2010 Disappointment

[Mr. E]

I'm one of those people who thinks that the teams putting all of their eggs into the 2010 basket are in for some major disappointment. I know that the Rockets are keeping an eye on 2010, but they are also maintaining/continuing to build a team that can stay competitive in the process. I think that we'll be OK and can still make a splash, but I don't think that the free agent class is going to be as storied as many have been claiming for a few years now.

due to the economic climate and the expected and substantial drop in the Salary Cap next season I am thinking that a lot of the players expected to be around as free agents in 2010 will instead sign extensions this offseason or during the season while they can get a more lucrative contract than a max deal under the lower cap.

Steve Nash was never thought of as one of the top tier free agents for 2010 due mostly because of his age, but teams were definitely looking at him to be one of those pieces that could be had to complete a team for a championship run. Well...he took himself out of that today with the 2 year $22 million deal he signed to stay in Phoenix. Can anyone argue that he would have made more money next year than what he got today? Well...scratch one expected Free Agent off of the list.

Yao could still opt out next season, but the chances are that he won't, and even if he does I don't know how many teams outside of Houston (who already have a vested interest in him) would throw a lot of money in his direction if it is not clear how or when he'll return. It isn't set in stone, but I'm thinking he's not going to be a factor in the 2010 sweepstakes.

Dwayne Wade is one of the top targets - probably #1 after LeBron, but the Heat are making the right moves to imprve the team, and he probably sees the writing on the wall. I expect him to sign an extension this year while the money is still good.

So that pretty much leaves LeBron, Bosh and Amare as the big names. Of those three I will be more surprised than not if LeBron leaves Cleveland. Bosh and Amare are both very likely to be moved this offseason or before the deadline, and the teams that would trade for them would likely only do so if some sort of extension agreement is already on the table.

Suddenly the 2010 bonanza is looking a little lean. Granted, this is all speculation, but that's my prediction on how things are going to go down.

[Teckon]

For Wade, Lebron, Bosh, there is a significant difference to sign a max deal this year vs next year. This year they only get 25% of the cap (for being 6 years in NBA) or 10.5% of the last drawn salary. Next year, they will be 7 years in NBA and will be entitled to 30% of the cap for max but the low cap next year will ruin their plan as they will not get better 1st year salary then signing an extension this year.

For maximum money, they should opt in since all of 3 have an player option that will give them a 10.5% raise and see what they can get in 2011-12 season. If the cap is still low, they can still resign with their team for maximum money. This approach give the maximum salary with the longest duration of contract = $169 million. This approach also seem most sensible as the players have the flexibility to change team if the cap for 2011-12 season go back to >$60 million level.