Value of the NY pick

[MeestR]

so ive been messin round on wickipedia the last few days looking at the nba drafts. this pick is more than just a high first round pick.

1991 and before-it appears they are all gone

1992- the all stars were: shaq(1), mourning(2), laettner(3), gugliotta(6), and sprewell(24) it seems of all the players in that draft class, only oneal is still playing.

1993- the all stars were: webber(1), penny(3), j mashburn(4), v baker(8), a houston(11), cassell(24) and van exel(37). i dont recognize any players from that class who are still playing.

1994- the all stars were: g robinson(1), kidd(2), hill(3), juwan howard(5), and e jones (10). the only the only players in this draft who are still playing are kidd and hill.

1995- the all stars were: mcdyess(2), stackhouse(3), rasheed(4), garnett(5), ratliff(18), and finley(21). it seems that joe smith(1), mcdyess, wallace, garnett, and finley are the only ones still playing.

1996- the all stars were: iverson(1), abdur-rahim(3), marbury(4), allen(5), walker(6), kobe (13), stojakovic(14), nash (15), j oneal (17), illgauskas(20), and ben wallace (undrafted). in case you were wondering about this strong class, the #2 pick was camby.

1997- the all stars were: duncan(1), billups(3), and mcgrady(9). this draft also saw van horn(2), tim thomas(7), foyle(8), croshere(12), and knight(16).

1998- the all stars were: jamison(4), carter(5), nowitzki(9), pierce(10), rashard lewis (32), and brad miller(undrafted). this draft also saw olowokandi (1), bibby (2) lafrentz(3), harpring (15), harrington (25), and alston (39).

1999- the all stars were: brand(1), francis(2), b davis(3), szczerbiak(6), hamilton(7), marion(9), artest (16), kirilenko(24), and ginobili(57). other notables were odom(4), miller(8), terry(10) maggette(13), chris anderson(undrafted) raja bell (undrafted).

2000- the all stars were: martin(1), turkoglu(16), magloire(19) redd(43). other notable are stromile swift(2), d miles(3), m miller (5), mihm(7), and przybilla(9).

2001- the all stars were: gasol(3), joe johnson(10), parker (28), arenas (31), and memo(38).

2002- the all stars were: ming(1), amare(9) butler(10), and boozer(34). other notable are nene(7), and prince(23).

2003- the all stars were: lebron(1), carmelo(3), bosh(4), wade(5), west(18), howard(29) and mo williams(47). other notable are darko(2), kaman(6), and hinrich(7).

i wont go further than this as most players who are good enough to stay in the league may yet achieve all star status. my point in accumulating all this is that if you want to have an all star, you have a 63% chance if you draft in the top 10. and 44% chance in the top 5. the other 37% and 56% is below the top 10 and top 5.

this knicks pick the jazz have wont fall below the 10 pick and has a high probability of being in the top 5. for those that want to use it as trade bait, look above and see what exactly you are trading. if not an all star lasting 10+ years than most certainly a player worth keeping on your team at least a few years.

[schneiderjazz]

NIce research. I don't think anyone wants to trade the Knicks pick, unless we get a superstar back. I find it funny that you have a better chance of drafting an all-star in the top 10 than in the top 5. Are you sure those numbers are correct? It's the other way around, no?

[schneiderjazz]

Nevermind. Now I get what you're saying. I just think the way you wrote it is a little confusing.
44% of all-star players come from the top 5.
63% come from the top 10.
The rest of the all-stars (37%) come from below the top 10.
Is this it? If it is, it would actually be better to know the percentage of players who are picked in the top 10 or in the top 5 that actually become all-stars.

[StocktonShorts]

First of all, I dislike using All-Star appearances to gauge player value. All-Star games are a popularity contest that happens 1/3 of the way into a season. Was Mo Williams really an All-Star last year? What about the year Memo made it as an injury replacement?

my point in accumulating all this is that if you want to have an all star, you have a 63% chance if you draft in the top 10

I'm not sure your math is saying what you want it to say. Based on the examples you gave, Top 5 picks ended up being All-Stars 53% of the time. Picks 6-10 ended up being All-Stars 22% of the time. Aggregated, 37.5% of top 10 picks were All-Stars at one point or another.

Personally I'd rather look at something like career PER, or even PER over the course of the rookie contract (first 3-4 years).

[MeestR]

Nevermind. Now I get what you're saying. I just think the way you wrote it is a little confusing.
44% of all-star players come from the top 5.
63% come from the top 10.
The rest of the all-stars (37%) come from below the top 10.
Is this it? If it is, it would actually be better to know the percentage of players who are picked in the top 10 or in the top 5 that actually become all-stars.

yes this is what i was trying to say. thanks for helping.

[majortripps69]

So how should we feel if the Knicks are sitting in the seventh spot in the East toward the end of the year? I just have a feeling we're going to wind up eating this. I pray we get lucky though...

[DelaneyRudd]

In the next draft number 7 is pretty good. A Pierce or Dirk quality player will be there, it's just a matter of drafting that particular player and not a Robert Traylor.

[StocktonShorts]

If I can find the time, I'll compile the winshares according to Basketball-Reference for the first 4 years of all top 15 picks for the past 10-15 years.

[HolyToledo]

The draft is a crap shoot especially in years where no dominant player comes out. Next years draft appears to have a highly touted point guard and 1-2 decent forwards. As such, the pick has more value now then it would after the draft. If the Jazz can trade Boozer along with NYK pick for a superstar then do it now. Jazz have to decide if they are rebuilding or making a championship run. If they are rebuilding then keep the pick, but if they are making a championship run then make a move with it now in a trade.

[MeestR]

with this pick, relative to recent drafts, the crap shoot has the odds of somewhere between 4 and 7 out of 10. im pretty sure if you had a di and you would win if it rolled an even or a 1, most here would take that bet.

[alphad0gz]

It will not be a lottery pick. NY lost 16 games last year by 5 or less. That's with Lee at center, Duhon playing huge minutes, no SG, no Curry, injured Gallinari (kid will be a star, and soon), the Marbury crap, and a new coach. NY will eek into the playoffs....guaranteed.....especially with Sessions (if they get him). Also looks like we will have Lee again.

Sessions(or Duhon)
Chandler
Gallinari
Lee
Darko(Curry)

No lotto for the Jazz

[Ming Kong!]

It will not be a lottery pick. NY lost 16 games last year by 5 or less. That's with Lee at center, Duhon playing huge minutes, no SG, no Curry, injured Gallinari (kid will be a star, and soon), the Marbury crap, and a new coach. NY will eek into the playoffs....guaranteed.....especially with Sessions (if they get him). Also looks like we will have Lee again.

Sessions(or Duhon)
Chandler
Gallinari
Lee
Darko(Curry)

No lotto for the Jazz

You forget that other teams also got better, and the Knicks also lost Nate Robinson. They were dead last in the weakest division last season, do you really think they made BIG changes this year? Big enough to climb 6 spots?

Cleveland1e 66 16 0.805 0.0 40-12 13-3 39-2 27-14 7-3 L 1
Boston2a 62 20 0.756 4.0 41-11 15-1 35-6 27-14 8-2 W 2
Orlando3se 59 23 0.720 7.0 37-15 14-2 32-9 27-14 5-5 W 1
Atlanta4x 47 35 0.573 19.0 30-22 11-5 31-10 16-25 5-5 L 1
Miami5x 43 39 0.524 23.0 28-24 9-7 28-13 15-26 5-5 W 1
Chicago7x 41 41 0.500 25.0 24-28 9-7 28-13 13-28 7-3 L 1
Philadelphia6x 41 41 0.500 25.0 25-27 6-10 24-17 17-24 4-6 W 1
Detroit8x 39 43 0.476 27.0 26-26 7-9 21-20 18-23 4-6 L 3
Indianao 36 46 0.439 30.0 23-29 7-9 25-16 11-30 6-4 W 1
Charlotteo 35 47 0.427 31.0 20-32 5-11 23-18 12-29 3-7 L 4
Milwaukeeo 34 48 0.415 32.0 21-31 4-12 22-19 12-29 3-7 L 1
New Jerseyo 34 48 0.415 32.0 23-29 8-8 19-22 15-26 4-6 L 1
Torontoo 33 49 0.402 33.0 22-30 6-10 18-23 15-26 6-4 W 3
New Yorko 32 50 0.390 34.0 20-32 5-11 20-21 12-29 3-7 W 1
Washingtono 19 63 0.232 47.0 10-42 1-15 13-28 6-35 3-7 L 2

[DelaneyRudd]

It will not be a lottery pick. NY lost 16 games last year by 5 or less. That's with Lee at center, Duhon playing huge minutes, no SG, no Curry, injured Gallinari (kid will be a star, and soon), the Marbury crap, and a new coach. NY will eek into the playoffs....guaranteed.....especially with Sessions (if they get him). Also looks like we will have Lee again.

Sessions(or Duhon)
Chandler
Gallinari
Lee
Darko(Curry)

No lotto for the Jazz

If only that post would fit in a regular sized sig!

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

You forget that other teams also got better, and the Knicks also lost Nate Robinson. They were dead last in the weakest division last season, do you really think they made BIG changes this year? Big enough to climb 6 spots?

Cleveland1e 66 16 0.805 0.0 40-12 13-3 39-2 27-14 7-3 L 1
Boston2a 62 20 0.756 4.0 41-11 15-1 35-6 27-14 8-2 W 2
Orlando3se 59 23 0.720 7.0 37-15 14-2 32-9 27-14 5-5 W 1
Atlanta4x 47 35 0.573 19.0 30-22 11-5 31-10 16-25 5-5 L 1
Miami5x 43 39 0.524 23.0 28-24 9-7 28-13 15-26 5-5 W 1
Chicago7x 41 41 0.500 25.0 24-28 9-7 28-13 13-28 7-3 L 1
Philadelphia6x 41 41 0.500 25.0 25-27 6-10 24-17 17-24 4-6 W 1
Detroit8x 39 43 0.476 27.0 26-26 7-9 21-20 18-23 4-6 L 3
Indianao 36 46 0.439 30.0 23-29 7-9 25-16 11-30 6-4 W 1
Charlotteo 35 47 0.427 31.0 20-32 5-11 23-18 12-29 3-7 L 4
Milwaukeeo 34 48 0.415 32.0 21-31 4-12 22-19 12-29 3-7 L 1
New Jerseyo 34 48 0.415 32.0 23-29 8-8 19-22 15-26 4-6 L 1
Torontoo 33 49 0.402 33.0 22-30 6-10 18-23 15-26 6-4 W 3
New Yorko 32 50 0.390 34.0 20-32 5-11 20-21 12-29 3-7 W 1
Washingtono 19 63 0.232 47.0 10-42 1-15 13-28 6-35 3-7 L 2

What he said. I feel very comfortable with the Knicks team even if they can pick up Miller or Sessions.

Jazz will be lotto bound.

[erudite23]

It will not be a lottery pick. NY lost 16 games last year by 5 or less. That's with Lee at center, Duhon playing huge minutes, no SG, no Curry, injured Gallinari (kid will be a star, and soon), the Marbury crap, and a new coach. NY will eek into the playoffs....guaranteed.....especially with Sessions (if they get him). Also looks like we will have Lee again.

Sessions(or Duhon)
Chandler
Gallinari
Lee
Darko(Curry)

No lotto for the Jazz

Not sure where you've been hiding while we've had this out in the Knicks Pick thread, but just an FYI.

84% of RealGM users recently polled believe that the New York Knicks have at least one of the 3 worst rosters in the league, with over half of those contending that it is clearly the worst the NBA has to offer.

Another way to look at it would be that what you said is enough of a joke that, if it were shorter, would currenlty be residing in someone's signature.

Have a nice day. See you in Secaucas.

[majortripps69]

What he said. I feel very comfortable with the Knicks team even if they can pick up Miller or Sessions.

Jazz will be lotto bound.

I don't feel comfortable at all. There is no way Mike D'Antoni sits back and tanks this season. The Knicks will be competitive and will either make the playoffs or get real damn close. I just don't see us getting a top 8 pick, I don't. By that time you're almost always into the role players category unless you happen to get a diamond from coal.

Seriously, our first round drafting outside of Ronnie Brewer and Deron Williams has been crap. The jury is still out on Koufos and Maynor. I came across this link on KSL showing draft history and what we drafted and what we could have drafted. It's makes me sick. You can say hind sight is 20/20, but maybe our scouting is crap.

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=139&sid=6833021

Seriously? We take Kris Humphries and Kirk Snyder and we could have Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin or even Jameer Nelson instead? Curtis Borchardt over Tayshaun Prince or even Boozer? Raul Lopez over Tony parker or Gerald Wallace?

[alphad0gz]

84% of RealGM users recently polled believe that the New York Knicks have at least one of the 3 worst rosters in the league, with over half of those contending that it is clearly the worst the NBA has to offer.

Fact: 90% of realgm posters (including NY fans) are morons when it comes to ball. There is a anti NY bias that is very tangible. I'm not bothered by it since it is based on the city and the people from the city, and I am not. Clearly, they are basing their opinions on something other than watching the Knicks. As I recall, we had no trouble handling you guys in our first meeting. Feel free to bookmark this and visit.

[StocktonShorts]

Do we really need two threads for baiting Knicks fans?

[Fido]

I came across this link on KSL showing draft history and what we drafted and what we could have drafted. It's makes me sick. You can say hind sight is 20/20, but maybe our scouting is crap.

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=139&sid=6833021

Seriously? We take Kris Humphries and Kirk Snyder and we could have Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin or even Jameer Nelson instead? Curtis Borchardt over Tayshaun Prince or even Boozer? Raul Lopez over Tony parker or Gerald Wallace?

This kind of thinking is flawed. All it shows is that the Jazz don't have a crystal ball. With Raul Lopez for example--he had certain things that made him special--but blew out his knee before ever appearing in Utah. Who knows what he could have been? These kinds of stories also don't take into account decisions made due to roster/position/cap/team need issues. For example, the Jazz looked at Boozer quite a bit before deciding to take a gamble on the slipping Borchardt to fill a need at center. They knew it was a gamble due to his injury history and it ultimately didn't pay off. You could put this kind of list out for every team out there.

[MeestR]

ok, fans are morons. we all want our teams to win. but this is a jazz forum, not a knicks forum. there was no baiting in my original post. it was assuming the knicks would fail to make the playoffs. it is a high probability. but there is always a chance. teams themselves wouldnt play the games if they didnt believe they would win. fans are different. we like to speculate, cheer, bet and try to predict the outcomes. the fact is not that posters are morons, but that most all stars are picked in the top ten. while just over a third are picked outside the top ten. sure there are occasional busts, but those are far more likely in the 2nd round than the 1st round and more likely still outside the lottery than within.