Youngblood wrote:What's the story on these guys? I'm just a casual fan but even I'd hate to see us get blindsided in a Halladay deal, I love that guy! Who here can give me some quick scouting reports on those Phillies prospects?
The guys I'm most interested in knowing about are:
Happ - Isn't he something like 7-1 in the majors with an excellent strikeout to walks ratio?
Drabek - I heard he had tommy-john surgery? Isn't that bad?
Taylor - I've only heard good things, seems like another BJ Upton, would love to get him.
Carrasco - seems medicre, i have no idea though.
Donald - also seems mediocre, but again, i have no idea.
Brown - what's his first name? what's the story on him?
Also, what do you guys think will happen? Can Drabek and Taylor be in a Halladay deal?
Happ: Mid-end of the rotation starter who is playing over his head and getting quite lucky IMO. He isn't striking a lot of people out and has been a flyball pitcher all season long which in combination usually leads to struggle but he has somehow had a lot of success. Dont buy into his current record or sub 3.00 ERA...his stuff isn't overpowering and his splits (K/IP, GB/FB ratio) suggest he will fall back down to earth. I also believe he'd take a big hit moving to the AL East where he'd have to face NYY/BOS/TB multiple times a year.
Drabek: Yes, he did have TJ surgery but he is 100% back and hasn't shown any effect of it hindering him in any way. Since coming back he has taken off big time. He has front of the rotation stuff: Plus fastball (96mph), plus curveball, and a solid changeup. He looked very strong at the Futures Game a few weeks ago impressed pretty much everyone while showing an apparently clean and easy delivery. His father (Doug Drabek) won a Cy Young award in 1990 so his bloodlines are strong and some people are saying that he really looks like a major leaguer and that its obvious he's been around the game. His biggest concern since he was drafted out of HS was that he had a knack for being a bit of a hot-head and a show-off on the mound, that and his TJ surgery. He appears to have answered both and is performing well at AA at only 21 years old.
Taylor:BJ Upton? Michael Taylor is 6'6 250lbs LOL. He is a very good hitter with pop who for his size is a pretty decent athlete. He currently plays RF but most believe he is a LF in the majors. He tore up AA this year and was just recently promoted to AAA where he has gotten off to a decent start.
Carrasco:Strong stuff (better than Happ for sure) but he apparently is a bit of a head-case. He's still young being only 22 and in AAA and his overall peripherals (K/9, K/BB) are pretty strong even with the struggles he's had. He's a typical boom/bust guy, if he puts it all together he has the stuff to be a #3 if not #2 starter. He was a BA Top 100 at the beginning of this year but his stock has obviously dropped.
Donald:Has hit better and better each of the past 3 seasons (A, A+, AA) but he has had a terrible season in AAA this year, although it should be noted that he had surgery on his knee which some people believe is the cause for his current failure. He started the year as a BA Top 100 (ranked ahead of our own Brett Cecil) after he put up an .889 OPS last season in AA with a .391 OBP and 14 HRs. He's a SS/3B so he's got some value to us considering we need both a SS and 3B to replace Scutaro/Rolen. Like Carrasco his stock is obviously down but you could easily be buying low on him....as a #3 or #4 piece in a potential trade I like Donald.
Brown:His name is Dominic Brown. The story on him is that he is currently their highest ranked prospect by BA (even ahead of Drabek and Taylor). Like Taylor he also currently plays RF but the difference is that he has a Daryl Strawberry type build and should be able to stick in RF unlike Taylor (Brown has a better arm). He is also more athletic than Taylor. Because of all of that he has more upside than Taylor, but he is also 2 years younger (he's 21) and is currently only in A+ where he has an .877 OPS. Brown has also shown a strong BB/K rate, stronger than Taylor showed at the same level.
The Taylor/Brown argument is your classic conundrum of whether you want the safer, more proven player (Taylor) or the younger, less proven but more toolsy and higher-upside player (Brown).
BA did a mid-season Top 25 prospects ranking a few weeks ago (basically ranking the top prospects as of today with this year's performance) and Philly's Top 3 of Brown/Taylor/Drabek all made the list with Brown being the highest ranked at #17, Taylor being ranked #23, and Drabek being ranked #24 so as of today all three are upper-tier prospects. Realistically the Jays will want Drabek for sure because trading Halladay means we have to get a top-end pitching prospect back which we dont have in our system plus one of Brown or Taylor. According to our offer to them (Happ+Drabek+Brown) we would prefer Brown but at the same time Philly probably values him higher as well.