Stats on Wallace vs. Perkins for the starting spot

[rogeber]

Thought I'd pass this around for anyone who's interested. Using per-48-minutes numbers, Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins come out as very different players. Here's the article, with charts: http://howtowatchsports.com/2009/08/wal ... er-graphs/

In the end it probably doesn't matter who starts, since they'll split time... but they'll be giving pretty seriously different looks to opponents.

In the interest of full disclosure, I wrote the article... I'd love to hear comments.

[ParticleMan]

um, Perk starts. end of story.

who finishes is another question, but Perk definitely starts.

[greenbeans]

Nice read, good job, I like the effort you put into it, that's rare these days.
But I think the only relevant stats here are:
Time w/ Celtics and rings w/ Celtics.
Also, Perk is a young guy who is open to mental lapses, so I think they keep him in the starting lineup for his confidences sake.

[celtics_kg5]

I think Sheed has not interest in the starting role,which Perkins needs to get a bigger contract in a couple of years. Sheed hope to close games and be here. When PJ was a Celt he played finals minutes and I think Perk will be in the same position with Sheed (without comparison between Sheed a PJ anyway).

[dsorc]

Perkins will start and Sheed will close. This way you can use Perkins to set the tone earlier physically in the paint then use Sheed as a change of pace and focus of the second unit offensively. Sheed closes out games because at the end of games shooting his ability to spread the floor is more valuable. as for the middle of the game, it will probably be a mix and match depending on matchups, fouls and who's hot. Overall, I expect them to be getting about the same amount of minutes.

[Rocky5000]

What the analysis doesn't show is the interaction effects of putting Wallace or Perkins on the floor. That is what I think will determine what lineup works best. How does having a 3 point shooting center help the scoring of Rondo, Ray, Paul, Daniels, Tony, etc. ? Will Perk's lost rebounds from Sheed playing far from the basket be made up by increased rebounding from the guards and forwards. Will KG and Sheed when playing together provide an adequate low post presence?

Also it'd be interesting to see a spider graph of Sheed and Perkins playing together. Will we be just as good with KG out of the game?

[rogeber]

Also it'd be interesting to see a spider graph of Sheed and Perkins playing together. Will we be just as good with KG out of the game?

That'd be interesting. I'm at work right now, but I can crunch it tonight. We know right off that scoring will be down, but I'm not sure how KG's defensive statistics match up with Sheed without looking.

I know having Rasheed sure could have helped in the playoffs, with KG out...

[cavsfan_osiris]

perk starts, thread ends

[cavsfan_osiris]

perk starts, thread ends

If this was 4-5 years then Sheed starts.

[chas0x01]

I like bench production with House, MD, and Sheed coming off the bench. Those are 3 nice scorers, and some good defense to boot.

[threrf23]

Well, if Perk continues to start, I say we need Doc to let off the whole inside/outside thing at PF/C. We need KG going to work in the low post more often. If Sheed isn't used to assist with that, he'll be wasted to some extent.

I tend to be in favor of Sheed getting a lot of minutes with the first unit, if he is not starting. Both Sheed and Perk are probably equal on the defensive end. On the offensive end, Perk is a liability against first stringers but serviceable against second-stringers. Sheed will contribute solidly against first or second stringers as long as he plays alongside other first stringers who can get him open looks and occasional one-one's in the low post. He also creates match-up problems which are real useful for us against first stringers but don't help much against second stringers.

I like bench production with House, MD, and Sheed coming off the bench. Those are 3 nice scorers, and some good defense to boot.

MD is less of a scorer than Tony Allen. Probably more willing/able to play within a team concept, not as TO prone. But we shouldn't get our hopes too muchas he's still a little TO prone, has always been relatively inefficient, and has often been criticized due to a purportedly low bball IQ. Sheed & House are solid guys but they are best used playing off of teammates.

[celticfan42487]

I think this is one of the biggest non-stories.

Perkins and that starting 5's chemistry is something you never mess with.

Then you add Perk's foul trouble in the playoffs with Sheed needed time to "cool off" on the refs and we should just be happy if we can keep 1 of them on the floor at all times!

[cedric76]

how many minutes will perk get this season?

do u see his minutes dropping?

[AlCelticFan]

I see him getting the same minutes, and Rasheed getting all the backup minutes, while playing in replace of Perk or Garnett enough to balance out the minutes between the three.

[Tricky Ricky]

We need Sheed off the bench, I think Sheed will play the 4th quarter mins though

[greenmachine_2849]

how many minutes will perk get this season?

do u see his minutes dropping?

I would think so. He averaged 28 mpg in the first three months of the season, and only saw his minutes get up into the 30s after Garnett went down for the season. Assuming a moderately healthy Garnett, as well as the addition of Wallace (and the re-signing of Davis), I don't see any need to play an injury-prone player 30+ minutes per game with the depth we should have.

My guess for minutes distribution at PF/C:

Garnett: 28 (all at PF)
Perkins: 27 (all at center)
Wallace: 26 (21 at center, 5 at PF)
Davis: 15 (all at PF)

[Ben-N1ce]

Perk is the starter and Sheed is the closer.

[sully00]

While how guys play together will impact it, I would expect that Doc will work his rotations so that he has one of Garnett and Sheed on the floor as often as possible with them closing the games out together.

I would expect the regular rotation to be Sheed for KG then Baby for Perk and then KG back in for Baby to close the half with Wallace. I also think that Boston will look to limit KG's mins early on in the season especially first half mins.

Doc also now has the luxury to do different things at the end based on how guys are playing. Perk traditionally isn't much of an offensive option but on those nights he is feelling it maybe he goes with him. I don't think Doc is going to be anywhere near as worried about getting guys 30 mpg as the people on this board are I think if you told him he would have enough bigs that could play that none ever had to play 30 mpg he would be fine it.

[theman]

While how guys play together will impact it, I would expect that Doc will work his rotations so that he has one of Garnett and Sheed on the floor as often as possible with them closing the games out together.

I would expect the regular rotation to be Sheed for KG then Baby for Perk and then KG back in for Baby to close the half with Wallace. I also think that Boston will look to limit KG's mins early on in the season especially first half mins.

Doc also now has the luxury to do different things at the end based on how guys are playing. Perk traditionally isn't much of an offensive option but on those nights he is feelling it maybe he goes with him. I don't think Doc is going to be anywhere near as worried about getting guys 30 mpg as the people on this board are I think if you told him he would have enough bigs that could play that none ever had to play 30 mpg he would be fine it.

I think Sheed will come in for KG. When KG reenters the game Perkins sits and Rasheed moves to the five.

As for the end of games it depends on if the Celtics are up or not. With a two point lead, Perkins is in for defense. If the C's are down by three you better believe Sheed is out there.