Who to trade

[jumanji]

I'd start with Yuni and Bedard. I dont see those two being part of any future with the team. To a lesser extent i'd also shop Beltre, Lowe and maybe Wash if he can return something substantial. Would like to find some ready to go guys, possibly at 3rd and short. As for building for the future i think there is plenty to build on with Clement, Saunders, Aumont, Fields and others.

[Bulltalk]

Yuni....sure. I'm not big on trading Bedard now, unless you trade him for a bat that can be productive for us in the present tense. Reason being, with a rotation including Felix, Washburn (both red hot now), and a healthier Bedard, we just might be able to make a run at this thing, as improbable as that may have seemed at season's start. If you improbably make the playoffs, with such pitching that the M's possess this year (bullpen included)....you never know.

It is my understanding that if Bedard gets signed as a FA when his contract expires in the off-season, the M's will receive a 1st round pick, plus a supplemental 1st round pick from the team that signs him, much like we did with the Phillies signing Ibanez last off-season. Such a team would more than likely be among the 10 best teams in baseball. Such being the case, Bedard signing with another team in the off-season would, in all probability, land us a 20-30th 1st round pick, plus a pick somewhere between 31st and 36th. Z and the M's would then have 3 draft picks amongst the top 36 or so picks in next year's draft to continue stocking the farm with.

To me, that's a decent enough consolation prize for keeping Bedard, and giving this team a chance to compete for the division title if we don't resign Bedard in the off-season.

[slaterbug]

Yuni.

[HeavyP]

It is my understanding that if Bedard gets signed as a FA when his contract expires in the off-season, the M's will receive a 1st round pick, plus a supplemental 1st round pick from the team that signs him, much like we did with the Phillies signing Ibanez last off-season. Such a team would more than likely be among the 10 best teams in baseball. Such being the case, Bedard signing with another team in the off-season would, in all probability, land us a 20-30th 1st round pick, plus a pick somewhere between 31st and 36th. Z and the M's would then have 3 draft picks amongst the top 36 or so picks in next year's draft to continue stocking the farm with.

To me, that's a decent enough consolation prize for keeping Bedard, and giving this team a chance to compete for the division title if we don't resign Bedard in the off-season.

I'll have to correct you here Bulltalk. There is a chance Bedard gets deemed a type A free agent. However, it is not likely. I'll do a quick recap of how it is defined, and how that applies to Bedard.

The system is defined by the Elias Sports Bureau. As I understand it you take everyone’s two-year stats in a bunch of categories, and assign everyone ordinal ranks. Then you add that all up. The top 20% of pitchers are deemed type A, 21-40% type B and there are no type C's.

For starters, I believe it’s total games (as starts + 1/2 relief appearances), IP, Wins, W/L percentage, ERA, strikeouts. Then the top 20 percent get rated A, 21-40 percent are B, and then everyone else bites it.

Bedard only got 6 wins last year (68th in the AL among all pitchers), his win percentage was 60%, his ERA was 3.67, and 72 K put him at 70th among all pitchers. Bedard gets helped a little by his decent rate stats and hurt by getting killed on counting stats.

Last year, Bedard was rated the very last Type A free agent, so that means he needs to out do his 2007 stats (IP: 182 Wins: 13 W/L%: 72.2% ERA: 3.17 K: 221) So he either needs to eclipse those numbers or hope the crop of pitchers infront of him do worse. Basically awesome 2007 + crappy 2008 barely got him in. Essentially he needs to repeat 2007, all other things being equal, which they aren’t. One way or another 2009 won’t measure up to 2007, so I’d say it’s always been a longshot for him to reach Type A.

One thing to watch out for is that because he had DL time his stats get “made up” for a part of the time he was unavailable (up to 60 days revaluation of counting stats, if I recall correctly).

We need to trade him if we want value back.

[Sweezo]

Who's going to trade for Yuni? He's a lousy defensive SS who hacks at everything at the plate and makes too much money. In trade, he's a negative, not a positive.

I know USS Mariner has suggested putting Yuni at 2nd and moving Lopez to 3rd base when Yuni's back. I kind of wonder if that's actually the plan as Yuni was taking grounders at 2nd today with Wakamatsu. At second his lousy range is more or less a non-issue. Which is my way of saying...we're stuck with Yuni for awhile.

[Bulltalk]

It is my understanding that if Bedard gets signed as a FA when his contract expires in the off-season, the M's will receive a 1st round pick, plus a supplemental 1st round pick from the team that signs him, much like we did with the Phillies signing Ibanez last off-season. Such a team would more than likely be among the 10 best teams in baseball. Such being the case, Bedard signing with another team in the off-season would, in all probability, land us a 20-30th 1st round pick, plus a pick somewhere between 31st and 36th. Z and the M's would then have 3 draft picks amongst the top 36 or so picks in next year's draft to continue stocking the farm with.

To me, that's a decent enough consolation prize for keeping Bedard, and giving this team a chance to compete for the division title if we don't resign Bedard in the off-season.

I'll have to correct you here Bulltalk. There is a chance Bedard gets deemed a type A free agent. However, it is not likely. I'll do a quick recap of how it is defined, and how that applies to Bedard.

The system is defined by the Elias Sports Bureau. As I understand it you take everyone’s two-year stats in a bunch of categories, and assign everyone ordinal ranks. Then you add that all up. The top 20% of pitchers are deemed type A, 21-40% type B and there are no type C's.

For starters, I believe it’s total games (as starts + 1/2 relief appearances), IP, Wins, W/L percentage, ERA, strikeouts. Then the top 20 percent get rated A, 21-40 percent are B, and then everyone else bites it.

Bedard only got 6 wins last year (68th in the AL among all pitchers), his win percentage was 60%, his ERA was 3.67, and 72 K put him at 70th among all pitchers. Bedard gets helped a little by his decent rate stats and hurt by getting killed on counting stats.

Last year, Bedard was rated the very last Type A free agent, so that means he needs to out do his 2007 stats (IP: 182 Wins: 13 W/L%: 72.2% ERA: 3.17 K: 221) So he either needs to eclipse those numbers or hope the crop of pitchers infront of him do worse. Basically awesome 2007 + crappy 2008 barely got him in. Essentially he needs to repeat 2007, all other things being equal, which they aren’t. One way or another 2009 won’t measure up to 2007, so I’d say it’s always been a longshot for him to reach Type A.

One thing to watch out for is that because he had DL time his stats get “made up” for a part of the time he was unavailable (up to 60 days revaluation of counting stats, if I recall correctly).

We need to trade him if we want value back.

Thanks HeavyP. That was an informative post for me. What I said in my post was something I heard on sports radio, and I apparently gave it more credence than it deserved, didn't do any of my own background "Googling" to see how accurate it was. The fact of the matter is that I am not very knowledgeable about the "covenant" which lays out the terms for such things in MLB.

In light of the information and opinion you presented, I think I'd have to reconsider my post.

[Bulltalk]

Who's going to trade for Yuni? He's a lousy defensive SS who hacks at everything at the plate and makes too much money. In trade, he's a negative, not a positive.

I know USS Mariner has suggested putting Yuni at 2nd and moving Lopez to 3rd base when Yuni's back. I kind of wonder if that's actually the plan as Yuni was taking grounders at 2nd today with Wakamatsu. At second his lousy range is more or less a non-issue. Which is my way of saying...we're stuck with Yuni for awhile.

The cruel wisdom of Sweezo.

[jumanji]

Who's going to trade for Yuni? He's a lousy defensive SS who hacks at everything at the plate and makes too much money. In trade, he's a negative, not a positive.

I know USS Mariner has suggested putting Yuni at 2nd and moving Lopez to 3rd base when Yuni's back. I kind of wonder if that's actually the plan as Yuni was taking grounders at 2nd today with Wakamatsu. At second his lousy range is more or less a non-issue. Which is my way of saying...we're stuck with Yuni for awhile.

I actually think range is probably his strong suit. I'd get rid of him or send him down. When he gets back in the lineup they'll lose more games period. If the long range plan is to move Lopez to 3rd and make room for Ackley at 2nd i'm all for that whenever that time comes.

[BlackMamba]

i think bedard and washburn are the highest value players the M's have to get back a good player that will be able to start producing what the team needs.

[HeavyP]

Thanks HeavyP. That was an informative post for me. What I said in my post was something I heard on sports radio, and I apparently gave it more credence than it deserved, didn't do any of my own background "Googling" to see how accurate it was. The fact of the matter is that I am not very knowledgeable about the "covenant" which lays out the terms for such things in MLB.

In light of the information and opinion you presented, I think I'd have to reconsider my post.

Of course, I hope I didn't sound condescending at all. It's a complicated process that people don't know a lot about. I'm for trading Washburn (who said he may retire at the end of this year if he isn't with Rick Adair), so I say trade him and if he wants be with Adair so badly he can sign here at the end of the year. He won't be a type A or type B so it won't cost us anything.

I'd trade Bedard if I can get a position player who can contribute in a year or sooner.

I'd give Yuni away if I could.

[Zyme]

so can we get adam jones back please. Or at least a time machine so I can kidnap Bavasi before he thought about making that trade.

[jumanji]

so can we get adam jones back please. Or at least a time machine so I can kidnap Bavasi before he thought about making that trade.

No matter whether the deal made some sense at the time it turned out pretty bad. Adam Jones is bad enough, add Sherril and Chris Tillman and i think it is a disaster.

Having said all the above Bedard is a talented guy but i think he's too delicate and doubt they can get enough in a trade to make up for the Baltimore heist. Give me Jason Donald and another top prospect from the Phiiles and i may change my tune.

[Ex-hippie]

Who's going to trade for Yuni? He's a lousy defensive SS who hacks at everything at the plate and makes too much money. In trade, he's a negative, not a positive.

I know USS Mariner has suggested putting Yuni at 2nd and moving Lopez to 3rd base when Yuni's back. I kind of wonder if that's actually the plan as Yuni was taking grounders at 2nd today with Wakamatsu. At second his lousy range is more or less a non-issue. Which is my way of saying...we're stuck with Yuni for awhile.

Isn't it awesome being totally wrong about that?

Mind you, I was as wrong as you were.

[HeavyP]

According to USSmariner Bedard is currently a Type B free agent.

Wanted to touch on this since it affects trade value: there are ~10 guys ahead of him in the Bs right now, according to Eddie Bajek in Detroit Tiger Thoughts latest calculations. You want page 7. So the value for hanging onto him is not so great.

Fun fact: Washburn, according to this, is not so far off the B ratings himself.

Dave adds: However, offering Washburn arbitration, a necessary step in order to get compensation for a departing free agent, would be crazy. He’d clean the Mariners clocks in arbitration, thanks to his rosy ERA this year. So, he’s a non-compensation player, for all intents and purposes.

[Bulltalk]

According to USSmariner Bedard is currently a Type B free agent.

Wanted to touch on this since it affects trade value: there are ~10 guys ahead of him in the Bs right now, according to Eddie Bajek in Detroit Tiger Thoughts latest calculations. You want page 7. So the value for hanging onto him is not so great.

Fun fact: Washburn, according to this, is not so far off the B ratings himself.

Dave adds: However, offering Washburn arbitration, a necessary step in order to get compensation for a departing free agent, would be crazy. He’d clean the Mariners clocks in arbitration, thanks to his rosy ERA this year. So, he’s a non-compensation player, for all intents and purposes.

Maybe we should keep him for the rest of the season, and try to resign him when it's over.

[HeavyP]

Right, I don't hate Bedard as much as others, but if we can't get the type of player we want, I have no problem keeping Bedard and trying to sign him. However, part of me wants to try to get a Short Stop for him, since we don't have any in the minors (that can be ready soon).

[Sweezo]

Bedard being a Plan B screws everything up. I feel like we're forced to trade him. USSM has suggested trading Bedard and Washburn for J.J. Hardy. Hardy would be a great pickup...but man, that pretty much packs this season in. Could this team stay afloat without Bedard and Washburn? Possibly, but players are people. If I'm in the clubhouse and I see that happen, no amount of stats or arguments re: long term value will mean much to me.

Who's going to trade for Yuni? He's a lousy defensive SS who hacks at everything at the plate and makes too much money. In trade, he's a negative, not a positive.

I know USS Mariner has suggested putting Yuni at 2nd and moving Lopez to 3rd base when Yuni's back. I kind of wonder if that's actually the plan as Yuni was taking grounders at 2nd today with Wakamatsu. At second his lousy range is more or less a non-issue. Which is my way of saying...we're stuck with Yuni for awhile.

Isn't it awesome being totally wrong about that?

Mind you, I was as wrong as you were.

You have no idea...wait, that's wrong, you DO have an idea.

Seriously, how awesome is it to know we're stuck with some garbage player and then see our GM not only dump him off on someone else but get value back in return. Ahhhh...I love it!

[Bay_Areas_Finest]

Bedard and Washburn is way too much for JJ Hardy's sorry ass.

RIght now, it would be tough to move either of those guys with us right in the race for the division.

[jumanji]

Bedard and Washburn is way too much for JJ Hardy's sorry ass.

RIght now, it would be tough to move either of those guys with us right in the race for the division.

Hardy is 26, a career .260 hitter with some pop and a great glove. I wouldnt term that "sorry ass" considering the left side of out infield is hitting below the Mendoza line.

I will agree Bedard and Wash is too much, i think either plus a minor leaguer will get the job done.

[HeavyP]

Keith Law (who hopefully all of you understand isn't as bad as almost all the ESPN personalities, he was actually an assistant to Toronto's GM), said that Milwaukee would never give up Hardy for 'just Washburn and Bedard'.

This is what Dave was saying as well, we'd be the ones that would have to throw in more pieces.