin Love Min 81 25.3 274 3.4 460 5.7 734 9.1
18 Antawn Jamison Was 81 38.2 196 2.4 525 6.5 721 8.9

[1977Odualum]

^ Which is why I think they're going to use Nick Young to unload DeBrick's contract, which I'm totally in favor of.

Hmmmmm.....every publication/rumor site that I have read has Nick Young gone. Looks like your totally in favor a a situatation that most likely will never exist.

[1977Odualum]

LyricalIdiot......your conclussion is what I have been saying for the whole thread. Thanks for agreeing with me

How about the number three rebounder for 2008-2009 (David Lee). His name has popped up as available for many teams. Maybe his 11 rebounds per game could have come to the Wiz as part of the 5th draft pick (NY wanted it). Oh......maybe you think that Lee is not a big man either.

How about Marcus Camby with his 11 rebounds per game, obviously he was available for trade also......do you think that he was a big man?

How about Antonio McDyess with his 10 rebounds per game, once again an available resource....is he not a big man also?

I'm still hoping that the Wiz get someone, but back to the crux of the problem, they need money but LyricalIdiot thinks that the players should be as greedy as possibly and not worry about building a team.

[nate33]

SO IF THE PRIMARY CENTER, WITH MORE MINUTES, CAN GET 8.8 REBOUNDS ........LOOK WHAT PLAYERS THAT PUTS HIM BEHIND!! (Sorry for the way the data extracted). Haywood would be about 18th in the NBA, even behind one of our own forwards)......way to go Haywood.

I'm so tired of having this same argument with every newbie who comes to the board. Haywood forces a ton of misses, which leads to a ton of rebounding opportunities. Unfortunately, he's not the quickest leaper in the world so he's not so good at forcing the miss and personally grabbing the board himself. It's a minor problem though. Forcing the miss is the most important thing. And Haywood does it in such a way that he draws a lot of attention to himself, freeing up his teammates to grab the rebounds. It's not a coincidence that the Wizards defensive rebounding percentage improves by 3.6% (a pretty large number) when he is on the court. Haywood is also consistently among the top 5 offensive rebounders in the league.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Odualum =

[KevinFCheng]

Odualum =

[Kanyewest]

Will Haywood average 33 mpg? If everyone is healthy, the only way I see it is if Blatche or McGee get in Saunder's doghouse. I expect McGuire to see some minutes at the power forward position which could force Blatche to play more minutes at center.

If the team limits Haywood's minutes to make room for McGuire at PF, then we have failed as an organization.

The real question who is best suited to play minutes at the backup power forward position. At this point, I would have to say it's Blatche's position to lose because he's bigger and is a better offensive game. But McGuire has a chance to get minutes because:

1) He's a better defender
2)) He generally knows where he's supposed to be on the court
3) He's a better passer; more assists and a better assist to turnover ratio
4) He's less likely to make the boneheaded play than Blatche
5) He's quicker than Blatche which could help him in some matchups (ie if LeBron is playing power forward on a game to game basis)
6) He's even a better rebounder than per 36 minutes

Assuming Jamison plays 34 mpg and Haywood plays 33 mpg, that's only 30 minutes per game to divide among Blatche, McGee, and McGuire. Andray Blatche by himself averaged 25 mpg after Eddie Jordan was fired.

[nate33]

Will Haywood average 33 mpg? If everyone is healthy, the only way I see it is if Blatche or McGee get in Saunder's doghouse. I expect McGuire to see some minutes at the power forward position which could force Blatche to play more minutes at center.

If the team limits Haywood's minutes to make room for McGuire at PF, then we have failed as an organization.

The real question who is best suited to play minutes at the backup power forward position. At this point, I would have to say it's Blatche's position to lose because he's bigger and is a better offensive game. But McGuire has a chance to get minutes because:

1) He's a better defender
2)) He generally knows where he's supposed to be on the court
3) He's a better passer; more assists and a better assist to turnover ratio
4) He's less likely to make the boneheaded play than Blatche
5) He's quicker than Blatche which could help him in some matchups (ie if LeBron is playing power forward on a game to game basis)
6) He's even a better rebounder than per 36 minutes

Assuming Jamison plays 34 mpg and Haywood plays 33 mpg, that's only 30 minutes per game to divide among Blatche, McGee, and McGuire. Andray Blatche by himself averaged 25 mpg after Eddie Jordan was fired.

Blatche will probably average about 22 minutes and McGee and McGuire will combine to handle the other 8 minutes at PF and C (in games where everybody is healthy). Of course, there will be the occasional injuries which will thrust our backups into more prominent roles. The sum total of everybody's average minutes per game will be greater than 240, due to games missed.

[LyricalRico]

There's still doubt in my mind whether a another team will even offer Haywood 5 years/$50 million. Haywood will be 31 going into the 2010-11. Haywood also doesn't put up aggregate numbers which are traditionally rewarded; he doesn't average a double double like Andrew Bynum or David Lee or 2-3 blocks over the course of the season. And Haywood is on a good team where he won't be able to pick up gaudy numbers.

Hard to argue with that logic. Based on nate's numbers, we already have enough re-sign Foye to a JR Smith type contract (something starting at $5M). If we can get Haywood's first year salary down to $7M, that could give us enough to re-sign McGuire (about $1.5M in the first year).

Still no Mike Miller without going into the tax, though. That's a tough situation unless the light turns on for Nick Young (which I highly doubt). If Mike Miller is playing great at mid-season, I think Ernie will have to shop Young+DeBrick (and maybe even Critt) for an expiring so that we can keep him. I'd actually like for him to do it now so we can get it out of the way.

[Severn Hoos]

There's still doubt in my mind whether a another team will even offer Haywood 5 years/$50 million. Haywood will be 31 going into the 2010-11. Haywood also doesn't put up aggregate numbers which are traditionally rewarded; he doesn't average a double double like Andrew Bynum or David Lee or 2-3 blocks over the course of the season. And Haywood is on a good team where he won't be able to pick up gaudy numbers.

These are the per game averages of select NBA centers in the last year of their previous contract, followed by the terms of the new contract they signed in the following summer:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dalembert,sa  8.2  7.5  0.5  0.6  1.7  1.6 .524 .543 14.4
5 years, $55M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
kaman,chris  10.1  7.8  1.1  0.5  1.5  2.0 .451 .502 12.9
5 years, $58M

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
dampier,eric 12.3 12.0  0.8  0.4  1.9  1.8 .535 .573 20.1
7 years, $73M

If Haywood plays exactly like last season on a per-minute basis, only he actually gets 33 minutes a game, his numbers would look like this:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
haywood,bren 13.0  8.8  1.1  0.5  2.0  1.7 .528 .582 18.5

Good breakdown, nate - and it does make me worried that we'll be looking at a $10M/year contract for Haywood, which would significantly reduce our flexibility with other players. And don't get me wrong - I believe he is far more valuable than those 3 guys, and more valuable than all but about 5 or 6 Centers in the NBA. But I doubt (naively optimistic?) that he'll get an offer like those guys, for the following reasons:

* Age - as mentioned, they were all younger/up-and-coming players who held out the promise of "potential" and "development." Haywood is what he is - which is very good, IMO - but doesn't have the alluring appeal of the potential breakout player.

* Economy - with the downturn and the first-ever reduction in the cap, teams will be more careful about throwing money around. Especially when they consider that they won't be able to outrun the cap through annual increases, they may be reluctant to give out so much money to non-All Stars.

* Precedent - It's pretty much a consensus that all of those contracts were foolish deals. If I'm Ernie, I hope Brendan's agent brings those up. If nothing else, he could say - "Do you want to be thought of 4 years from now the way those guys are today?"

* OK, that might be a bit confrontational and could alienate BTH and/or his agent. But hopefully other teams see those deals and think twice about offering a similar deal to Haywood.

* Control - each of those deals were given by their current teams. Time will tell if a competitor would offer a similar deal. But for those who complained that EG was "bidding against himself" for DS - what about these deals? Hopefully, EG will maintain some sanity.

* Star Power - another GM would have a hard time selling Brendan Haywood as the big-ticket addition worth blowing cap space on. So even if he believes Haywood is the best value among available FAs, he might not be able to sell it to the fans.

All that said, it only takes one GM to explode the market. If a GM strikes out with the big names (James, Bosh, Wade), he could get desperate and throw $10M at Brendan. Which is why I'd prefer to see EG hammer out a deal this summer. But even if he goes to Free Agency, I'll be surprised if he gets $10M/year.