State of 'the Franchise'

[babyjax13]

All-right, the off season is still going on, but a lot of our questions have been answered, and new ones have come up. I am going to try and give my views on most of these issues, and see what other fans views are on the same subjects.

I. Do we have a "franchise player"

I think that the answer to this question is a lot less clear than people may think it is. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are certainly both superstars, and Deron just might be the best point guard in the NBA - but by definition a "franchise player" must be a player of a caliber of which if you build around him he can lead your team to a championship - not just to the finals. Therefor, I ask the question, who was the last point guard that lead their team to a championship? The answer - Magic Johnson in the 86-87 season, and 87-88 season. There are several point guards that have lead their teams to the finals, Jason Kidd did it several times in the early 2000s, Gary Payton did it in 1996 - but neither were good enough to win despite great supporting casts.

Conceivably Deron has to be able to play just as well as Magic Johnson in order to win a championship. I don't think he will be that good.

II. Do we have a 2nd "star" player?

The answer to this last year was an emphatic yes with our core of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams - but this year it looks like Carlos is on his way out, and suddenly we have to wait for one of three candidates to fill his spot - Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, and Mehmot Okur. All of them have been, or have the potential to be players selected for the all-star game, but I don't think any of them can be lumped into the 2nd tier of star players that Carlos Boozer finds himself in. I think that two of these players are in what I would consider the 3rd tier - the best of the best in complimentary players (AK, Okur) - and Millsap will soon enter into that category.

III. Do we have the necessary 'role-players' to win a championship?

I think that at the beginning of last season everyone thought that we did have the necessary depth to compete for a championship - and we still have excellent role players - but with the possibility of Boozer leaving, the decline of Harpring, and the promotion of Paul Millsap we aren't quite there yet. I think that to prove us I am going to compare our bench to this year's Dallas Mavericks - a team arguably in the same position as us.

Dallas vs Utah:
JJ Barea - Ronnie Price
Advantage - Dallas

Erick Dampier - Kosta Koufos
Advantage - Dallas, for now

Drew Gooden - Andrei Kirilenko
Advantage - Utah

Jason Terry - Kyle Korver
Advantage - Dallas

Tim Thomas - CJ Miles
Advantage - They both suck, but Utah

Kyrylo Fesenko - Ryan Hollins
Advantage - Dallas

After looking at that it is not to promising for our Utah Jazz.

IV. New era, the third star.

Since Boston's acquisition of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett there have been teams looking to have a tandem of three star players, or a "big-three". LA did not have any success either until they had a similarly talented beg three of Kobe, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom - with Ron Artest you could even call it a "Big Four". Orlando is now in a similar situation with Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, and Rashard Lewis. It can be argued though that the originators of the big three in this era are the San Antonio Spurs when they made their wonderful championship runs with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.

When we first got Carlos Boozer (mostly during 06-07) it looked like we were going to have the same type of system going with Andrei Kirilenko, Deron Williams, and Booz. What happened? Well, AK fell of the face of the earth, Carlos showed he has big flaws in his defensive game that a guy like Mehmot Okur can't make up for, and Deron was made to lead this team. That is not to undermine Carlos' talent - with a defensive force like Marcus Camby he wouldn't be such a liability - but Okur is also a great complimentary piece because of his shooting.

V. So who do we build around?

The obvious answer here is Deron Williams, but after that the complimentary pieces we have in place are somewhat questionable. I think it is time we ask ourselves which of our players are over-rated around the NBA, and which are undervalued. Using that system I think we can decide who should stay, and who could get us the pieces to become a championship contender.

Group A - Untouchable
Deron Williams ~ The best point guard in the NBA not named Chris Paul. Tough, gritty, a true competitor through and through.

Kosta Koufos ~ Prospects are always undervalued, and Kosta is one of the best in the NBA. Extremely long, gifted shot-blocker and scorer - hits open jump shots unlike most players his size.

Group B - On their way out
Carlos Boozer - Gifted scorer, extremely strong, great rebounder. Finishes with right or left hand and can get to the basket easily. Jumper is ugly but effective - if he is hitting it he becomes too complacent. Does not box-out well but still gets rebounds, foul prone, doesn't block shots.

Group C - Over-valued (trade pieces)
Ronnie Brewer ~ Fantastic role player, a true small forward. Capitalizes on attention payed to interior scorers. Extremely athletic, one of the better wing-defenders in the NBA. Relies too much on his athleticism, undersized, can't shoot.

Paul Millsap ~ Ultimate hustle player. Great defender against smaller power forwards - outmatched physically against larger ones but can still hold his position. Won't alter many shots - but if your center can Millsap will clean up after him and get the loose rebounds.

CJ Miles ~ Takes people one-on-one often and can occasionally capitalize. Above-average shooter but very streaky. Supreme athlete. Not efficient - defense is based on the challenge, doesn't always give 100%.

Group D - Under-rated (won't get the value they deserve)
Ronnie Price ~ Monster athlete, hustle player, extremely efficient when given minutes. Can play 1 or 2 guard despite his height. One of the fastest players in the NBA. Needs to work on being a 'floor-general', occasionally takes too many risks on defense. Doesn't hit enough threes despite nice form.

Eric Maynor ~ Gifted shooter, was a leader on the college level. Somewhat of an unknown at this point.

Andrei Kirilenko ~ Extremely long, good athleticism. Blocks shots at an alarming rate when he plays power forward. Best weak-side defender in NBA history. Can create a pass out of thin air, but can become turnover prone. Terrible 3-point shooter, below average jump-shooter for a small forward, OK for a power forward. Not enough muscle.

Kyle Korver ~ Better-than-advertised defender. Fantastic free-throw shooter, above average from three-point land. Very good passer, makes smart decisions, very high basketball IQ.

Kyrylo Fessenko ~ Fantastic size - moves well for his bulk. Can hit three point shots if he has to, good defender. Low basketball IQ and questionable motivation. Funniest player on the team (has to count for something).

Mehmot Okur ~ Best shooting big-man in the NBA, as good as Dirk at three-point shooting. Great size for power-forward position. Competes but is still inconsistent. Can drop 40 one night and 8 the next. Makes space for interior players to work.

I think that in order to become a championship contender we have to be able to do a couple of things

I. Turn 2 or more of our "over-rated" players into star players (preferably a center, or shot-blocking power forward)
II. Get a good package for Boozer (preferably including a good shooter).
III. Draft smart with the New York pick, or trade it for a "proven" star player.

[Fido]

I'm not sure what message you are going for here but this is all over the map. For example, Deron Williams isn't a franchise player (and no PG has since Magic), but he is the obvious answer for who we have to build the team around.
We have no 2nd or 3rd star, and a subpar bench. Yet in the player evaluations:
- Koufos is one of the best prospects in the NBA and is an "Untouchable"
- CJ takes players 1 on 1 often and occasionally capitalizes. That reads as he fails most of the time. Yet he is an above average shooter.
- Ronnie Price is extremely efficient when given minutes???????
- AK "Blocks shots at an alarming rate when he plays power forward. Best weak-side defender in NBA history." ????????

And finally what we have to do to be a championship contender is to:
I. Turn Millsap, Brewer, and Miles into star players through trade??????How would you propose this be done?
II. Get a good package for Boozer preferably including a good shooter????--do you think such a thing is out there?
III. Draft smart with the New York pick, or trade it for a "proven" star player. I don't know the last time a 1st round pick was traded for a "proven" star player but I'd say drafting smart is a "smart" thing to do.

What questions were answered this offseason? Are these new questions resulting from bringing back the "opt in" crew from last year?

[MeestR]

you forgot isaiah thomas, chauncy billups, and tony parker as franchise pg's to lead team to the 'ship since magic. other than those teams, other winners had franchise sg's.(jordan, drexler, kobe, pierce/allen) so i have to disagree with your point that a pg is a risky piece to build around. the guard position is a very good piece to have a "franchise player" occupying.

other than that, a very interesting post.

[babyjax13]

Maybe it does read as all over the map - I guess what I am trying to get at is that the team is not ready to compete yet. Deron's a great player, and I think that if he were in the role of - say, Tony Parker, where he has a go to guy and great role players around him then we will be a "contender". As for Koufos, right now we don't know what he will become - but I have a feeling he will be one of the centerpieces of this team, and he is someone that we should keep. When Millsap was making the minimum I would have placed him in the same tier - not because he is already a star, but because he has the potential to be something great and it is better to wait and see what that is rather than sell low and see who we can get.

As for the lottery pick, you only have to go back to 2007 when Boston trade the 5th pick in the draft (Jeff Green) and spare parts for Ray Allen. Can we do that with New York's pick? I don't think so, but if we do keep it I don't like the idea of taking someone 10 spots higher than they ought to go - even if it does occasionally work out (see Jason Thompson). And CJ does fail most of the time in one-on-one situations, he is just not an efficient player. Can he develop? Yes, but I think his game is always going to have major flaws. As for Ronnie Price, I still like the guy, I think he deserves minutes, and you can't argue with the job he did when Deron was injured (8p 2r 4a 41% fg, 38% 3-pt 94% 3-pt, 17 starts).

As for getting a good shooter for Boozer, that should be pretty easy - 72 players made 90 3-pt shots or more, and 49 shot 40% or better. I think that a trade with Boozer just needs to bring back one of those players that did that. Some players included in that list are Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, Steve Novak, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Kelenna Azubuike. I am not saying that one of those players are the final step, but having one would certainly be a plus. And we certainly can get a "star" for a package including - say - Brewer and Millsap. Just look at what guys like Jason Richardson, Pau Gasol, and Kevin Garnett were traded for. You can say that all of them were unique situations - but it seems to happen over and over again.

you forgot isaiah thomas, chauncy billups, and tony parker as franchise pg's to lead team to the 'ship since magic. other than those teams, other winners had franchise sg's.(jordan, drexler, kobe, pierce/allen) so i have to disagree with your point that a pg is a risky piece to build around. the guard position is a very good piece to have a "franchise player" occupying.

other than that, a very interesting post.

I would argue that Billups was a unique situation - they were in an extremely weak eastern conference - then got in a matchup that they could capitalize on (just like when Houston almost took down LA, or when Atlanta to Boston to 7 games). Parker had Duncan, he didn't lead his team - he was their second super-star.

[nghedman]

I have to admit, your post seemed to be wondering to me too. However I liked it. It gives me something to read.

Your whole post being around whether the Jazz can compete and play at the "next" level with the players they have. It seemed you were down on Boozer and evaluated the team as a whole and other players as if he were gone. But the simple fact is he isn't. And the front office said they aren't going to give him away because he wants it. No other team is out there or player for that matter that would trade for Boozer and his top dollar contract. Looks like to me alot of your post (hate to say it) is based on something that hasn't and isn't going to happen. My bet right now is that Boozer stays with the Jazz this year.

This very much increases our bench strength. You need to watch the Jazz play again. This offseason you seem to forget how good they really are.

In the Jazz thread I can't believe you didn't mention the best point guard of all time taking their team to the finals (but not winning ) twice.... John Stockton.

[DelaneyRudd]

In order to get that top 5 type superstar the Jazz will need to be really lucky. It is certainly possible thanks to Isiah though.