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Fire Sale

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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#21 » by Scoot McGroot » Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:40 pm

fienX420 wrote:Hey, I've said I don't want to dump a contract. I'm also in favor of paying the tax for one year. But do I think that's what we're going to do? I have no idea. Would I pay an extra $10 million to keep a player I like in Foster or Murphy in a year where we aren't a contender? Probably not. Even if you're a billionaire, that is a lot of money. Are the Simons OK with paying it? I hope so.




Either way, they're paying something huge. Whether it's an extra $5-10 million in luxury tax payments, or the team's young players or picks, they're paying something huge. Might as well do the one that doesn't stunt the future of your team.

The Simon's have paid the luxury tax before, even in seasons we weren't championship contenders. They have their new stadium deal now, and they're probably in a much better financial spot.


Either way, we'll all find out together. There's just so much uncertainty that I don't think any person, player, or team can predict what will happen. It would look pretty stupid to dump some contracts a year early while moving Hibbert, Rush, Hansbrough, or 1st rounders to do so, and then find out you did it all for naught....huh?
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#22 » by fienX420 » Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:44 pm

I posted in the trade thread what I think would be an ideal solution. Barring that or something similar, I think we cross our fingers and hope for a bail out - some sort of luxury tax amnesty. A lot of teams will be in bad shape, so I guess it's got a chance to fly.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#23 » by cavsfan_osiris » Sat Jul 11, 2009 1:25 am

fienX420 wrote:With the cap and luxury tax thresh-hold significantly declining for 2010-11, I think we may have no choice but to look to trade Murphy, Dunleavy, Ford, Tinsley, and/or Foster for expiring contracts. Pretty much anybody a team is willing to take (so probably not Tinlsey), we will have to lose for little in return. Maybe the Simons can buck up for one more year and wait till these deals expire, but the cost is going to be significant. If we are forced to shed salary, I think our ability to compete for the playoffs this season and next is going to be significantly compromised. And without maintaining ties to these players with the chance to bring them back at much cheaper salaries as long-term rotation veterans (particularly Murphy and Dunleavy), I think our ability to compete in the future will also be compromised (unless some serious star-level production emerges from Rush, Hibbert, and Hansbrough).


I would love to trade Zydrunas Ilguaskas for Troy Murphy.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#24 » by Boneman2 » Sat Jul 11, 2009 7:17 am

^^^ That's what I'm saying Scoot. Murphy is a double- double factory. Most contenders will give up something for that kind of production. Would you really want to throw in Hansbrough or a first when you don't have to? I certainly wouldn't. To a team like the Cavs Murphy would offer a solution to their frontcourt woes with minimal risk involved.

Ford can also be moved for expirings, plus incentive.

Foster can be moved for exprings, plus incentive too.

If a deal comes along, and the Simons wan't to avoid the tax, they'll deal at their discretion. My guess is the brothers like the mental makeup of our team and won't mind adding Jack to the bottomline. They'll pay whatever this year and enter next season with numerous options all over the roster. I wouldn't throw away the future by doing double-negative trades to avoid a few million.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#25 » by Scoot McGroot » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:36 am

Boneman2 wrote:^^^ That's what I'm saying Scoot. Murphy is a double- double factory. Most contenders will give up something for that kind of production. Would you really want to throw in Hansbrough or a first when you don't have to? I certainly wouldn't. To a team like the Cavs Murphy would offer a solution to their frontcourt woes with minimal risk involved.

Ford can also be moved for expirings, plus incentive.

Foster can be moved for exprings, plus incentive too.

If a deal comes along, and the Simons wan't to avoid the tax, they'll deal at their discretion. My guess is the brothers like the mental makeup of our team and won't mind adding Jack to the bottomline. They'll pay whatever this year and enter next season with numerous options all over the roster. I wouldn't throw away the future by doing double-negative trades to avoid a few million.



I think we're getting confused here.

In theory, in a normal year, with normal luxury tax increases, etc. we could trade Ford, Murphy, and Foster for expirings most likely, and possibly a bit of incentive.


However, in this case, if we're operating under the assumption that the luxury tax is going to go down around $7-10 million in the 2010-11 season, when Foster, Ford, and Murphy would all still be on the books, there's no way we're going to get a team to pay the luxury tax for Foster, Ford, and Murphy, AND give us value, or take on the luxury tax of those 3 guys without us giving up value.


That's the issue. And, while I respect osiris, he's one Cav's fan. I highly doubt management has ANY intention to trade Ilgauskas in a normal year, a guy that's been with that franchise for a decade. A more talented Jeff Foster, if you will; let alone trade Ilgauskas for Murphy, when doing so means they would pay almost $22 million extra in salary and luxury tax payments in 2010/11 without expecting some major incentive to do so.



Once again, if the luxury tax rises, or at least stays level, we're looking at a COMPLETELY different economy and set of trade values for ALL of our players not named Danny Granger than if the luxury tax level drops DRAMATICALLY, as the league is warning. At that point, you're looking at 20-25 NBA teams over the luxury tax, and almost no possible way to get expirings or get under the luxury tax before then, as those expirings in the summer of 2010 will have infinite value not for getting a LeBron or Wade, but rather for getting a team under the drastically lower luxury tax.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#26 » by basketballwacko2 » Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:36 pm

Ok Scoot so what about Murph for Big Z. Straight up or what about a Murph/Tinsley and #1 pick for Big Z and Boobie Gibson and a cavs #1, like a swap of picks? Any chance the Cavs do something like that? We'd save $2.5 mill this season and $15.5 next year. Gibsons last yr on his deal is not fully gauranteed.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#27 » by Boneman2 » Sat Jul 11, 2009 9:49 pm

Scoot McGroot wrote:
fienX420 wrote:Hey, I've said I don't want to dump a contract. I'm also in favor of paying the tax for one year. But do I think that's what we're going to do? I have no idea. Would I pay an extra $10 million to keep a player I like in Foster or Murphy in a year where we aren't a contender? Probably not. Even if you're a billionaire, that is a lot of money. Are the Simons OK with paying it? I hope so.




Either way, they're paying something huge. Whether it's an extra $5-10 million in luxury tax payments, or the team's young players or picks, they're paying something huge. Might as well do the one that doesn't stunt the future of your team.

The Simon's have paid the luxury tax before, even in seasons we weren't championship contenders. They have their new stadium deal now, and they're probably in a much better financial spot.


Either way, we'll all find out together. There's just so much uncertainty that I don't think any person, player, or team can predict what will happen. It would look pretty stupid to dump some contracts a year early while moving Hibbert, Rush, Hansbrough, or 1st rounders to do so, and then find out you did it all for naught....huh?


It would be our luck they'd revisit the 'Alan Houston Rule, after we made such a move. If there is such an amnesty deal in the works hopefully everyone is informed in order for transactions to be based off of future implications. The truth is there are some cities where this discussion is relevant, the Pacers apparantly reside in one of them. I really sense Bird is opposed to risking his young nucleus anyway.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#28 » by Scoot McGroot » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:15 pm

basketballwacko2 wrote:Ok Scoot so what about Murph for Big Z. Straight up or what about a Murph/Tinsley and #1 pick for Big Z and Boobie Gibson and a cavs #1, like a swap of picks? Any chance the Cavs do something like that? We'd save $2.5 mill this season and $15.5 next year. Gibsons last yr on his deal is not fully gauranteed.



In a normal year, I'm relatively ok with either of those options, as I'm sure the Cav's wouldn't be too worried about either of their value's as well.


However, if the luxury tax drops dramatically, Gilbert and Ferry would use that as an excuse to essentially milk any and all value out of us that they could. Maybe even Rush. At that point, I would want to just hang onto what we have, even though some are advocating here that the Pacers are going to have to do ANYTHING to get under the luxury tax.


This summer is going to be active in trades, but I don't see a lot of teams willing to take on additional salary.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#29 » by basketballwacko2 » Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:59 pm

Ok well I was looking at our salaries for 2010-11 right now with Murph, Danny, Dun, Ford, Tinsley, Foster, Rush and Hibbert we have just over $60 million committed if we're giving Jones $4 million and resigning Jack to $4 million that's $68 million to 10 guys, add McBob and and Tyler and we're over $70 milion to 12 guys not counting our 2010 draft pick. That's over the tax. And we still need a couple of guys because that's really only 11 if JT isn't playing.

As for the Cavs they have to resign Lebron how much will that take? They just gave a huge deal to Sideshow Bob, Shaq is expiring will they bring him back, West is ungaurantted. My bet is that they trade off West to some team who wants instant savings. They'll resign James for the max, what ever that is, they'll bring back shaq for a 2 yr deal if he wants to play more at that point. And their gonna be well over the tax level. They've shown a willingness to pay a lot of Luxury tax in the past. But if adding Murph would cost them $20 million they might be inclined to pass.

I could see a way they might put together a team that stays close to the tax threashold. James costs them $20 mn, Anderson Varejao who just signed at about $7 million, Shaq comes back at $8 million, Williams costs $9 mn, West and Gibson cost about $4.5 each, That's 6 guys at $53 million. If you add in Hickson, Jackson and Jawad Williams it adds about $3.5 mn plus Christian Eyenga their draft pick this season, you get a total of $57 plus or minus for 10 guys. Add Murphy to that the Cavs are at $68 or $69 million. They'd still need 3 or 4 guys and one would be draft pick, probably #30. That's not too much over the tax.

Now if they were to give us Gibson in a deal for JT and #1 pick that would add $3.6 mn to their numbers and clearly cost them that amount in tax as well. So would a future #1 be worth that to them? I don't know. They might do the Murph for BigZ.

As much as I don't want to deal off Murph I'd do it and if they'd take JT I'd jump at it even if it cost me a #1. I'd gladly take Darnell Jackson or Jawad Williams off their hands if they want to toss them in or even JJ Hickson if they have given up on him?
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#30 » by Scoot McGroot » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:37 am

They've definitely not given up on JJ Hickson. In fact, they're growing more and more fond of him by the day. It's going to take a lot of value to likely get JJ Hickson.
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Re: Fire Sale 

Post#31 » by basketballwacko2 » Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:31 am

Scoot McGroot wrote:They've definitely not given up on JJ Hickson. In fact, they're growing more and more fond of him by the day. It's going to take a lot of value to likely get JJ Hickson.



Ok I don't know much about JJ but the idea was just to add some salary to our side for this yr and next. I don't know how un realistic I am on my view of the Cavs salary structure for 2010-11 with a resigned James and Shaq, but if what I calculated is close they would only be at or about $74-$75 million. And I'd bet on them to make the finals if not win it all!

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