This year's Kings vs. last year's playoff teams

[pillwenney]

Wow the point I made is EVEN more valid now that I see Portland was a #4 seed with a team with less experience as the Kings this year.

Here was the total # of experience for the starters for Port. team Blake 6yrs (29), Roy 3rd (25), Batum Rookie (19), Aldridge 2nd year (24), Oden Rookie (19). A total of 13 years of NBA experience for the starters of the #4 seed last year. The Blazers have a team average team age of 24.7 this year (so in reality was a below 24 in the playoffs last year).

The Kings this year have Evans R (19), Kmart 5 years (26), Noc 5years (29), Thompson 2nd (24), and Hawes 3rd (21). So the Kings starters this year have 16years of experience after this season starts. The Kings have average team age of 24.5 this year.

The Kings this year have more experience than the Blazers did last year and they finished #4 in the conference. My point is the Kings are not too young or too inexperienced or is it unrealistic to be .500+ and make the playoffs.

There are really the Spurs, Lakers, Charlotte, Portland, and Denver are most likely playoff bound the other 3 spots are up for grabs. Considering Houston is too injured, Dallas/Phoenix/Utah scare no one, Clippers/Memphis/Kings/OKC/Golden State are all too young.

Someone has to make the playoffs who doesn't belong and Evans has proven to be a gamechanger at every level. I'm just saying we will be in the middle of the pack this year.

1) Roy is a much better leader of a team than Kevin is.
2)You left off Pryzbilla and Outlaw. Outlaw played more minutes than Batum, and Pryzbilla started most of their games last year.
3) They have more experience together.
4) They have more talent
5) They have a coach proven to be successful
6) We will not be better than Utah or Dallas this year, and probably not Phoenix. Phoenix may be breaking down and may not make the playoffs, but they'll still be better than us.

The sumer league is no big deal is a myth, Anthony Randolph was invited to team USA right after scoring 42 points in summer league (avgd 23/8). Blake Griffin avgd a 20/12 and was declared a instant best player and MVP. The current Kings Evans and Thompson avgd 19 this year, and Donte avgd 20+ last year. The last 2 games when Evans and Thompson learned to play together JT threw up 26/10.
This team has more talent than people give them credit. That is all I am saying.

Remember Chris Paul's, DWilliams, and DRose have been close to top 4 draft picks and had teams go from last to playoffs in the last decade.

No. No it's not. If summer league were a good indicator of anything, Marcus Banks would be an all-star every year by now.

Randolph and Griffin are both highly touted for much more than the summer league--more importantly, for much, much more than summer league stats. Summer league is for looking at developing skills. Trying to to really base projections for a player off of summer league stats is consistently proven to be unreliable. People like Randolph for the skills he has shown and what he showed in flashes near the end of the season. People like Griffin because they always liked Griffin. He was seen as the best prospect in the draft for a reason.

Deron sucked his first year and he was older than Tyreke. He led the Jazz towards nothing as a rookie. Rose's Bulls wouldn't have made the playoffs without the midseason trade, were better than we were last year before they even got Rose, and oh yeah--Rose is probably a better prospect than Tyreke. He was #1 pick as opposed to #4, and that was in a much better draft. Paul would be a valid example except for two things: 1) He is a better prospect than Tyreke. That's not a knock on Tyreke. Paul is a once in a generation PG, and 2) Paul didn't carry his team to the playoffs in his rookie year. And this was when he was a year older than Tyreke is now.

[sd_kingsfan]

I know I'm new here and all, but isn't it rediculous to think that our starters points per game means anything? I'm a big kings fan, annd would love playoffs, but to think they will make it because how many points players are projected to score is a little silly isn't it? Also do we really think that we will have 5 starters in double digit scoring? Including JT with 18/10. I have read CDT3 before and know he is a big JT fan, but really 18/10/1? Couldn't even do that in VSL.... Am I crazy for thinking all this?

My projections (and this means nothing towards the win column)
Evans- 15/4/4
Martin- 24/3/4
Nocioni- 12/6
JT- 13/8
Hawes- 15.5/8/2

[deNIEd]

The sumer league is no big deal is a myth, Anthony Randolph was invited to team USA right after scoring 42 points in summer league (avgd 23/8). Blake Griffin avgd a 20/12 and was declared a instant best player and MVP. The current Kings Evans and Thompson avgd 19 this year, and Donte avgd 20+ last year. The last 2 games when Evans and Thompson learned to play together JT threw up 26/10.
This team has more talent than people give them credit. That is all I am saying.

Remember Chris Paul's, DWilliams, and DRose have been close to top 4 draft picks and had teams go from last to playoffs in the last decade.

Summer league is a myth and you're delusional for thinking otherwise.

Randolph received an invite no solely because of his summer league play, but instead his progression last year and his unbelievable potential.

Griffin wasn't declared the "best player" because of his 20/12 summer league performance, but instead how he dominated NCAA last year. Same reason he was the concensus #1 pick since November.

Our team has talent, but we are no where near a playoff team. You are forgetting that Portland had 2 more lotto seasons, one of which they lucked out and got the #1 pick, before they made the playoffs.

Do we have talent? Ya we do. Do we have enough talent to come close to contending or even making the playoffs? Absolutely not.

This team is still 1-2 more lotto talent away from being a real threat. And that is assuming Evans, Thompson, and Hawes all develop correctly.

We still don't have any strong defensive threats both in the backcourt and frontcourt. We have no leader. We have no go to clutch player. And we have no legit bigman threat. You can't really argue that Evans, Thompson, or Hawes potentially could develop into those one day...potential simply means you haven't done sh*t yet.

[deNIEd]

I know I'm new here and all, but isn't it rediculous to think that our starters points per game means anything? I'm a big kings fan, annd would love playoffs, but to think they will make it because how many points players are projected to score is a little silly isn't it? Also do we really think that we will have 5 starters in double digit scoring? Including JT with 18/10. I have read CDT3 before and know he is a big JT fan, but really 18/10/1? Couldn't even do that in VSL.... Am I crazy for thinking all this?

My projections (and this means nothing towards the win column)
Evans- 15/4/4
Martin- 24/3/4
Nocioni- 12/6
JT- 13/8
Hawes- 15.5/8/2

I like this kid. Welcome.
Very realistic projections, IMO

18/10 is near Yao, Duncan, and Gasol last year.

By stats alone, 18/10 would put JT as the 13th best PF or C in the league (based off of last year)

Come on, lets be a littttle realistic here

[pillwenney]

I know I'm new here and all, but isn't it rediculous to think that our starters points per game means anything? I'm a big kings fan, annd would love playoffs, but to think they will make it because how many points players are projected to score is a little silly isn't it? Also do we really think that we will have 5 starters in double digit scoring? Including JT with 18/10. I have read CDT3 before and know he is a big JT fan, but really 18/10/1? Couldn't even do that in VSL.... Am I crazy for thinking all this?

My projections (and this means nothing towards the win column)
Evans- 15/4/4
Martin- 24/3/4
Nocioni- 12/6
JT- 13/8
Hawes- 15.5/8/2

Yes, yes it is ridiculous.

And welcome.

[KF10]

Welcome sd_kingsfan.

I like your projects, nice. The only thing I would have done differently is bumping Martin's rebounding number to 4 a game. Martin is proven to net at least 4.5 rebounds when healthy.

[sd_kingsfan]

Thanks guys. And I agree with you kingsfan10 about the solid rebounding numbers possible from Martin. The only problem I see is Evans taking many of those rebounds from Martin. Evans will have games where he is 6-7 inches and many lbs bigger than his man. I just think he could get a lot of those long rebounds Martin gets. Man I feel way better now, I felt like I was on a different planet reading that original post on this tread.

[SacKingZZZ]

I know I'm new here and all, but isn't it rediculous to think that our starters points per game means anything? I'm a big kings fan, annd would love playoffs, but to think they will make it because how many points players are projected to score is a little silly isn't it? Also do we really think that we will have 5 starters in double digit scoring? Including JT with 18/10. I have read CDT3 before and know he is a big JT fan, but really 18/10/1? Couldn't even do that in VSL.... Am I crazy for thinking all this?

My projections (and this means nothing towards the win column)
Evans- 15/4/4
Martin- 24/3/4
Nocioni- 12/6
JT- 13/8
Hawes- 15.5/8/2

Maybe not to us winning or not, but it actually does mean something. The better these players perform not only gives us an idea of what they can do, but it also gives the entire NBA an idea of what they can do. That's how players gain value as an asset. If JT comes out next year and puts up 18 and 10 we have a better idea of what we should or could do. At that point his value skyrockets and if the idea is to move our young pieces in an effort to refocus our plans and win now, it all of a sudden opens up the floodgates of possibility. What was a laugher on the trade board and GM'ing wavelengths might become not so unrealistic.

BTW, welcome to the board!

[ICMTM]

My projections (and this means nothing towards the win column)
Evans- 15/4/4
Martin- 24/3/4
Nocioni- 12/6
JT- 13/8
Hawes- 15.5/8/2

Basketball is a sport where someone on every team will get "numbers."

My case in point: Kevin Martin's role increases wins decrease. It's not a knock on Kevin, but a reflection of our overall talent level. Kevin Martin to date is our most talented player, but if we were to make a "championship" roster NOBODY in America that follows the NBA would build a team around Kevin Martin. The reason his role has increased is because we don't have, nor are we retaining, basketball talent that is of upper echelon quality.

My point is that the talent level on this team compared to what it needs to be to be a playoff contender is modest. I don't think the wins will come en mass this season, but what I think you will see is flashes of a good team and more close losses. We will still be in the bottom 3rd of the Western Conference but what you will see is that Sacramento won't be a night off anymore.

[SacKingZZZ]

Even the "upper echelon" young talent doesn't usually come into the NBA guns blazing leading their teams to wins. I think we have a good start with Evans, Martin, and Hawes. I think out of all the players we have now at least two are going to really become studs. My picks are Evans and Hawes.

[Wolfay]

Welcome sd_kingsfan! Such insightful posts right off the bat bodes well for you. "sd"=San Diego or South Dakota?

Excessive optimism will only lead to an ocean of tears, but there is cause for SOME optimism (I'm personally pretty stoked about the upcoming season), but holy cow, to suggest going from 17 wins to playoffs in the span of a single season is a bit on the loony side in my opinion. It'll take a bit more than a rookie and a new coach to make us relevant again, but we do have something to move forward with, and with experience and couple of more pieces, I think you'll start seeing some smiles on the faces of Kings fans again. All you need is patience my friend.

[sd_kingsfan]

Welcome sd_kingsfan! Such insightful posts right off the bat bodes well for you. "sd"=San Diego or South Dakota?

Excessive optimism will only lead to an ocean of tears, but there is cause for SOME optimism (I'm personally pretty stoked about the upcoming season), but holy cow, to suggest going from 17 wins to playoffs in the span of a single season is a bit on the loony side in my opinion. It'll take a bit more than a rookie and a new coach to make us relevant again, but we do have something to move forward with, and with experience and couple of more pieces, I think you'll start seeing some smiles on the faces of Kings fans again. All you need is patience my friend.

San Diego... I agree with you about the optimism, but also think that the kings fan base needs some sort of optimism to hold on to. I'm excited about the upcoming season (not because delusions about playoffs, just seeing how well the pieces fit), but unfortunately will be able to watch few of the games now that I am out of the Sac area. Anyone know how to get the games on the internet?

[Smills91]

Welcome sd_kingsfan! Such insightful posts right off the bat bodes well for you. "sd"=San Diego or South Dakota?

Excessive optimism will only lead to an ocean of tears, but there is cause for SOME optimism (I'm personally pretty stoked about the upcoming season), but holy cow, to suggest going from 17 wins to playoffs in the span of a single season is a bit on the loony side in my opinion. It'll take a bit more than a rookie and a new coach to make us relevant again, but we do have something to move forward with, and with experience and couple of more pieces, I think you'll start seeing some smiles on the faces of Kings fans again. All you need is patience my friend.

San Diego... I agree with you about the optimism, but also think that the kings fan base needs some sort of optimism to hold on to. I'm excited about the upcoming season (not because delusions about playoffs, just seeing how well the pieces fit), but unfortunately will be able to watch few of the games now that I am out of the Sac area. Anyone know how to get the games on the internet?

NBA League Pass is worth EVERY penny if you have the time to watch the vast majority of games.

[pillwenney]

Maybe not to us winning or not, but it actually does mean something. The better these players perform not only gives us an idea of what they can do, but it also gives the entire NBA an idea of what they can do. That's how players gain value as an asset. If JT comes out next year and puts up 18 and 10 we have a better idea of what we should or could do. At that point his value skyrockets and if the idea is to move our young pieces in an effort to refocus our plans and win now, it all of a sudden opens up the floodgates of possibility. What was a laugher on the trade board and GM'ing wavelengths might become not so unrealistic.

BTW, welcome to the board!

By itself, I'd say it means nothing--scoring at least. Reggie Evans could theoretically average 20PPG in this league. He would just have to probably take like 50 shots to get it, and it would be horrible for his team. That's one of my main problems with the original post. It doesn't account for efficiency at all. Lots of starting lineups are going to put up a certain number of points. It's a function of playing a certain amount of minutes.

[BBen]

Outside of Roy, the key to the Blazers' success last year was crashing the boards and leading the league in offensive rebounding. They had Oden, Aldridge and Przybilla all very committed to getting extra possessions. They also had a ridiculous number of high lottery picks and a couple guys that should have been. They earned their reputation as one of the deepest teams in the league.

The Kings got my favorite NCAA player in the draft with Tyreke Evans but I don't see them making the playoffs for a few years unless they really bulk up their front line. I like Thompson and Hawes but I see them being somewhat redundant in that they have very similar (finesse oriented) games. I think the Raptors are a great example of a finesse front line that isn't working out. Look at all the really good teams and they have at least one guy in their starting lineup that makes their living in the paint.

Edit: Portland was indeed the number 4 seed but had the same record as Denver and San Antonio.

[Smills91]

Outside of Roy, the key to the Blazers' success last year was crashing the boards and leading the league in offensive rebounding. They had Oden, Aldridge and Przybilla all very committed to getting extra possessions. They also had a ridiculous number of high lottery picks and a couple guys that should have been. They earned their reputation as one of the deepest teams in the league.

The Kings got my favorite NCAA player in the draft with Tyreke Evans but I don't see them making the playoffs for a few years unless they really bulk up their front line. I like Thompson and Hawes but I see them being somewhat redundant in that they have very similar (finesse oriented) games. I think the Raptors are a great example of a finesse front line that isn't working out. Look at all the really good teams and they have at least one guy in their starting lineup that makes their living in the paint.

Edit: Portland was indeed the number 4 seed but had the same record as Denver and San Antonio.

While both are definitely SKILLED players and both have an element of 'finesse' to their games, I don't think Thompson is finesse-oriented at all. In fact, I'd say he's just the opposite. He's a good complement to Hawes.

[KingInExile]

I've only bothered to skim the first page and all I can say is WOW! Playoffs? Really? Kings more experienced that the Blazers? All I can say is that leafy green substance that smells rather skunky is something that should be avoided.

The Kings are easily a bottom 10 team this next season unless Petrie makes some major surprise moves to magically replace all the young guys on the roster with veterans who are perfect for Westphal's system. The key guys on the roster have less combined years of experience than Tim Duncan has by himself. And nobody on this roster has any experience playing the game Westphal will coach. Not being the worst team in the league again next season will be an improvement. Getting more than 25 wins will be a vast improvement. Making the playoffs is a pipe dream.