2010

czarleon09 · Post #1 » by **czarleon09** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:20 pm

I know everyone has beat this topic to death but I wanted to throw it out there anyway. Which free agent, if any, do you think the Rockets have the best chance of signing after this season>

Ribalding · Post #2 » by **Ribalding** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:22 pm

Their own.

Once more with feeling: Even if T-Mac goes off the books, the Rox won't have any real cap room after this season.

moofs · Post #3 » by **moofs** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:28 pm

(Don't say Yinka Dare... don't say Yinka Dare.)

czarleon09 · Post #4 » by **czarleon09** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:38 pm

The website I was looking at lead me to believe we had some, granted not a lot of cap room for 2010.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm

It does not take into consideration rookie contracts however.

BaYBaller · Post #5 » by **BaYBaller** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:52 pm

Yeah I don't think we technically have cap room to give out a max deal with how the roster is constructed currently, but that doesn't mean we won't be big players in 2010. We have a lot of value contracts that can easily be part of a S&T so I expect a lot of roster movement next offseason. It's doubtful Lebron would even consider HOU so IMO the best we can do is probably somebody like Wade. If not Wade then we're probably looking at Bosh or JJ.

Moreyball · Post #6 » by **Moreyball** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 11:51 pm

Ribalding wrote:Their own.

Once more with feeling: Even if T-Mac goes off the books, the Rox won't have any real cap room after this season.

Rockets currently are sitting around 35 mil next season after reupping all the team options will be around 43 mil and resigning Scola or matching his offer sheet would put them around 50-51 mil which would still be under the projected cap, enabling them to offer a max contract. And with Scola's deal it could come after signing a max deal with using NBA's bird rights.

Not even getting into the whole if Yao retires scenario...

Ribalding · Post #7 » by **Ribalding** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:49 am

Ribalding · Post #8 » by **Ribalding** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:50 am

Moreyball wrote:
Rockets currently are sitting around 35 mil next season after reupping all the team options will be around 43 mil and resigning Scola or matching his offer sheet would put them around 50-51 mil which would still be under the projected cap, enabling them to offer a max contract. And with Scola's deal it could come after signing a max deal with using NBA's bird rights.

Not even getting into the whole if Yao retires scenario...

The 2010-11 cap is expected to be between $50.4 million and $53.6 million

NOW do you understand?

Post #9 » by **Mr. E** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:47 am

We won't have room for a max deal...but I don't think that would be our direction. For the first time since he's been here Morey will have wiggle room at least. Look at what he's done so far with limited room under the cap - pretty impressive!

With the capspace we have we'll take care of our guys who deserve it and we'll be able to look for good value deals in players and have room to move in the trade market.

(Oh, and I still don't think that LeBron, Wade, Bosh, or many of the others whom teams are desperately depending on will be there like they think).

Moreyball · Post #10 » by **Moreyball** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 8:57 am

Ribalding wrote:
Moreyball wrote:
Rockets currently are sitting around 35 mil next season after reupping all the team options will be around 43 mil and resigning Scola or matching his offer sheet would put them around 50-51 mil which would still be under the projected cap, enabling them to offer a max contract. And with Scola's deal it could come after signing a max deal with using NBA's bird rights.

Not even getting into the whole if Yao retires scenario...

The 2010-11 cap is expected to be between $50.4 million and $53.6 million

NOW do you understand?

if there at 50 mil and the cap is 53.6 mil then they'd be under?

Plus like I was saying they could be around 43-44 mil sign someone to a max contract AND STILL resign Scola afterwards, due to the NBA's bird rights (the way orlando was able to sign gortat to the full mle despite being well over the luxury tax)

Ribalding · Post #11 » by **Ribalding** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:22 pm

Moreyball wrote:
if there at 50 mil and the cap is 53.6 mil then they'd be under?

Plus like I was saying they could be around 43-44 mil sign someone to a max contract AND STILL resign Scola afterwards, due to the NBA's bird rights (the way orlando was able to sign gortat to the full mle despite being well over the luxury tax)

Yes, they might be under the cap, by a small margin, if they sign a FA before/instead of re-signing Scola. (Call it 9 mill in wiggle room, MAX.) 3 problems with that:

1. Les Alexander does not want to be in lux tax territory.
2. Do you really think the Rox can sign a tier 1 FA for less than 9 mill? Really?
3. Not that it matters, because....see #1.

moofs · Post #12 » by **moofs** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:49 pm

BaYBaller wrote:Yeah I don't think we technically have cap room to give out a max deal with how the roster is constructed currently, but that doesn't mean we won't be big players in 2010. We have a lot of value contracts that can easily be part of a S&T so I expect a lot of roster movement next offseason. It's doubtful Lebron would even consider HOU so IMO the best we can do is probably somebody like Wade. If not Wade then we're probably looking at Bosh or JJ.

Can't say I'm too crazy about building around 28 y/o Dwyane Wade. He doesn't strike me as being as injury-resilient as Iverson.

BaYBaller · Post #13 » by **BaYBaller** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:57 pm

moofs wrote:
BaYBaller wrote:Yeah I don't think we technically have cap room to give out a max deal with how the roster is constructed currently, but that doesn't mean we won't be big players in 2010. We have a lot of value contracts that can easily be part of a S&T so I expect a lot of roster movement next offseason. It's doubtful Lebron would even consider HOU so IMO the best we can do is probably somebody like Wade. If not Wade then we're probably looking at Bosh or JJ.

Can't say I'm too crazy about building around 28 y/o Dwyane Wade. He doesn't strike me as being as injury-resilient as Iverson.

I'd still take Wade over Bosh or JJ though. Injuries are a concern but personally I think Wade is an ironman considering he's had to carry a very mediocre MIA team for a number of seasons. On a good team he will thrive and reduce the risk of injury significantly.

Ribalding · Post #14 » by **Ribalding** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 8:54 pm

**edit my old post**

The Rox will have a little wiggle room in 2010, somewhere between the salary cap and lux tax territory.

But it won't be enough to sign a tier 1 FA and stay out of the luxury tax, unless the FA in question gives the Rox a HUGE "I want to live in Houston" discount.

(So maybe Morey should go after Lebron. He uses his salary as walking around money, after all. He can afford to play for pocket change.)

moofs · Post #15 » by **moofs** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 10:22 pm

Ribalding wrote:(So maybe Morey should go after Lebron. He uses his salary as walking around money, after all. He can afford to play for pocket change.)

- No state income tax
- Low cost of living
- Oh crap I see why it's a low cost of living
- "Hey this gravy covered fried lard isn't half bad. *ring* Yo Tracy, where you eatin'?"

Moreyball · Post #16 » by **Moreyball** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 11:34 pm

Ribalding wrote:
Moreyball wrote:
if there at 50 mil and the cap is 53.6 mil then they'd be under?

Plus like I was saying they could be around 43-44 mil sign someone to a max contract AND STILL resign Scola afterwards, due to the NBA's bird rights (the way orlando was able to sign gortat to the full mle despite being well over the luxury tax)

Yes, they might be under the cap, by a small margin, if they sign a FA before/instead of re-signing Scola. (Call it 9 mill in wiggle room, MAX.) 3 problems with that:

1. Les Alexander does not want to be in lux tax territory.
2. Do you really think the Rox can sign a tier 1 FA for less than 9 mill? Really?
3. Not that it matters, because....see #1.

1. Alexander has said he'd be willing to go over the luxury in the right situation. This is a guy who spent 6million of his own money in acquiring draft picks and another 3 mil acquiring the rights to derek andersen. plus if he wanted he'd only have to be in the luxury for a season w/ yao's contract expiring after the 2010-11 season and he could even backload a deal.

2. Huh? Never said that and don't see how you got those numbers. the max contract is 25-30% of the salary cap.

langer · Post #17 » by **langer** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 11:43 pm

In Morey, We trust. Somehow, if we could land Wade, that would be the best. Lets trade Yao for Wade. J/k....

tisbee · Post #18 » by **tisbee** » Sat Aug 1, 2009 9:56 pm

Yes,this has been done before,but some basics...
Yao,Battier,Ariza,Landry,Andersen and Brooks have $38,580,000 in salary. The Rockets could renounce their rights to everybody else. BUT,if a team has less than 12 players under contract(signed,draft picks and FAs they have not renounced count towards the 12)there is a roster charge of @ $500,000 for each roster spot that is not filled. 12-6=6,6X $500,000=$3.mil. So the adjusted salary is @$41.5mil.

Assume the economy improves and the Cap in 2010 is $54mil. The max salary off that is $12.5mil. So,yes the Rockets COULD offer a max salary-to someone who does not have a max salary NOW.
You see,under the current CBA,players can get an offer of up to 10% of their last salary.
LeBron,Wade and Bosh could all get an offer of $17,357mil(w/annual raises of over $1.74mil if sign w/own team) vs Rockets top offer of $12.5mil(and annual raises of $1mil). Good luck convincing LeBron,Wade or Bosh to take almost $5mil less up front and another $27mil less over the course of a 5yr contract.(Plus if sign w/own team can get a 6th yr and a $3mil raise for that yr.)
For Joe Johnson the comparable figures are $16.474mil,annual raises of better than $1.65 for an initial loss of almost $4mil and another $22mil less over the remaining 4 yrs.

All of which ignores the Rockets would have ONLY SEVEN players under contract and ONLY $3mil under cap room and vet minimuns to fill out the roster.(The team has to renounce the MLE,the Bi-annual,First Rd picks,and any traded player exceptions to get the cap room.)

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

A far more realistic view of the roster going in to next off-season has:
Budinger and Taylor getting deals similar to Dorsey,w/their 2010 salaries being about $900thou.
Lowry gets a 2yr extension at $3mil/yr w/most of second yr not guaranteed.
Keeps Dorsey,renounces Hayes.
Drafts a First.
11 players w/@$47.5mil in salary.
Team resigns Scola at $6mil/yr,2-3 yrs.
Now at the cap,but still have MLE,BAE and the...
THE TRACY-FILL-IN-THE-BLANK-SALARY.
The Rockets can sign T-Mac to any size contract they need,w/out it being a BYC,and do a sign-n-trade w/him. Throw in a couple of Firsts,and it starts to look attractive to a team faced w/losing a top player for nothing. Best of all,while Tracy has to sign a 3yr deal,none of it has to be guaranteed,so the other team can waive him and T-Mac is an unconditional FA.(Altho prob a couple of mil will be guaranteed that the Rockets would include the cash to buy him out. A little something to help T-Mac agree.)

Or,if Tracy comes back,plays extremely well and does a big "I'm sorry" speech in locker-room-leaked of course-and team makes it to Playoffs,it's very possible the team signs him to a 1 yr extension at $15-16mil(staying just under Lux Tax) and goes into 2011 w/all kinds of cap room and the Tracy FITBS still available.

tisbee · Post #19 » by **tisbee** » Sat Aug 1, 2009 10:03 pm

Moreyball,
Orlando MATCHED Dallas' MLE offer. He was Orlando's restricted FA and teams can bust the cap to sign their own players.
A team's own FA's count towards the salary cap unless renounced.
If say Scola was renounced,the team could only sign him w/any room under salary cap,or the MLE-if that had not been renounced to get under the cap.(IF you're under the cap you don't get the MLE,unless you use it instead of your cap room. If a team is $4mil under the cap they can either use the $4mil or the MLE,not both. If a team is $10mil under the cap the MLE is essentially subtracted from your cap room-or it is renounced and it's no longer available that yr.)

Moreyball · Post #20 » by **Moreyball** » Sun Aug 2, 2009 6:53 am

the rockets will have 12 players under contract next season totaling at 47,962,445 assuming Taylor and Budinger get 900k rookie contracts as you laid out. and lets say they add another player in the 2010-11 draft at 2-3 mil they'd have 13 players under contract for 49.9-50.9mil still being about 4 mil under next years projected cap and about 14.1 under the projected luxury of 65.

this is where im confused. i thought the nba bird rights was an exemption that allowed teams to resign there own players despite being over the cap or even the luxury if they so desire.

scola is the rockets restricted FA similar to what Gortat was with Orlando. meaning they could do what Orlando did sign/trade for a max contract (Vince Carter) and then match an offer sheet?

so if the rockets were under the cap why can't they sign a max contract and then use the bird rights on scola? Orlando was over the luxury when they matched Gortat's contract.