New Jersey has an interest in Davis

[CelticFaninLBC]

If there's all these minutes of pt, as some suggest, then signing a big with the LLE shouldn't be a problem.

[sully00]

If there's all these minutes of pt, as some suggest, then signing a big with the LLE shouldn't be a problem.

Seeing how that is going to Daniels it would be.

And name a big man you can get with 2 mil? Patrick O'Bryant or Mikki Moore, of course they are as good as Glen Davis anyhow.

[greenmachine_2849]

I think Doc would laugh at you if you told him he would have to keep KG muzzled on the bench by only playing him 27 minutes a game.

As opposed to the 31 mpg he played last season? It's not like it would be a revolutionary shift in roles for Garnett, just a few less minutes per night. Maybe he subs out one minute earlier during the 1st and 3rd quarters than he normally does, and he checks in one minute later during the 2nd and 4th quarters. It might take a little getting used to at first (and it probably wouldn't be the easiest sell for Rivers), but Garnett would adjust. But over the course of 82 games, playing four less minutes per night would equal about 320 less minutes, or about the equivalent of ten fewer games (at 31 minutes per game). Which, if Garnett ends up averaging 31 mpg next season, he will likely miss 10-15 games anyway due to injury if history is any indicator. And what happens during those 10-15 games (if Davis isn't here)? Play Wallace and Perkins 40+ minutes? Making already injury-prone players play excessive minutes does not seem like a recipe for success.

[TheOGJabroni]

As our roster stands now, I see no reason a rotation like this couldn't work out:

-Players Minutes by Position-

Perkins 32 / Wallace 16
Garnett 32 / Wallace 8 / Davis 8
Pierce 32 / Daniels 16
Allen 32 / House 16
Rondo 36 / Daniels 12

-SUBSTITUTION PATTERNS-

Qtr:------1st/3rd (same)--------------2nd/4th (same)
Min:-----12-----6------4------/----12-----10-----8-----4
---------KP----KP-----RW-----/----KP-----KP-----KP-----RW
---------KG----KG-----KG-----/----GD----GD-----RW----KG
---------PP----PP------PP-----/----MD----MD-----MD----PP
---------RA----EH-----EH-----/----EH-----RA-----RA----RA
---------RR----MD-----MD----/----RR-----RR-----RR-----RR


*NOTICE*
*** The only time none of the Big 3 will be on the court, is from the start of the 2nd quarter, but will only last a couple of minutes.
*** Whenever House is on the court, Daniels or Rondo are as well, Eddie will not have to be the primary ball handler but can guard the PG on D while playing with Marquis, and we will go small for that same two minutes that none of the Big 3 is on the court and Rondo and Eddie are the guards.
*** Baby is able to see some minutes, he will not be buried on the bench, especially considering the foul trouble big men get in. He can easily slide into replace whoever is in any foul trouble that game. Along with this, Sheed still sees apx. 24 MPG.
*** Marquis sees 28 MPG off the bench, but in a game where we are behind or for any reason really, Paul can come back in before that 4 minute mark and play some extra minutes as needed.
*** Sheed, KG, Pierce, Ray, and Rondo are the finishers.

[Gomes3PC]

If the Lakers can get away with their 4th big man being Josh Powell/DJ Mbenga, we can get away with someone else if BBD signs for big money. KG, Perk and Sheed will take up about 90 minutes per game total, however you choose to slice it. That doesn't leave oodles of time. Now, I'd like to get BBD back for injury insurance, but it's not an absolute MUST.

[greenmachine_2849]

If the Lakers can get away with their 4th big man being Josh Powell/DJ Mbenga, we can get away with someone else if BBD signs for big money. KG, Perk and Sheed will take up about 90 minutes per game total, however you choose to slice it. That doesn't leave oodles of time. Now, I'd like to get BBD back for injury insurance, but it's not an absolute MUST.

It's not an absolute MUST only if you are pretty confident in the health of the other three big men. In the past three seasons, none of Garnett, Perkins, or Wallace have been able to play a full 80+ game season. Not even once. I have a very difficult time picturing a season where we don't need that 4th big to step into that 3rd big role (due to injury) at least 10-15 games during the regular season. And that is being extremely optimistic. I could see Perkins, Wallace, and Garnett missing a combined 40 games next year (heck, they missed more than that last year and are a year older). Having Robert Swift as the fourth big is just writing off the season before it starts, because you cannot go into the season assuming full, healthy seasons out of three players who have provided little evidence in recent memory to suggest they are capable of it.

[ryaningf]

...

There really is not compelling argument to spend 4 or 5 million dollars on BBD when you have Scal on the roster. If anything Scal is the better team defender. So really like I said I imagine DA will sign and trade BBD.

Not a compelling argument? Wha? You spent multiple paragraphs (which I didn't quote) comparing each player's stats, but you pretty much conveniently ignored the BIGGEST difference between the two players--Baby can play center, Scal cannot. THAT is the compelling argument right there, amongst the other compelling ones put forth by Sully and ParticleMan.

Equating Scal and Baby is a farce of gigantic proportions. And arguing that Scal makes Baby redundant, besides being incorrect on its face, also completely ignores the fact that Scal's expiring contract is going to be shopped heavily in the next 9 months and that even if he isn't traded this season he won't be on the team in 2010 onwards. You want to push aside an improving young big man for that? Crazy talk.

[sully00]

If the Lakers can get away with their 4th big man being Josh Powell/DJ Mbenga, we can get away with someone else if BBD signs for big money. KG, Perk and Sheed will take up about 90 minutes per game total, however you choose to slice it. That doesn't leave oodles of time. Now, I'd like to get BBD back for injury insurance, but it's not an absolute MUST.

You do realize that Pau Gasol played 3000 mins last year and is 28 years old Bynum missed 32 games. It was not a 3 man or 4 man rotation (which should be clear by using two guys names) it was a garbage rotation that Gasol and Odom did a great job of carrying but it was not a good situation.

Kevin Garnett played 1700 mins last season. The biggest asset Baby has even bigger than his jumper is that he can keep KG from having to play center if either of Perk or Sheed go down.

If someone throws the full MLE at Davis you aren't going to resign him, at almost 7 mil a year you can do something else, but at 4 or 5 mil you can prevent a lot of problems.

I also disagree with the idea that we can't win if we sustain an injury that is what adding Sheed is supposed to address. I think if this team had Wallace last season then they would have at least gotten to the Finals. So sure you can get by with Scal playing 10 mpg instead having Davis if everything goes right, but if it doesn't you just spent 80 million bucks and have Scal playing 32 mins a night.

[CelticFaninLBC]

If there's all these minutes of pt, as some suggest, then signing a big with the LLE shouldn't be a problem.

Seeing how that is going to Daniels it would be.

And name a big man you can get with 2 mil? Patrick O'Bryant or Mikki Moore, of course they are as good as Glen Davis anyhow.

the economy is dragging down salaries this year, so I can see Joe Smith, Drew Gooden or Tim Thomas, if he's released, coming in for the LLE and a great shot at a ring.

[Celts17Pride]

Look, the Celtics need a fourth big guy with Scalabrine being the 5th big guy. Big Baby is the best at what is out there because of his relatively lost cost and upside. Big Baby knows the offensive system and the defense and he has proven he can step right in if someone gets hurt. I fully expect Big Baby wearing the green next season.

Anyone who thinks the Celtics don't need a quality fourth big obviously wasn't watching the games last year. You can't try to get a big guy through buyouts because sometimes the pickings are slim (Mikki Moore). The Celtics need a resigned Big Baby.

Later on resign a healthly Powe and the Celtics will have quality big guy depth coming out their ears.

[sweatdog]

There's very few quality minutes for BBD... Perkins played 29.6 mpg last year, Sheed 32, KG 31, and barring foul trouble these 3 should play all 96 minutes versus very good teams. Perhaps you think Kobe, Gasol and Artest will only play 30 min. a piece tho when Boston faces LA tho???

There's going to be quite a few blowouts at home, so KG can get plenty of rest then... They can sign someone like Tim Thomas who can fill in for 5-15 minutes in tough games where there's foul trouble.

What this analysis assumes is that all 3 guys will play 82 games. Remember, those minutes per game averages are ONLY IN THE GAMES THEY ACTUALLY PLAY IN. it doesn't account for the fact that they miss games due to injury, rest, whatever.

A better way to look at it is that there are 82*48*2 = 7872 total minutes at the 4 and 5 spot over the course of the season. If we assume that each of our 3 guys plays 70 games (which might be optimistic given recent history), and each plays 30 mins per game (about their average), then that is 6300 minutes between Perk, KG, and Sheed. That leaves 1572 minutes for a 4th string PF/C. THAT IS A LOT. In minutes per game, that is about 20 mpg, assuming that our 4th PF/C actually plays in all 82 games. It is more if they don't.

I think 20 mpg is not something we want left to someone like Scal or some other team's castoff. We need a quality player there. It is worth $4mil per year to me to have a quality player like BBD for 20 mins/gm. And during the playoffs, it is injury insurance. If one of our 3 goes down and we have to play Scal, we are sunk. If we can throw BBD in there, I think we're still OK.

Damn, that was an interesting and scientific way of laying it out there. Great post. And I agree with each of your points. Signing BBD for a hypothetical $4mil to play 4th big behind 3 excellent bigs is not ideal - but ideal signings can be few and far between for a GM. I agree that BBD is a must-keep, assuming all else stays the same.

[sully00]

If there's all these minutes of pt, as some suggest, then signing a big with the LLE shouldn't be a problem.

Seeing how that is going to Daniels it would be.

And name a big man you can get with 2 mil? Patrick O'Bryant or Mikki Moore, of course they are as good as Glen Davis anyhow.

the economy is dragging down salaries this year, so I can see Joe Smith, Drew Gooden or Tim Thomas, if he's released, coming in for the LLE and a great shot at a ring.

Doesn't address the fact that we don't have the LLE to offer it goes to Daniels but that is fair. There is a good chance that one of those 3 guys will end up getting 2 mil or less. Smith would be fine, he can't play center but so be it, the other two have issues (Gooden had a chance to be Big Baby in CLE and got shipped out on a rail) but I will give that it solves the problem for this year. But now you need two bigs next year. You don't build up your roster you are just loading up on rejects every year.

I think one of the reasons they are trying to S&T for Daniels is to keep the LLE for next season. This team may have to use the MLE to replace Ray Allen. There are risks with Davis, who would have blinked at giving Powe 4 or 5 mil last year in this situation and look how that worked out. But they know who he is and if they didn't think it would work out they would have either packaged him up or let him go. Not asking for a comparable player and a first round pick.

Paying 4 or 5 mil next season for Glen Davis is not that great, but still having him around for that kind of money in two years may well look like Kendrick Perkins does now. You will have a guy who is a back up but allows you to continue to start and feature guys like Garnett and Wallace.

[GuyClinch]

Not a compelling argument? Wha? You spent multiple paragraphs (which I didn't quote) comparing each player's stats, but you pretty much conveniently ignored the BIGGEST difference between the two players--Baby can play center, Scal cannot

We will have Robert Swift or some other stiff as our third center. You do NOT need three quality centers on an NBA roster. Scal and BBD serve the same function in the offense - they spread the floor and hit outside shots.

If you keep BBD your sinking money into a guy who won't play much. Yes guys get injured but its unrealistic to expect to have a great backup at every spot. What about the backup for Rondo? You want to have THREE backups for our center but only one for Rondo? And that guy isn't even a PG?

Your plan sucks..

Pete

[ryaningf]

Not a compelling argument? Wha? You spent multiple paragraphs (which I didn't quote) comparing each player's stats, but you pretty much conveniently ignored the BIGGEST difference between the two players--Baby can play center, Scal cannot

We will have Robert Swift or some other stiff as our third center. You do NOT need three quality centers on an NBA roster. Scal and BBD serve the same function in the offense - they spread the floor and hit outside shots.

If you keep BBD your sinking money into a guy who won't play much. Yes guys get injured but its unrealistic to expect to have a great backup at every spot. What about the backup for Rondo? You want to have THREE backups for our center but only one for Rondo? And that guy isn't even a PG?

Your plan sucks..

Pete

Well, your plan is stupid

Seriously, though, you make a good point--in general--about not needing 3 quality centers. I agree with that. But I think you fail to realize that Wallace is not only backup center, he's also backup power forward. He can't be two things at once--meaning we'll only have one good reserve at center or power forward at any given time--ergo, we need another quality backup at 4/5, one ideally who can play both positions. That's where Baby comes in (and Scal goes out) and that's why my plan doesn't suck. So there.

We're not sinking money into a guy that doesn't play--that's what happened to Scal these last 4 years and it's ironic that you use him as your argument as to why Baby shouldn't be resigned. Baby will play, and as Particle Man pointed out so mathematically, it's quite probable that he'll play alot of minutes next season, probably upwards of 20 minutes a night...

Rondo's backup is a whole different story. First, we're talking about one position, not two (Baby backs up 4/5). By simple mathematics, that makes Baby more important than Rondo's backup. Also, Rondo is going to play many more minutes next season than our starting center or starting power forward. Again, that makes his backup less important. Third, though they may not be 'real' point guards in the classical sense, we *do* have guys who *can* play backup point--House/Pruitt/TA/Daniels/Hudson(?)/even Giddens--that's like 6 players potentially who can backup Rondo right now. How many backup centers do we have? 1. And 2 backup power forwards. We need more depth at the 4/5 and we need more quality depth. Backup point guard is down on the priority list--big time.

[sully00]

ryaningf

It isn't worth it. Take it for what it is worth, Pete is saying that Robert Swift and Brian Scalabrine is the superior plan. How could he possibly be wrong?

If that is his opinion what is the point in arguing with him?

He hates Glen Davis he would take Vin Baker, drunk and in jail, over him, end of story.

[ryaningf]

ryaningf

It isn't worth it. Take it for what it is worth, Pete is saying that Robert Swift and Brian Scalabrine is the superior plan. How could he possibly be wrong?

If that is his opinion what is the point in arguing with him?

He hates Glen Davis he would take Vin Baker, drunk and in jail, over him, end of story.

Thanks for the heads up, Sully. I like Pete, but he tends to get entrenched in his point of view (like we all do, really) and sometimes it's hard to get through--but every message board is like that. I don't really expect to change too many minds here The fun is in making the argument...

[CelticFaninLBC]

Sully,

Yes, I assume Daniels is added via trade..

Due to the economy and shrinking cap, there's several decent bigs, who should be available for the MLE next year, e.g. Brad Miller, Camby, Jermaine O'Neal, Haslem & Haywood to name a few.. So there's plenty of options this year and next, if BBD doesn't return. Also, Camby could be bought out by LAC and added late this season..

I think Ray will get extended for a couple years, but Daniels will get a ton of minutes as Ray ages..