Boozer vs. Millsap

[polskikrol3]

So first off don't make the mistake of thinking that with this post I am saying that the Jazz are better sans Boozer because he is obviously a very talented OFFENSIVE player. But my intent here is to try and show that if he is gone and Millsap is your option all hope is not lost.

So I can only compare #s at similar points in their careers. So here are the first 3 years of each player.
Boozer-
Yr1: P/40-15.8, R/40-11.9, PER-16.9. 81 games played
Yr2: P/40-17.9, R/40-13.2, PER-20.8. 75 games played
Yr3 w/Jazz: P/40-20.5, R/40-10.3, PER-19.2. 51 games played

Millsap-
Yr1: P/40-15.2, R/40-11.5, PER-17.6. 82 games played
Yr2: P/40-15.5, R/40-10.8, PER-15.9. 82 games played
Yr3: P/40-18.0, R/40-11.4, PER-18.7. 76 games played

Rookie years are very similar. 2nd year Boozer's numbers were incredible for a second year player; that would be why the Jazz decided he was "worth" 6 years and 72 million he got. But his #'s, while better than 'Saps, are only 2 points and 3 rebounds better. And then again in Year 3 the #'s are very similar with Millsap obviously having a huge advantage in durability.

So in these comparisons the Jazz seem ok in my mind. If Millsap continues to improve than the team got a good deal in comparison to what they paid for Boozer 5 years ago.

Is the team better with Boozer on it than not? Yes of course. But Millsap with his #'s at 4 yrs 32 million is great compared to Boozer and his 6 years 72 million at similar points in their careers.

[HolyToledo]

I dont think talent wise they are that different as Millsap a better defender but Boozer clearly better post up player. Neither one is a very good passer. At the end of the game, you would want Boozer because he can make the needed shot, Millsap cannot. I really think neither one will be much better than what they are right now. I think they are what you saw last couple of years. Both would be better with a center that can block shots and Jazz dont have one. So Millsap, especially considering attitude, is a better bargain than Boozer but I would not have kept either one as they are not the type of players that would be starters on a chamionship team unless they were your 3rd or 4th best starter. They are getting paid like they are your #2 best starter so I would have let both go away.

[QuantumMacgyver]

Thank you polskikrol3 for bringing some honest, statistical sense to this board!!!!! Seriously thank you. What a relief it is to finally see someone back something up for a change. Great work. I look forward to your future posts.

[polskikrol3]

What #2 starter on any competing team makes only 8 million a year? Boozer gets paid like a #2, but Millsap sure doesnt.

And im not saying this Jazz team is a Championship type team yet. But all I was pointing out is that for the money Millsap is the better choice as their stats are not that far apart. And you had to keep one of the 2 long term. The team couldn't stand to lose both long term. For the money/contribution ratio Millsap was the better choice.

[polskikrol3]

Thank you polskikrol3 for bringing some honest, statistical sense to this board!!!!! Seriously thank you. What a relief it is to finally see someone back something up for a change. Great work. I look forward to your future posts.

Thanks Quantum!

[StocktonShorts]

Winshares & more for each (from basketball-reference.com):

Boozer:

Code: Select all

Season    Age  Tm  Lg   G    MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg  OWS  DWS   WS
2002-03    21 CLE NBA  81  2049 17.9 .577 .536 10.8 22.7 16.6  9.3  1.5  1.7 12.8 17.1  114  105  4.3  1.8  6.1
2003-04    22 CLE NBA  75  2592 20.8 .567 .524  9.8 26.8 18.3 10.3  1.5  1.5 11.6 20.0  113  101  6.1  3.4  9.5
2004-05    23 UTA NBA  51  1772 19.2 .560 .521  9.6 22.7 16.0 15.9  1.3  1.1 14.5 24.6  108  108  2.6  1.3  4.0
2005-06    24 UTA NBA  33  1025 21.4 .585 .549  8.6 25.3 16.9 18.0  1.6  0.6 13.1 23.9  113  105  2.1  1.2  3.4
2006-07    25 UTA NBA  74  2557 24.1 .588 .561 11.2 29.9 20.6 16.6  1.4  0.7 12.8 26.5  114  104  6.4  3.4  9.8
2007-08    26 UTA NBA  81  2827 21.9 .581 .547  8.6 27.7 18.2 14.2  1.8  1.2 12.5 26.6  112  103  6.0  4.3 10.3
2008-09    27 UTA NBA  37  1197 17.2 .523 .490 11.1 27.3 19.2 11.4  1.7  0.5 12.1 24.4  105  105  0.9  1.8  2.7
Career            NBA 432 14019 20.7 .572 .536 10.0 26.4 18.1 13.4  1.5  1.1 12.7 23.3  112  104 28.5 17.3 45.8


Millsap:

Code: Select all

Season    Age  Tm  Lg   G   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS   WS
2006-07    21 UTA NBA  82 1472 17.6 .571 .526 15.1 19.8 17.5  6.7  2.4  4.2 16.1 17.8  112  102 2.4 2.3  4.7
2007-08    22 UTA NBA  82 1702 16.1 .548 .504 12.1 20.8 16.5  7.0  2.2  3.5 12.6 18.1  112  103 2.5 2.8  5.3
2008-09    23 UTA NBA  76 2290 18.6 .576 .534 13.1 21.0 17.0  9.8  1.8  2.5 12.6 20.0  116  105 4.5 3.3  7.9
Career            NBA 240 5464 17.6 .566 .523 13.3 20.6 17.0  8.1  2.1  3.3 13.5 18.8  114  103 9.4 8.4 17.8


[StocktonShorts]

The frame is a bit too narrow, but the last column (WS) is the key stat here, and I think Millsap's 4.7, 5.3 and 7.9 compare well with Boozer's 6.1, 9.5, 4.0 from his first 3 years. (That 4.0 was from his first year in Utah when he played 51 games ).

Will Millsap ever match Boozer's two best years (2006-07 and 07-08)? Hard to say. But I'd bet that he averages or bests Boozer's Win Shares over the length of the contract he just signed.

One thing I like about Win Shares are that they don't excuse a player's injuries.

[polskikrol3]

The frame is a bit too narrow, but the last column (WS) is the key stat here, and I think Millsap's 4.7, 5.3 and 7.9 compare well with Boozer's 6.1, 9.5, 4.0 from his first 3 years. (That 4.0 was from his first year in Utah when he played 51 games ).

Will Millsap ever match Boozer's two best years (2006-07 and 07-08)? Hard to say. But I'd bet that he averages or bests Boozer's Win Shares over the length of the contract he just signed.

One thing I like about Win Shares are that they don't excuse a player's injuries.

Good stuff there Prole. Didn't know much about win share but its good to know now. And I agree that Millsap may never have the 2 really great peak years that Boozer had, but Millsap is really not that far behind Boozer for 2/3 the price.

[qman]

Productionwise Millsap hasn't been that bad. But to say that Boozer isn't far more talented is lie.

Not only is Boozer more skilled in the post, with a mid-range jumper, a skilled finisher with a effective post game he is just physically taller, longer and naturally stronger.

Mental preparation and hard work and make up for a lot but in the end Boozer's best will always be better than Millsap's.

That said I believe that Millsap can be a part of championship rotation- he is just isn't the starter unless he playing next to a young Shaq.

[StocktonShorts]

It's also worth pointing out that these stats either ignore defensive contributions altogether or don't measure them well.

[QuantumMacgyver]

Why can't all threads be like this one? This is a dream come true. Good, intelligent conversation about real, backed topics. Sigh... so refreshing.

[GP]

This topic has already been decided by the Jazz FO, whats the point? The jazz choose millsap and they feel he can be a player of similar caliber, I disagree, but now we have millsap for the foreseeable future. These stats are nice and may make some people feel better, but I'll wait until we've seen how millsap reacts to being a full time starter for an entire year before making any judgment.

[qman]

Is Sap can so a 50% set mid range jumper to us next season coupled with the rest of his normal game I would very happy with him. I just don't know if we will ever see it.

[Neon Black]

i thought Millsap averaged about 16 ppg as a starter...am i wrong? too lazy and pissed about my car being stoled to care right now.

boozer is blessed with more natural talent and a better PF body.

millsap is not as naturally gifted but actually hustles and plays with fire.

so eff boozer, he's been given everything and takes it all for granted. Millsap has been, so far, the exact opposite. hope he stays that way.

[outerspacefella]

It's good to have some stats; but as any other team sport, basketball is not only stats.
Iverson always got huge stats; he rarely made his team better though.

[outerspacefella]

Millsap's not Boozer. He could be similar stat wise contributor; but he's not the same talent.
The main point here, IMHO, is that Boozer will not take the Jazz to the next level anyway, so it's not wise to pay him the reported 14M starting salary he was demanding. Millsap/Okur/Koufos rotation can certainly contribute the same as Boozer.

[OC Jazzfan]

While Boozer is clearly more flashy and certainly louder, I think that Milsap will prove to be one of those players who helps make his teammates better through effort and heart. If he can develop a solid midrange jumper, which is not out of the question by any means, he'll be a very good all around player. Boozer on the other hand, IMO, is the opposite because he forces his teammates to attempt to cover for his deficiencies with extra effort on their part. Booz and Memo together create a huge defensive void, whereas hopefully with Milsap that void will be somewhat reduced.

Boozer , again IMO, is not going to get any better than he is now and in all likelihood will continue to struggle with chronic injuries to his labia and clitoris. Hopefully, whichever team he is eventually traded to will have a very talented gynecologist on staff. Otherwise he will continue the trend of missing large percentages of each season trying to fully recover from maladies such as "abnormally puffy left labia with slight redness" and "shriveled jerkylike clitoris syndrome". Either of which can easily sideline a franchise power forward for at least 50 games.

[David Ginola 14]

Now Boozer is better than Millsap....
We hope that tomorrow Millsap will be better than Boozer...
But Boozer in the last 3 years was a great PF...

[red4hf]

I think anyone who thinks Millsap is, or ever will be, on the same level as Boozer is just kidding themselves.......

Millsap is what he is, he hustles, he goes after offensive boards, he can score in transition, but that's it....... He's not going to suddenly grow another 3 inches, he's always going to be undersized, and he's always going to struggle against bigger, more talented players......

He's going to put up good stats, partly because of his hustle, and partly because of the Jazz system, but he's not going to replace Boozer........

Boozer, when healthy, which admittedly he has had a problem with, is one of the top 5 Power Forwards, Millsap even when playing his best, doesn't approach that level.......

[erudite23]

It's good to have some stats; but as any other team sport, basketball is not only stats.
Iverson always got huge stats; he rarely made his team better though.

....and the stats actually bore that out, btw.