Rose Colored Glasses

[wiff]

It's still Summer time and it looks like the Thunder had a solid draft. They haven't made even a ripple in free agency but on paper even with simply the draft they have improved. Plus the kids have all gotten a year older. It will be Durant and Jeff Green's third season in the league.

But the question is how much have the Thunder improved by? 1 game, 5 games, 15 games, possibly the playoffs?

With the Rose color glasses that the fans wear predict the total number of wins the Thunder have next season.

I'm going with 37 wins

My limb prediction for next year James Harden wins ROY.

[Clangus]

Nice topic Name Wiff

My Glasses are of the very optimistic kind.

Im predicting a massive turnaround. There were so many little things getting in the way of a successful year last season.

1. Over a month wasted on PJ
2. First Season in a new city.
3. All 3 of our best players were playing different postiions than they were the year before. (Green at PF, KD at Sf and Westbrook at Pg)
4. we had no lineup consistancy.
5. We added 4 players (Thabo, Livvy, Krystic, White,) I know we alsays had white, but he was injured.
6. We traded away our veterens- Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox.
7. We had guysgoing from starting to D-League and back again (White and Weaver)
8. We had a rookie Coach.
9. We had alot of heartbreaking buzzer beaterrs not go our way.
10. We had injuries to a key guys. Mason, Durant, Green, Krystic. Etc etc

Most of those things will not happen again. There will be more stability and more continuity. Our main young guys have more experience and we added to our main weakness - outside shooting.
The guys will be acclimatised to OKC.
The extra experience will help them close out games.
Once the season starts I don't think there will be major moves made - aside from moving Watson and Wilkins- who aren't in the Rotation anyway.

My out on a limb prediction is a playoff Berth.

People always talk about " we haven't improved 20+ games", but we also weren't a real 23 win team last year. We were alot better than our record showed and the reason stated above are why.

45ish wins (and Yes I think that will be a playoff spot in the west this year.)

[slick_watts]

it's tough to say and, assuming the roster is what it is going forward, depends mostly on what you think russell westbrook and james harden are going to do.

james harden and russell westbrook have the most to offer this team in terms of improvement over last year. the thunder shooting guard position last season was not good at all, probably one of the worst rotations in the league. even a pedestrian season by james harden, say 13/4/3 on 45% shooting would be somewhat of an improvement. if you project a rookie of the year type season, say something similar to what o.j. mayo accomplished in memphis (19/5/4 on 46% shooting) that's probably the largest improvement on the team and worth 4-5 wins.

russell westbrook is really the key element. he scored well last year but wasted too many possessions. his play in this year's summer leagues has made me felt mixed towards him. on one hand i believe he'll improve as a scoring guard, but that's not what we need him to be. he has to cut down on the turnovers and run the offense effectively. sam presti passed up on a pure point guard with, i think, the expectation that westbrook will improve this facet of his game. if he can manage a 2,2:1 A:TO ratio or better, i think it's a successful year for him. i am concerned with backup point guard, i'm not sure livingston is the answer and earl watson definitely is not. assuming westbrook comes closer to the 2:1 A:TO ratio and shoots a modestly higher percentage i anticipate 1-2 win improvement from this position. i don't forsee it happening, but if westbrook 'figures it out' and can post a seaseon similar to say, what devin harris put up for the nets last year (20/7 2.2:1) i think that could be worth 3-4 wins.

i don't think kevin durant's going to take another major leap, save on possibly the defensive end. you can't get much more efficient offensively without adding some interior moves and play inside, i actually think it's possible durant's efficiency may drop a bit. i'd like to see him improve his defense and use his length to disrupt more on that side of the court. hopefully this is something scott brooks stresses to him and the team as a whole. i like the small forward rotation and this thabo sefolosha will thrive as durant's backup. i'm hoping durant improves some defensively and if he does i think it's worth another 1-2 wins.

most people here know i'm not fond of the power forward rotation. i don't think there's much room for improvement here. the acquisition of a legitimate center would help out, but if the roster remains the same i don't think power forward contributes to extra wins over last season. i'm not enamoured with any of the young guys (white, hardin, ibaka) and think jeff green will more or less replicate last season's productivity. i'll say this position is neutral.

center was also not a strong position, but i think nenad krstic is underrated and should get closer to his new jersey production levels with a full offseason. i think he played better defense than he did while in new jersey, though he's certainly no stopper. nick collison is steady but is still out of position at center. i think nenad krstic could contribute to 1-2 extra wins if he returns to new jersey form and i think he will come close to that.

so that's 7-11 extra wins. which would put the range at 30-34 victories. i hope scott brooks has this team playing some semblance of team oriented defense this season. if he gets this team using its athleticism on the perimeter, rotation crisply, and playing smart defensive basketball i think that could be worth 3-4 wins because okc was so bad at team defense last season.

that's 33-38 wins. split that down the middle and i'll go with 35 wins, assuming the roster remains the same all year, which is probably doubtful. if some things work out way better than i expect, i.e. russell westbrook posts a devin harris type season and jeff green undergoes experimental surgery to length his arms and legs, i think 40 wins could be a realistic goal. i don't think this roster has any shot at playoffs in the west next season barring some kind of trade.

[wizkid27]

I'm pretty much right with you slick, aside from a little more optimism in some areas and most notably (and noted) Mr. Jeff Green.

So it puts me in the 35-40 wins bracket. A very exciting amount of progress, but enough for a playoff berth.

[Clangus]

Bump

Coming to the end of the year, I went back and looked at some old thread to start the year..


This one was funny - we all thought we were being optimistic and yet were all wrong (guessed too few wins) So I am glad to be wrong.

Although I did predict playoffs

[Joel Embust]

Nice bump.

[slick_watts]

In my defense, the roster did not stay the same.

Do you guys think we're in the playoffs with a bench of Harden / Livingston / Watson / Wilkins / Collison / Thomas? Blah!

[mcmokken]

Do you guys think we're in the playoffs with a bench of Harden / Livingston / Watson / Wilkins / Collison / Thomas? Blah!

Yes, yes I do.

[fallacy]

clangus, you love to bump threads, on here and thunderfans

[Clangus]

clangus, you love to bump threads, on here and thunderfans

I was feeling reminiscent yesterday