Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown

[LyricalRico]

Also, Rashad McCants is an RFA. He was drafted in 2005 so last season was the final year of his rookie deal.

The Kings did not make him a qualifying offer.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... BA&id=1116

Wow, so he's just dangling out there for anybody to sign. I haven't seen any buzz about him anywhere with any team. I know he's undersized and didn't live up to being a lottery pick, but he can shoot and could fill a gunner role off the bench. Could he possibly be out of the league this fast?

[Ruzious]

Also, Rashad McCants is an RFA. He was drafted in 2005 so last season was the final year of his rookie deal.

The Kings did not make him a qualifying offer.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... BA&id=1116

Wow, so he's just dangling out there for anybody to sign. I haven't seen any buzz about him anywhere with any team. I know he's undersized and didn't live up to being a lottery pick, but he can shoot and could fill a gunner role off the bench. Could he possibly be out of the league this fast?

It's gotta be his tude - which has always been reportedly questionable at best - cuz he played pretty well for the Kings last season. He is only 6'4, but that's not a problem - since he has freakishly long arms and jumps well. He's also a good athlete - he did real well in the pre-draft skills when he came out. He has the physical ability to start in the NBA, but...

[nate33]

Updated to incoporate Gooden, Miller Moon, Barnes, Wilcox, May and Jack.

Nate's Free Agency 2009 Analysis:
These are my estimates of what the current crop of free agents will cost. This is what I think they are worth in a normal market. I suspect that some of the Top Tier free agents will find themselves getting Second Tier money, and some of the Second Tier free agents will find themselves getting Bargain Basement money. There is a lot of supply in the market and not much demand.

Top Tier Free Agents (full MLE or more)
PGs
SGs
Iverson
SFs
Marv.Williams
PFs
Odom
Lee
Cs

Second Tier Free Agents ($2-5M)
PGs
Sessions
C.J. Watson
SGs
McCants
Delfino
SFs
Kleiza
Szczerbiak
PFs
J.Smith
Powe
G.Davis
Diogu
Cs
B.Wallace

Bargain Basement (LLE or less)
PGs
Marbury
SGs
J.Stackhouse
K.Bogans
Pavlovic
SFs
D.Mason
Udoka
Tim Thomas
PFs
S.Williams
Mensah-Bonsu
Skinner
Moore
A.Walker
St.Swift
C.Simmons
Cs
A.Gray
Jason Collins
A.Foyle

Team by Team Analysis:Looking at the financial situations of the teams in the league, we can gauge the probability that they will participate in the free agency market. Here is my analysis:

Won't participate in free agency or have shot their wad: These teams won't be players in the free agency market. That is, they won't commit anything more than vet-minimum money
Charlotte: full roster, luxtax
Chicago: saving for 2010, luxtax
Denver: luxtax, resigning Anderson is all they'll do
Detroit: used up cap room already
Indiana: luxtax
Memphis: used up cap room in Randolph trade
Miami: saving for 2010
Milwaukee: strapped for cash but will be $5M under luxtax if they cut Bowen. Highly doubtful they'll spend it after sacrificing RJeff in a salary dump.
Minnesota: $13M in luxtax room but might just wait until 2010. They lost $19M last year.
New Orleans: luxtax
Orlando: Payroll is astronomical after matching Gortat and signing Bass and Barnes. No MLE left.
Phoenix: luxtax
Portland: Signed Miller with cap room.
San Antonio: Used up MLE on McDyess.
Utah: luxtax. Trying to dump Boozer in order to retain Millsap.

Might participate in free agency:
Boston: Used MLE on Rasheed. Will they also resign both Powe and Big Baby?
Golden State: cap situation is tight with a lot of long term contracts. May have enough luxtax room for one Second Tier free agent
Houston: Ariza signing was made using injury exemption. Still have the MLE available but may choose not to spend it in order to have enough 2010 cap room for a max free agent.
LA Clippers: Plenty of luxtax room but a cheap franchise.
LA Lakers: Used MLE on Artest. If Odom leaves, they'll need another big but have only the LLE available. They'll probably grab a guy like Joe Smith
New Jersey: have enough room for two max contracts in 2010, but may decide to buy some bargains this year and save only enough for one max contract
New York: have enough room for one max contract plus another $8M or so next year. May spend some of that $8M this year. Resigned Nate for one year so will abandon attempt to get Sessions.
Oklahoma City: Have $8M in cap space but may be better off using it to acquire picks and other assets from teams struggling to get under the luxtax.
Sacramento: Just signed Sean May. They still have somewhere between $4-6M in cap room
Toronto: Turkaglu deal was actually a trade, leaving them with cap room. They used most of their MLE on Jarrett Jack. Used the LLE on Rasho. Have less than $2M of MLE left. Reportedly eyeing Delfino

Probable participants in free agency:
Atlanta: No cap space due to holds on Childress and M.Williams. Already resigned Bibby and Zaza. Will probably resign Williams. Have the MLE available.
Cleveland: Spent a lot of money so far on Shaq and Varajeo. They used part of the MLE on Parker, leaving $3.2M left. They also signed Moon for an undisclosed amount of money (did they use the LLE or the rest of their MLE?). Been rumored to be after May and Powe so they still have some money left and are apparently willing to use it.
Dallas: Used MLE on a 1-year deal for Gooden. Still have LLE available.
Philadelphia: $9M in luxtax room but needs a PG. Miller rejected their offer. They'll probably go after Sessions with the MLE

Comments
Odom, Lee, Marvin Williams and Iverson are the only big names left out there. Somebody will probably spend a decent chunk of money on Sessions and Big Baby as well. After that, it's nothing but LLE offers and vet minimum offers. Somebody is going to get a guy like Kleiza, Powe or Joe Smith at a great price.

The Marvin Williams situation is interesting. Atlanta may have lucked out big time by being patient. It appears that nobody is going to throw even MLE money his way. Atlanta might ultimately lock him up for pretty darn cheap. Williams is a solid player.

I'd really like to see us throw a backloaded, incentive laden contract to Leon Powe. If we can construct a contract that pays him a very low salary this year and then balloons considerably thereafter, it might prove to be a shrewd move.

[LyricalRico]

Wow, Cleveland lost out on yet another free agent forward that they wanted (Warrick just agreed with the Bucks). It's great seeing them get rebuffed time after time.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Wow, Cleveland lost out on yet another free agent forward that they wanted (Warrick just agreed with the Bucks). It's great seeing them get rebuffed time after time.

Has to be real steam about LeBron bolting else where

[fishercob]

Wow, Cleveland lost out on yet another free agent forward that they wanted (Warrick just agreed with the Bucks). It's great seeing them get rebuffed time after time.

Has to be real steam about LeBron bolting else where

Yep. Nothing they've done this summer gives any indication that he's decided to stay. Their biggest addition (Shaq) is an expiring himself. Parker's a nice piece, but he's old and hardly reason stay or go. And they gave up a ton of cash to keep Varajeo.

I suppose they could turn around and trade one of their massive expirings at the deadline for another piece, but they haven't done anything yet that makes me think that he's defnitely not leaving.

[LyricalRico]

And they gave up a ton of cash to keep Varajeo.

I'd forgotten about that. Didn't he get like $50-60M? That makes this offseason for them even funnier!



But you're right that they can still move Ilgauskas for another piece (and even Shaq for that matter). I still think Andrei Kirilenko would be a good fit in Cleveland as a guy who can score a bit and also matchup with guys like KG, Bosh, and Rashard Lewis.

[Dat2U]

Wow, Cleveland lost out on yet another free agent forward that they wanted (Warrick just agreed with the Bucks). It's great seeing them get rebuffed time after time.

Yeah, but it's not about Warrick not wanting to go to Cleveland b/c LeBron might be leaving soon. It's the fact he signs with Milwaukee and immediately becomes their best forward on that roster. The minutes and shots should be plentiful for him there, that wouldn't have been the case in Cleveland where he'd likely be a backup to Varejao.

Actually its a very good signing for Milwaukee as he represents a solid replacement to Villanueva, at a fraction of the cost. Warrick is on my list of potential breakout players this year simply b/c Milwaukee has so little talent and skill after Bogut & Redd.

[verbal8]

Wow, Cleveland lost out on yet another free agent forward that they wanted (Warrick just agreed with the Bucks). It's great seeing them get rebuffed time after time.

Yeah, but it's not about Warrick not wanting to go to Cleveland b/c LeBron might be leaving soon. It's the fact he signs with Milwaukee and immediately becomes their best forward on that roster. The minutes and shots should be plentiful for him there, that wouldn't have been the case in Cleveland where he'd likely be a backup to Varejao.

Actually its a very good signing for Milwaukee as he represents a solid replacement to Villanueva, at a fraction of the cost. Warrick is on my list of potential breakout players this year simply b/c Milwaukee has so little talent and skill after Bogut & Redd.

Also Redd and Bogut have had trouble staying healthy.

[LyricalRico]

Boston just picked up Shelden Williams so I guess that means Powe will definitely be going elsewhere. I hope he doesn't go to Cleveland cuz he would help them a lot if he's healthy.

As of now, if Sessions goes to NY and Delfino stays overseas, these are the only other names that I'm curious to see where they end up:

Allen Iverson - I still think he ends up in Charlotte
David Lee - Probably stays in NY for the one year tender
Leon Powe - The big question is will he be healthy
Glen Davis - Won't get as much as I thought he would initially get
Wally Sczerbiak - Can still help a contender
Pops Mensah-Bonsu - Hoping a local guy gets his chance

[nate33]

Boston just picked up Shelden Williams so I guess that means Powe will definitely be going elsewhere. I hope he doesn't go to Cleveland cuz he would help them a lot if he's healthy.

As of now, if Sessions goes to NY and Delfino stays overseas, these are the only other names that I'm curious to see where they end up:

Allen Iverson - I still think he ends up in Charlotte
David Lee - Probably stays in NY for the one year tender
Leon Powe - The big question is will he be healthy
Glen Davis - Won't get as much as I thought he would initially get
Wally Sczerbiak - Can still help a contender
Pops Mensah-Bonsu - Hoping a local guy gets his chance

There's also Linus Kleiza.

Did Joe Smith sign anywhere yet?

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Wally Sczerbiak, are you serious? What would he contribute? That dude is doner than done.

[miller31time]

Wally Sczerbiak, are you serious? What would he contribute? That dude is doner than done.

What Rico meant to say is that Szczerbiak would help whatever contending team the team he's on is playing.

[LyricalRico]

Wally Sczerbiak, are you serious? What would he contribute? That dude is doner than done.

I disagree. He's a big SF (6'8, 245) that can still hit from the outside and showed in Cleveland that he can fit into a team defensive scheme. Granted, he's not a starter or even a good 6th man at this point in his career. But on a good team that needs 10-15 mpg at SF, he's perfect IMO. Look for Denver to offer him something close to the LLE if they don't re-sign Klieza. I could also see Atlanta interested. And don't count out the Spurs or Celtics, either (depending on what happens with their other players). Charlotte isn't a good team but they could be interested also.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

Wally Sczerbiak, are you serious? What would he contribute? That dude is doner than done.

I disagree. He's a big SF (6'8, 245) that can still hit from the outside and showed in Cleveland that he can fit into a team defensive scheme. Granted, he's not a starter or even a good 6th man at this point in his career. But on a good team that needs 10-15 mpg at SF, he's perfect IMO. Look for Denver to offer him something close to the LLE if they don't re-sign Klieza. I could also see Atlanta interested. And don't count out the Spurs or Celtics, either (depending on what happens with their other players). Charlotte isn't a good team but they could be interested also.

I did not see him make one jumpshot during the entire playoffs, maybe I'm hallucinating, let me check...

Dude, he went 2-12 from 3 pt range in 14 games!!! What do you mean he can still hit from outside?!?!?! Dude is DONE!!!! I see he did hit for 41% during the season, but do you want that big of a choker on your team?

[verbal8]

Wally Sczerbiak, are you serious? What would he contribute? That dude is doner than done.

I disagree. He's a big SF (6'8, 245) that can still hit from the outside and showed in Cleveland that he can fit into a team defensive scheme. Granted, he's not a starter or even a good 6th man at this point in his career. But on a good team that needs 10-15 mpg at SF, he's perfect IMO. Look for Denver to offer him something close to the LLE if they don't re-sign Klieza. I could also see Atlanta interested. And don't count out the Spurs or Celtics, either (depending on what happens with their other players). Charlotte isn't a good team but they could be interested also.

I did not see him make one jumpshot during the entire playoffs, maybe I'm hallucinating, let me check...

Dude, he went 2-12 from 3 pt range in 14 games!!! What do you mean he can still hit from outside?!?!?! Dude is DONE!!!! I see he did hit for 41% during the season, but do you want that big of a choker on your team?

Szerbiak had a decent regular season playing 20 MPG. I think he can find a job for the vet minimum. I think a lot of teams would much rather have him than say Mike James, who shows more evidence of being done. I think his role on a good team is to give them a chance to rest the starters during garbage time in the regular season.

[kane2021]

I thought this was nate robinson! great post